What I think is gonna happen

[jrry32]

Now hold on a sec.I agree that Goff's the slightly better passer. I didn't say passing was LESS important. I'm outright saying that this system has serious schematic flaws that can't just be defeated with a nicely thrown ball. Plus, you can't complete a pass for a play that's never called or never drawn up.

Mack, we threw the ball over 550 times with Bradford in 2012. We not going to refuse to pass if we have a starting caliber QB.

And any scheme's flaws can be defeated by nicely thrown balls. I understand what you're saying but I don't fully agree. Do we have a QB friendly offense? No. But is it the QB destroyer you're making it out to be? Also no.

C'mon, really? Tom Brady has been playing in the EP offense since he got to New England. Same system. Brees, same thing with Asshole Face's Gulf Coast WCO. They know those offenses inside out and backwards after YEARS of being in those offenses which makes it easier to substitute out the other skill positions as Brady and Brees have demonstrated...AND which makes my point that having a coherent and dedicated offensive system in which a pure passer can thrive can be a major part of the development of a Franchise QB. It certainly was a big part of Roethlisberger's development. Peyton Manning was in the same system for all of his career except the last one. Denver agreed to run his system and he set records in Denver even as everyone ELSE switched. Why? Because the QB is the hub of the offense. Thus, he could produce even as guys were in or out. Same with Aaron Rodgers. Same with Philip Rivers. Every last one of those guys have one thing in common: The same offensive system their entire time (I think Big Ben switched to the EP a few years in, but still) and a full commitment to a coherent and dynamic offense.

The system Tom Brady was playing in has changed significantly over the years. It may still be the same system in name but it's not the same system in substance. Drew Brees was pretty darn productive in San Diego in the Air Coryell offense despite playing Marty-Ball. And then he was very productive his first year in New Orleans without a great supporting cast.

What is Goff coming into? Is he coming into a fully committed WCO with personnel that fits a WCO and that can adapt to personnel changes and is dynamic to adjust to defenses and game situations? No? Perhaps a Earhardt Perkins system? A Coryell variant? No?

Hmmm. He's coming into a team that fits from a personnel perspective a power running, play action vertical passing offense that would indicate an EP variant that Pittsburgh runs or a Coryell variant like Washington ran during the 80s. The presence of Tavon Austin as well as the big WRs would indicate that the personnel favors the EP variant. However, the scheme is a quasi-WCO with elements from other systems cobbled together to get Tavon more touches and, hopefully, allow Gurley to break long runs.

I'll say it, again. IF...IF we had a stable system like Payton's Gulf Coast WCO (especially that because it would emphasize Goff's processing), then the choice would be easy. WE DON'T. The point of what Wentz would bring isn't that he'd be a running QB like Kaep or RG3.../shudder. No. It's that he'd be a threat to create with more than the pass. Might he have a playcalled bootleg once or twice a game like Wilson? Sure. It lets teams know that they have to keep backside contain. That LB can't be peekin'. If he does, Wentz could pull a Wilson and fake a handoff and run for a critical first down when the LBs crash the box as we've seen Wilson do time and time again. Wilson's not a running QB, but he's a QB who takes advantage of opportunities and he keeps defenses honest. Lynch had a slightly easier time because teams couldn't just stack the box on them like they wanted to.

We don't know what the system is. This is Boras's first year as OC and Groh's first year as passing game coordinator.

If teams stack the box against us, Goff will make them pay. So will Tavon.

Would that have made Wentz's prospects awesome? Not likely. I got hyped a bit while just looking at the game vids and thought maybe so for a minute, but once I started watching the Rams vids... nah. I couldn't maintain that. But with what the new prospect was walking into, the reality of it... I thought Wentz could have more success than Goff. And yes, the more I look at it, the more I realize it's likely shades of meager.

You're a bit too pessimistic here. QBs tend to make everything better. Especially good ones.

