- Joined
- Jun 28, 2010
- Messages
- 49,232
- Name
- Burger man
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12127113/buffalo-bills-gave-too-much-sammy-watkins-nfl
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty ImagesThe Buffalo Bills traded up from No. 9 to No. 4 in 2014 to draft talented wide receiver Sammy Watkins.
When news came from colleague Adam Schefter that former Buffalo Bills head coach Doug Marrone did not approve of the team's decision to trade up in the 2014 NFL draft to select Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins, giving away their 2015 first-round pick in the process, it provided a natural opportunity to assess the merits of the trade.
In many cases -- regardless of whether the transaction is a trade, free-agent signing or draft selection -- there's a tendency to forge a knee-jerk reaction that can prove to be inaccurate in the long term. But while Watkins' career is far from over, based on a multitude of factors involved, it's hard to disagree with the sentiment suggested by Marrone: The decision to trade up for him was not the right move.
Let's look at the price Buffalo will have to pay for its decision to move up to draft Watkins.
The opportunity cost
The Bills originally held the ninth pick in the 2014 draft, moving that pick plus first- and fourth-round picks in 2015 to Cleveland to select Watkins, whom team president Russ Brandon categorized as a "generational talent." As it turns out, that 2015 first-round pick will be the 19th pick in the draft and is now owned by the Browns (the exact slot of the fourth-round pick will be determined based on how many third-round compensatory picks are awarded this offseason).
While trading picks is an imperfect exercise, longtime NFL coach Jimmy Johnson helped bring to light a draft pick value chart that assigns a point value to each pick in descending order. The fourth pick in a draft carries 1,800 points of value, while the ninth pick carries 1,350. Using that value chart as a scale, the Bills acquired a point value of 1,800 -- Watkins at pick No. 4 in 2014 -- in exchange for what turned out to be approximately 2,290 points -- the No. 9 pick in 2014 (1,350), the No. 19 pick in 2015 (875) and a 2015 fourth-round selection (approximately 65 points), a nearly 500-point discrepancy.
Again, these draft-day trades involve an element of projection, but even if the Bills had won the Super Bowl this season, the draft trade would have incurred a loss of close to 200 points in draft pick value.
Watkins versus the rest of the rookie receivers
Based on the fact that the Browns did not draft a receiver at any point in 2014, it seems unlikely they would have taken Watkins had they stayed pat at No. 4. But it still seems like a safe bet that Watkins would have been gone by pick nine, and perhaps Mike Evans -- the No. 7 pick in the draft -- would have been taken, too. Even if that were the case, the Bills still could have selected from some of the other highly touted wide receivers, including, of course, Odell Beckham Jr. The likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, whom the Giants selected at No. 12, finished with more catches, yards and touchdowns than Watkins in four fewer games.
Part of that, of course, is tied to the fact that Watkins played for an offense with a tenuous quarterback situation, at best. So I asked an NFL personnel man to size up Watkins relative to the other rookie wide receivers with a year of film to evaluate them from. "He was good, he just needs a QB and needs to stay healthy," he said. "I still think he's the most explosive big-play receiver out of the group. Beckham separated himself with his ball skills and overall route-running ability. I still would never draft a WR that early unless he has rare physical traits ([Julio] Jones, [A.J.] Green, [Calvin] Johnson)."
Specific to 2014, another reason not to draft a wide receiver as early as No. 4 is the overall depth of the class. Below is a snapshot of 10 wide receivers -- Watkins included -- who made an impact in 2014.
PlayerTeamWhen draftedReceiving yards
Odell Beckham Jr.New York Giants12th1,305
Mike EvansTampa Bay Buccaneers7th1,051
Kelvin BenjaminCarolina Panthers28th1,008
Sammy WatkinsBuffalo Bills4th982
Jordan MatthewsPhiladelphia Eagles42nd872
Jarvis LandryMiami Dolphins63rd758
John BrownArizona Cardinals91st696
Allen HurnsJacksonville JaguarsUndrafted677
Taylor GabrielCleveland BrownsUndrafted621
Brandin CooksNew Orleans Saints20th550 (in 10 GP)
To reiterate: The production of receivers is tied to, at least in part, quarterback play and the draft is also a projection -- we don't know how these players will pan out before they hit the field. And while Watkins could turn out to the best of the bunch in this class of receivers, it was a position robust with talent that other teams acquired from the first round and beyond.
The diminished resources
One way to interpret the Bills' decision to move up for Watkins was that they viewed the roster as one piece -- a dynamic wide receiver -- away from playoff and/or division-winning contention. As was evidenced in 2014, Buffalo's biggest roster hole is at quarterback, and the void is much larger than the receiver gap it had before last year's draft. The team drafted EJ Manuel in the first round in 2013, but he was benched after just four games this season in favor of Kyle Orton, lured out of retirement weeks before being named the starter. Orton retired following the 2014 season, and while Manuel doesn't turn 25 until March, it's hard to envision that the team truly views him as a viable starting option.
Which brings us to the other downside of the trade: the lost picks, most specifically this year's first-rounder. While it seems unlikely that Buffalo would've been able to land one of the two most sought after draft-eligible quarterback prospects -- Florida State's Jameis Winston and Oregon's Marcus Mariota -- at No. 19, it still is stripped of a critical resource in talent acquisition. The free-agency options are limited this offseason, and without a first-round pick, the Bills are going to have to get creative to find a starting quarterback for 2015.
