Total defense (yards v points)

[Rambitious1]

I think scoring should be the yardstick.
However, not the way it is used by most today.

I think points scored by the opposing team's defense/special teams must be deducted to give a 'true' points vs D stat.

For points scored by a team's special teams, track that to special teams.
For points surrendered via pick/fumble 6's track them to the offense.
For points scored after turnovers in your own territory, track that to the offense.

Just off the top of my head. That may not be the best solution, but something like it I think would be more accurate for all of the team's squads.

 

[Ellard80]

I'll throw the stat I really think is key in...

With Robert Quinn
323 ypg 18.25 pgg

Without Robert Quinn
411 ypg 23. ppg

(also... notice how yards and pts correlate...)

 

[RAMpage28]

I'll throw the stat I really think is key in...

With Robert Quinn
323 ypg 18.25 pgg

Without Robert Quinn
411 ypg 23. ppg

But there are more factors that influence those stats such as strength of opponent, other injuries, turnovers, home vs. away, turf or grass, indoors or outdoors, Foles playing like garbage, etc.

This is the next debate to have.

 

[LACHAMP46]

Nobody cares about how many yards you allow if you don't allow the other team to score.

but rarely, if ever, will more yards allow, not have an effect on total points...

Your argument fails by chalking it up to luck. How does a team continue to get lucky for two full seasons?

Luck....that's all I got...more yards given up...guarantee more points will follow...how do you limit points? Control the yardage...

yards allowed per game or points allowed per game, I'm picking points allowed per game no doubt..........But there are more factors that influence those stats such as strength of opponent, other injuries, turnovers, home vs. away, turf or grass, indoors or outdoors, Foles playing like garbage, etc.

This is the next debate to have.

he just showed you, with this team, how 50 more yards = 5 more points...what else do you need???:deadhorse:

 

[Ellard80]

But there are more factors that influence those stats such as strength of opponent, other injuries, turnovers, home vs. away, turf or grass, indoors or outdoors, Foles playing like garbage, etc.

This is the next debate to have.

Oh I agree there are other factors.. but I think when our defense is much less formidable without Quinn...

To clarify they are a top 10 defense on points against. That is probably about the ONLY stat they are.
But you didn't say that. And I'm sure because that's the only stat YOU use it makes sense.
If you poled most people they would probably use the same stats I use. You can go to NFL.com or just about ANY publication that uses metrics They all say the same thing I'm saying. It's not nonsense or something I made up.
I love the RAMS but outside of one metric you chose to use they are not a top 10 defense. That is a fact. I said many factors are used to rank defenses, you said only one counts. Quite frankly you are trying to shove your opinion down my throat. I gave you factual data. I never cherry picked on piece like you did. I never once said points against wasn't important. Not ONCE. I simply said that it's not the main metric used to determine rankings. Let me say again...RANKINGS. So next time you're watching NFL live and they talking about rankings, call ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX or whoever you want and tell them they are wrong because they don't use Jrry's formula. I'm sure you'll be able to convince them as well..

It is interesting that they the league always uses yards when talking about team rankings...

 

[RAMpage28]

Oh I agree there are other factors.. but I think when our defense is much less formidable without Quinn...

Having Quinn is most definitely a plus for this defense as it would be for any defense.

 

[bwdenverram]

Jrry and I had a virtual hug-LOL it's all good.
It's never personal bro and I always appreciate and respect you and your opinion.

Now- about the offense

 

[Ellard80]

Jrry and I had a virtual hug-LOL it's all good.
It's never personal bro and I always appreciate and respect you and your opinion.

Now- about the offense

lol... I can't imagine that anyone could defense the poop-titude of our offense.

32nd in yardage... 29th in ppg.

 

[Florida_Ram]

Jrry and I had a virtual hug-LOL it's all good.
It's never personal bro and I always appreciate and respect you and your opinion.

Its about damn time.....

 

[bwdenverram]

lol... I can't imagine that anyone could defense the poop-titude of our offense.

32nd in yardage... 29th in ppg.

I think we will be much improved this year. I mean even if we get to 15-20 that takes a lot of pressure off the D.

 

[fearsomefour]

One major thing that will help the Rams is the offense being decent. Not having endless three and outs will certainly help yards against. Avoiding the big plays on D (broken tackles) and turnovers on O and the Rams D will be fine.

 

[Fatbot]

Luck....that's all I got...

Yes the luck factor is often underrated. It's part of why the correlation of yards to points isn't 1-to-1 -- random stuff happens. Plus 16 games isn't a very big sample size so football already has a lot of statistical noise. The even smaller amount of red zone trips means success in the red zone is very hard to trust.

That's why I think accepting bend-don't-break and counting on the Rams' red zone strength is a bad thing. There is no strong year-to-year correlation in a team's red zone performance. A team great in the red zone one year is not often great the next, what usually happens is that team regresses to being less successful in the red zone the following year.

To me this thread has never been framed correctly. The two stats are good at different things. Points says what it is, but you look to yards if you want to understand the why behind it.

Good article here sums it up:

Dan Fouts, former quarterback and Monday Night Football analyst, can explain this better than I can. Or actually, Will Ferrell playing Dan Fouts on Saturday Night Live can. "Al, my prediction is that the team that scores more points than the other team will probably be the winner tonight. Back to you, Al."

Of course, a team that scores a lot of points and allows fewer points will win often. There is no mystery there. And lots of guys who predict NFL games or try to beat the point spread use such stats, or things like "red zone points" in various models. In fact, these kind of models probably predict game outcomes well, but would be completely invalid if you really wanted to learn anything new about how the game really works.

Models that use points scored or points allowed, or variations of either, are no more analytical than Dan Fouts. We already know that the ability to score more points than another team leads to winning. Thanks, Dan. The question is: what enables some teams to score more than others?​

 

[LACHAMP46]

The question is: what enables some teams to score more than others?

Me likey FATBOT!!!! I got a bunch of reading to catch up on.....here's where I'm starting...coming for you @jrry32 So, I'll concede, you win..for right now....

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/01/top-offenses-top-defenses.html