Unofficial Rams 2020 Regular season record thread (show your work)

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Mackeyser

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Okay, hoping to start or restart this convo. I would ask even if it means tons of copy pasta to have folks say why they think a game is a win or loss.

With no further ado

Week 1 DALLAS (home): WIN

I think most home teams win this week with zero travel prep and increased requirements. Couple that with such late cuts and I think being home week 1 may be one of the biggest advantages of the season. I think it will be close as we'll be tasked with stopping the run early and often, but I like our LB corps better than most and think they're up for the job. I KNOW our secondary is. Likewise, I have a feeling that McVay is gonna unleash the RBs in creative ways that help take pressure off of Goff. I like this game, though there will be concerns all around afterward.

Week 2 PHILADELPHIA (away): WIN

They're getting bit by the injury bug at maybe the worst position to be bit against the Rams... interior OL. We match up well with them and I think our secondary is a better match against their passing game than theirs secondary is with our passing game.

Week 3 BUFFALO (away): LOSS

Just basic statistics says that winning the second of two road games is difficult. Couple that with the NFL not allowing us to remain on the east coast means two weeks of traveling to the east coast and the time change issues. We are strong enough to have a chance in every game, but early on with two weeks of travel, I expect a bit of a let down.

Week 4 NY GIANTS (home): WIN

The Giants remind me of the Fisher Rams. They have talent at important positions, but it's just not coming together. They will give some teams fits and others they'll lose ugly to. Young QB, but not enough offensive coaching to put it to work.

Week 5 WASHINGTON (away): WIN

The Rams have always been one of the best road teams in the league under McVay and Washington has pretty much been a mess under Daniel Snyder's ownership. This is an early year east coast trip and the Washington Football Team will not have an answer for any of our units.

Week 6 SAN FRANCISCO (away): WIN

The Rams know how to beat this team now and with Ramsey likely to spend a fair bit of time on Kittle and the Rams committing to the run, I think the Rams are well poised to win this slobberknocker. SF is close enough that this won't feel like a road game and the familiarity with the 49ers will obviate much of the factors which go into that "it's very difficult to win the 2nd straight away game" deal. Their D will give us problems, but Van Jefferson is a dimension we haven't had (basically 3 of the same type of receiver in Woods, Kupp and Jefferson) and if McVay would just listen to me and look at a few ways Martz used Faulk for ideas for utilizing Cam Akers, they could potentially embarrass the Niners in their own home.

Week 7 CHICAGO (home): WIN

Trubiski isn't gonna be the guy and the Bears have taken a step back in what is a tough division with both Green Bay and the Vikes working hard to improve. This isn't a game in Soldier Field in December and this is a relatively easy win for the Rams.

Week 8 MIAMI (away): WIN

The Rams are on a 5 game winning streak going to a team that only seems to rise up against their own division. Rams are on a roll and this continues in Miami

Week 9 BYE

Week 10 SEATTLE (home): WIN

McVay's Rams do very well coming off of a bye week and this is no exception. Division game at home after a bye? Yeah, this is a win. Tough win because Russell Wilson keeps them in the game.

Week 11 TAMPA (away): WIN

Rams have generally done well against Tampa unless they screw up early like the last time. Their front 7 is legit and their offense isn't likely to take a step down with Brady at the helm. Maybe fewer explosive plays, but more consistent play over all will make this a tough day for our D. That said, their D still has issues in the secondary and that's where we shine. I expect this to be a very high scoring affair with the Rams winning late.

Week 12 SAN FRANCISCO (home): WIN

We should have A'Shawn Robinson back and he's going to be slowly improving and gelling with the DL and this is the game where he shows up, really improving the run D and forcing Jimmy G to throw. Ramsey on Kittle makes it a tough day for Jimmy G. Another slobberknocker, but this win will be easier than the last one.

Week 13 ARIZONA (away): WIN

The Cards had weapons last year and a defense last year and they weren't really close. Their issues on the OL continue and while Kyler Murray improves, he's not Russell Wilson and has no idea how to handle Aaron Donald in his face all day.

Week 14 NEW ENGLAND (home): WIN

Coach B may be the best ever even as a cheater (sorta like Lance Armstrong), but I think they are undervaluing Brady and how fast his release was based on his knowledge of that offense which isn't the easiest to learn. Considering we're using a Fangio based 3-4 which uses many more disguises than Wade's D did and whoever is their QB will be facing a defense rounding into playoff form. Their D keeps it close, but our D contributes to the scoring and we win in a game that's both closer and under what oddsmakers expect.