Firstly, he's pretty tough to bring down. Wilson and Rodgers slow down the rush and neither are major running threats. And, I'm sorry, Goff is just not Brady or Brees. That's hyperbole. The most I'll say about Wentz is that he reminds me of Big Ben and a shade of Cam or could be used like Wilson to keep defenses honest. Let's get the Gold Jacket off these guys who've never taken a snap. It's not like going up against Brady or Brees because Goff has never played at this speed and he'll struggle at the pro level. Just like Aikman did. Just like P Manning did. Just like Tom Brady did (he won some games, but his play was borderline). Just like a bunch did. And maybe, just maybe...he'll be good and maybe after that he'll be better than that. Oh, and pretty sure the 2007 NY Giants proved they don't always find daylight when they sacked Brady 5 times on their way to winning the Super Bowl. Again, part of "always finding their way out" is that they know their systems so well, that they know where all the pieces are and know where they need to go to make a play. WE don't have a system that will give ANY of our QBs that. So when the pocket breaks down, they won't have that same thing. It's not just sliding to slide. Brady slides one way versus another because one way allows him a chance to make a play. Far too often when our pocket breaks down...there IS NO PLAY TO BE MADE. Watch the last few Rams games and see if you disagree.

Wilson is a major running threat.

You know what...if a team proves that Goff can't always find daylight in the Super Bowl, I'll accept that.

Why don't we have a system that will give our QBs that? Are you saying that Goff and Wentz can't learn the system? Are you saying that the system won't be around?

And I strongly disagree that there was no play to be made last year. There were plenty of plays to be made that were left on the field.

If there's anything that Goff is incredible at, it's moving within the pocket and knowing exactly where his WRs are when it comes time to get rid of the ball.

Ryan led the Falcons to the playoffs in a weak conference. And I'm supposed to get all excited about the "Franchise QB" who throws 28 TDs? What is this, 1988? Fitzpatrick threw 31 TDs last year for the Jets... Fitzpatrick. And I'm supposed to get excited that Goff could one day be Ryan and throw 28 TDs? I gotta tell ya, I'm not.

Matt Ryan was 6th in the NFL in 2010 with 28 TDs. The Falcons went 13-3. Frankly, if you can't get excited about a Rams QB throwing 28 TDs to 9 Ints in a season, I don't know what you can get excited about.

You've continued to insist that Fisher will never open up the offense. So if a Rams QB is throwing 28 TDs to 9 ints, he's doing that on a moderate number of attempts. And if he's doing that, I have a strong feeling that Gurley is doing big things. That bodes pretty damn well for our offense.

So yes, I'd be quite happy with 28 TDs from Goff. I'd also be quite happy with 3 playoff appearances in his first 3 seasons. But if that's not good enough for you, so be it.

By the way, Ryan Fitzpatrick's 31 TDs in 2015 tied Aaron Rodgers for 10th in the NFL. So let's not act like 31 TDs is some minuscule number in today's NFL.

And the best part of all this is that Matt Ryan is hardly Jared Goff's ceiling as a player.

You're funny. Now you're on board with Fisher cuz he got Goff? You wanted Fisher fired a year ago and now you have faith that he's going to adapt because he got the guy you wanted?

Okay, I guess. /shrug

No. I still wish we had moved on. I'd rather have Hue Jackson as our HC. But the Rams kept Fisher. That's not changing. I spent a lot of time this off-season complaining about not getting my way. The Rams did what I asked. They traded up for one of the top QBs in the draft. So I'm going to give it a chance. I'm going to enjoy it. And I'm going to be optimistic. Whether the QB is Goff or Wentz, I'm happy they took the chance to get one of those two guys. It makes me feel good about our chances and it gives me hope that this team has a bright future.

There's no point in me looking for the worst in this situation. I have no idea what the offensive system will look like. We have a new OC and a new passing game coordinator. I have no idea what the protection will be like. I have no idea how our young QB will play. But I'm going to hope for the best and enjoy the Rams making the most important pick they've made in a number of years...even more important than the pick in 2010. This is a franchise defining pick. And I don't think they can get it wrong. By god, that feels fucking great to me.

