The Fermi Paradox and Alien Spaceships on Earth.

[Loyal]

"The Fermi paradox is a conflict between the argument that scale and probability seem to favor intelligent life being common in the universe, and the total lack of evidence of intelligent life having ever arisen anywhere other than on the Earth. "

I like to think of myself as a wanna be UFO/Alien believer, but I can't quite get there. I am intrigued by recent testimony from Air Fore Pilots about objects doing manuevers that are impossible according to technology that we possess now. I also am intrigued by Bob Lazar and his supposed job at Area 51 on examining propulsion systems of a particular UFO in the 80's (he said there were several of different shaped UFO's in the hangers nearby "his" UFO, but never got close to them). Being a military guy who worked at a research and development institution called NOSC on Point Loma (San Diego) during approximately the same timeframe, I recognize similarities in security procedures that ring true to me. But, these similarities might be masking a total BS story.

There are different arguments than the one I'm making, so please give me evidence that refutes my thoughts. Please do not offer personal anecdotes about UFO's or second or third hand ones.

The earth is approximately 4.5 billions years old and life started evolving about 3.5 billion years ago. As far as we know, modern humans have existed for about 44,000 years. Ours is a young system, as the oldest systems are over 13 billion years old. Just examining our geological history, there have been several extinction events. The latest one was the asteroid that struck the Yucatan area 66 million years ago, which was basically a biological reset. This allowed smaller mammals to become dominant and eliminated the Dinos (by and large).

Mankind is 44,000 years old, and the massive upgrade in knowledge has happened in the last 120 years or so? Sure there were discoveries before this of great worth, but mankind has ramped up the most in this period over any time in the last 44,000 years as far as we know.

That is the base for me.
1. Other species may have arisen on Earth and became just as advanced as we are now, but one of the several extinction events utterly destroyed any evidence of them if so. The same is most likely true for any planet in any galaxy in existence.
2. Some planets, which includes Earth, may have had intelligent life arise that were not quite advanced before getting destroyed, or destroying themselves.
3. What if an Alien civilization arose and spread throughout the Universe, and then died out 7 billion years ago (2.5 billion years before the Earth was formed). Remember, we may not exist 100 years from now with all of the nukes on Earth. A 44,000 year window in 13 + billion years, means that the rarity of an Alien race being intelligent enough to overcome the physics of space travel AND to contact us at the right geological time has got to be astronomically against that possibility.

Reason with me.

 

[Akrasian]

"The Fermi paradox is a conflict between the argument that scale and probability seem to favor intelligent life being common in the universe, and the total lack of evidence of intelligent life having ever arisen anywhere other than on the Earth. "

I like to think of myself as a wanna be UFO/Alien believer, but I can't quite get there. I am intrigued by recent testimony from Air Fore Pilots about objects doing manuevers that are impossible according to technology that we possess now. I also am intrigued by Bob Lazar and his supposed job at Area 51 on examining propulsion systems of a particular UFO in the 80's (he said there were several of different shaped UFO's in the hangers nearby "his" UFO, but never got close to them). Being a military guy who worked at a research and development institution called NOSC on Point Loma (San Diego) during approximately the same timeframe, I recognize similarities in security procedures that ring true to me. But, these similarities might be masking a total BS story.

There are different arguments than the one I'm making, so please give me evidence that refutes my thoughts. Please do not offer personal anecdotes about UFO's or second or third hand ones.

The earth is approximately 4.5 billions years old and life started evolving about 3.5 billion years ago. As far as we know, modern humans have existed for about 44,000 years. Ours is a young system, as the oldest systems are over 13 billion years old. Just examining our geological history, there have been several extinction events. The latest one was the asteroid that struck the Yucatan area 66 million years ago, which was basically a biological reset. This allowed smaller mammals to become dominant and eliminated the Dinos (by and large).

Mankind is 44,000 years old, and the massive upgrade in knowledge has happened in the last 120 years or so? Sure there were discoveries before this of great worth, but mankind has ramped up the most in this period over any time in the last 44,000 years as far as we know.

That is the base for me.
1. Other species may have arisen on Earth and became just as advanced as we are now, but one of the several extinction events utterly destroyed any evidence of them if so. The same is most likely true for any planet in any galaxy in existence.
2. Some planets, which includes Earth, may have had intelligent life arise that were not quite advanced before getting destroyed, or destroying themselves.
3. What if an Alien civilization arose and spread throughout the Universe, and then died out 7 billion years ago (2.5 billion years before the Earth was formed). Remember, we may not exist 100 years from now with all of the nukes on Earth. A 44,000 year window in 13 + billion years, means that the rarity of an Alien race being intelligent enough to overcome the physics of space travel AND to contact us at the right geological time has got to be astronomically against that possibility.