Week 15 NEW YORK JETS (home): WIN

This is a flex game and we're likely not gonna be flexed to Sunday Night because I don't expect the Jets to do much. Sam Darnold is okay, but I just don't see the Jets getting much of a break. We're gonna be fighting like hell for home field throughout and no way we let up here.

Week 16 SEATTLE (away): LOSS

I hate these late season games in Seattle. There may be fans at this point, it'll be cold and rainy and with both teams likely playing for a playoff spot, this is gonna be one of those games where it's close, but they get us.

Week 17 ARIZONA (home): WIN

First season in the new place and this team will want to go undefeated at home and they do. AZ is gonna want to play spoiler, but we aren't gonna be resting anyone as Tampa, Green Bay and New Orleans are chasing us for that #1 spot

That's how I see it. 14-2 and the #1 spot in the NFC.

I think the NFC East is terrible this year and the Cowboys are basically a disappointment that barely squeaks into the playoffs.

I think with the Bears and Lions having down years, the NFC North isn't as competitive which leads both the Pack and the Vikes to have inflated records.

I think Carolina is gonna be a tough out, but see a lot of losses and Atlanta doesn't have a bounce back as they fail in doing the balancing act with Gurley as we did.

The teams I think are gonna be in the playoffs for the NFC are

1 Rams 14-2
2 New Orleans 13-3
3 Green Bay 12-4
4 Dallas 9-7
5 San Francisco 12-4
6 Tampa 11-5
7 Seattle 11-5

I realize this may seem very optimistic, but the only thing I'm really being optimistic about is our health and there's no accounting for that, really.

I've only given any bonus for A'Shawn Robinson in one game and I think we still win without him.

I think the league is gonna recognize how good we have it with Van Jefferson, Cam Akers is gonna be a revelation especially in the second half of the season and Terrell Lewis is gonna make waves even as a situational player because we're STACKED at OLB now.

Lastly, I think far too many of the prognosticators are looking at last year's teams, only looking at names and not contribution (e.g. slamming for losing Weddell, Matthews, Gurley and Cooks when in each case, it's been addition by subtraction). This team is better than last year's team at a number of positions and McVay has another offensive mind both to help game plan and to help ensure that he doesn't get predictable as he has in the past.

I think our floor is 10-6 and our ceiling is 16-0 insofar as every game on our schedule is winnable.

But yeah, I think we can definitely go 14-2 and this is how I see that we'd get there.
 

CGI_Ram

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I find week to week projecting difficult due to the ebb and flow of a season.

I prefer to gauge the strength in a general sense to a win % probability. But to do that... you do need to look game by game for that input.

This team feels a little stronger than given credit, to me. It doesn’t require a lot of assumption in each unit, except (for me) at linebacker. Maybe we are discussing OL a lot, but the pieces there are familiar at least. So...

I’m going 12-4. And, we need to be pretty good to do just that.

AZ, SEA, SF, DAL, BUF, PHI, TAM... That’s 10 games against teams that will win their share of games. So, you have to be above average just to win 50% of these.

Then unfortunately you stink up a game, you shouldn’t, against those remaining 6 games.

So... 12 wins is heavy lifting, IMO. Can we do better?... maybe. Can we do worse?... maybe.
 

Mackeyser

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  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #3
I have a half built spreadsheet to measure a more realistic "strength of schedule" in that it ONLY accounts for games played prior to your contest.

So week 1 has no SoS. Week 2 has only 1.

Also, if a team loses its first 5 games and we play them and beat them, then we'd be beating an 0-5 team. If they win the last 10 games and finish 10-6, that wouldn't affect our SoS because it happened after we played them.

I think that more accurately measures the SoS, because it's the SoS as of kickoff.

I dunno if I'll finish it. I'm so behind on my reading and writing that I really need to get a move on, but if I can do it, I'll do it and import it into a Google doc so everyone can play with it.
 

XXXIVwin

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Last two times Rams went to Super Bowl (2001 and 2018) I remember thinking in August, “this team is LOADED and ready for a run at the Championship.” In those years, Rams had an embarrassment of riches AND incredible depth.

In 2001, they had the GSOT on O a successful overhaul on D. In 2018, they had an insanely strong offseason.

This year, I just can’t see it. The coaching IMHO should be a significant upgrade with the addition of new coordinators on both O and D. But as for the raw talent on this year’s roster, I just don’t think it’s championship caliber yet. An absolutely ridiculous amount (42M I think) is being spent on dead money (Gurley and Cooks).

