Hurricane Irma

LesBaker · Sep 5, 2017

My brother works at NOAA and as a matter of fact does weather modeling as part of his job.

He just sent this text. Several family members and I are in a group text.

He said:
Lots of spread in the model guidance of course but the latest idea is that Irma will scrape up the east coast of FL then hit SC. But several tracks take it to the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico. Irma is a catogory 5 and will be in a favorable area for awhile. Obviously this is a dangerous storm.

RhodyRams · Sep 5, 2017

dont look now but Tropical Storm Jose is just a few days behind Irma and following her path

Mackeyser · Sep 5, 2017

Yeah. I don't understand the models. They keep saying the storm is gonna head north, but maybe someone should tell Irma because she doesn't seem to interested in heading north.

But yeah, we're probably gonna pack our bug out bags tonight and make the decision in the morning.

Gusts of 225mph.... Irma's not fooling around.

….. · Sep 5, 2017

You guys be safe. My brother was pulled from his place in Houston in chest deep water. Hope for all of you that you can avoid any personal loss and more importantly, find safe haven.

Angry Ram · Sep 5, 2017

Is South Florida flood prone like Houston is? Obviously the combo of that plus Harvey lingering was a bitch.

Hopefully this storm doesn't linger, and once it hit land loses its power quickly.

bnw · Sep 5, 2017

Angry Ram said:
Is South Florida flood prone like Houston is? Obviously the combo of that plus Harvey lingering was a bitch.

Hopefully this storm doesn't linger, and once it hit land loses its power quickly.

Yes it is flood prone. It is also the Everglades.

-X- · Sep 5, 2017

Angry Ram said:
Is South Florida flood prone like Houston is?

Very much so, yes.
Not so much the further inland you get, but the coast will get hammered.

LesBaker · Sep 5, 2017

Florida is a pancake, so it spreads the water out rather than having high and low spots and in this area there are canals an channels that can disperse water which helps. A portion of Houston's problem was the levee failing too.

Stores are already gouging, so are gas stations. People will never fail to disappoint me.

I'm good to go if I stay or leave. I have shit ready to "grab and go" if I have to leave town.

bnw · Sep 5, 2017

LesBaker said:
Florida is a pancake, so it spreads the water out rather than having high and low spots and in this area there are canals an channels that can disperse water which helps. A portion of Houston's problem was the levee failing too.

Stores are already gouging, so are gas stations. People will never fail to disappoint me.

I'm good to go if I stay or leave. I have crap ready to "grab and go" if I have to leave town.

Might want to get a head start on the road out of town. Easier to turn around and go back if you have to than getting mired in traffic later. Regardless good luck and stay safe.

Mackeyser · Sep 5, 2017

NOAA projection as of 8pm.

If we leave, it'll probably be around 2am Friday morning, but we'll see. Won't be able to know until the earliest Thursday night unless Irma starts turning early...

Force16X · Sep 5, 2017

there's a 10 second intro before the weather report. this guy is pretty good and backs up his theoretical weather forecast with real information. as much as one can with the weather. as i have friends in florida, i hope he's right.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJnWu1vbmFI

Mackeyser · Sep 5, 2017

I'd feel bad for NC, I really would, but since we don't seem to have a choice of Irma hitting no one, I selfishly hope it doesn't hit us.

Then again, who knows?

Btw, that ventusky site is great for graphics. It's not super accurate on the current storm (on the site, it has the storm having less than 100mph than it has. It barely has the storm as a hurricane even though we know from Hurricane Hunters, the sustained wind speed is upwards of 180+mph)

Still, to explain to my non-technical people, the visuals are hard to beat.

Angry Ram · Sep 6, 2017

bnw said:
Yes it is flood prone. It is also the Everglades.

Yeesh, I forgot about that and all the swamps. Think of the mosquitoes after it's over!

-X- said:
Very much so, yes.
Not so much the further inland you get, but the coast will get hammered.

Well, hopefully there is no reservoirs that could be breached, or dams that need to release water that floods to prevent flooding.

