Miami Dolphins: What’s Robert Griffin III worth?
by: Omar Kelly February 28th, 2012 | 9:18 AM
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8 ... s-interest
The St. Louis Rams are actively shopping the No. 2 pick in the 2012 NFL draft, which most teams expect will turn into Robert Griffin III.
When Justin Blackmon showed up smaller than team's expected the Rams became a bit froggie.
The Sun-Sentinel reported this on Friday, and broke down various aspects of the decision.
The Miami Dolphins have some level of interest in making a deal, but considering Miami’s in viewed as the team in the driver’s seat to land Peyton Manning once he’s released from Indianapolis, and Packers backup Matt Flynn during free agency, [hil]a team source told the Sun-Sentinel the motivation to give up draft picks for the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback “isn’t very high.”[/hil]
That source said the Rams are asking for draft picks equivalent to the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft, which is worth 3,000 points on a trade value chart.
However, the Rams really have the No. 2 pick, which is worth 2,600 points. But I’m told the value of many of the draft’s early picks will go up because the money needed to sign these players to four-year deals has gone down.
For instance, while Manning will likely land a contract that pays him $15 annually, and Flynn will get a deal that pays him around $50 million over five years, Griffin will net approximately $22 million over the next four seasons.
So, what’s the No. 2 pick worth in trade points to the Dolphins?
Based on what the Rams are asking, we’re talking about a swap of Miami’s No. 8 for St. Louis No. 2 in 2012, a second-rounder in 2012, a first-rounder in 2013 and possibly a third-rounder in 2013.
That’s approximately 3,100 points in trade value, which actually exceeds St. Louis’ asking price.
Don’t mistake it. We’re estimating a what is a fair and reasonable trade from Miami’s standpoint, not what the Dolphins have offered.
Here’s how the formula works: Miami’s No. 8 is worth 1,400 points. The second-round pick is worth 480 points. Next years first-round pick is hard to assess, but say the Dolphins land the 16th pick then it would be worth 1,000 points. If Miami’s worse than a .500 teams then the value goes up. If the Dolphins are better it goes down. The same approach goes for the third-round pick in 2013, which would be worth around 225 points.
What could drive the price up – from a third-rounder to a second-rounder in 2013 – is the amount of teams in the bidding, and the level of draft picks they have to offer.
Desperation could also come into play.
The Dolphins, Browns and Redskins are the three teams aggressively looking to upgrade the quarterback position. The Seahawks are viewed as the dark horse in hunt for quarterbacks, but the likelihood of the Rams trading the rights to Griffin to a division rival are not good.
With Miami and Cleveland viewed as the two front runners to get Manning and Flynn the Rams front office figures are aware it would benefit them to move the No. 2 pick before Manning is released on March 8, and free agency started on March 13.
I’m told the Redskins are expected to be the most aggressive team in pursuit of Griffin, but Washington would gain negotiating leverage if the Dolphins or Cleveland, or both teams, land a quarterback in free agency.
That’s why many expect the Rams to accept an offer before free agency because St. Louis has little cap space, and plenty of needs to fill, therefore the Rams have no motivation to stay at No. 2, especially since Justin Blackmon’s stock will likely fall if this 6-foot receiver doesn’t run a respectable 40-yard dash time.
