The Eye Test is Lying: Why This Defense is Better Than You Think.

[WestCoastRam]

Only time they’ve allowed fewer than 20 points over the last 7 games was week 14 vs Arizona. I think the defense overachieved earlier in the season, and what we’ve got the last 2 months of the season will probably be what we get for the rest of it.

This teams strength is it’s offense. We need the offense scoring at least 35 the rest of the way to have a real shot at this thing.

Jeeze... wonder what changed during that time

 

[bwdenverram]

I actually think Forbes is developing into a solid CB. He's still inconsistent, but I think we'd be just fine if we had a legit #1 CB to pair with Forbes. The problem is that we don't. So Forbes is forced into the #1 role, when he's not that caliber of player (at this time, at least). But yes, the secondary is a weakness. Not sure what Shula can do to mask it, but it's a problem. Lake had an off night against Carolina. Hopefully, he'll perform better against Chicago with the rust knocked off.

I respect that. I'm not sold on Forbes in total, although out of the two I'd take him over Durant. But he's awfully small which is my concern when it comes to sure tackling, etc. I've always been a fan of in your face at the line DB play. Not back off 10 yards and make it easier. But that's just what I prefer.

 

[“Turbo set!”]

In order to win a title, a defense doesn't need to be great. It does need to be good.
If the offense is the GSOT or 1994 49ers, an average defense might be good enough.

I question whether this defense is good. I am not sure this offense is the level as the
two above.

 

[OntarioRam]

From Dec 1 last season, to Nov 23 this season, our defence was routinely holding teams to 15 points or less, often 10 or less. That is absolutely insane, and defies NFL reality. It's just not an NFL level scoreline. And that is a very good sample size.

It feels to me like Shula's defence has been figured out schematically, or teams just have figured out how to exploit our personnel weaknesses, and Shula has no counter-punch. Very worrisome. Yes, our secondary is poor, but we are statistically the worst defence in the NFL the past several weeks. No excuse for that. The personnel, even in the secondary, is nowhere near league-worst. And it's hardly a defence that spends a disproportionate time on the field so that is no excuse like in the Fisher days. Offensive support is about as good as you could realistically ask for.

Season isn't over. Let's see if he can re-write the narrative. Lock things down now on route to a Super Bowl, and he'll have lots of HC offers. If things continue on this trajectory, he'll be seen as a nepo baby, and likely out of a job sooner rather than later.

 

[Steve808]

Lake is coming off of injury. Durant is supposed to be a slot CB and is covering for guys that are hurt. And Curl is a run stopping safety and really shouldn`t be matched up one on one.

Our opponents know all of this and are going at our weaknesses. The draft is a long way off.

I know Lake being out hurt our defense. But just my own observation. Forbes was balling out for the first ten games or so, then he suddenly seemed to become average after that. That's been the key in my opinion, because Forbes was like a #1 shutdown corner for the first 2/3 of the season then suddenly couldn't cover anyone.

 

[XXXIVwin]

Like many on this thread, my eye test says that the Rams have had two different defenses this year-- a dominant one in the first half of the season, and a struggling one in the second half. So IMO stats for the entire season are somewhat meaningless.

The Poona Ford addition has been a home run. Here's hoping that Ford makes a huge impact on run D in the playoffs.

Rams offense is best in the League, we just need the D to make a few key stops.

 

[Merlin]

Opponents ran the ball against us 40 times less this year than last so that's 2.35 attempts difference a game. Three fewer TD's and we all know the long runs against us were nonexistent. I'd say the free agents were a huge reason and the score less so.

I think we can say with certainty that we have a good run defense. Also I think our team tackling under Shula has been improved overall.

Also I think this speaks to the reality that his strength is the front seven. I don't think he's strong on the back end schematically, though if he is smart which I think he is he will learn from this season.

I actually think Forbes is developing into a solid CB. He's still inconsistent, but I think we'd be just fine if we had a legit #1 CB to pair with Forbes. The problem is that we don't. So Forbes is forced into the #1 role, when he's not that caliber of player (at this time, at least). But yes, the secondary is a weakness. Not sure what Shula can do to mask it, but it's a problem. Lake had an off night against Carolina. Hopefully, he'll perform better against Chicago with the rust knocked off.

Forbes is solid at certain things, I suppose. But if he's not drawing an easy pass game threat he's up shit creek. Speed and change of direction separates quickly from him. And size dominates him if they have any speed/physicality in combo.

We got him cheap so I agree he sticks around and we keep working on him. But I fear at this point he's never gonna amount to much. Hopefully we'll get enough talent in here this offseason to where he's a depth piece.

If a team is willing to give us a 1st or 2nd for Young, it's an option, especially if they think Stewart is ready to step into a starting role.

Agreed. Problem is nobody is going to give a 1st or 2nd for an edge who gets home with effort. His contain is special but teams don't pay for that. If the Rams made him available they'd be lucky to get a third rounder for him, which is why I expect they'll let him walk in FA and maybe he gets overpaid and drives a nice comp pick.

