Total defense (yards v points)

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dieterbrock

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So answer this then: Two teams, one gives up 375 yards per game, the other gives up 310 yards per game.
Which one do you think is going to give up the fewer amount of points 9 times out of 10?

Pretty easy answer and why yards allowed is important. They generally go hand in hand.
Maybe we were #8 in scoring defense for one year but if you ask your defense to give up that many yards every game at some point history would probably say you won't be able to hold forever.

Moral of the story is get off the damn field sooner then later.
Do you have the actual answer for this or is it your opinion?
Because if I'm reading this correctly, you are saying that yardage and points are in direct correlation 90% of the time
If so, then ppg allowed definitely is the more accurate metric
 

bwdenverram

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Do you have the actual answer for this or is it your opinion?
Because if I'm reading this correctly, you are saying that yardage and points are in direct correlation 90% of the time
If so, then ppg allowed definitely is the more accurate metric

No, I don't have the exact data. But do you really think a team that gives up 65 more yards a game is going to give up less points on avg? Come on man..
 

dieterbrock

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No, I don't have the exact data. But do you really think a team that gives up 65 more yards a game is going to give up less points on avg? Come on man..
I don't know that what you're saying is true or not (an apparently you don't either) so its hard to really discuss.
But if in fact it is true, that there is direct correlation between yards and points allowed, then why not just agree that points against makes most sense? As is with any metric, there are always going to be exceptions but on the whole 90% would be pretty solid
 

bwdenverram

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Do you have the actual answer for this or is it your opinion?
Because if I'm reading this correctly, you are saying that yardage and points are in direct correlation 90% of the time
If so, then ppg allowed definitely is the more accurate metric

Maybe this is a better way from data. This is just ESPN but they are all the same as far as rankings.

From what I can tell 7 of the top 10 in yards allowed per game were playoff teams. If you prefer points against I believe 8 of the top 10 were playoff teams. So yeah, they absolutely go hand in hand.

Conversely, if you look at the bottom half of the league (16-32) I believe only Pittsburgh and Washington made the playoffs. Everyone else giving up that much yardage is watching on the couch. That includes us at #23..

Believe it or not but the reality is if you live and die by thinking yards don't matter you aren't being realistic.

The data pretty much proves it.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/netYardsPerGame/position/defense
http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/position/defense
 

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dieterbrock

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Believe it or not but the reality is if you live and die by thinking yards don't matter you aren't being realistic.
I never said they don't matter, just that points per game is the most important statistic. And your stats support that so thanks for that.
And not to nit pick, but total points against isn't as accurate as defensive points allowed is.
 

bwdenverram

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I never said they don't matter, just that points per game is the most important statistic. And your stats support that so thanks for that.
And not to nit pick, but total points against isn't as accurate as defensive points allowed is.

I understand that but the stats I gave you are the same for every team. They all face the same things we do. But I think it's pretty clear that teams giving up a ton of yards aren't teams that make the payoffs on a consistent basis.
So we had a good year in one very important category defense which I'm not saying otherwise. But my point is we won't be a great defensive team based on just that category. I know it sounds funny but the stats don't lie.
I promise you, if we gave up around 320 yards per game this defense would be insanely good.
 

dieterbrock

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I understand that but the stats I gave you are the same for every team. They all face the same things we do. But I think it's pretty clear that teams giving up a ton of yards aren't teams that make the payoffs on a consistent basis.
So we had a good year in one very important category defense which I'm not saying otherwise. But my point is we won't be a great defensive team based on just that category. I know it sounds funny but the stats don't lie.
I promise you, if we gave up around 320 yards per game this defense would be insanely good.
And if the offense stays on the field longer, it limits the amount of plays the opposition gets. So in the case of the Rams, having the 8th lowest points against is a feather in their cap regardless to the amount of yards they gave up.
So the point of this thread was to debate which stat tells the "truest" story, and clearly points against would be the most important. Your stats pretty much back that up
 

12intheBox

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And if the offense stays on the field longer, it limits the amount of plays the opposition gets. So in the case of the Rams, having the 8th lowest points against is a feather in their cap regardless to the amount of yards they gave up.
So the point of this thread was to debate which stat tells the "truest" story, and clearly points against would be the most important. Your stats pretty much back that up

The Rams also make it a priority to limit turnovers at all costs and run a very conservative approach - the more you run the ball the more clock you chew. These would be factors that would help keep opponents scoring down.

