Will Goff's Rookie Season Be Statistically Greater Than Or Worse Than Bradford's

[snackdaddy]

I voted Goff. I know Goff's weapons aren't exactly instilling fear in opponents. But compare them to the 2010 team. I gotta think Goff has more to work with. Bradford had Amendola who averaged 8 yards per catch. Pretty low for a receiver. After that, is anyone even still playing in the league?

 

[PARAM]

Better. Goff has a better team around him and a better coaching staff. He might not throw for 3500+ yards depending on how many attempts Fisher gives him but I think he'll post better efficiency numbers.

Should we compare his numbers to Bradford, as a Rams QB coming from the college spread or to Vince Young, as a rookie QB starting 13 games for Fisher? The Titans went 8-8 (8-5 with Young starting). The Rams went 7-9 in Bradford's rookie year. Both won Offensive ROY Awards. Young went 9-6 the following year and made the postseason. Bradford went 1-9 in his sophmore season.

Which brings me to this question: Vince Young went 30-17 in his career under Fisher but we all know he wasn't what he appeared to be in college. Bradford has a 25-37-1 NFL record, 12 games under .500 but only 2 games under .500 for Fisher (10-12-1). Yet Fisher has been the target of many fans who believe he can't "develop" a QB (despite McNair's success in the NFL). I guess Goff will be the final test for that question.

So if Fisher can get better stats out of Goff than he did with Young and more wins out of Goff than the Rams had with Bradford, I think we'll be satisfied. I guess that's my answer to the original question posed: Numbers not as good as Bradford (overall) but more wins.

 

[RAMBUSH]

Better
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God I hate that # 16.

 

[dieterbrock]

Man, @jrry32 covered all the bases. Would just add that with Big Ben and Marc Sanchez having playoff success, it sort of broke the mold that you couldn't win with a rookie.

But on another angle, I don't think Goff has much more to work with than Bradford did. He sure plays in a tougher division with much higher aspirations.

 

[Ramrasta]

It will be interesting to see if they think Goff is ready to start week one. If they hold him on the bench two, three, or even four games then he is going to have a harder time catching Bradford.

 

[nighttrain]

I'm still thinking he will start the first game, I could hand off to Gurley, Goff throw passes that our recivers have never seen, catchable and right in their wheelhouse
train

 

[LesBaker]

It will be interesting to see if they think Goff is ready to start week one. If they hold him on the bench two, three, or even four games then he is going to have a harder time catching Bradford.

Why are you .......

 

[…..]

Its a tough sell to me guys. Bradford had a great rookie season and Goff will be handing off to Gurley alot. Its not in Fishers wheel house to suddenly go all gunslinger on us, but we"ll see.

I'm not in the speculation business, but I have high hopes and I love the positive vibes.

 

[Orchid]

Simply put, even if Goff performs relative to his peers at the same level as rookie Bradford, his final numbers in 2016 will still be better.

Jrry32 makes a compelling case but I am more like Dog in that I think the real key is whether Fisher gives Goff the opportunity (i.e. number of passing attempts vs number of rushes). It is hard for me to see Fisher throwing the ball 58% of the time as Bradford's Rams or 60% like the Titans did last year. Last year the Ram's passed the ball 52% of the time while pounding the rock with Gurley. The Rams have been going downhill in terms of passing attempts since Fisher got here. I believe Goff could put up similar numbers recent rookies if the Rams ran more offensive plays and they pass the ball closer to the average of Fisher's tenure, 55%. This rate seems to be the rate run oriented teams have gotten good performance from rookies (see Winston and Glennon).

Pass vs Run Attemps (Data form Team's website)


Yr Plays Passes Rushes % Passes

2010 1019 590 429 58% Bradford

2011 958 549 409 57%

2012 967 557 410 58%

2013 932 506 426 54%

2014 910 515 395 57%

2015 902 473 429 52% Gurley

928 513 415 55% Fisher’s Avg

2015 990 535 455 54% Winston

2015 922 551 371 60% Mariota

2013 934 514 420 55% Glennon

949 533 415 56% Avg. of the above 3 Rookies

​

 

[MTRamsFan]

He will be better. That is all.

 

[Athos]

Man, @jrry32 covered all the bases. Would just add that with Big Ben and Marc Sanchez having playoff success, it sort of broke the mold that you couldn't win with a rookie.