But he isn't bendy. He's not powerful. And believe it or not I love the player because he's the only one who really puts out top effort in containment. He's damn good at it. Some of those stops on Young the other day he made look easy but damn they were not easy. I'd love to see us keep him too but this is a business.

 

[DzRams]

I think we can say with certainty that we have a good run defense. Also I think our team tackling under Shula has been improved overall.

Also I think this speaks to the reality that his strength is the front seven. I don't think he's strong on the back end schematically, though if he is smart which I think he is he will learn from this season.


Forbes is solid at certain things, I suppose. But if he's not drawing an easy pass game threat he's up shit creek. Speed and change of direction separates quickly from him. And size dominates him if they have any speed/physicality in combo.

We got him cheap so I agree he sticks around and we keep working on him. But I fear at this point he's never gonna amount to much. Hopefully we'll get enough talent in here this offseason to where he's a depth piece.


Agreed. Problem is nobody is going to give a 1st or 2nd for an edge who gets home with effort. His contain is special but teams don't pay for that. If the Rams made him available they'd be lucky to get a third rounder for him, which is why I expect they'll let him walk in FA and maybe he gets overpaid and drives a nice comp pick.

But he isn't bendy. He's not powerful. And believe it or not I love the player because he's the only one who really puts out top effort in containment. He's damn good at it. Some of those stops on Young the other day he made look easy but damn they were not easy. I'd love to see us keep him too but this is a business.

It may be worth it at a 3rd. That's one less young player you're not signing to an extension so maybe they can have some money to spend on the secondary.

The problem with the comp pick route is they may get nothing if they sign some free agents themselves.

 

[jrry32]

Forbes is solid at certain things, I suppose. But if he's not drawing an easy pass game threat he's up shit creek. Speed and change of direction separates quickly from him. And size dominates him if they have any speed/physicality in combo.

We got him cheap so I agree he sticks around and we keep working on him. But I fear at this point he's never gonna amount to much. Hopefully we'll get enough talent in here this offseason to where he's a depth piece.

I have a higher opinion of him. I think the biggest issue with him is the missed tackles/lack of play strength. But in terms of coverage skills, I see the size and athleticism to be a solid to good #2 CB. And after his rough start to the year, I think he settled in and played mostly good football.

 

[Merlin]

I have a higher opinion of him. I think the biggest issue with him is the missed tackles/lack of play strength. But in terms of coverage skills, I see the size and athleticism to be a solid to good #2 CB. And after his rough start to the year, I think he settled in and played mostly good football.

We'll see. The guys who aren't good enough basically look like he looks: up and down. He definitely has talent. But I don't see it actually translate all that often. Would be nice to see you be right though.

 

[TexasRam]

Forbes has had a few nice games. But seems to me the exception to the whole.

PFF has him at 53.8 which is 93rd of 114 CB rating, which looks about right. Not that PFF is any great authority.

He currently is burnt toast at the moment mentally. But maybe as others have said, It's the bigger wideouts giving him the issues.

 

[Ramit]

From Dec 1 last season, to Nov 23 this season, our defence was routinely holding teams to 15 points or less, often 10 or less. That is absolutely insane, and defies NFL reality. It's just not an NFL level scoreline. And that is a very good sample size.

I just did the math: over the timeframe you specified (a 17-game sample size), we allowed an average of exactly 17 PPG!

Taking the liberty to call that 17 game stretch a season, when ranked against every team since the start of the 2016 season, that would place us in a 3-way tie for 8th place with the '17 Chargers and '21 Bills for the fewest PPG allowed

Like many on this thread, my eye test says that the Rams have had two different defenses this year-- a dominant one in the first half of the season, and a struggling one in the second half. So IMO stats for the entire season are somewhat meaningless.

The Poona Ford addition has been a home run. Here's hoping that Ford makes a huge impact on run D in the playoffs.

Rams offense is best in the League, we just need the D to make a few key stops.

Guess who was injured in the game immediately prior to the scoring defense kinda falling apart? Quentin Lake!

We played the Bucs the week after Lake got hurt and only allowed 7 points. Since then the lowest we've allowed was 17 pts to the Cardinals and have averaged 27.83 ppg against.

It feels to me like Shula's defence has been figured out schematically,...

Naw, I don't think so bro. Shula does more to disguise his coverages than anyone else. I think it as simple as Quentin Lake getting hurt when our average CB room was already banged up a bit. I'm hoping thats the reason anyways because if Shula is figured out and now gives up 28 ppg as a result then we need to give him to some HC hungry team as soon as we can lol

 

[OnceARam]

I know Lake being out hurt our defense. But just my own observation. Forbes was balling out for the first ten games or so, then he suddenly seemed to become average after that. That's been the key in my opinion, because Forbes was like a #1 shutdown corner for the first 2/3 of the season then suddenly couldn't cover anyone.

Yeah, Forbes would make a great backup. From what I have pieced together, he is the same guy. The difference is how on target the QB has been. He is always in a trail position. If the QB throws behind the WR, then Forbes is able to make a play. If the QB is on target, not so much. So Forbes is able to keep up, but isn`t an elite guy that is going to shut someone down. But he seems to be top two on our roster currently, so fingers crossed he stays focused and sticky (like he was against JSN).

