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http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...re-how-use-college-spread-qbs-clayton-mailbag
The increasing number of spread quarterbacks coming into the NFL has coaches and general managers up in arms. Basically, many teams haven't figured out how spread quarterbacks can work in a league of more complex offenses.
For the sake of the future of the sport, NFL teams better get a handle on these spread quarterbacks. According to an ESPN.com survey, 48.9 percent of quarterbacks in high school since 2010 have worked out of the spread. The system works great for high schools and colleges, but it's a problem in the NFL, for many reasons.
A college spread quarterback doesn't run a huddle. He operates completely out of the shotgun or pistol instead of taking snaps from center. The spread quarterbacks have to learn three-, five- and seven-step drops the minute their college careers are over. The pure spread quarterbacks often have predetermined reads instead of going through and processing the play and the positioning of the pass-catchers.
Many observers say a typical NFL contest and a college matchup of two spread quarterbacks are two different games. But it's up to the NFL to figure it out, or the sport is going to be in a tough spot five years from now. The average age of the top 11 quarterbacks, as ranked by QBR, is 33.6, and eight are 34 or older. In five years, most of the current elite quarterbacks will be retired.
I went through the list of the 140 drafted quarterbacks from 2004 to 2014 and determined there hasn't been a spread quarterback among them who currently would be labeled among the top 12 in the league. A few are close. Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith are former spread quarterbacks who aren't yet elite but could be knocking on the door.
Scouting is an inexact science. There is usually a 50 percent failure rate of quarterbacks coming out of more conventional passing offenses in college. Just look at more conventional quarterbacks taken in the first three rounds from 2008 to 2014. Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco (who did a little spread throwing at Delaware but had enough conventional plays), Matthew Stafford and Nick Foles could be considered success stories. Mark Sanchez had initial success with the New York Jets but was released after signing a big contract.
Conventional failures include Chad Henne, Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen, Christian Ponder and possibly EJ Manuel and Mike Glennon.
Blaine Gabbert were top-10 picks in 2011. Locker is retired. Gabbert failed in Jacksonville. Robert Griffin III, the No. 2 overall pick in 2012, will be a potential failure if things don't work out quickly this year in Washington. Brandon Weeden failed in Cleveland after being taken in the first round in 2012.
Which brings us to the debates surrounding Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota in this year's draft. Winston played in a more NFL-ready system. He should have an easier transition. Mariota was a pure spread quarterback at Oregon. What gives Mariota hope of being a success story in the NFL is Oregon's offense gave him some chances to go through a progression of routes. In a majority of spread offenses, the quarterback just gets it and throws it without processing the routes.
Andy Dalton worked mostly out of the shotgun in a form of spread at TCU, and he's been to two Pro Bowls and has had three trips to the playoffs. TCU's version of the spread also allowed him to process routes and formations.
Here are a few points NFL teams need to take into account when considering a college spread quarterback:
• Don't reach for a spread quarterback, and be careful about starting him as a rookie. Gabbert was 4-10 in his rookie year. The Jaguars gave up on him after 13 more starts over the next two seasons. Weeden was 5-10 as a rookie and was finished in Cleveland after five more starts. Even though Josh McDaniels made one trip to the playoffs with Tim Tebow as his quarterback in Denver, the decision to take Tebow in the first round was too much of a reach.
• Jim Harbaugh set the model for spread quarterbacks with his handling of Kaepernick. Kaepernick was a pure spread quarterback who wasn't asked to process routes. Harbaugh didn't start him until his second season, when he thought Kaepernick was ready. Kaepernick had the 49ers one play away from winning a Super Bowl. With only 10 OTAs, a minicamp and training camp, there isn't a lot of time to convert a spread quarterback before his first season.
• Spread quarterbacks are vertically challenged. The spread offense uses so many bubble screens and horizontal throws it doesn't help the transition into the NFL's vertical passing game.
Don't blame players such as Mariota or Bryce Petty for the problem. The NFL needs to handle spread quarterbacks better to get more spread successes than failures.
