Hurricane Irma

[Mackeyser]

This is gonna be a big one, folks. It went from a tropical storm to a Cat 4 hurricane in 24 hours with one of the fastest spin ups ever recorded.

Early tracks have a wide spread, but this super storm is likely to be a "retiree" or so big they retire the name. The models show the possibility of wind speeds at landfall in excess of 170mph.

Small chance it hits Houston. Larger chance it hits Florida and/or the Carolinas.

Pay attention folks because this one won't be the slow lingerer that Harvey was.

This ones gonna hit like a young Mike Tyson.

 

[CGI_Ram]

It is still a fair distance away. Normally it seems they project a path, at least toward the gulf or Atlantic, but last I saw they weren't ready to commit much.

An impressive storm development none the less.

 

[LumberTubs]

There always seems to be something ready to try to kill you over there in the States. If its not venomous animals its mother nature (hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes). Feel sorry for you guys affected already by Harvey or possibly going to be affected by Irma. Sounds f***ing terrifying.

 

[HX76]

Useless fact for you......the next one to form after Irma will be Hurricane Jose.

 

[bnw]

There always seems to be something ready to try to kill you over there in the States. If its not venomous animals its mother nature (hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes). Feel sorry for you guys affected already by Harvey or possibly going to be affected by Irma. Sounds f***ing terrifying.

Don't forget volcanos, tsunamis, wildfires, dust storms..........Yet somehow we make it work.

 

[bnw]

This is gonna be a big one, folks. It went from a tropical storm to a Cat 4 hurricane in 24 hours with one of the fastest spin ups ever recorded.

Early tracks have a wide spread, but this super storm is likely to be a "retiree" or so big they retire the name. The models show the possibility of wind speeds at landfall in excess of 170mph.

Small chance it hits Houston. Larger chance it hits Florida and/or the Carolinas.

Pay attention folks because this one won't be the slow lingerer that Harvey was.

This ones gonna hit like a young Mike Tyson.

Too early to tell. Hope it stays and dies out in the Atlantic far offshore.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Useless fact for you......the next one to form after Irma will be Hurricane Jose.

Our new border wall will stop Hurricane Jose

 

[Mackeyser]

Yes, it's very early, but if it hits and there's a decent chance it will because of that high in the Atlantic, I posted because people will need an evacuation plan. It's that high in the Atlantic that is making it very unlikely that we get missed. If it's weak, it's likely to swing more North and hit NC. If the high intensifies, then we'll see it stay south more and then it'll be a question of Florida or the gulf.

The early models have this reaching wind speeds over 170mph.

While the chances of it hitting a gulf state isn't great, the current track makes hitting between Miami and North Carolina very possible.

I really hope it peters out or swings wide for the North Atlantic as well.

I posted this now because this storm will require evac plans. And no one is gonna want to be without a plan or supplies.

 

[HX76]

Mack my boss gets daily updates on the speeds and tracks of these hurricanes I'll do you an update Monday morning.

 

[Mackeyser]

Yeah the new models on Monday will really tell us a lot. The cone for the model plots on the spaghetti graphs is super wide atm.

We're not looking for any hit prior to 10 days (if at all) but as we saw with Rita, last minute evacs are terrible.

With storms this bad (think Andrew or Katrina), you don't want to be at the last minute forced to shelter in place.

 

[1maGoh]

Hurricane Harvey moving so slowly, as a unit not the wind speed, was actually worse than a fast moving hurricane. When they move slow they dump more water and cause more flooding. A fast hurricane moves through the area and spreads out all that water to drop, not to mention that if it moves inland quickly it runs out of water.

If Irma does make land fall, and God please don't let it, I hope it passes quickly over everyone and dies off fast.

 

[Loyal]

Yeah the new models on Monday will really tell us a lot. The cone for the model plots on the spaghetti graphs is super wide atm.

We're not looking for any hit prior to 10 days (if at all) but as we saw with Rita, last minute evacs are terrible.

With storms this bad (think Andrew or Katrina), you don't want to be at the last minute forced to shelter in place.

Think Camille....

 

[bnw]

Think Camille....

Camille is legendary. Think of what would have happened with the development and population of today.:eek:

 

[Mackeyser]

I sure hope people from Florida to the Carolinas have flood insurance.

I have a feeling Irma is gonna hit. The Atlantic high thus far has pushed it south enough that the latest models are showing a swing by Florida and hitting North Carolina right in the balls.

As Southeastern Texas is about to find out, if you don't have flood insurance, you don't have nuthin.