I see a lot of potential weaknesses: ILB, OLB, questionable O Line, inexperience at RB, a new K, and unproven CB depth.

Hope I’m wrong and Rams are beasts again. But IMHO a whole lot of players are gonna have to step up and shatter expectations if we are to be an elite team.

IMHO, the Rams Super Bowl window will reopen in 2021, when we’ll have great coaching AND a ton of cap space.

I think McVay is gonna come back with a vengeance and re-establish his reputation as an elite coach. But the decision to bite the bullet and take the 42M dead-money cap-hit means we just don’t have the horses this year.

I see us as a 10-6 team in 2020 and a legit SB contender in 2021.
 
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Dz1

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11/5 or 10/6 no way this is a 14 and 2 team.jmho.
 

IBruce80

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12-4.
Can't break it down week by week because of a jinx to injuries.
I am confident we top our division.
 

dang

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I am going to break it down as follows:
-They need to go at least 4-2 in their division to deserve a playoff spot.
-They have to go 5-1 against NYG, WASH, CHI, MIA, NE. NYJ to deserve a playoff spot.
-For tough games against DAL, PHI, BUF and TB going 2-2 is would be solid.
So - I want to see 11-5 otherwise they are JAG team or worse.
 

oldnotdead

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I said it months ago that I don't see the Rams being any worse than 13-3 if the o-line simply plays well. I'm only worried about Havenstein and Blythe but it's not like they don't have options for both in Edwards at RT and Allen & Shelton at C. I think the D is good enough to carry the offense until the o-line and RBs get sorted out. I have no worries about the passing game as long as the protection doesn't totally collapse. If the o-line plays well this offense will be hard to stop and the defense should be in the top 10 if not the top 5.
 

Karate61

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After reviewing all the predictions here, I say you change the thread title to "Official"!
 

TexasRam

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A few reasons why predicting a record is impossible:
1. Injuries
2. Covid possible impact
3. Injuries to other teams
4. Unpredictability of opposing teams compared to last year.

But comparing this team to last years:

Offense
Goff
Akers -- Possible improvement
Jefferson --Rookie year. Probably wash from Cooks.
Kupp
Woods
Higbee
Whitworth -- possible age falloff
Noteboom -- Possible slight improvement in pass pro
Blythe
Corbett -- Wash with Edwards
Havenstein - -Improvement in run game

Defense
Donald
Robinson --Possible improvement in run game
Brockers
Ebukam
Kiser -- dropoff from Littleton
Howard
Floyd -- possible dropoff from Fowler
Ramsey
Johnson -- improvement over Weddle
Rapp
Hill
Burgess - significant dropoff from NRC in my opinion

Depth
Significant Oline depth
possible risers in Obo and Terrell Lewis
Safety Depth
Coaching
Possible improvement with new DC and OC

I see an average defense and a mediocre Oline. I would predict 10-6 at best. 8-8 at worst.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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A few reasons why predicting a record is impossible:
1. Injuries
2. Covid possible impact
3. Injuries to other teams
4. Unpredictability of opposing teams compared to last year.

But comparing this team to last years:

Offense
Goff
Akers -- Possible improvement
Jefferson --Rookie year. Probably wash from Cooks.
Kupp
Woods
Higbee
Whitworth -- possible age falloff
Noteboom -- Possible slight improvement in pass pro
Blythe
Corbett -- Wash with Edwards
Havenstein - -Improvement in run game

Defense
Donald
Robinson --Possible improvement in run game
Brockers
Ebukam
Kiser -- dropoff from Littleton
Howard
Floyd -- possible dropoff from Fowler
Ramsey
Johnson -- improvement over Weddle
Rapp
Hill
Burgess - significant dropoff from NRC in my opinion

Depth
Significant Oline depth
possible risers in Obo and Terrell Lewis
Safety Depth
Coaching
Possible improvement with new DC and OC

I see an average defense and a mediocre Oline. I would predict 10-6 at best. 8-8 at worst.


We think alike. I said 6-8 wins this year. 10 if McVay can perform some miracles. This Oline is bad. The defense, being the first year, may take some time to come together.
 

DR RAM

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2+1-1+2-1+1-2+3-1+2-1+1= playoffs.


I think.
 

badnews

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I think we will be a contender all year and maybe win the Superbowl because I think we can throw out every convention and admit that this season won't follow traditional rules.
Any team with a great coach and a great culture with veterans who know how to lead will have a chance to win it all this year. The dysfunctional teams have no chance.
I think McVay and this Rams team have as good a shot as anyone. Like there are maybe 12 teams that have an equal chance and we are one of them so why not us?