Reason with me.

Oh, I agree. I do think it is exceptionally likely that life has developed all over the universe in various forms.

However, it's not clear that it is possible or at least practical to travel interstellar distances. What would be the energy requirements? What payloads could you practically carry? If - for instance - carrying a tiny payload 10 light years would cost enough energy to power your civilization for centuries, how do you justify a trip that is very likely to be unsuccessful? Scifi sort of handwaves away power requirements with sources that are far more efficient than fusion, and with mysterious uses for this mysterious power. But in the real world it's not clear that on a macroscopic level that such sources are possible

The notion that aliens would be routinely contacting us from interstellar distances is dubious. The idea that we have had 50+ years to study their technology - and have not yet used it in war is even more dubious. And there has been nothing to make me think that we have used radical new technologies from Area 51 or any other alien technologies.

 

[Dodgersrf]

How lond does a civilization have to exist, before having the ability and technology to travel outside it's own galaxy?

You raise some fun and interesting questions regarding 2 civilizations in different galaxies existing at the same time.

 

[coconut]

Human life began in our solar system but not on earth. Didn't anyone read Inherit The Stars?

• 25 million years ago: Intelligence arises in the Solar System on the planet of Minerva, situated between Mars and Jupiter, in the form of the "Giants".
• 
  
• Between 25 million and 4 million years ago: Carbon dioxide levels in the Minervan atmosphere begin to rise. As the Giants have a low tolerance for carbon dioxide, they send a scientific team to the star Iscaris to perform experiments to aid in their understanding of the situation. However, the experimentation destabilises the star, causing a nova. The team attempts to flee on their starship Shapieron which is unable to decelerate (due to a problem with the ship's main drives), forcing them to orbit the Solar System at relativistic velocities, experiencing one year for every million that pass. After the events at Iscaris, the Minervans bring in animals and hominids from Earth in the hope of isolating the gene responsible for carbon dioxide tolerance. However, they fear the effects of using this gene in themselves and are forced to flee to the distant planet of Thurien, in orbit around the "Giants' Star". They leave behind relays so that they can continue to observe Minerva and their evacuation is mostly successful, though one of their ships crashes on Ganymede.
• 
  
• Approximately 100,000 years ago: hominids left behind on Minerva after genetic experimentation evolve into modern humans.
• 
  
• Between 100,000 and 50,000 years ago: An ice age begins on Minerva, threatening to destroy the new human civilization. Humanity begins a space program in an attempt to escape the planet. This leads to conflict and an arms race between the inhabitants of Minerva's two continents, democratic Cerios and autocratic Lambia, over control of the program.
• 
  
• 50,020-50,000 years ago: The Jevlenese Imares Broghuilio and his generals appear via a time loop from the future in a fleet of five starships. Cerian president Harzin and Lambian king Perasmon declare the end of the arms race and the demilitarization of the two continents in the interests of the greater good. Prince Freskel-Gar Engred is secretly aided by the Jevlenese in his plan to assassinate Perasmon and Harzin, and ascends the throne of Lambia. Under his rule, military development is restarted with contributions from Jevlenese technology. Broghuilio removes Freskel-Gar and installs himself as dictator, renaming himself Zargon. In turn, he too is replaced by Xerasky.
• 
  
• 50,000 years ago: After years of hostilities, total nuclear warfare finally breaks out between Cerios and Lambia on Minerva and at the Cerian base on Minerva's moon. The Thuriens intervene but are too late: Minerva is shattered, forming Pluto and the Asteroid belt while its moon is captured by Earth, becoming the planet's familiar satellite. The Cerian survivors ask to be transported down onto Earth but the gravitational stresses of the lunar arrival throws their civilization back to the stone age and, to survive, they are forced to wipe out the native Neanderthals before attempting to rebuild.

 

[1maGoh]

"The Fermi paradox is a conflict between the argument that scale and probability seem to favor intelligent life being common in the universe, and the total lack of evidence of intelligent life having ever arisen anywhere other than on the Earth. "

I like to think of myself as a wanna be UFO/Alien believer, but I can't quite get there. I am intrigued by recent testimony from Air Fore Pilots about objects doing manuevers that are impossible according to technology that we possess now. I also am intrigued by Bob Lazar and his supposed job at Area 51 on examining propulsion systems of a particular UFO in the 80's (he said there were several of different shaped UFO's in the hangers nearby "his" UFO, but never got close to them). Being a military guy who worked at a research and development institution called NOSC on Point Loma (San Diego) during approximately the same timeframe, I recognize similarities in security procedures that ring true to me. But, these similarities might be masking a total BS story.