 

[Loyal]

I sure hope people from Florida to the Carolinas have flood insurance.

I have a feeling Irma is gonna hit. The Atlantic high thus far has pushed it south enough that the latest models are showing a swing by Florida and hitting North Carolina right in the balls.

As Southeastern Texas is about to find out, if you don't have flood insurance, you don't have nuthin.

So many places in hurricane country have built houses next to the water and some and many on barrier islands. If a cat 5 comes ashore almost anywhere in the Gulf or in the southeast, lives and coastline will change forever.

 

[BatteringRambo]

Wow! I had no idea until now. That last one Harvey I found out thru Joe Rogan's podcast. No other words can be expressed.

 

[Mackeyser]

I thought and said there was a good chance that Irma would take the southerly track and...unfortunately it is.

Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic will likely be hit but on the windward side, so look for wind damage, but less rain than if Irma went to their south and they got hit on the leeward side. (If you divide a hurricane in half based on the direction it's traveling, the windward side is the right side and the leeward side is the left side. Flip that in the Southern Hemisphere. The windward side has most of the water and the leeward side returns at higher speed due to less moisture. Over water, hurricanes tend to look pretty symmetrical, but once over land, they sometimes look like a Nike swoosh.)

The Bahamas are looking to take a direct hit.

Beyond that, who knows?

I mean, it could stay south, hit Puerto Rico, Dom Rep/Haiti and even Cuba before getting to the Gulf, but that's unlikely unless the Gulfstream swings south and strong.

It's much more likely to stay on this southerly swing and depending on how strong the High is in the Atlantic, do-si-do around it and head north.

I really think there's a very good chance that it hits the US between Florida and North Carolina.

My very amateur meteorologist instincts tell me that it will get close to Florida, but hit the Carolinas.

Lastly, don't be lulled by the 115mph sustained winds. It's in a dry patch of air and will have smaller spin-ups and slow downs as it exits the dry air and has interactions with land, but the water around the Bahamas is very warm and very wet, so expect a pretty substantial spin-up between Thursday and Friday. I expect we'll see models on Monday or Tuesday that show speeds at landfall to be in the 135-140mph range.

If there's one good thing about Irma is that she's hell bent for election. She's moving at 14mph which is pretty damn fast for a hurricane. Irma won't do the kind of water damage that Harvey did, but she's gonna pack a punch.

 

[Mackeyser]

Also, if you visit this site http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-300-forecast.htm

Scroll over the days (it reminds me of the old Netscape Navigator days and HTML 3.0).

That shows a forecast incorporating the Jet Stream (I mistakenly called it the gulfstream somewhere), and it also shows Irma hitting the border of North and South Carolina.

I dunno why I'm so obsessed with this and I still hold out a glimmer of hope that Irma swings north, but with the Atlantic high seemingly growing stronger and the forecast for the Jet Stream swinging south and then heading north very fast, I dunno if there will be enough to steer Irma northward at all. I keep looking at it after the Jet stream moves out in day 8 and 9 wondering what beyond surface winds is there to steer the storm north at all.

We'll see. I'll be stocking up probably tomorrow if the models don't show a reason for Irma to head north smartly.

 

[Loyal]

Also, if you visit this site http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-300-forecast.htm

Scroll over the days (it reminds me of the old Netscape Navigator days and HTML 3.0).

That shows a forecast incorporating the Jet Stream (I mistakenly called it the gulfstream somewhere), and it also shows Irma hitting the border of North and South Carolina.

I dunno why I'm so obsessed with this and I still hold out a glimmer of hope that Irma swings north, but with the Atlantic high seemingly growing stronger and the forecast for the Jet Stream swinging south and then heading north very fast, I dunno if there will be enough to steer Irma northward at all. I keep looking at it after the Jet stream moves out in day 8 and 9 wondering what beyond surface winds is there to steer the storm north at all.

We'll see. I'll be stocking up probably tomorrow if the models don't show a reason for Irma to head north smartly.

Whatever you do Mac, don't go to the party......

 

[Mackeyser]

Yeah, we're juggling our trip to Minny with if we need to bug out.

All the forecasts keep saying it's gonna break north at some point, but I've always had a feeling it wouldn't or at least not as much as people say.

I'm torn over whether it hits us in FL or swings to NC (there's still a chance that it stays low and heads into the Gulf).

Anyway, either I'm gonna be on the road headed to Minny on 9/11 or will have or be about to bug out to avoid the hurricane.

And I got Pandora and a fair amount of data, so any party will be in my ride...LOL