The dumbest pick in the draft?

[CGI_Ram]

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Boehringer or Aguayo?

CHICAGO — I want Moritz Boehringer to succeed. I don't think he will, but I want him to. I want him to succeed because he's the coolest story in the draft. I want him to succeed because I like the idea of a player emerging from outside the homogenized, overhyped, overprocessed, overanalyzed NFL draft system.

I love the idea of a player like that becoming a star. It won't happen, but I am crossing my fingers.

Watch tape of Boehringer, and you see some remarkable athleticism and ability. It's in Germany, yes. And that's the problem. This is the list of great NFL players who made their bones playing in Germany:

Calculating...

Calculating...

Yep, got nothing.

There are good basketball players from Germany. Hockey players, too. There is, of course, gorgeous soccer played there.

But football?

Boehringer played for the Schwabisch Hall Unicorns of the German Football League.

The Unicorns. I kinda like it.

I've heard a great deal about Boehringer from NFL scouts. In the personnel community, I'm told, there is a great deal of division about him. It's either love or hate. Nothing in between.

His detractors say the German league is a joke. One scout described it as "not even Division III-level football." Another said the league was actually not bad. The Vikings, who drafted Boehringer in the sixth round Saturday, obviously fall in the latter camp.

He had 59 receptions for 1,232 yards and 13 touchdowns in 16 games with the Unicorns last year. When he worked out at Florida Atlantic's pro day, he ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash and had a 39" vertical leap. Those numbers would have put him right near the top of the receiver class at the combine had he attended.

There is a great deal of professionalism when it comes to the NFL's scouting process. There is also a great deal of elitism. Even as I was writing this, one scout texted me and said it was a joke I was wasting time writing on Boehringer.

Yeah, I want him to make it. Badly.

I'm just not sure he can.

2. "Dumbest pick in the history of the draft"

The Buccaneers took a kicker, Roberto Aguayo, in the second round. Wait. Check that. They traded up to take a kicker in the second round. The Bucs traded third- and fourth-round selections to move into the second round and get a kicker. A kicker.

The Buccaneers have won 23 games in the past five years. They have been putrid. It seems a kicker is the least of their needs, to be kind. One general manager told me the selection was "the dumbest pick in the history of the draft."

That seems to be the consensus in the league. There are, however, outliers.

One scout told me he considered the move to actually be fairly smart. The reason? The rule changes have made kickers extremely valuable. This scout believes that in the next few years, they could become as valuable as running backs. That seems a little extreme, but I get what he's saying.

Extra points are now far from automatic, and a miss can be catastrophic in a game.

The Buccaneers aren't an explosive offense. They play a lot of close games (10 last year within 10 points); there's a good chance Aguayo could win a lot of contests for the team.

Yet as good as Aguayo is, and he might be the best kicker in college history, this selection is easily one of the biggest gambles in draft history.

And maybe the dumbest.

 

[Rynie]

Wow, and I thought us taking a basketball player in the 6th was dumb.

 

[den-the-coach]

I do believe kickers are important, however, maybe 4th round important if you have an extra pick not 2nd round important., In fairness the Buccaneers really suffered with Patrick Murray and Connor Barth last season so desperate times usually result in desperate measures.

However, last season the Steelers who had lost their Kicker Scott Suisham and Garrett Hartley to injury acquired Josh Scobee who failed miserably and seemed jinxed and then signed Chris Boswell who was lights out and now most likely will unseat Suisham this year. You never know with kickers, but when you get a good one you keep them.

 

[bomebadeeda]

After review, I would say Dallas taking Elliot w/ the 4th pick. He is a great back and maybe he raises the bar over McFadden. But they already had added Alfred Morris which already was an upgrade......and then passed on what could be the best defensive player of the draft (not to mention an area of need for them.......) I mean I get the concept of adding a great back to a great line should produce great results. But they needed help on defense (and keeping Romo healthy if possible......)