Farr Be It · Sep 6, 2017

LesBaker said:
My brother works at NOAA and as a matter of fact does weather modeling as part of his job.

He just sent this text. Several family members and I are in a group text.

He said:
Lots of spread in the model guidance of course but the latest idea is that Irma will scrape up the east coast of FL then hit SC. But several tracks take it to the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico. Irma is a catogory 5 and will be in a favorable area for awhile. Obviously this is a dangerous storm.

We are all pulling for you guys, and praying for your safety, and your homes, @LesBaker @Selassie I and all of your guys! Just in case, my boys are priming up the helos, and ready to roll!

LesBaker · Sep 6, 2017

Force16X said:
there's a 10 second intro before the weather report. this guy is pretty good and backs up his theoretical weather forecast with real information. as much as one can with the weather. as i have friends in florida, i hope he's right.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJnWu1vbmFI

That's what some people in NOAA think...........

Funny thing is I have a neighbor that is leaving today to go to NC because she has family there. I showed her the text from my brother and told her what he does. She said oh well at least if it hits there I'll be with family.

LesBaker · Sep 6, 2017

Well @Mackeyser it looks like we are going to be spared the full fury but will get 40-60 MPH winds and a bunch of rain.

My brother/NOAA guys got it right and now pretty much all the models show Irma going to the Carolinas.

The bad news for Florida is that he said the storm is going to be a direct hit on Miami, like dead center, then it will go north. The water is warm so it may be a very strong CAT 4 when it hits. It's not likely to sustain the power it has now which is good, it could happen but it's not "likely", let's hope not!

How much difference is there between a strong 5 and a strong 4 is kinda significant. I'm hoping for the best for everyone over there on the other coast and in the Carolinas.

All the people on those islands in the Caribbean are going to have a huge hurdle to overcome. This is a life altering event for so many people, it's sad. I saw a short video taken in St. Maarten and the USVI and it's horrible.

To give people perspective you all remember Andrew and what it did to the east coast of Florida. Irma is hitting these islands with more wind speed than Andrew hit Florida with, and certainly buildings aren't built as well there versus here, it must be just blowing things apart I'm sure.

SteezyEndo · Sep 6, 2017

LesBaker said:
Well @Mackeyser it looks like we are going to be spared the full fury but will get 40-60 MPH winds and a bunch of rain.

My brother/NOAA guys got it right and now pretty much all the models show Irma going to the Carolinas.

The bad news for Florida is that he said the storm is going to be a direct hit on Miami, like dead center, then it will go north. The water is warm so it may be a very strong CAT 4 when it hits. It's not likely to sustain the power it has now which is good, it could happen but it's not "likely", let's hope not!

How much difference is there between a strong 5 and a strong 4 is kinda significant. I'm hoping for the best for everyone over there on the other coast and in the Carolinas.

All the people on those islands in the Caribbean are going to have a huge hurdle to overcome. This is a life altering event for so many people, it's sad. I saw a short video taken in St. Maarten and the USVI and it's horrible.

To give people perspective you all remember Andrew and what it did to the east coast of Florida. Irma is hitting these islands with more wind speed than Andrew hit Florida with, and certainly buildings aren't built as well there versus here, it must be just blowing things apart I'm sure.

Yeah I saw that drift north. Jose looks like its coming in high, but not officially a hurricane yet. Stay safe out there guys...

Mackeyser · Sep 6, 2017

Yep, NOAA got it right. Glad we don't have to evacuate because the pic of the traffic jam on CNN's website is about 1mile from my house.

Have a bad feeling about Miami...

bnw · Sep 6, 2017

Mackeyser said:
Yep, NOAA got it right. Glad we don't have to evacuate because the pic of the traffic jam on CNN's website is about 1mile from my house.

Have a bad feeling about Miami...

and the Keys.....

Mackeyser · Sep 6, 2017

Barbuda has gotten freakin hammered.

909 mb and speeds sustained of 185mph.

Irma isn't taking no for an answer when she's askin folks to dance...damn.

Hurricane Irma

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