 

[Mackeyser]

Here's another thing, Hard Knocks is taking my advice. What does L.A. need? Another Joe Cool arriving in town or a guy riding into town on a bison with guns blazing and Chris Stapleton blaring in the background. Rams want to make an impact and that qualifies in my book. Hard Knocks agree and it's going to be a hell of a show. Stay tuned!

God love you guys, man.

Get your Goff gear. He's gonna need all of our help (and prayers...)

 

[Mackeyser]

We don't know what the system is. This is Boras's first year as OC and Groh's first year as passing game coordinator.

You honestly think they're going to install a new offense? Whew, okay. The sheer logistics say that's not happening, but okay.

Why don't we have a system that will give our QBs that? Are you saying that Goff and Wentz can't learn the system? Are you saying that the system won't be around?

I'm saying we don't have a tried and true system (ANY variant) and Fisher believes in his patchwork system. And this is just it. I made my bones as a Network Engineer/Systems Analyst/Multimedia Engineer. Worked on a few big projects and then invented something pretty big that was better than (my part at least) what Mark Cuban sold to Yahoo for over a billion dollars. Patterns are my thing. I literally see them in my sleep, although lately I'm mostly comatose if I can get to sleep. It's so genetic (my wife is that way, too...) that one of our kids is autistic. I say this because I sometimes look at this from an entirely different perspective. I come at it sometimes not from a pure football perspective, but from a point of fail states, stress points, bottlenecks, etc. Systems should be dynamic. They should adapt. I can see the coherency (that word means something, specifically: A system is coherent when each of its working components is beneficial to the system) in the various WCO variants, EP variants and Coryell variants around the league.

I do NOT see coherency in the Rams offensive system. Hoping that personnel can simply "play better" and overcome the shortcomings or the "not-coming-at-alls" is truly faith. It is not rational. Boras isn't going to install a new offense because it's been a complete disaster every time they tried a new Offense or even tried to tinker. We're not getting a new offense. More importantly, Fisher believes in this offense. How many times has he touted our final 4 games? Between that and his "study" about the 17 points, this offensive system is going nowhere.

I got however much @flv will let me bet that Boras isn't installing a new offense. All my ROD $s if allowed. It wouldn't, but I'd go all in. It's just not happening.

And to be clear, I would LOVE, LOVE, LOVE for the Rams to install any coherent offense. I still think that we have the personnel best suited for the EP variant. If Goff is as good as everyone believes he can be, he'll shine in it. As will Gurley in the Le'Veon Bell role. A Coryell variant wouldn't be terrible, either. Both are highly adaptable as we've seen.

And I strongly disagree that there was no play to be made last year. There were plenty of plays to be made that were left on the field.

If there's anything that Goff is incredible at, it's moving within the pocket and knowing exactly where his WRs are when it comes time to get rid of the ball.

Okay, he's incredible. I guess the season is a formality at this point. Good to know.

Matt Ryan was 6th in the NFL in 2010 with 28 TDs. The Falcons went 13-3. Frankly, if you can't get excited about a Rams QB throwing 28 TDs to 9 Ints in a season, I don't know what you can get excited about.

I knew something about that was sticking in my craw...the entire NFC stunk that year. Not one team in the NFC West had a winning record. That's the year Seattle went to the playoffs with a 7-9 record. That Falcons team played the lowly NFC West and the AFC North that had two teams with 5 wins or less. The minute they got to a game that mattered, they got embarrassed. Only our beloved 1978 Rams got beat worse. So, can I get excited about a QB that got a 13-3 record on the back of a Colts schedule that we'll never, ever see as long as Carroll and Arians are coaching in the division and a QB that's become pedestrian over time? Meh.

Funny thing is that we quite literally have all the pieces to be the next Pittsburgh including the personality and will. I believe Goff could run it. I'd have preferred Wentz, but Goff? Sure. Why not? We'd have a power rushing attack coupled with a dynamic play action passing game. Holy COW! Now wouldn't THAT be something? And as we've seen with how Coach Belicheck runs his EP variant in NE, it's ridiculously flexible. The only limits are the QB, really.

You've continued to insist that Fisher will never open up the offense. So if a Rams QB is throwing 28 TDs to 9 ints, he's doing that on a moderate number of attempts. And if he's doing that, I have a strong feeling that Gurley is doing big things. That bodes pretty damn well for our offense.

