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http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/17584658/2016-which-2-0-nfl-teams-contenders-pretenders
Eight NFL teams emerged from Week 2 unbeaten, although the Minnesota Vikings probably do not feel like it after seeing quarterback Teddy Bridgewaterget injured in the preseason and running back Adrian Peterson go down in Week 2
We won't schedule parades in September, but the fast starts provide a chance to get an early read on which unbeaten teams pass the "for real" test. Here are my rankings of the 2-0 teams, informed by insights from league insiders:
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots are both the most stable and adaptable team, which makes them the most reliable.
New England can and will win games a variety of ways -- by plan. The Patriots will throw the ball 50 times by design one week and run it 40 times by design another week.
After making winning with Tom Brady appear automatic for years, they won with Jimmy Garoppolo in his place for two weeks. They might have a harder time beating Houston on a short week with rookie third-round pick Jacoby Brissett making his first start. Then again, they might not, because the season's first couple of weeks have only added concrete by the truckload to firm up Belichick's reputation as the NFL's best coach.
"What's changed?" an NFL team executive said. "Win with Brady, win without him. Win with Gronk, win without him. Where will they be in January? Same place they always are -- in the AFC Championship Game with a great shot at winning it all."
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were one of the very good teams to make my preseason overrated list, only because I thought it was tough banking on all their key players' availability late in the year. Ben Roethlisberger misses games periodically. Le'Veon Bell carries suspension and injury concerns.
But as a personnel evaluator reminded me, the Steelers came close to beating Denver in the playoffs last season without Bell or receiver Antonio Brownplaying a snap. This season, their defense held both Washington and Cincinnati to 16 points apiece, masking cornerback deficiencies in the process.
Coach Mike Tomlin can be adventuresome in clock management, but he's about as stable as head coaches come. Roethlisberger joined Brady and Aaron Rodgersas the only Tier 1 quarterbacks in my 42-voter league survey this past offseason, which means the Steelers aren't far behind New England when it comes to checking three key boxes: franchise stability, head coach and quarterback.
"The Todd Haley-Mike Tomlin mix lets Ben's playmaking shine -- fourth down, two-point tries, throwing the ball in the four-minute offense, you name it," a veteran defensive coach said. "Their D looks fast and physical, and their pass rush made a pretty good QB [Andy Dalton] look pedestrian."
3. Denver Broncos
The teams above Denver have quarterbacks great enough to lead them back from behind. Trevor Siemian is not yet and might never become that type of player, but if the Broncos' defense keeps playing the way it is playing, Denver might not need his heroics to defend its championship.
"Von Miller is their QB," said a personnel evaluator who placed Denver atop his list, ahead of the Steelers, Patriots, Packers, Ravens, Texans and Giants.
Siemian does have limitations, but he also lets coach Gary Kubiak run his offense the way Kubiak wants to run it -- with the QB under center to maximize the ground game.
"There's no better cocoon for a young QB than playing with the No. 1 defense in the league and a head coach committed to running with complimentary play-action and misdirection pass," a defensive coach said. "Their pass rush is so potent that [DeMarcus] Ware and Miller beat their men and ran into each other, injuring Ware. You can't make this stuff up."
The promise of Denver's running game combined with the dominance of the Broncos' defense equals a familiar winning formula.
"It's the same formula as last season," the personnel evaluator said. "Run the ball, keep it close and your dudes will mess up before ours do. Defense wins championships."
4. Houston Texans
Brock Osweiler has four touchdowns with five interceptions in his last three starts, including his final start with Denver last season. It's not much to go on. The Texans will find out whether they can trust Osweiler with the football in critical moments. They shouldn't need him to carry the offense, but they do have the offensive weaponry to strike for big plays in the passing game.
A healthy and productive Jadeveon Clowney upgrades a defense that ranked fifth in expected points added (EPA) last season.
"Clowney, J.J. Watt and [Whitney] Mercilus are all first-round picks who are rushing the passer at a first-round level," a defensive coach said. "The question is just whether the offense can become cohesive enough over the course of the season."
5. Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson's injury changes everything. What are the Vikings going to do only a couple weeks after trading for Sam Bradford -- trade for the rights to Marshawn Lynch? Bradford was about as good as he could have been in beating Green Bay on Sunday night, but make no mistake, the Vikings will have to win with their defense. They did go 7-9 in 2014 with 12 rookie starts from Teddy Bridgewater and only one game from Peterson.
"How many hits can their offense take?" a veteran coach asked. "They have a strong front office and head coach and are flexible enough to change their approach, but all their victory Sunday night gives them is a slight edge in the division -- for now."
6. New York Giants
You know the narrative. All the Giants have to do is get into the playoffs so that Eli Manning can get on another one of his championship-delivering postseason hot streaks. There were no takers Sunday night.
"They will falter," a personnel evaluator said. "They have too many new pieces."
Those new pieces were good enough for the Giants to edge Dallas when the Cowboys were breaking in a rookie fifth-round draft choice at quarterback. Those pieces were good enough to hold off New Orleans in a bizarre game at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. And if you look around the NFC East, who is standing between the Giants and a spot in the playoffs? It's enough for a Giants fan to dream.
"You really have no idea how these teams without the top few quarterbacks are going to do in January," a defensive coach said.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
It's tempting to place the Eagles over the Giants based on Carson Wentz exceeding realistic rookie expectations, but Wentz's propensity for inviting unnecessary punishment places him at high risk for injury. Wentz missed games at North Dakota State. He suffered a broken rib during the NFL preseason. He is going to get hurt again unless he changes his playing style. The Giants, meanwhile, have a QB with 196 consecutive starts, counting playoffs.
8. Baltimore Ravens
Beating Buffalo and Cleveland (after trailing the Browns 20-2) doesn't move the needle much. Winning at Jacksonville this coming week won't either. The season's final month will speak loudly. The Ravens visit New England, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati during a four-week stretch beginning Dec. 12
Eight NFL teams emerged from Week 2 unbeaten, although the Minnesota Vikings probably do not feel like it after seeing quarterback Teddy Bridgewaterget injured in the preseason and running back Adrian Peterson go down in Week 2
We won't schedule parades in September, but the fast starts provide a chance to get an early read on which unbeaten teams pass the "for real" test. Here are my rankings of the 2-0 teams, informed by insights from league insiders:
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots are both the most stable and adaptable team, which makes them the most reliable.
New England can and will win games a variety of ways -- by plan. The Patriots will throw the ball 50 times by design one week and run it 40 times by design another week.
After making winning with Tom Brady appear automatic for years, they won with Jimmy Garoppolo in his place for two weeks. They might have a harder time beating Houston on a short week with rookie third-round pick Jacoby Brissett making his first start. Then again, they might not, because the season's first couple of weeks have only added concrete by the truckload to firm up Belichick's reputation as the NFL's best coach.
"What's changed?" an NFL team executive said. "Win with Brady, win without him. Win with Gronk, win without him. Where will they be in January? Same place they always are -- in the AFC Championship Game with a great shot at winning it all."
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were one of the very good teams to make my preseason overrated list, only because I thought it was tough banking on all their key players' availability late in the year. Ben Roethlisberger misses games periodically. Le'Veon Bell carries suspension and injury concerns.
But as a personnel evaluator reminded me, the Steelers came close to beating Denver in the playoffs last season without Bell or receiver Antonio Brownplaying a snap. This season, their defense held both Washington and Cincinnati to 16 points apiece, masking cornerback deficiencies in the process.
Coach Mike Tomlin can be adventuresome in clock management, but he's about as stable as head coaches come. Roethlisberger joined Brady and Aaron Rodgersas the only Tier 1 quarterbacks in my 42-voter league survey this past offseason, which means the Steelers aren't far behind New England when it comes to checking three key boxes: franchise stability, head coach and quarterback.