There are different arguments than the one I'm making, so please give me evidence that refutes my thoughts. Please do not offer personal anecdotes about UFO's or second or third hand ones.

The earth is approximately 4.5 billions years old and life started evolving about 3.5 billion years ago. As far as we know, modern humans have existed for about 44,000 years. Ours is a young system, as the oldest systems are over 13 billion years old. Just examining our geological history, there have been several extinction events. The latest one was the asteroid that struck the Yucatan area 66 million years ago, which was basically a biological reset. This allowed smaller mammals to become dominant and eliminated the Dinos (by and large).

Mankind is 44,000 years old, and the massive upgrade in knowledge has happened in the last 120 years or so? Sure there were discoveries before this of great worth, but mankind has ramped up the most in this period over any time in the last 44,000 years as far as we know.

That is the base for me.
1. Other species may have arisen on Earth and became just as advanced as we are now, but one of the several extinction events utterly destroyed any evidence of them if so. The same is most likely true for any planet in any galaxy in existence.
2. Some planets, which includes Earth, may have had intelligent life arise that were not quite advanced before getting destroyed, or destroying themselves.
3. What if an Alien civilization arose and spread throughout the Universe, and then died out 7 billion years ago (2.5 billion years before the Earth was formed). Remember, we may not exist 100 years from now with all of the nukes on Earth. A 44,000 year window in 13 + billion years, means that the rarity of an Alien race being intelligent enough to overcome the physics of space travel AND to contact us at the right geological time has got to be astronomically against that possibility.

Reason with me.

I think saying there's a lack of evidence that intelligent life is anywhere other than Earth is overdoing it. We couldn't possibly get any evidence, so of course we lack evidence. Lacking evidence isn't indicative of anything because there isn't another option.

Think about it this way. Let's say we were extraterrestrials on a habitable planet far away from here at roughly the same technological development. Could we detect Earth and confirm intelligent life? Probably not. Does the inability to detect Earth mean that Earth and its inhabitants don't exist? No.

There is no paradox.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

The speck of time that mankind has been around let alone how long mankind has had the technology to send communications into space is so minuscule compared to the age of the universe.

We are a blink of the eye compared to the lifetime of the universe.
For there to be an intelligent life-force outside of Earth at that very same blink of the eye to not only be looking for intelligent life themselves but have their gear pointed in our direction to receive our blimps is statistically impossible
We are alone
Not to say life doesn’t exist outside of Earth - it certainly does. But we will never ever experience at any moment in the history of man past or present communicate with intelligent life outside of Earth

UFO’s are Earthly phenomena. Pure and simple.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

One explanation for UFO movement that we are incapable of is the control of magnetic fields. There would be no need for propulsion type fuels if they could manipulate magnetism. If there are advanced races from other galaxies, then I'd bet they have and advanced system of energy storage. In the last 20 years we have gone from alkaline batteries, to NiCad, to lithium. Today's batteries are smaller, stronger and last longer. What will our batteries be like in 50 more years?

Another explanation is vacuum control. By creating a vacuum around a ship and to areas outside of its perimeter, could lead to rapid change of direction.

Then there is the Radiation theory. Stars give off a nearly infinite supply of radiation, so that could be the power source.


One thing that strikes me as evidence of intelligent life if an African tribe that migrated from Egypt. Ghostwriter has a sacred symbol. It's an exact replica of Orion's belt. But there is a star on it that is not visible with the naked eye. It's not even visible to the human eye.

 

[RamsAndEwe]

I'll echo some of Akrasian and Loyal Ram's thoughts and a few of my own.
1. I definitely believe the universe has spawned intelligent life. However, the expense of traveling untold lightyears is exorbitant and totally unpractical.
2. I think first contact would more likely be mechanical. Not biological. Perhaps self replicating, Von Neumann machine's. Miniature, exploratory artificial intelligence that draws energy directly from star light. They wouldn't be tied to organic fuel or materials.

3. I believe all life, everywhere in the Universe is subject to Darwinian evolution. Selfish genes proliferate. A selfish gene always overtakes a population. I don't believe aliens would contact us for altruistic reasons.

4. Perhaps intelligent life destroys itself by going decadent. As a civilization evolves, it is able to stave off Natural Selection. Thus, deleterious mutant genes survive. Since the industrial evolution, millions of mutant genes and their carrier humans have survived. Humans who would have died before replication, during earlier, higher Natural Selection intensive eras. Over 85% of human genes have ties to the brain. Most physical, deleterious mutant genes are comorbid with intelligence genes. Thus a burgeoning plethora of folks with self-destructive mutant tendencies. At least that's what I see. Recent human trends? Intelligent people do not replicate as fast as folks with lower intelligence. Why wouldn't similar evolutionary trajectories occur in other advanced civilizations?