So yes, I'd be quite happy with 28 TDs from Goff. I'd also be quite happy with 3 playoff appearances in his first 3 seasons. But if that's not good enough for you, so be it.

By the way, Ryan Fitzpatrick's 31 TDs in 2015 tied Aaron Rodgers for 10th in the NFL. So let's not act like 31 TDs is some minuscule number in today's NFL.

And the best part of all this is that Matt Ryan is hardly Jared Goff's ceiling as a player.

Matt Ryan wasn't the comp for Goff that I chose. But I'm not going to anoint him as the second coming, either. And let's be clear, I really, really like Andrew Luck, but he got to the playoffs because the Colts played in the crap division. That Colts team in the NFC North, AFC North or NFC West most years would be a .500 team...at best. They certainly didn't have to play the Thunderdome type games that are NFC West games...I'm not sure a win isn't a Pyrrhic victory in some cases. So just saying, "Ryan got to the playoffs 3 years in a row", well, context. Goff is coming to the NFC West....in 2016. He's not going to the 2012 Colts. He's not going to the 2008 Falcons. He's not going to a weak division and he's not getting any weak schedules.

As for 28 or 31 TDs, for a Rams QB, it'd be a revelation. We haven't seen that since biblical times... But this isn't fantasy football. It's not an all-star game. They're going to have to put a plan together. For four years now, we've seen all sorts of incarnations of what that looks like. You were so disgusted a year ago that you wanted Fisher fired. Now, they draft Wentz and you have newfound faith in Fisher? Okay. God bless, I guess.

No. I still wish we had moved on. I'd rather have Hue Jackson as our HC. But the Rams kept Fisher. That's not changing. I spent a lot of time this off-season complaining about not getting my way. The Rams did what I asked. They traded up for one of the top QBs in the draft. So I'm going to give it a chance. I'm going to enjoy it. And I'm going to be optimistic. Whether the QB is Goff or Wentz, I'm happy they took the chance to get one of those two guys. It makes me feel good about our chances and it gives me hope that this team has a bright future.

There's no point in me looking for the worst in this situation. I have no idea what the offensive system will look like. We have a new OC and a new passing game coordinator. I have no idea what the protection will be like. I have no idea how our young QB will play. But I'm going to hope for the best and enjoy the Rams making the most important pick they've made in a number of years...even more important than the pick in 2010. This is a franchise defining pick. And I don't think they can get it wrong. By god, that feels freaking great to me.

Well, okay. I think it's great that you were able to turn it around like that and go from steely-eyed realist to starry-eyed optimist.

I envy you that, cuz that woulda made this past week so much easier for me... I coulda just skipped around with a "doesn't matter, we win no matter what" smile on my face.

If I could let some things go, I know I'd be happier...but I wouldn't have been the engineer I was and I wouldn't have enjoyed training triathlon as much as I did and I wouldn't have pushed nearly 3 years to get back to BJJ.

 

[jrry32]

You honestly think they're going to install a new offense? Whew, okay. The sheer logistics say that's not happening, but okay.

Nope. But you can run a new system without installing a new offense.

 

[Mackeyser]

Nope. But you can run a new system without installing a new offense.

Run a new system without installing a new offense... can you rephrase that, please. I don't understand what you are saying.

 

[Mackeyser]

I'm sure you can find videos of a Saints player doing the same thing.

It's not that a more accurate QB will improve Cook. Cook will be Cook. It's that a more accurate QB will make Cook's job easier which will make Cook look better. Getting the ball out a split second sooner can be the difference between an easy catch and having to make a catch with a defender draped on you...which is something Cook has never been good at it.

Btw, you realized that with Cook with Aaron Rodgers, we'll see what the deal is. There's never been anyone more accurate than ARod.

If your supposition is correct, Cook is in for a really big year.

 

[jrry32]

Run a new system without installing a new offense... can you rephrase that, please. I don't understand what you are saying.

