How to Win in the Modern NFL! Drafting a Dynasty!

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bomebadeeda

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I'm not advocating copying OR not copying the Seattle Seahawks.

I'm trying to make a convincing argument that, teams who average more yards per pass attempt than their defenses allow per pass attempt win more games. The rushing equivalent of the YDS/A differential stat, does not correlate significantly with Won-Loss records. 6 out of the 9 worst rushing defenses made the playoffs. What else do these stats suggest? If you wish to win in the modern NFL it is more efficient to allocate Salary Cap resources and coaching hires toward establishing superior passing offensive and defensive units.

I found passing YDS/A correlates with won loss record better than any other stat, outside of out scoring your opponents. This stat enables you look under the hood of your favorite football team. What I call YDS/A passing differential is a stat symptom and has an abstract relationship to winning football. I could have delved deeper into non abstract causation in my article, like play action passes, QB progressions, and shutdown cornerbacks, but I didn't have enough room in my article.

That doesn't mean I haven't pondered why Sam Bradford always has a low passing YDS/A. I wrote an article last year listing 21 possible reasons contributing to Bradford's low pass YDS/A. One of my reasons was how a superior rushing attack opens up a more efficient passing attack. So I agree with you. A great rushing attack and rushing defense doesn't hurt, it helps. But the modern Salary Cap makes it difficult to have your cake and eat it too. For example:

The 49'er and the Seahawks have minimum wage quarterbacks. Both Kaepernick and Russell Wilson can extend plays with their legs easier than Sam Bradford, thus exploiting broken coverage downfield. That ability does wonders for your YDS/A. If I was GM, with unlimited job security,of a modern mythical NFL team.

I would use a first round draft pick on a quarterback, who has the ability to extend plays with his legs, yet displays ability to pass from the pocket. Why? First round, because I have an extra option year on him. If my QB is good, I have a winning cheap QB for 5 years, and my saved salary cap money, which I can distribute among elite positional players. If I hit the jackpot and draft an elite QB like Peyton Manning, A Rodgers, or Tom Brady, I will of course extend my elite QB's contract. If my QB is not a top 8 QB I would trade him or not resign him after his 5 year contract is up. Then do it all over again. If I have an average QB after 5 years is up, and our team is close to competing for a Super Bowl, then I would franchise tag the QB.

I'm not saying Wilson or Kaepernick are better than Bradford. I am saying the 49er's and Seahawks have a better QB Salary Cap situation than the Rams at present.

From the perspective of the Bobsy twins having a "better" cap situation.....(for the moment....) I have to agree. But I still believe the Yards per attempt is still a symptom of a scheme. But running QBs have their own problems. (See Steve McNair.....)
Last year we did try to "expand" our downfield passing game (early in the year). And very quickly we were shown we didn't have the capabilities (either in the Oline play....or or receivers.... or you even can point a finger @ Sam...) to create situations taking advantage of pushing down the field. Whether it was Schottemheimer's overall dumb downed offense or our overall lack of execution. We couldn't do it. (Expand the field where it would open up other areas....). It takes a well executes scheme to produce these numbers. Just a "push" to achieve these stats will not produce them.
Now don't get me wrong. I love what you are saying (at this juncture of the offseason....) It's a much better discussion, than the normal will blah blah blah have "X" amount of this or that.... You are actually hitting on some very good perspectives. Scheme and execution are the key. Productivity will rise.

Now your idea about cap management..... I can agree if you are starting from scratch.....but there is a huge learning curve, that those 2 have had a big advantage of great running games and fantastic defenses. And personally, I would rather my QB be a distributor.......to the guys who are paid to run w/ the ball. (And this from a guy that grew up watching the wishbone......)
 

bomebadeeda

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There are usually multiple paths you can choose to either prove your theory or discover if there is a trend or even a repeatable conclusion. Including starting from a conclusion and working your way backwards to see if the facts support it. In any case, some methods may be better than others.
And this was my point exactly. (Thus the inability to get points across....). I love the deeper discussion. But I believe execution and scheme is more important in the long run.

