I have found the lost chord, the Holy Grail! I know the key ingredient to winning in the NFL Yet, I'm not the only one to stumble upon Shangri-La.
It was a dark and stormy night, and the entire ship's crew were scurrying above deck in hurricane winds, drowning beneath an onslaught of blinding rain, every able body man struggling to save the ancient whaling ship Saint Louis from sinking, thus sending every soul en masse to Davy Jones Locker. More than one of the rain drenched, emaciated crew prayed to a god they didn't believe in. The first mate Jeff Fisher thought, " This isn't what I signed up for!" And to think just a few days ago the sea had been smooth as glass. Nary a cloud in the sky and...
The author wishes to apologize for accidently exposing Rams fans to my novel in progress. Yet, the title of this tale is true. I will also expose you to the key to winning in the NFL. I believe Snead and Fisher are on to something good.
Back to reality! The first three waves of free agency have paved the path for Snead and Fisher, to draft key players, who will make the Rams a winner and playoff contender in 2014! I believe a GM should plug holes in free agency and draft the best player available in the draft. And the Rams spent their 2014 free agency period plugging holes. So far so good!
We'll talk more about Free Agency and the Rams upcoming draft towards a dynasty later in my article. Before I proceed, allow me to post some eye popping stats, which will bolster my hypothesis on How to Win in the Modern NFL!
1. The Rams defense have accumulated more sacks then any NFL team in the last two years! How cool is that?
2. In 2013, the Rams had more sacks then any NFC West Team! In 2013, The Rams allowed less sacks then any NFC West team. Yet, we finished in dead last in the NFC west! What?
Conclusion- The Rams outstanding positive NFC West Sack differential did not translate into WINS!
2013 NFL Offensive Line Rankings
A handful Teams with 10 or more wins, and their Offensive Line Rankings
32nd (last place) Arizona Cardinals
26th- Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks
24th Indianapolis Colts 20th- Kansas City
16th New England Patriots
17th- Saint Louis Rams
A handful of Losing Teams and their Offensive Line Rankings...
3rd ranked Washington
4th ranked Dallas ( Ok 8-8 record)
5th ranked Cleveland
6th ranked Minnesota
7th ranked Detroit
Conclusion- It would appear there is little or no correlation between offensive line ranking and Won/Loss Record. Before any of you get your dandruff up , Let me say, I'm aware more than one winning team had a superior offensive line. The Denver Bronco's are a shining example. A superior offensive line won't stop you from winning. I'm only saying, there isn't a statically valid correlation between superior offensive lines and winning records.
- In 2013, Six of the Nine Worst Rush Defenses made the Playoffs! I find that hard to believe! Half the teams who made the playoffs in 2013, had pathetic rushing defenses. Bottom of the barrel sieves!
Conclusion- When it comes to Winning, a powerful rushing defense is not a key ingredient! Not in the Modern NFL! Not during the regular season. The playoff season however is a different animal. More on that later.
I took all the 2013 Playoff teams YDS/A passing differentials and YDS/A rushing differentials. I included the Arizona Cardinals in my calculations, since they won 10 games. Fair enough?
Quick explanation of YDS/A rushing differential and YDS/A Passing Differential.
Example: During the 2013 regular season the New Orleans Saints offense averaged 3.8 yards per rushing attempt, but their defense allowed 4.6 yards per rushing attempt, thus the New Orleans Saints had a negative YDS/A rushing differential of minus 0.8. Understand? I used the same methodology to calculate YDS/A Passing differential. Are you with me so far?.
Results
11/13 or 85% of playoff teams had positive YDS/A passing differentials
7/13 or 54% of playoff teams had positive YDS/ Rushing attempt differentials.
Philadelphia was the only playoff team to have greater that 1.0 yard positive YDS/A rushing differential. The Eagles offense averaged 1.3 yards more per rush then their defense allowed.
YDS/A Passing Differential. In 2013, 6/13 playoff teams had greater than a 1.0 yard positive YDS/A passing differential. The Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks passing offense gained 2.45 more yards per passing attempt then their defense allowed! Best YDS/A passing differential in entire NFL!
The Philadelphia Eagles averaged 5.1 yards per rush in 2013, the only team in the entire NFL to average 5 yards per rushing attempt! Tampa Bay averaged 6.3 yards per pass in 2013. the lowest yards per passing attempt in the NFL. Do the math people. Tampa Bay gained 1.2 more yards per passing play than the Philadelphia did per rushing play.
What about the Rams Ewe! Every team in the NFC West , except for the Saint Louis Rams had a positive passing differential greater than 1.0 yard per attempt. The 2013 Rams had a negative passing YDS/a differential of minus 1.26 yards per passing attempt. Only the Washington Redskins had a worse YDS/A passing differential! Thank God we got their draft pick.