These two scientists discuss Intelligence trends. It's their particular field of expertise. You may have to rewind video.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHEltPuFelQ

 

[ozarkram]

The only question I have really ever had is. If we are being visited or observed by this super advanced alien culture. Why do they keep crashing into our planet? I mean screw "Take me to your leader." Who is gonna pay for my fence?

 

[Selassie I]

The ancient Sumerian cuneiform texts tell the story. Check that out.

As much as I want to believe Lazar... he's lying. He seems believable, but if you really dig into the whole story he and the news guy came up with you can see that they made it up. Those 2 and a few others knew each other way before Bob filled in for another guy for the interview were they didn't show Bob's face. Those guys used to all get together out in the Nevada desert for fireworks displays.

Human civilizations are much much older than what our history books tell us. Most of the evidence has been erased because of impact events... the last one was about 12800 years ago here in the Northern American continent. Basically it's what ended the last ice age. Scientists are at least acknowledging the impact event now.

 

[coconut]

I'll echo some of Akrasian and Loyal Ram's thoughts and a few of my own.
1. I definitely believe the universe has spawned intelligent life. However, the expense of traveling untold lightyears is exorbitant and totally unpractical.

The exorbitance and impracticality of traveling untold lightyears is strictly from a human perspective of technology, biology and known physical laws. You can't know what isn't known. Thankfully it is known. Got Worm Hole?

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

One explanation for UFO movement that we are incapable of is the control of magnetic fields. There would be no need for propulsion type fuels if they could manipulate magnetism. If there are advanced races from other galaxies, then I'd bet they have and advanced system of energy storage. In the last 20 years we have gone from alkaline batteries, to NiCad, to lithium. Today's batteries are smaller, stronger and last longer. What will our batteries be like in 50 more years?

Another explanation is vacuum control. By creating a vacuum around a ship and to areas outside of its perimeter, could lead to rapid change of direction.

Then there is the Radiation theory. Stars give off a nearly infinite supply of radiation, so that could be the power source.


One thing that strikes me as evidence of intelligent life if an African tribe that migrated from Egypt. Ghostwriter has a sacred symbol. It's an exact replica of Orion's belt. But there is a star on it that is not visible with the naked eye. It's not even visible with a telescope

I was falling asleep there at the end. That last paragraph is supposed to read like this.:

One thing that strikes me as evidence of intelligent life on other planets is an African tribe that migrated from Egypt. This tribe has a sacred talisman. It looks like a circle with lines coming off of it. Certain points marrk stars. It's an exact replica of Orions belt, and the tribe claims that is our home constellation. The interesting part is that there are stars marked on it that cannot be seen with the naked eye. They can only be seen with a very powerful telescope. The Orion's belt constellation is also repeated in the formation of the great pyramids in Egypt and in pyramids in Mexico.

There are many sites around the world that were constructed with advanced techniques that could not have been built by ancient cultures with primitive tools. If you doubt it just watch Ancient Aliens. Some of the theories on that show may be stretches, but when they show the stone structures with huge cut stones that are more precisely fitted together, than we could do today with similar tools, then I tend to believe no early human civilizations could have built these things without Alien help.

Then you have the precision of the Nazca lines, and also precise astrological and geographic alignments of many of these huge structures that are so precise that it would be impossible to orient them without GPS technology. The ancient cultures that built these structures did not have that type of technical capability back then.

 

[1maGoh]

One explanation for UFO movement that we are incapable of is the control of magnetic fields. There would be no need for propulsion type fuels if they could manipulate magnetism. If there are advanced races from other galaxies, then I'd bet they have and advanced system of energy storage. In the last 20 years we have gone from alkaline batteries, to NiCad, to lithium. Today's batteries are smaller, stronger and last longer. What will our batteries be like in 50 more years?

Another explanation is vacuum control. By creating a vacuum around a ship and to areas outside of its perimeter, could lead to rapid change of direction.

Then there is the Radiation theory. Stars give off a nearly infinite supply of radiation, so that could be the power source.


One thing that strikes me as evidence of intelligent life if an African tribe that migrated from Egypt. Ghostwriter has a sacred symbol. It's an exact replica of Orion's belt. But there is a star on it that is not visible with the naked eye. It's not even visible to the human eye.