13-3.
It totally could be
Or injuries could fuck us.
 

PressureD41

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Safe bet is 10 Wins
11 wins w/ a good break
12 if our OL can find the right combo of best 5 on game days

won't be some 7-9 bullshit, that I do know!!!
 

fearsomefour

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Too many questions.
Questions at every spot along the OL.
I like the rest of the O roster.
I like the DL (if Robinson is playing) and the DBs.
LBs.....again, nothing but questions.
If the OL struggles with level of play or swapping guys out and changing positions and the LBs are just ehhh, then 6-10 sort of year.
If the OL gels and gets a consistent enough run game to allow the passing game to flourish and the LBs are solid/good, 11-5.
I am predicting a Fisher special, 8-8.
 

RamsSince1969

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Didn't we get ranked 26th in a recent power ranking? OMG! How I want that a-hole to get some e-mails and tweets when we win the west.
 

den-the-coach

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Offensive Line is going to be a focus of concern, but I'm actually feeling better now that Noteboom is back at LG and maybe Corbett can find a home at right guard, if the OL does not improve we know the team is in serious trouble.

Tough beginning schedule as Dallas is considered an upper echelon team and their special team coach knows a thing or two about the Los Angeles Rams.

I like the defense under new DC Brandon Staley and believe the secondary is going to be a strength with the depth at CB and Safety, however, the linebackers will be a work in progress.

Jared Goff IMO, is Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde, my hope is Goff becomes more consistent and the offensive line will go along way of ensuring more of Jekyll and less of Hyde, but Goff has to take care of the football more, plus, I really like having Goff on the move with the addition of the TE in the offense moving forward.

The Coaching staff has upgrades with OC O'Connell & DC Staley, but as to special teams I believe that was a downgrade in john Bonamego, but hopefully Bonamego picks the right kicker and that won't be a revolving door moving forward.

The beginning of the season is challenging the Cowboys, then Eagles & Bills on the road with the possibility of not being able to stay in those cities, so the travel & early start times are not a good thing, but it all comes down to the offensive line and health because if the Offensive Line fails the Rams will be looking at a new OL Coach next year plus draft capital spent to improve a subpar unit.

Rams were 9-7 last year & trending down, however, I'm predicting the same record, but trending upward and with hope of Noteboom moving to LT adding a stalwart LG and bigger Center in 2021 with all systems go to challenge for a Super Bowl next year.
 

FaulkSF

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Home against Dallas - Their o line is still much better than our D line. Give Dak time to throw and Zeke room to rum, that's pretty disastrous. We won't be able to keep up offensively. 0-1

At Philly - Hobbled o line and QB playing tentative, we'll finally break the Philly curse. 1-1

At Buffalo - A good oline, defense, 2nd road game in a row, and with the addition of Fournette (calling it now), we won't play well. 1-2

Giants - Poor o line and mediocre QB play, with defensive concerns will be a victory. 2-2

Football Team- The dysfunction of this team is strong and a new coach may make for a long season. 3-2

49ers - No Phillips, no Weddle, and limited down field threats make the critics question who the best team in the West is. 4-2

Bears - Another team with question marks all over the place will make this a repeat of the slobber knocker victory from last year. 5-2

Dolphins - A team in the middle of a rebuild with an emerging secondary make this a game closer than it should be. Rams are tired heading to break, but dat 5 game win streak doe. 6-2

Seahawks - no o line, holes in D line and we're off a bye. Welcome to Donald World Russell! 7-2

Bucs - the NFC title contenders on paper with their tam wearing arrogant ass hat of a coach. As much as I hate this team i think it's a trap and we lose. Arians always has something ready for us and last year it was our inability to defend the middle of the field. 7-3

SF - they make some adjustments from the first game, get a couple receivers back, and continue to attack us where Arians left off. 7-4

Arizona - We get Arizona after a two game losing streak? Great news for the Rams. 8-4

Pats- Their offense has dropped off with Cam and Stidham at the helm. We do just enough to win. Bellicheat doesn't even bother to shake Sean's hand. 9-4

Jets - Another team in disarray, another victory. 10-4

Seahawks - At this point Hawks are playing for another draft pick that they will probably fail on again. 11-4

Cards - we'll have a spot locked up before the game starts. A win could potentially put us in a Bye. Donald will be playing for some sort of defensive record. 12-4 NFC West champs.
 
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