When news came from colleague Adam Schefter that former Buffalo Bills head coach Doug Marrone did not approve of the team's decision to trade up in the 2014 NFL draft to select Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins, giving away their 2015 first-round pick in the process, it provided a natural opportunity to assess the merits of the trade.
In many cases -- regardless of whether the transaction is a trade, free-agent signing or draft selection -- there's a tendency to forge a knee-jerk reaction that can prove to be inaccurate in the long term. But while Watkins' career is far from over, based on a multitude of factors involved, it's hard to disagree with the sentiment suggested by Marrone: The decision to trade up for him was not the right move.
Let's look at the price Buffalo will have to pay for its decision to move up to draft Watkins.
The opportunity cost
The Bills originally held the ninth pick in the 2014 draft, moving that pick plus first- and fourth-round picks in 2015 to Cleveland to select Watkins, whom team president Russ Brandon categorized as a "generational talent." As it turns out, that 2015 first-round pick will be the 19th pick in the draft and is now owned by the Browns (the exact slot of the fourth-round pick will be determined based on how many third-round compensatory picks are awarded this offseason).
While trading picks is an imperfect exercise, longtime NFL coach Jimmy Johnson helped bring to light a draft pick value chart that assigns a point value to each pick in descending order. The fourth pick in a draft carries 1,800 points of value, while the ninth pick carries 1,350. Using that value chart as a scale, the Bills acquired a point value of 1,800 -- Watkins at pick No. 4 in 2014 -- in exchange for what turned out to be approximately 2,290 points -- the No. 9 pick in 2014 (1,350), the No. 19 pick in 2015 (875) and a 2015 fourth-round selection (approximately 65 points), a nearly 500-point discrepancy.
Again, these draft-day trades involve an element of projection, but even if the Bills had won the Super Bowl this season, the draft trade would have incurred a loss of close to 200 points in draft pick value.
Watkins versus the rest of the rookie receivers
Based on the fact that the Browns did not draft a receiver at any point in 2014, it seems unlikely they would have taken Watkins had they stayed pat at No. 4. But it still seems like a safe bet that Watkins would have been gone by pick nine, and perhaps Mike Evans -- the No. 7 pick in the draft -- would have been taken, too. Even if that were the case, the Bills still could have selected from some of the other highly touted wide receivers, including, of course, Odell Beckham Jr. The likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, whom the Giants selected at No. 12, finished with more catches, yards and touchdowns than Watkins in four fewer games.
Part of that, of course, is tied to the fact that Watkins played for an offense with a tenuous quarterback situation, at best. So I asked an NFL personnel man to size up Watkins relative to the other rookie wide receivers with a year of film to evaluate them from. "He was good, he just needs a QB and needs to stay healthy," he said. "I still think he's the most explosive big-play receiver out of the group. Beckham separated himself with his ball skills and overall route-running ability. I still would never draft a WR that early unless he has rare physical traits ([Julio] Jones, [A.J.] Green, [Calvin] Johnson)."
Specific to 2014, another reason not to draft a wide receiver as early as No. 4 is the overall depth of the class. Below is a snapshot of 10 wide receivers -- Watkins included -- who made an impact in 2014.
PlayerTeamWhen draftedReceiving yards
Odell Beckham Jr.New York Giants12th1,305
Mike EvansTampa Bay Buccaneers7th1,051
Kelvin BenjaminCarolina Panthers28th1,008
Sammy WatkinsBuffalo Bills4th982
Jordan MatthewsPhiladelphia Eagles42nd872
Jarvis LandryMiami Dolphins63rd758
John BrownArizona Cardinals91st696
Allen HurnsJacksonville JaguarsUndrafted677
Taylor GabrielCleveland BrownsUndrafted621
Brandin CooksNew Orleans Saints20th550 (in 10 GP)
To reiterate: The production of receivers is tied to, at least in part, quarterback play and the draft is also a projection -- we don't know how these players will pan out before they hit the field. And while Watkins could turn out to the best of the bunch in this class of receivers, it was a position robust with talent that other teams acquired from the first round and beyond.
The diminished resources
One way to interpret the Bills' decision to move up for Watkins was that they viewed the roster as one piece -- a dynamic wide receiver -- away from playoff and/or division-winning contention. As was evidenced in 2014, Buffalo's biggest roster hole is at quarterback, and the void is much larger than the receiver gap it had before last year's draft. The team drafted EJ Manuel in the first round in 2013, but he was benched after just four games this season in favor of Kyle Orton, lured out of retirement weeks before being named the starter. Orton retired following the 2014 season, and while Manuel doesn't turn 25 until March, it's hard to envision that the team truly views him as a viable starting option.
Which brings us to the other downside of the trade: the lost picks, most specifically this year's first-rounder. While it seems unlikely that Buffalo would've been able to land one of the two most sought after draft-eligible quarterback prospects -- Florida State's Jameis Winston and Oregon's Marcus Mariota -- at No. 19, it still is stripped of a critical resource in talent acquisition. The free-agency options are limited this offseason, and without a first-round pick, the Bills are going to have to get creative to find a starting quarterback for 2015.