And as for the running QB concept........Steve McNair was one of the greatest running "QB's".....until he had his sternum broken on a brilliant move on one LB.....only to have another "change" his perception of the position.....which from that point he became one of the better QBs in the game (he also hung in the pocket longer...).
 

RamsAndEwe

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From the perspective of the Bobsy twins having a "better" cap situation.....(for the moment....) I have to agree. But I still believe the Yards per attempt is still a symptom of a scheme. But running QBs have their own problems. (See Steve McNair.....)
Last year we did try to "expand" our downfield passing game (early in the year). And very quickly we were shown we didn't have the capabilities (either in the Oline play....or or receivers.... or you even can point a finger @ Sam...) to create situations taking advantage of pushing down the field. Whether it was Schottemheimer's overall dumb downed offense or our overall lack of execution. We couldn't do it. (Expand the field where it would open up other areas....). It takes a well executes scheme to produce these numbers. Just a "push" to achieve these stats will not produce them.
Now don't get me wrong. I love what you are saying (at this juncture of the offseason....) It's a much better discussion, than the normal will blah blah blah have "X" amount of this or that.... You are actually hitting on some very good perspectives. Scheme and execution are the key. Productivity will rise.

Now your idea about cap management..... I can agree if you are starting from scratch.....but there is a huge learning curve, that those 2 have had a big advantage of great running games and fantastic defenses. And personally, I would rather my QB be a distributor.......to the guys who are paid to run w/ the ball. (And this from a guy that grew up watching the wishbone......)

Oh I see what your saying. Symptom of a scheme! Yes, I think offensive scheme has a sizable effect on yards per attempt. Nick Foles had the highest YDS/A of any qualifying QB. I have to believe the Chip Kelly's offensive scheme contributed to that YDS/A stat. The Eagles also had a high rushing per attempt stat. And I think that was a product of Kelly's offensive scheme. The Eagles anemic pass defense led to their quick playoff exit.

I didn't address offensive scheme in my article, because that's a variable the Rams won't change in 2014. If, Schotty obtains more weapons and he maximizes the potential, by catering to players offensive strengths, and disguising player's weakness, then the Rams could make a significant offensive leap forward in 2014. Until then, I feel Schotty is an offensive limiting factor. Saint Louis is in the Show Me State. Show me Schottenheimer, show us!

Yes...Symptom of a scheme. For some unknown reason I didn't catch on first time around. My bad.
 

bomebadeeda

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Good example w/ Foles. He certainly wasn't the best QB in the league but the stats would have given someone argument. Don't get me wrong, he did a great job within what they were trying to do. But I'll wager more than a few DCs are already putting him in their sights and his numbers won't come out the same next year....(including ours.....he he he.....).
And no apology needed. Your post is very well formed and you used good logic behind it. Keep it coming. I love talking philosophy of the game.
 

blackbart

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I agree with bomebadeeda this is a much better discussion than the mind numbing draft chatter.

Without taking the time to go through the numbers to check is there a difference in a team that arrives in a higher yds/A dif by having both higher offensive and defensive stats? Or does it matter?? The numbers seems to vary very little over all somewhere between -2 and +2 in most cases.

Does yards/A of 7.5 minus yard/A given up 6.5 = 1 mean more than
yards/A of 6.5 minus yards/A given up 5.5 also = 1

Where does competition come in to play in these numbers? Teams playing against the NFCW are likely to have a lower yards/A than teams playing the NFCN
 

Stranger

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I agree with bomebadeeda this is a much better discussion than the mind numbing draft chatter.

Without taking the time to go through the numbers to check is there a difference in a team that arrives in a higher yds/A dif by having both higher offensive and defensive stats? Or does it matter?? The numbers seems to vary very little over all somewhere between -2 and +2 in most cases.