Conclusions-
1. A positive YDS/A passing differential has a very high correlation to a positive W/L record.
2. A positive YDS/A rushing differential does not have a significant correlation to a positive or negative W/L record.
3. When it comes to winning in the modern NFL, passing offense and passing defense matters more than Rushing offense and rushing defense.
Remember 6 of the 9 worst NFL rushing defenses made the playoffs in 2013!
Next, I decided to crunch the numbers for every 2013 NFL team's YDS/A passing differential. What did I find?
1. Teams like the Titians, Bears, and Lions with zero YDS/A passing differentials had either 8-8 or 7-9 records.
2. Only one team in the entire NFL with a losing record ( the 7-9 New York Giants) had a positive YDS/A passing differential. The NYG had a + 0.5 YDS/A passing differential.
3. The Kansas City Chiefs - 0.53 and Indianapolis Colts -0.52 YDS/A passing differentials stand alone as the only NFL teams with winning records and a negative YDS/A passing differentials! We know the Colts beat KC in a wild wildcard playoff shocker, and then lost to the New England Patriots in the next round. Total Playoff record for negative YDS/A passing differential teams...1 win and 2 losses.
4. We biologists like to say, "Treasure your exceptions." The Chiefs, Colts and the Giants were the only exceptions in 2013. I won't delve to deep into these team's seasons. But in passing, I will point out The Interception Exception to my YDS/A pass differential hypothesis. The Giants led the NFL in futility, throwing 29 Interceptions! Six more interceptions than the next team! The Chiefs threw a league low of 8 interceptions, while the Colts QB's were tied for 3rd, throwing only 10 interceptions!
Conclusion- During the 2013 NFL season, there was a very high correlation between winning records and positive YDS/A passing differential, and very high correlation between losing records and negative YDS/A passing differentials.
History Lesson... From 2003-2013 115 out of 132 or 87.1% of playoff teams had a positive YDS/A passing differentials!
Rams Review-
Rams led the NFC West in Sacks.
Rams offensive line allowed fewer sacks than any NFC West team.
Rams were the only team in the NFC West with a negative YDS/A passing differential, a pathetic -1.26 YDS/A!
Rams had the 2nd ranked offensive line in the NFC West.
Rams led the NFL in stopping running backs behind the line of scrimmage.
Rams were 2nd in the NFC West behind the Cardinals in stopping the Run.
Before Sam Bradford's freak injury, Sam was on his way to his best year yet, as Sam had the 11th highest Passer Rating in the NFL. Not bad! Yet, Sam Bradford's 6.44 yards per attempt came in a lowly 34th among qualifying quarterbacks . I know Rams wide receivers dropped their share of passes. So, I asked myself, How much difference would it have made if the Rams receivers led the league with the fewest drops?
I recorded each dropped pass as a 7 yard completion and recalibrated the numbers. The results? Sam's new 6.71 YDS/A propelled him into 27th place.
How does a positive YDS/A differential work out on the field Ewe?
The fewer plays it takes to score a TD, the less the chance a scoring drive is thwarted by penalty, interception or fumble. Your chances of screwing up are greater on a 14 play drive than on a 6 play drive. Does that make sense?
Even the worst NFL passing attempt team averages 1.2 yards more per passing play than the best rushing team. Am I still making sense?
Also every game runs out of time twice... Halftime and Game Over! Passing is the quickest way to score and slow down the clock, while a demonic pass defense forces turnovers, offensive mistakes until the offense runs out of downs or time.
If the Rams plan to win, and make the playoffs, the Rams must increase their YDS/A passing differential. There are two basic ways to attain such a goal. Offensively and Defensively. Duh! Right?
Offense-
Quarterback. The Rams are going to keep Sam Bradford, therefore switching quarterbacks is not an option in 2014.
Drafting a #1 Wide Receiver is an option, and I predict the Rams will draft a WR in the first two rounds. In 2013, the Rams top receiver Chris Givens was ranked 79th in the league. Armed with a pathetic stat like that, you can make an argument that the Rams don't have #2 receiver, much less a true #1 WR!
We need a wide receiver who gains yards after the catch, and who takes pressure off of Tavon Austin, Quick, Cook, and Zak Stacy.
Coaching and offensive game planning- Changing offensive coordinators and wide receiver coaches is not an option in 2014. We can only pray that Schotty has figured out how to utilize Tavon Austin, Cook and whichever wide receiver the Rams draft in 2014. Don't get me started! This is stuff for whole another article.
Offensive Line- Before someone gets their panties in a wad about Big Uglies, and screams Robinson, take into count that Rams offensive line was ranked higher than Arizona (32) and Seattle(26). Stats show little correlation between great offensive lines and winning records. I'm not saying teams with great offensive lines lose! I'm saying teams with negative YDS/A passing differentials lose. Perhaps that's why Jeff Fisher has never drafted an offensive lineman in the first round?