 

[Mackeyser]

I dunno. It's not just his accuracy... The way the ball pops up makes it extremely hard for teams to block it, thus as he tries to increase his distance, he'll have an advantage over other kickers who naturally have a lower launch trajectory. It doesn't amount to a hill of beans if a kicker can kick 70 yard field goals 100% if they can't get past the LOS...

You look at a kicker like Vinatieri... Anyone think he wouldn't have been worth a second as compared to all the second round busts? Vinatieri's production versus Isaiah Pead?

Seems crazy, but we actually saw games were a missed XP totally changed the dynamic of the game...

We'll see soon enough. We face him on the road in the first few games...

 

[Tron]

The Rams selecting Jarod Goff with the first pick!

 

[Wolfecola]

I dunno. It's not just his accuracy... The way the ball pops up makes it extremely hard for teams to block it, thus as he tries to increase his distance, he'll have an advantage over other kickers who naturally have a lower launch trajectory. It doesn't amount to a hill of beans if a kicker can kick 70 yard field goals 100% if they can't get past the LOS...

You look at a kicker like Vinatieri... Anyone think he wouldn't have been worth a second as compared to all the second round busts? Vinatieri's production versus Isaiah Pead?

Seems crazy, but we actually saw games were a missed XP totally changed the dynamic of the game...

We'll see soon enough. We face him on the road in the first few games...

Great post. Just to add: Starting this season, touchbacks now result in the ball being brought out to the 25. Aguayo has a knack for putting some hang time on his kickoffs. Plus he has never missed a kick within 40 yards-- FG or extra point-- even with the wider hashmarks of college football. Extra points in the NFL are now 32 yard FGs.

I've said this time and time again, but picks in the draft are only worth the players taken in that slot. I equate them to putting your name in a hat in a raffle; The higher the pick, the more chances you have to land that special player. However, if you really covet a player and you have intel that either another team is going to take him OR you see it'll be damn-near impossible to move up later (Jerry Jones/Paxton Lynch), you do whatever is necessary to go and get the guy you want. Also, Tampa gave up a third and a fourth round pick to move up. The fourth round pick they gave up was acquired from a trade earlier, so they really only gave up a third round pick.

I'll admit that a third and a fourth are a little much for a kicker (equate to about a late first), but Tampa didn't draft just a kicker. They drafted the kicker. Most accurate kicker in football history. I'm sure the Patriots or Vikings would've gladly traded those picks in order to win their respective playoff games last year.

 

[jrry32]

I agree with the author that Aguayo was not a smart pick.

Doesn't have the leg and range to be worth that high of a pick.

 

[jjab360]

It is absolutely Aguaoyo.

If you're going to take a kicker in the second round they better be nailing 60 yarders like it's nothing. Based off the hype, I assumed Aguayo was some kind of superman not an 80% guy with a long of 51.

 

[den-the-coach]

We'll see soon enough. We face him on the road in the first few games...

If it works out, it just might change certain philosophies, but it's not the actual selection IMO, it trading multiple picks to draft him, I guess the Buccaneers must of felt another team was going to make a "so called." dumb pick.

 

[Wolfecola]

It is absolutely Aguaoyo.

If you're going to take a kicker in the second round they better be nailing 60 yarders like it's nothing. Based off the hype, I assumed Aguayo was some kind of superman not an 80% guy with a long of 51.

The majority of kicks in the NFL are within forty yards. If you're relying on your kicker to make 60 yard field goals consistently, you're running your offense wrong. See: Frank Cignetti.

Patriots could've won their playoff game last year had their kicker not missed an extra point. Vikings would've definitely won their playoff game had their kicker not missed a 19 yard field goal.

 

[…..]

After review, I would say Dallas taking Elliot w/ the 4th pick. He is a great back and maybe he raises the bar over McFadden. But they already had added Alfred Morris which already was an upgrade......and then passed on what could be the best defensive player of the draft (not to mention an area of need for them.......) I mean I get the concept of adding a great back to a great line should produce great results. But they needed help on defense (and keeping Romo healthy if possible......)

Cannot disagree.