Speaking of battery technology, I just made another thread about new battery technology that is being produced. Basically it's super lightweight with 9x more energy than lithium-ion, pound for pound.

 

[fearsomefour]

How lond does a civilization have to exist, before having the ability and technology to travel outside it's own galaxy?

You raise some fun and interesting questions regarding 2 civilizations in different galaxies existing at the same time.

I think that could vary greatly.
We tend to think of things only in the way they developed here.
Walking.....horse.....train.....car.....rocket.....etc.
That would not be the way things would develop somewhere else.
Also, traveling vast distances, as you’ve said, there is a point of no benefit with more power and bigger engines, fuel requirements etc.
Bob Lazar has addressed with anti gravity tech. This makes sense in terms of moving tremendously quickly with very little power of fuel source requirement. The Nazis (and I suspect is as well.....either during the war or after the war when the Nazi scientists were employed by the US) were working on anti gravity tech. It is not a new idea.

Beyond that we get into more sideways ideas of inter dimensional coexistence and travel etc.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Let me ask you guys this
Where is the intelligent life outside of Earth?

Anyone? Anyone?

If it hasn’t happened yet it’s not happening. The ironic thing is that any so-called clues to intelligent life people have are found on Earth - doesn’t that make it from this word not outer space?

The stars you see in the night sky is light that is hitting your eyes after millions and millions of light years traveling through space - what you think you see is no longer there. Time and distance makes all your hopes of alien worlds hopeless.

 

[coconut]

I was falling asleep there at the end. That last paragraph is supposed to read like this.:

One thing that strikes me as evidence of intelligent life on other planets is an African tribe that migrated from Egypt. This tribe has a sacred talisman. It looks like a circle with lines coming off of it. Certain points marrk stars. It's an exact replica of Orions belt, and the tribe claims that is our home constellation. The interesting part is that there are stars marked on it that cannot be seen with the naked eye. They can only be seen with a very powerful telescope. The Orion's belt constellation is also repeated in the formation of the great pyramids in Egypt and in pyramids in Mexico.

There are many sites around the world that were constructed with advanced techniques that could not have been built by ancient cultures with primitive tools. If you doubt it just watch Ancient Aliens. Some of the theories on that show may be stretches, but when they show the stone structures with huge cut stones that are more precisely fitted together, than we could do today with similar tools, then I tend to believe no early human civilizations could have built these things without Alien help.

Then you have the precision of the Nazca lines, and also precise astrological and geographic alignments of many of these huge structures that are so precise that it would be impossible to orient them without GPS technology. The ancient cultures that built these structures did not have that type of technical capability back then.

 

[coconut]

Let me ask you guys this
Where is the intelligent life outside of Earth?

Anyone? Anyone?

If it hasn’t happened yet it’s not happening. The ironic thing is that any so-called clues to intelligent life people have are found on Earth - doesn’t that make it from this word not outer space?

The stars you see in the night sky is light that is hitting your eyes after millions and millions of light years traveling through space - what you think you see is no longer there. Time and distance makes all your hopes of alien worlds hopeless.

I disagree. How do you know it hasn't happened? And I'm not hoping alien intelligent life finds us.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

I disagree. How do you know it hasn't happened? And I'm not hoping alien intelligent life finds us.

It’s a cookbook!!!!!!

* about your point, it’s has nothing to do with me knowing or not knowing - it’s that there is zero proof anywhere. I’d like to see the proof of intelligent life existing outside of Earth. What we are discussing requires real evidence - this isn’t faith - so where is this illusive evidence.

For example - we know dinosaurs exist because we see their bones and see their survivors (crocs etc). If it’s been here before we’d see it now.

 

[ozarkram]

It’s a cookbook!!!!!!

* about your point, it’s has nothing to do with me knowing or not knowing - it’s that there is zero proof anywhere. I’d like to see the proof of intelligent life existing outside of Earth. What we are discussing requires real evidence - this isn’t faith - so where is this illusive evidence.

For example - we know dinosaurs exist because we see their bones and see their survivors (crocs etc). If it’s been here before we’d see it now.

Many of my wife's relatives would fit the bill of evidence. But suprizingly the are not at all highly advanced.

 

[coconut]

It’s a cookbook!!!!!!

* about your point, it’s has nothing to do with me knowing or not knowing - it’s that there is zero proof anywhere. I’d like to see the proof of intelligent life existing outside of Earth. What we are discussing requires real evidence - this isn’t faith - so where is this illusive evidence.

For example - we know dinosaurs exist because we see their bones and see their survivors (crocs etc). If it’s been here before we’d see it now.

Perhaps it is all around us and we have yet to realize it.