An offense is more broad than a system. Generally, an offense is comprised of verbiage, a grouping of similar concepts, and a certain philosophy. A system is how you make use of those components. For example, Manning and Brady both ran Earhardt-Perkins offenses but their systems could not have been more different. Brady ran one of the most complex systems in the NFL. Manning ran one of the most simplistic. Brady's system was built around complex options and keeping defenses on their toes by throwing unexpected looks and plays at them. Manning's system was built around a small group of core plays and concepts that they could execute in their sleep. Both systems evolved and changed based on the personnel each team had.

You can also compare Asshole Face's WCO to Andy Reid's WCO to Mike Shanahan's WCO to Mike McCarthy's WCO. All are very different systems with the same base offense.

The Rams don't have to scrap the offense but they can completely change the system. Use the same verbiage and concepts but run it in a complete different way with different looks and different core packages/plays. Basically, completely revamp the offense without forcing all the players to learn everything from scratch.

 

[jrry32]

Btw, you realized that with Cook with Aaron Rodgers, we'll see what the deal is. There's never been anyone more accurate than ARod.

If your supposition is correct, Cook is in for a really big year.

Won't be a bit surprised if Cook has a good year. The Packers have a lot of weapons but Cook will have his uses for them. Don't think he'll put up anything crazy but I won't be a bit surprised if he puts up like 800 yards and 7-8 TDs.

That's if he doesn't piss the Packers and Rodgers off with his attitude and inconsistencies.

 

[dieterbrock]

Mack, Wentz didn't come out of nowhere, I've been following this QB class for over a year. Kiper had Wentz as top 3 QB last May. Both McShay and Kiper had Wentz in the first round mid season. NFL scouts come to NDSU games (we've had a player drafted the last few years), but there was a line of scouts this year for training camp. Wentz has been on the NFL radar for a while. The Senior bowl is when a lot of media scouts caught on. Rumors out of walterfootball (take it however you want) is that the Rams had a scout there to scout the QBs. Said they were really high on Wentz early on in the week. Later on in the week the same scout said we're not going to get him unless we trade up, unlikely.

I really think it's likely the pick is Wentz, but far from certain. Having studied all these QBs Goff is also really impressive.

Great post.
Totally agree. Here at Rod we have talent evaluating freak known as @jrry32 and he's been talking Wentz for a awhile. He also brought Bortles to our attention long before mainstream. Point being, if players have it, the NFL will find them no matter what.
Now I don't pretend to know what the brains know but before the Rams moved to #1, and when I thought we had no chance to get either guy I thought both were better than last year's class and up there with any prospect since luck.
We are in such good shape here I just can't believe it.

 

[Mackeyser]

Ah, we were just using different words.

I was thinking and referring to the "systems" as "variants" and using Offenses and Systems interchangeably, so your statement was confusing to me.

I understand what you're saying.

Yes, they COULD do that.

Groh was brought in to weld on some of Marc Trestman's passing game prowess within the WCO (Trestman's actually doing the job properly in Baltimore by installing his "variant" thoroughly and it doesn't change the system or terminology)

The difference is that they aren't going to put in a coherent system as I talked about and as we both define a system. They are going to sew another arm onto this abomination and think 3 arms are better than 2.

I'd LOVE it if they did put in Trestman's WCO or ANY full variant and committed to it.

I think the Rams may be the only team in the NFL without an offense. Every other team, you can say, "This team runs..."

The Los Angeles Rams run...what? You absolutely can't say they run a WCO because it's a quasi-WCO at best. I mean if definitions mean anything.

And picking an offense matters for a host of reasons that I won't bother with now because I'm getting squidgy which means I sleep or I seize, so I gotta force myself to sleep.

 

[jrry32]

Ah, we were just using different words.

I was thinking and referring to the "systems" as "variants" and using Offenses and Systems interchangeably, so your statement was confusing to me.

I understand what you're saying.

Yes, they COULD do that.

Groh was brought in to weld on some of Marc Trestman's passing game prowess within the WCO (Trestman's actually doing the job properly in Baltimore by installing his "variant" thoroughly and it doesn't change the system or terminology)

The difference is that they aren't going to put in a coherent system as I talked about and as we both define a system. They are going to sew another arm onto this abomination and think 3 arms are better than 2.