Does yards/A of 7.5 minus yard/A given up 6.5 = 1 mean more than
yards/A of 6.5 minus yards/A given up 5.5 also = 1

Where does competition come in to play in these numbers? Teams playing against the NFCW are likely to have a lower yards/A than teams playing the NFCN
Huh, what's wrong with mind numbing? I like mind numbing.

zombie_beer_t640.jpg
 

PhxRam

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I am glad that you're here, Ewe. I am enjoying your material - great entertainment. And, I agree with your Final Thoughts.

However, I think you probably realize that drawing conclusions based upon correlations within a very small data set is specious. Hey, but it's fun :D

I would say that discovering trends quickly is much more valuable information then extending the data set looking for patterns.
 

scifiman

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I have always thought that Bradfords ypc was way below average. He dumps off way too much because he is playing it safe. Nothing wrong with this strategy as you take what the defense gives you. I do believe the rams can be a dominant team having a dominant defense and an average offense. I dont ever see the rams having a dominant offense with Bradford at qb. He is a game manager and he tries not to lose the game for you. Which is all good too. It all depends on the risks you want to take. If the defense is not dominant then your offense has to be better.
 

RamsAndEwe

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I agree with bomebadeeda this is a much better discussion than the mind numbing draft chatter.

Without taking the time to go through the numbers to check is there a difference in a team that arrives in a higher yds/A dif by having both higher offensive and defensive stats? Or does it matter?? The numbers seems to vary very little over all somewhere between -2 and +2 in most cases.

Does yards/A of 7.5 minus yard/A given up 6.5 = 1 mean more than
yards/A of 6.5 minus yards/A given up 5.5 also = 1

Where does competition come in to play in these numbers? Teams playing against the NFCW are likely to have a lower yards/A than teams playing the NFCN

Philadelphia was the only team in the NFL who had a greater rushing differential than 1.0 yard per attempt.

95% of the NFL passing differentials stayed within -1.5 to + 2.0 range

Both of your math problems equal 1. As far as I can tell, they are equal in predictive power, when it comes to regular season won-loss records. But, once in the playoff I would pick the better defensive team, because I have observed Referees let defenses get away with more in the playoffs and Super Bowl.

It doesn't matter how you get a positive pass deferential. You can do it with your offense or defense. Although, I see the Rams improving their YDS/A pass differential mainly on the defensive side of the ball in 2014. I attribute my prediction to Gregg Williams and a defensive scheme change. Will it equate a better won loss record? The Rams again have the schedule from hell. We play 10 games against teams who either won 10 games or made the playoffs.

I will be bold enough to predict, if the Rams have at least a 0.5 positive pass differential, then the Rams will indeed win more games in 2014. Mark my words.
 

blackbart

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Philadelphia was the only team in the NFL who had a greater rushing differential than 1.0 yard per attempt.

95% of the NFL passing differentials stayed within -1.5 to + 2.0 range

Both of your math problems equal 1. As far as I can tell, they are equal in predictive power, when it comes to regular season won-loss records. But, once in the playoff I would pick the better defensive team, because I have observed Referees let defenses get away with more in the playoffs and Super Bowl.

It doesn't matter how you get a positive pass deferential. You can do it with your offense or defense. Although, I see the Rams improving their YDS/A pass differential mainly on the defensive side of the ball in 2014. I attribute my prediction to Gregg Williams and a defensive scheme change. Will it equate a better won loss record? The Rams again have the schedule from hell. We play 10 games against teams who either won 10 games or made the playoffs.

I will be bold enough to predict, if the Rams have at least a 0.5 positive pass differential, then the Rams will indeed win more games in 2014. Mark my words.

Looking forward to see what Williams can do with this defense they were already pretty good except the play of the secondary. I can see one or two new faces in the defensive backfield and some help for the oline making a difference on both ends of your differential metric and more wins for the Rams.

Thanks for the interesting twist
 

Stranger

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I would say that discovering trends quickly is much more valuable information then extending the data set looking for patterns.
yes, you are sooooo right Mr. Smartie pants :)