But on another angle, I don't think Goff has much more to work with than Bradford did. He sure plays in a tougher division with much higher aspirations.

A 100% Gurley is a huge improvement over a beaten mentally and physically SJ39 and that Iline wasn't good.

And there's a lot more raw WR talent than 201o.

Will say this tho, Sam had it relatively easy competition wise compared to what Goff is likely to face if he starts right off the bat.

Sam never had to play a SB level D like the Panthers boast, the Hags D of today, Zona D of today, the Patsies, or the Phins.

 

[NateDawg122]

Man, @jrry32 covered all the bases. Would just add that with Big Ben and Marc Sanchez having playoff success, it sort of broke the mold that you couldn't win with a rookie.

But on another angle, I don't think Goff has much more to work with than Bradford did. He sure plays in a tougher division with much higher aspirations.

Gurley is easily better than the SJ that Bradford had. I'd even argue that Gurley is already better than Jackson was in his prime. Talent-wise it's no contest. Tavon is also a big upgrade and Kenny Britt can be a quality receiver with the right QB. If that line develops a bit it will be better this year than Bradford's too. The defense is better also. Overall, this team is a lot better all around than what Bradford had.

 

[Ram65]

Jrry32 makes a compelling case but I am more like Dog in that I think the real key is whether Fisher gives Goff the opportunity (i.e. number of passing attempts vs number of rushes). It is hard for me to see Fisher throwing the ball 58% of the time as Bradford's Rams or 60% like the Titans did last year. Last year the Ram's passed the ball 52% of the time while pounding the rock with Gurley. The Rams have been going downhill in terms of passing attempts since Fisher got here. I believe Goff could put up similar numbers recent rookies if the Rams ran more offensive plays and they pass the ball closer to the average of Fisher's tenure, 55%. This rate seems to be the rate run oriented teams have gotten good performance from rookies (see Winston and Glennon).

Pass vs Run Attemps (Data form Team's website)


Yr Plays Passes Rushes % Passes

2010 1019 590 429 58% Bradford

2011 958 549 409 57%

2012 967 557 410 58%

2013 932 506 426 54%

2014 910 515 395 57%

2015 902 473 429 52% Gurley

928 513 415 55% Fisher’s Avg

2015 990 535 455 54% Winston

2015 922 551 371 60% Mariota

2013 934 514 420 55% Glennon

949 533 415 56% Avg. of the above 3 Rookies

​

Nice work. I'm think Fisher would pass a little more in 2016 with Goff. Last year, the Rams offense was put into a shell with a limit mistake run safe offense mentality. I can see Fisher opening things up with the passing game in 2016. It will still be a run based offense but once Goff gets comfortable Fisher will throw more. I think the Rams offense will be less predictable moving forward. My guess would be in the 55% to 57% passing. It will be interesting to see how the offense unfolds. This makes me think Goff would do a little better then Bradford in YPA and TDs.​

 

[Ramrasta]

Why are you .......

It's just the general emotion that overtakes me when I'm watching a Rams game, hahaha

 

[jrry32]

Jrry32 makes a compelling case but I am more like Dog in that I think the real key is whether Fisher gives Goff the opportunity (i.e. number of passing attempts vs number of rushes). It is hard for me to see Fisher throwing the ball 58% of the time as Bradford's Rams or 60% like the Titans did last year. Last year the Ram's passed the ball 52% of the time while pounding the rock with Gurley. The Rams have been going downhill in terms of passing attempts since Fisher got here. I believe Goff could put up similar numbers recent rookies if the Rams ran more offensive plays and they pass the ball closer to the average of Fisher's tenure, 55%. This rate seems to be the rate run oriented teams have gotten good performance from rookies (see Winston and Glennon).

Pass vs Run Attemps (Data form Team's website)


Yr Plays Passes Rushes % Passes

2010 1019 590 429 58% Bradford

2011 958 549 409 57%

2012 967 557 410 58%

2013 932 506 426 54%

2014 910 515 395 57%

2015 902 473 429 52% Gurley

928 513 415 55% Fisher’s Avg

2015 990 535 455 54% Winston

2015 922 551 371 60% Mariota

2013 934 514 420 55% Glennon

949 533 415 56% Avg. of the above 3 Rookies

​

This is a fair point. Good research. Although, I must point out that 58% figure from 2012. That's the only year that Fisher had Bradford. I also have a feeling that our passing percentage from 2013 prior to Bradford's injury was probably in the 56-60% range. I think, with a legitimate QB here, we'll see Fisher throw the ball 55% to 56% of the time. If we can actually sustain drives (and I think we will to a greater extent than 2015), that's 550-560+ dropbacks in a year. After you account for sacks, that's around 510 to 540 passing attempts.