And the fact that your offense can impact the stat is a problem (for both yards and points)

Someone else threw out yards per play. That seems like a pretty good baseline.
 

dieterbrock

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The Rams also make it a priority to limit turnovers at all costs and run a very conservative approach - the more you run the ball the more clock you chew. These would be factors that would help keep opponents scoring down.

And the fact that your offense can impact the stat is a problem (for both yards and points)

Someone else threw out yards per play. That seems like a pretty good baseline.
Yup, tons of variables, which is why the most consistent metric is ppg allowed
 

Ellard80

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Yup, tons of variables, which is why the most consistent metric is ppg allowed

But it's really not the only variable... and it doesn't live by itself.

If you actually look at the defensive stats.. there are many other factors.

Nearly all the teams ranking at the bottom in yards given up on defense.. also rank at the bottom in points given up.

Yards matter.. because giving up yards leads to points...

They don't live independent of each other.
 

Ellard80

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In the Rams lowest 5 games in ppg given up they gave up 291. yards per game
In the Rams highest 5 games in ppg given up they gave up 429. yards per game.
 

dieterbrock

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But it's really not the only variable... and it doesn't live by itself.

If you actually look at the defensive stats.. there are many other factors.

Nearly all the teams ranking at the bottom in yards given up on defense.. also rank at the bottom in points given up.

Yards matter.. because giving up yards leads to points...

They don't live independent of each other.
I don't know anyone that is saying yards don't matter, just that they are less important than points allowed
If one goes thru the box scores of games, the team that gives up the least points wins most of the games, where the team that gives up the least yards doesn't win with the same frequency
 

Ellard80

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Right and I'm not disagreeing... but a lot of people on here are acting like yards are meaningless or barely important.

That's not even close to true... its like 100% focus on the effect with 0% focus on the cause.
 

dieterbrock

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Right and I'm not disagreeing... but a lot of people on here are acting like yards are meaningless or barely important.

That's not even close to true... its like 100% focus on the effect with 0% focus on the cause.
Well, at times, yardage can be meaningless while points remain absolute
Take last year Super Bowl, a clash of 2 fantastic defenses.
Which one played better? The one that gave up 315 yards and 21 1st downs? Or the one that only gave up only 10 points
 

bwdenverram

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And if the offense stays on the field longer, it limits the amount of plays the opposition gets. So in the case of the Rams, having the 8th lowest points against is a feather in their cap regardless to the amount of yards they gave up.
So the point of this thread was to debate which stat tells the "truest" story, and clearly points against would be the most important. Your stats pretty much back that up

I guess you view at as you want and that's cool. I never at any point said amount of points against wasn't important. Obviously it is. But if you want to look at something like TOP we had the ball right at 47% of the time. So having your defense on the field 53% of the time is of course not ideal. So yeah, it does mean in terms of just points allowed we did pretty good. But I don't think we should fool ourselves either. The great teams and defenses don't let teams go up and down the field because even as good as we were it's playing with fire.

Do we need the offense to help out? Lord we all know that. But if our D can learn to get off the field on 3rd down more often and lower the yards per game they could be really outstanding.
Think of it this way, how many of those 3rd and 7's or whatever did we give up? a lot...you take away 2-3 of those a game and you're talking 20-30 yards? Now that 365 yards a game becomes 330 or so. That makes a huge difference over the course of the year. So you can take your stance and that's cool but I'll stand that yards against makes a huge impact and is directly related to points allowed. And we need to be able to be good at both. Not just one or the other or we won't be a playoff team. At least not with any consistency.
 
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jrry32

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Points are points...you can score with a 30 yard drive...or an 80 yard drive...you can score without the ball via turnover...The one way to control the amount of the opponents scores, is to possess the ball.

That's factored out of the equation. Points are points. That is correct. They are what win and lose games.