"The Todd Haley-Mike Tomlin mix lets Ben's playmaking shine -- fourth down, two-point tries, throwing the ball in the four-minute offense, you name it," a veteran defensive coach said. "Their D looks fast and physical, and their pass rush made a pretty good QB [Andy Dalton] look pedestrian."
3. Denver Broncos
The teams above Denver have quarterbacks great enough to lead them back from behind. Trevor Siemian is not yet and might never become that type of player, but if the Broncos' defense keeps playing the way it is playing, Denver might not need his heroics to defend its championship.
"Von Miller is their QB," said a personnel evaluator who placed Denver atop his list, ahead of the Steelers, Patriots, Packers, Ravens, Texans and Giants.
Siemian does have limitations, but he also lets coach Gary Kubiak run his offense the way Kubiak wants to run it -- with the QB under center to maximize the ground game.
"There's no better cocoon for a young QB than playing with the No. 1 defense in the league and a head coach committed to running with complimentary play-action and misdirection pass," a defensive coach said. "Their pass rush is so potent that [DeMarcus] Ware and Miller beat their men and ran into each other, injuring Ware. You can't make this stuff up."
The promise of Denver's running game combined with the dominance of the Broncos' defense equals a familiar winning formula.
"It's the same formula as last season," the personnel evaluator said. "Run the ball, keep it close and your dudes will mess up before ours do. Defense wins championships."
4. Houston Texans
Brock Osweiler has four touchdowns with five interceptions in his last three starts, including his final start with Denver last season. It's not much to go on. The Texans will find out whether they can trust Osweiler with the football in critical moments. They shouldn't need him to carry the offense, but they do have the offensive weaponry to strike for big plays in the passing game.
A healthy and productive Jadeveon Clowney upgrades a defense that ranked fifth in expected points added (EPA) last season.
"Clowney, J.J. Watt and [Whitney] Mercilus are all first-round picks who are rushing the passer at a first-round level," a defensive coach said. "The question is just whether the offense can become cohesive enough over the course of the season."
5. Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson's injury changes everything. What are the Vikings going to do only a couple weeks after trading for Sam Bradford -- trade for the rights to Marshawn Lynch? Bradford was about as good as he could have been in beating Green Bay on Sunday night, but make no mistake, the Vikings will have to win with their defense. They did go 7-9 in 2014 with 12 rookie starts from Teddy Bridgewater and only one game from Peterson.
"How many hits can their offense take?" a veteran coach asked. "They have a strong front office and head coach and are flexible enough to change their approach, but all their victory Sunday night gives them is a slight edge in the division -- for now."
6. New York Giants
You know the narrative. All the Giants have to do is get into the playoffs so that Eli Manning can get on another one of his championship-delivering postseason hot streaks. There were no takers Sunday night.
"They will falter," a personnel evaluator said. "They have too many new pieces."
Those new pieces were good enough for the Giants to edge Dallas when the Cowboys were breaking in a rookie fifth-round draft choice at quarterback. Those pieces were good enough to hold off New Orleans in a bizarre game at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. And if you look around the NFC East, who is standing between the Giants and a spot in the playoffs? It's enough for a Giants fan to dream.
"You really have no idea how these teams without the top few quarterbacks are going to do in January," a defensive coach said.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
It's tempting to place the Eagles over the Giants based on Carson Wentz exceeding realistic rookie expectations, but Wentz's propensity for inviting unnecessary punishment places him at high risk for injury. Wentz missed games at North Dakota State. He suffered a broken rib during the NFL preseason. He is going to get hurt again unless he changes his playing style. The Giants, meanwhile, have a QB with 196 consecutive starts, counting playoffs.
8. Baltimore Ravens
Beating Buffalo and Cleveland (after trailing the Browns 20-2) doesn't move the needle much. Winning at Jacksonville this coming week won't either. The season's final month will speak loudly. The Ravens visit New England, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati during a four-week stretch beginning Dec. 12