The increasing number of spread quarterbacks coming into the NFL has coaches and general managers up in arms. Basically, many teams haven't figured out how spread quarterbacks can work in a league of more complex offenses.
For the sake of the future of the sport, NFL teams better get a handle on these spread quarterbacks. According to an ESPN.com survey, 48.9 percent of quarterbacks in high school since 2010 have worked out of the spread. The system works great for high schools and colleges, but it's a problem in the NFL, for many reasons.
A college spread quarterback doesn't run a huddle. He operates completely out of the shotgun or pistol instead of taking snaps from center. The spread quarterbacks have to learn three-, five- and seven-step drops the minute their college careers are over. The pure spread quarterbacks often have predetermined reads instead of going through and processing the play and the positioning of the pass-catchers.
Many observers say a typical NFL contest and a college matchup of two spread quarterbacks are two different games. But it's up to the NFL to figure it out, or the sport is going to be in a tough spot five years from now. The average age of the top 11 quarterbacks, as ranked by QBR, is 33.6, and eight are 34 or older. In five years, most of the current elite quarterbacks will be retired.
I went through the list of the 140 drafted quarterbacks from 2004 to 2014 and determined there hasn't been a spread quarterback among them who currently would be labeled among the top 12 in the league. A few are close. Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith are former spread quarterbacks who aren't yet elite but could be knocking on the door.
Scouting is an inexact science. There is usually a 50 percent failure rate of quarterbacks coming out of more conventional passing offenses in college. Just look at more conventional quarterbacks taken in the first three rounds from 2008 to 2014. Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco (who did a little spread throwing at Delaware but had enough conventional plays), Matthew Stafford and Nick Foles could be considered success stories. Mark Sanchez had initial success with the New York Jets but was released after signing a big contract.
Conventional failures include Chad Henne, Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen, Christian Ponder and possibly EJ Manuel and Mike Glennon.
Blaine Gabbert were top-10 picks in 2011. Locker is retired. Gabbert failed in Jacksonville. Robert Griffin III, the No. 2 overall pick in 2012, will be a potential failure if things don't work out quickly this year in Washington. Brandon Weeden failed in Cleveland after being taken in the first round in 2012.
Which brings us to the debates surrounding Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota in this year's draft. Winston played in a more NFL-ready system. He should have an easier transition. Mariota was a pure spread quarterback at Oregon. What gives Mariota hope of being a success story in the NFL is Oregon's offense gave him some chances to go through a progression of routes. In a majority of spread offenses, the quarterback just gets it and throws it without processing the routes.
Andy Dalton worked mostly out of the shotgun in a form of spread at TCU, and he's been to two Pro Bowls and has had three trips to the playoffs. TCU's version of the spread also allowed him to process routes and formations.
Here are a few points NFL teams need to take into account when considering a college spread quarterback:
• Don't reach for a spread quarterback, and be careful about starting him as a rookie. Gabbert was 4-10 in his rookie year. The Jaguars gave up on him after 13 more starts over the next two seasons. Weeden was 5-10 as a rookie and was finished in Cleveland after five more starts. Even though Josh McDaniels made one trip to the playoffs with Tim Tebow as his quarterback in Denver, the decision to take Tebow in the first round was too much of a reach.
• Jim Harbaugh set the model for spread quarterbacks with his handling of Kaepernick. Kaepernick was a pure spread quarterback who wasn't asked to process routes. Harbaugh didn't start him until his second season, when he thought Kaepernick was ready. Kaepernick had the 49ers one play away from winning a Super Bowl. With only 10 OTAs, a minicamp and training camp, there isn't a lot of time to convert a spread quarterback before his first season.
• Spread quarterbacks are vertically challenged. The spread offense uses so many bubble screens and horizontal throws it doesn't help the transition into the NFL's vertical passing game.
Don't blame players such as Mariota or Bryce Petty for the problem. The NFL needs to handle spread quarterbacks better to get more spread successes than failures.