Stop drives...as soon as possible...Points are the end result of good defense..Not the cause of good defense. The means to the end, is controlling the opponent's yards...It's why many offensive players measures are based on YARDS...QB's, RB's, WR's...Yards based. Football has always been a game of field position...It is a simulation of war...probably was based on taking territory. Yards control the game...If you can limit yards, you can usually limit points.

Here's the problem with your logic. You say that if you can limit yards, you can "usually" limit points. However, if you can limit points, you always limit points. And your argument is against points as the better measure.

Every stat is the result of the defense, not the cause. However, in order to have a good defense, you must not allow many points. Nobody cares about how many yards you allow if you don't allow the other team to score.

Thus, the means to the end is controlling the opponent's points, not yards.

Many have said...gain all the yards you like, as long as I can stop you from scoring...I say, keep allowing 400 yards a game, and luck into only allowing 10 points...Eventually, the sieve of a defense will prove to be inadequate..Allowing a bunch of yards with no points is usually a luck thing...just like, if you don't allow a bunch of yards but give up points, just a bad luck thing. Pretty soon, luck runs out...And you have a team that can't stop anyone, or a team that finally looks like the 85 Bears....

Except your logic here fails because we're talking about a 16 game season.(in actuality, this debate started as discussing TWO 16 game seasons) So luck isn't the answer here. We've got a full season (actually, two) of the defense giving up yardage but not points. That's not luck.

If you don't allow a bunch of yards but give up points over a 16 game season, it's not bad luck. It's a failure in strategy. If you do allow a bunch of yards but give up very few points over a 16 game season, it's not good luck. It's a successful strategy.

And the Rams run a successful strategy. The strategy results in giving up yardage but not points. In the end, points are all that matter.

Points allowed is the end product, how do you get there? Skill by limiting yards & opportunities to score, or sheer luck hoping for the turnover or the opponents ineptitude? You choose....

Your argument fails by chalking it up to luck. How does a team continue to get lucky for two full seasons?

It's not opponents ineptitude. It's not luck. It's the Rams having a combination of a top red-zone defense and a defense that trades yardage and methodical drives for negative plays.

There's nothing lucky about it. The Rams have a defensive strategy. The strategy is to minimize big plays, stop offenses from scoring TDs in the red-zone, force negative plays (TFLs, TOs, sacks, etc.), and force offenses to utilize long drives where they have to be almost perfect.(any mistakes puts them in 2nd and long or 3rd and long which is where our defense is at its most advantageous)

Judging a defense by yards over points it allowed minimizes this effective strategy for some nonsensical concept of what a defensive strategy should be. It prioritizes a stat that doesn't affect the outcome of a game over a stat that IS the outcome of the game.

It's simply not logical.
 

dieterbrock

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So you can take your stance and that's cool but I'll stand that yards against makes a huge impact and is directly related to points allowed. And we need to be able to be good at both. Not just one or the other or we won't be a playoff team
The topic of the thread was which was more relevant in determining which defined a defense, points or yards. Never was it said that yardage didn't matter. One thing that has been proven is that yardage can be deceiving while points are absolute. Denver gave up 315 yards and 21 1st downs but only 10 points. Its the 10 points allowed that won the game
 

jrry32

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So answer this then: Two teams, one gives up 375 yards per game, the other gives up 310 yards per game.
Which one do you think is going to give up the fewer amount of points 9 times out of 10?

Pretty easy answer and why yards allowed is important. They generally go hand in hand.
Maybe we were #8 in scoring defense for one year but if you ask your defense to give up that many yards every game at some point history would probably say you won't be able to hold forever.

Moral of the story is get off the damn field sooner then later.

Answer this then: two teams, one gives up 375 yards per game and 18 points per game, the other gives ups 310 yards per game and 20 points per game

Which one do you think is going to give up the fewer amount of points 9 times out of 10?

Remember, the argument isn't that yards per game aren't predictive. The argument is that defensive points per game allowed is a better stat for measuring defensive performance.

P.S. the Rams ranked #9 in 2015 and #5 in 2014 in DPPG Allowed while ranking nowhere near the top 10 yards per game allowed. When are we going to reach the point of them not holding? ;)
 

dieterbrock

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FWIW in the last 8 Superbowls the team with more yardage in the game lost 6 times