 

[duanevalle22]

I think the thing that has me puzzled, is how an 8-9 team that backed their way into the playoffs that at best has an average offense and defense manage to score over 30 points. Ya the ST's made two boneheaded mistakes with the blocked punt and the even dumber unsportsmanlike penalty. Will our offense need to be flawless moving forward? Needing 37 points to beat a bad team is not very encouraging

 

[kmramsfan]

The secondary is definitely not average. Average means they are around ranked #13-17 in the league. An average secondary has at least one top tier defensive back. We have none. Lake is above average but everyone else is below average.

Do you all remember how we lost against the Eagles, Seahawks, Niners, Panthers? We blew leads against the Eagles and Seahawks because the defense gave up big plays in a short amount of time. Mac Jones and Bryce Young had their best games against us.

The Rams defense is ranked much better than Chicago's D, and of course we have the top ranked offense according to the ESPN stats page for the '25 season.
I'm liking our chances on Sunday, if the Rams can play up to their abilities and don't make the big mistakes.
Having some balanced officiating will help too ........ unlike the Carolina game refs, who called 9 for 83 yards against the good guys and only called 4 for 35 against the enemy.
The turnover battle is the other wild card that we need to win in order to move on.

 

[DzRams]

I just did the math: over the timeframe you specified (a 17-game sample size), we allowed an average of exactly 17 PPG!

Taking the liberty to call that 17 game stretch a season, when ranked against every team since the start of the 2016 season, that would place us in a 3-way tie for 8th place with the '17 Chargers and '21 Bills for the fewest PPG allowed

Good research. I'm guessing its even better than this since I suspect you didn't subtract offensive and ST scoring allowed. Pick 6s, punt returns and such are hard things to remember for every game after the fact.

The Lake injury undeniably affected the effectiveness of the D.

 

[duanevalle22]

The Rams defense is ranked much better than Chicago's D, and of course we have the top ranked offense according to the ESPN stats page for the '25 season.
I'm liking our chances on Sunday, if the Rams can play up to their abilities and don't make the big mistakes.
Having some balanced officiating will help too ........ unlike the Carolina game refs, who called 9 for 83 yards against the good guys and only called 4 for 35 against the enemy.
The turnover battle is the other wild card that we need to win in order to move on.

Lets just take a look at the Rams stupid penalties:

Defense:
Jump offside on 3rd and 5 giving the Panthers a 1st down at mid field.
DB having his back to the play when he has the WR already pinned on the back goal line and gets called for a PI. If he had turned around and played the WR like a good DB would have, the ball would have hit him square on his facemask.

Offense
Absolutely dumb holding on a running play killing a drive when we were on our 45 yard line. Let our RB try to make a play or just take the 1 yard loss.

ST
And getting an unsportmanlike penalty and give the Panther offense additional 15 yards. Talk about terrible

 

[majrleaged]

I seriously doubt we pay BY...12 sacks will let his agent ask for 20-25 mil per year potentially. So we're going to have to address that anyways most likely, either this year or next. And given how much we rotate, even with Josiah we would still need someone

I would be curious how many double teams he gets. If when double teamed he still gets pressure. From my eye test he is a complimentary pass rusher. He has really good speed and keeps qbs from escaping outside. Sets the edge very well. Not sure how much that is worth, but I don't think that will put him in the 20mil range.

 

[majrleaged]

This is an unconventional approach so feel free to say I'm crazy, but what about trading Young this offseason for a 1st or 2nd?

Bump Stewart, who I really like, into his starting spot.

Use the acquired draft pick, or a very early pick, for an edge in a very deep, strong class. He takes the role of 3rd rusher like Stewart occupied this year.

Use the money that would have been allocated for a Young extension for the best CB on the market.

How would you like for snead to give up a 1 or a 2 for young?

 

[majrleaged]

I think we can say with certainty that we have a good run defense. Also I think our team tackling under Shula has been improved overall.

Also I think this speaks to the reality that his strength is the front seven. I don't think he's strong on the back end schematically, though if he is smart which I think he is he will learn from this season.


Forbes is solid at certain things, I suppose. But if he's not drawing an easy pass game threat he's up shit creek. Speed and change of direction separates quickly from him. And size dominates him if they have any speed/physicality in combo.

We got him cheap so I agree he sticks around and we keep working on him. But I fear at this point he's never gonna amount to much. Hopefully we'll get enough talent in here this offseason to where he's a depth piece.


Agreed. Problem is nobody is going to give a 1st or 2nd for an edge who gets home with effort. His contain is special but teams don't pay for that. If the Rams made him available they'd be lucky to get a third rounder for him, which is why I expect they'll let him walk in FA and maybe he gets overpaid and drives a nice comp pick.

But he isn't bendy. He's not powerful. And believe it or not I love the player because he's the only one who really puts out top effort in containment. He's damn good at it. Some of those stops on Young the other day he made look easy but damn they were not easy. I'd love to see us keep him too but this is a business.

Young reminds me of Lenard Floyd holding the edge on QBs trying to escape outside. He is fast