Then again, if we're playing with a lead a lot, that number will shrink because Fisher tends to be very conservative and run-happy with a lead.

 

[FarNorth]

This is a fair point. Good research. Although, I must point out that 58% figure from 2012. That's the only year that Fisher had Bradford. I also have a feeling that our passing percentage from 2013 prior to Bradford's injury was probably in the 56-60% range. I think, with a legitimate QB here, we'll see Fisher throw the ball 55% to 56% of the time. If we can actually sustain drives (and I think we will to a greater extent than 2015), that's 550-560+ dropbacks in a year. After you account for sacks, that's around 510 to 540 passing attempts.

Then again, if we're playing with a lead a lot, that number will shrink because Fisher tends to be very conservative and run-happy with a lead.

In my view the key to everything is sustaining drives. That creates more passing and receiving opportunities, and for more players, regardless of the pass/run percentage. If we are winning the percentage will tilt to Gurley in the 4th quarter to close out games. If we change the time of possession, and have any ability to get a lead, the entire shape of the games will change in our favor.

I also expect Fisher to give Goff lots of safe short passes to start with, but with a number of play action shots down field over the course of the game. Rams have been trying for years to get big plays down field. Now with Goff they may actually be able to get it done.

 

[nighttrain]

God I hate that # 16.

if he has a career like Montana's you will learn to love #16
train

 

[thirteen28]

I'm hoping for better but I don't think Goff has anywhere near as good an offensive coordinator as Bradford had his first year... and Pat Shurmer wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire.

I honestly don't know how you can draw this conclusion. We have only a very limited sample size on Boras, and that was having taken over during the season, and relatively late at that. And still, we did notice marked improvement in several games. At worst, the offense under Boras last year was at least as good as it ever was under Shurmur, and that was with Case Keenum at QB, who is much more limited than Sam.

Shurmur flat-out sucked. He was bad in his two years with the Rams, and was the first to begin coaching Sam into becoming Checkdown Charlie. Shurmur sucked in Cleveland too, and the complaints of their fanbase mirrored ours. And while he had the title of OC in Philly, that was most decidedly not his offense. Yes, he did OK with Bradford in their one year together with the Rams, but that was by severely limiting him. And no, it's not his fault that the talent level wasn't that great, but at the same time the predictability and such were most decidedly his fault.

 

[thirteen28]

Man, @jrry32 covered all the bases. Would just add that with Big Ben and Marc Sanchez having playoff success, it sort of broke the mold that you couldn't win with a rookie.

But on another angle, I don't think Goff has much more to work with than Bradford did. He sure plays in a tougher division with much higher aspirations.

It remains to be seen whether Goff has more to work with at WR and TE than Bradford had in 2010 ... but I think the Gurley of 2016 will greatly exceed the Steven Jackson of 2010, and that will make a significant difference.

 

[jrry32]

It remains to be seen whether Goff has more to work with at WR and TE than Bradford had in 2010 ... but I think the Gurley of 2016 will greatly exceed the Steven Jackson of 2010, and that will make a significant difference.

Eh, I don't know. Our WRs in 2010 were like 8 games of healthy Clayton/Alexander, a good slot WR in Amendola, ineffective Gibson and Robinson, and a couple TEs who barely belonged on a NFL roster in Bajema and Fells.

It's arguable that Amendola was better than anything we currently have. That'll depend on what Austin and Britt show with a better QB. But I see a much more talented WR corp here now. Britt has the potential to put up 800-1000 yards and 8-10 TDs. We don't know what Austin can be. We just know he's a better weapon than anything on the 2010 Rams. And then we have some young unknowns in Cooper, Higbee, Thomas, Quick, Marquez, and Hemingway.

I'd take our current WR corp over the 2010 version. We have a lot more talent and Britt/Austin are much more talented than Amendola + any other WR on 2010.