I'd LOVE it if they did put in Trestman's WCO or ANY full variant and committed to it.

I think the Rams may be the only team in the NFL without an offense. Every other team, you can say, "This team runs..."

The Los Angeles Rams run...what? You absolutely can't say they run a WCO because it's a quasi-WCO at best. I mean if definitions mean anything.

And picking an offense matters for a host of reasons that I won't bother with now because I'm getting squidgy which means I sleep or I seize, so I gotta force myself to sleep.

Eh, I think a lot more teams lack a true offensive identity than you're letting on. With how offenses have evolved, the lines have been blurred a lot between systems. A team's base offense is typically determined now by the coaching tree that their OC or HC came from and the verbiage that they use. The offenses, themselves, are very distinct and often end up taking concepts and approaches from other systems...like New England borrowing concepts and approaches from college spread offenses or Shanahan making use of a lot of Air Coryell and Read Option concepts in his WCO during the RGIII days.

The question we have with the Rams more comes from us being a Air Coryell/WCO hybrid under Schotty and then having Cignetti take over and try to turn us into a WCO. Now, we have Boras and none of us really know what he runs. I'm guessing he'll stick with the WCO base but I have no idea what his offense will look like.

 

[Mackeyser]

Well, unless he's going to install something new, we do.

We saw it and Fisher bragged about it. I'll admit he did that thing my kids do which aggravates me to no end which is why I'm sensitive to it..."if only.."

Yeah....not a fan. The games were played and we can't get "what if" credit for "just imagine if..." happened. Ugh.

It's okay. You're thinking they're going to do some cool stuff. New. Groh, Boras, Weinke... turn it out for this new passing whiz. I get it.

Like I said before, after four years of Fisher, I wish I had your faith.

 

[dieterbrock]

Mack, we threw the ball over 550 times with Bradford in 2012. We not going to refuse to pass if we have a starting caliber QB.

If you consider sacks as passing plays (which should be) our passing attempts under Fisher:
2012 554 pa + 35 sack= 589 total pass play, 411 rushes
2013 504 pa + 36 sack= 540 total pass play, 426 rushes
2014 513 pa + 47 sack= 560 total pass play, 395 rushes
2015 469 pa + 18 sack= 487 total pass play, 429 rushes
So the question comes down to 2015, is that any indication of what Fisher desires or is it just an anomaly due to the complete ineffectiveness of our QB? I think it supports the latter but even still 2015 was a 53/47 ratio pass to run so its not like we were completely adverse to throwing the ball. We were just terrible at it. (At times)

So I agree with your assertion, that with a legit QB there's no reason to think we wont see 540-560 pass plays and if we can keep the sack % in line with last year, we should expect 520-540 PA

 

[LesBaker]

When this all started this was the breakdown.

The Browns reportedly wanted Wentz at #2 and the Titans had the #1 pick.
The Jets were interested in trading to #1 (I assume to move ahead of the Browns for Wentz). Then the Trade for the #1 pick happened.
The Browns are now said to be shopping #2 pick because their guy presumably wouldn't be there any longer at the #2 pick.
The Jets (earlier this week) - realizing their offer fell short w/Titans and knowing that another team (Los Angeles) was moving to #1, they decide to bring in Goff to see whether moving up is still viable/worth it.

I see a lot written about who is the Rams target….
I view it this way - unless this is all an elaborate smoke screen, Wentz will be the #1 pick.

The Jets may well have brought in any QB just to shake things up with Fitz though.

And the Eagles, who need a QB badly, would figure that Either Wentz or Goff would be long gone by their slot at 8. So they had to make a move.

 

[99Balloons]

The Rams will draft either Goff or Wentz and expect them to start out of the gate from Day 1. No sense of drafting high and expecting them to sit and learn.

But the next critical step is Foles or Mannion will be traded for additional draft capitals this year either 4th or 5th round for a WR, TE or MLB because the Rams must replenish their talent base when some of their own will become UFAs next year.