The Rams have received criticism for providing early contract extensions to players who, for various reasons, are no longer on the team. From a dead money standpoint, it is not difficult to understand these critiques. That said, there is a more than a bit of hindsight at work here.
I’m going to look at the early extensions for three of these players - Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks - from a “what if?” standpoint and postulate what would have happened if we had waited until their contracts expired.
Jared Goff
Goff’s rookie deal, which would have expired this offseason, was extended in September 2019. What if, instead, the Rams simply picked up the 5th year option (which they undoubtedly would have done) and let him play out the 2020 season?
Presumably, we still would have entered the 2021 offseason with a desire to move on from Goff. The difference would have been that Goff would have been a UFA and, consequently, would not have been a trade asset. I think its safe to say that we still would have made the Jalen Ramsey trade, so we would not have a 2021 first round pick to offer. Given this, I think its likely we still would have made a run at Matthew Stafford. To get him, we’d still have to beat out the other suitors. Would our 2022 and 2023 first round picks have been enough? Perhaps, but perhaps not. Without Goff in the mix, Detroit would have needed to consider its own QB situation. That would have made offers for 2021 early first round picks (i.e. Carolina’s offer of the 8th pick) tempting. We likely would have needed to add more – perhaps this year’s second round pick.
So, in the end, we would have had less dead cap money, but possibly the same QB (Stafford) and fewer draft picks.
Todd Gurley
Gurley’s rookie deal, which would have expired in the 2020 offseason, was extended in July 2018. What if, instead, the Rams picked up Gurley’s option, and let him play out his contract?
Presumably, Gurley would have still had his strong 2018 campaign (with its oddly poor ending in the playoffs), so we would have retained him in 2019. At the end of the 2019 season, we presumably would have simply declined to re-sign him, given the concerns about his knee and his declining production.
We still would have drafted Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers, so our RB situation would be the same today. The only difference is dead money.
Brandin Cooks
Cooks’ contract, set to expire in 2019, was extended in July 2018. What if we had waited?
Cooks would have given us the same strong 2018 season, and then been a UFA. At that point, we certainly would have wished to re-sign him but, given his option of testing the market at that point, he may have cost more. Assume we paid that price, and he then had the 2019 down year.
Perhaps we try to make that same trade (to the Texans for a 2nd round pick), but would Cooks’ contract have been too rich for that deal, forcing us to take less (maybe a 3rd round pick)? If you assume the same trade, then we’re right back where we are now: no Cooks, a 2nd round pick (used on Van Jefferson), and dead money.
So, in the end, things probably would not have turned out much differently from a personnel standpoint. From a cap room standpoint, we would have had less dead cap from the Goff and Gurley departures, but the same or, perhaps, a bit more, from the Cooks departure. We also may have ended up with less total draft capital, having to invest even more picks for Stafford, and getting less for Cooks.
My overall impression is the criticism of the early deals is not entirely unwarranted, but certainly is overblown. The Rams have given early extensions to others (Woods, Kupp, Ramsey) that seem to be working out.
In the end, as long as we keep having winning seasons and making the playoffs, its hard to question the results. There may seem to be a bit of madness in the method, but there is method to the madness.
I’m going to look at the early extensions for three of these players - Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks - from a “what if?” standpoint and postulate what would have happened if we had waited until their contracts expired.
Jared Goff
Goff’s rookie deal, which would have expired this offseason, was extended in September 2019. What if, instead, the Rams simply picked up the 5th year option (which they undoubtedly would have done) and let him play out the 2020 season?
Presumably, we still would have entered the 2021 offseason with a desire to move on from Goff. The difference would have been that Goff would have been a UFA and, consequently, would not have been a trade asset. I think its safe to say that we still would have made the Jalen Ramsey trade, so we would not have a 2021 first round pick to offer. Given this, I think its likely we still would have made a run at Matthew Stafford. To get him, we’d still have to beat out the other suitors. Would our 2022 and 2023 first round picks have been enough? Perhaps, but perhaps not. Without Goff in the mix, Detroit would have needed to consider its own QB situation. That would have made offers for 2021 early first round picks (i.e. Carolina’s offer of the 8th pick) tempting. We likely would have needed to add more – perhaps this year’s second round pick.
So, in the end, we would have had less dead cap money, but possibly the same QB (Stafford) and fewer draft picks.
Todd Gurley
Gurley’s rookie deal, which would have expired in the 2020 offseason, was extended in July 2018. What if, instead, the Rams picked up Gurley’s option, and let him play out his contract?
Presumably, Gurley would have still had his strong 2018 campaign (with its oddly poor ending in the playoffs), so we would have retained him in 2019. At the end of the 2019 season, we presumably would have simply declined to re-sign him, given the concerns about his knee and his declining production.
We still would have drafted Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers, so our RB situation would be the same today. The only difference is dead money.
Brandin Cooks
Cooks’ contract, set to expire in 2019, was extended in July 2018. What if we had waited?
Cooks would have given us the same strong 2018 season, and then been a UFA. At that point, we certainly would have wished to re-sign him but, given his option of testing the market at that point, he may have cost more. Assume we paid that price, and he then had the 2019 down year.
Perhaps we try to make that same trade (to the Texans for a 2nd round pick), but would Cooks’ contract have been too rich for that deal, forcing us to take less (maybe a 3rd round pick)? If you assume the same trade, then we’re right back where we are now: no Cooks, a 2nd round pick (used on Van Jefferson), and dead money.
So, in the end, things probably would not have turned out much differently from a personnel standpoint. From a cap room standpoint, we would have had less dead cap from the Goff and Gurley departures, but the same or, perhaps, a bit more, from the Cooks departure. We also may have ended up with less total draft capital, having to invest even more picks for Stafford, and getting less for Cooks.
My overall impression is the criticism of the early deals is not entirely unwarranted, but certainly is overblown. The Rams have given early extensions to others (Woods, Kupp, Ramsey) that seem to be working out.
In the end, as long as we keep having winning seasons and making the playoffs, its hard to question the results. There may seem to be a bit of madness in the method, but there is method to the madness.