I like Jake Mathews more than Greg Robinson. Jake Mathews is a superior pass blocker than Robinson. I'm sure you've noticed, I value pass blocking more than run blocking in the modern NFL. ( I do miss the days of Eric Dickerson! Jackie Slater and that classic wrecking crew! Memories!) But I digress.
Philosophy Break- The regular season and the playoff season are two different animals! In the playoffs NFL Refs back off and let the Men play. During the Regular season, defensive pass interference penalties suddenly morph into outstanding defensive coverage plays! I'm sure I'm not the only person on ROD to notice this post season playoff phenomenon! It happens every year, in much the same way beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon to Capistrano.
Thus, high scoring offenses get you to playoffs, but 80% of the time it's the dominating defense that wins the Super Bowl.
Demonic Dominating Defensive Dynasty- I can dig RamzFan's Hitler video and point of view. Hilarious! Put's Saturday Night Live to shame! I digress.
It would behoove the Rams to come out of the NFL draft with at least 3 upgrades on defense.
Cornerback- We need a wide receiver leech at cornerback. A cornerback cornerstone who can blitz, play press, and man to man, so that Gregg Williams front SEVEN can torcher opposing offenses with a plethora of blitzes. We need defensive backs who crack wide receivers vertebrate the moment the touch the ball. Sure tacklers! We need a cornerback before the 2nd round is over! I prefer Justin Gilbert over any free safety in this draft.
Free Safety- We need a rangy free safety, with great instincts. Yet, I want a free safety who hits like a rhinocerous. The surest shortest path to winning the Super Bowl is the NFL #1 Defense. Snead and Fisher must draft defense to put the Nasty Defefsive Dynasty! Can you dig it? Draft for D! Our new free safety must make receivers suffer. I prefer Calvin Pryor over Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. I've watched plenty film on those Pryor and Clinton-Dix.. I haven't watched much tape on the rest of the 2014 safety draft class. I know their names. Jimmie Ward, Deone Bucannon and Dion Bailey. If any of you have seen them play, let me know.
Linebacker- Draft Jadeveon Clowney if we can't trade down. ( I believe Clowney can play DE, DT, and Outside lineback his first year) If you read my first post on ROD, then you know all my reasons. I'm cool with Mack, Mosely, and Shazier. Through November of last year our linebackers were allowing an obscenely high passing YDS/A . Worst in the NFL. We improved a little in December. Thank God. Alec Olgetree was a rookie, and I expect him to improve. Tight Ends and Wide Receivers were killing us over the middle. Perhaps we can place this albatross around Tim Walton and throw him overboard? If we want a demonic dominating defensive dynasty we must draft an OLB or Clowney within the first 3 rounds! And we need to draft depth at middle linebacker, a little later.
Defensive Tackle- I like the Rams signing DT Alex Carrington. He blocks a few extra points and field goals every year. In 2011 the Bills tried him out at OLB. He's a space eater. He's a versatile guy. Yet, If the Rams trade back their 13th pick and nab a defensive tackle of Aaron Donald caliber and an extra pick I won't cry. If we can't trade down and we stay at #2 we must draft Clowney, because he can play DT on rushing downs. Imagine Clowney, Quinn, Long, and either Brokers or Hayes rushing a terrified quarterback. Clowney is great against the run too. I would take Clowney at #2 over Watkins or anybody.
A smart GM looks 2-5 years into the future. It would be stupid to draft a Left Tackle to play guard or replace Jake Long for a month. If we draft a Left Tackle earlier...Do it because you foresee the Big Ugly playing left tackle for a decade. I'm down with that!
A smart GM point plugs holes in through free agency and drafts Best Player Available in the draft. Of course a smart GM manipulates the draft, and trades backwards or forwards to obtain the Best Player Available to fulfill a need, if at all possible.
An incestuous Coach uses late round picks for depth, special teams, offensive linemen, and to trade for proven vets! The 49'ers trading a 6th round pick for Anquan Boldin is a good example of such a trade. I'm joking, but seriously a few trades like that crop up every year. Be prepared to jump on it Snead!
Snead signed Saffold, Dunbar, a Defensive Tackle, back up QB, and a defensive back. We didn't sign any uber expensive free agents. Jo Lonn Dunbar, a backup defensive tackle, drug addled defensive backs and wide receivers on parole come cheap.
Since the advent of relatively cheap rookie contracts and Salary Caps, it makes sense to draft the expensive positions like franchise QB's, dominate DE's, #1 WR's, and cornerbacks early in the draft. Plug in and sign solid starting guards, linebackers, 2nd tier WRs, DT's and rotational linemen thru free agency. And draft running backs late.
Final Thought - I believe the Rams will use 3 out of their first 5 picks on defense. Early defensive picks will emphasize stopping the pass. Conversely early offensive draft picks should supplement the passing game. A strong passing game should open up our running game. It's all good! But defense is better. If the Rams make the playoffs in 2014. A dominating defense will take the Rams further than a high octane offense.