 

[jjab360]

Great post. Just to add: Starting this season, touchbacks now result in the ball being brought out to the 25. Aguayo has a knack for putting some hang time on his kickoffs. Plus he has never missed a kick within 40 yards-- FG or extra point-- even with the wider hashmarks of college football. Extra points in the NFL are now 32 yard FGs.

I'll admit that a mid-second and a third are a little much for a kicker (equate to about a mid-late first), but Tampa didn't draft just a kicker. They drafted the kicker. Most accurate kicker in football history. I'm sure the Patriots or Vikings would've gladly traded those picks in order to win their respective playoff games last year.

Without doing the research, I'm pretty sure that's not true. Greg the Leg for example kicked 95% in college in 2011 with 9 FGs over 50 yards, including two 58 yarders. Still went in the 6th round.

 

[den-the-coach]

Patriots could've won their playoff game last year had their kicker not missed an extra point. Vikings would've definitely won their playoff game had their kicker not missed a 19 yard field goal.

Steven Gostkowski is the best kicker in football so you truly never know along with Blair Walsh who many feel are one of the top kickers in the game. You just have to hope their missed kicks don't cost you a game.

 

[8to12]

I thought this one was a head scratcher from the Browns ;

• 4 th Rnd
  
  #138
  
  
• Seth Devalve
  
  Princeton
  
  
• WR
• 
  Cleveland
  
  
• Compensatory
  

• What he brings:
  
  
  Devalve is an undersized move tight end prospect who has big hands and good speed. He's also a tough and shifty runner after the catch, but the level of competition he faced at Princeton is a concern and he's had some problems staying healthy. In addition, it's unlikely he ever develops into an effective in-line blocker.

 

[jjab360]

The majority of kicks in the NFL are within forty yards. If you're relying on your kicker to make 60 yard field goals consistently, you're running your offense wrong. See: Frank Cignetti.

Patriots could've won their playoff game last year had their kicker not missed an extra point. Vikings would've definitely won their playoff game had their kicker not missed a 19 yard field goal.

The point is having a kicker who can kick 40 yard FGs doesn't add any dimension to your team. You can easily find those guys in UDFA. Heck, GZ was 90% on those before last year. A K who can kick those 55+ yarders changes your gameplan, scores you more points than the other guy. That guy might be worth draft capital. This guy? Not really.

 

[Wolfecola]

After review, I would say Dallas taking Elliot w/ the 4th pick. He is a great back and maybe he raises the bar over McFadden. But they already had added Alfred Morris which already was an upgrade......and then passed on what could be the best defensive player of the draft (not to mention an area of need for them.......) I mean I get the concept of adding a great back to a great line should produce great results. But they needed help on defense (and keeping Romo healthy if possible......)

So McFadden will get injured at some point this coming season, based on his history in the league. You're stuck with Morris and who? Morris is a workhorse, but lacks the home run speed. Elliott was the best pick for Dallas, imo.

You know how you keep Romo healthy? Let him hand the ball of to a triple threat running attack. Play action to Dez. They already have the best offensive line in football! Might as well play to their strengths.

 

[Psycho_X]

I don't have a huge problem with drafting a kicker in the second round especially because of the new extra points if you don't currently have one you trust. But trading a third and a fourth also is just down right mind boggling.

 

[Memento]

It has to be Aguayo. Kickers, punters, and long snappers can be found as UDFAs, not in the second round.

 

[Wolfecola]

The point is having a kicker who can kick 40 yard FGs doesn't add any dimension to your team. You can easily find those guys in UDFA. Heck, GZ was 90% on those before last year. A K who can kick those 55+ yarders changes your gameplan, scores you more points than the other guy. That guy might be worth draft capital. This guy? Not really.

We'll just have to disagree man. A kicker who is as close to automatic within 40 yards as you can possibly get (as well as being an ace at kickoffs) is definitely an added dimension to your team. That's a huge difference than what you're suggesting. GZ has the leg, definitely, but how many kicks within 40 yards did he miss last year? That leg means nothing if the kicker doesn't have the consistency to back it up.

Agree or disagree with the pick, that's fine. But to call it the dumbest pick in the draft? While it was definitely an unconventional pick, I think that's pushing it a little. One could argue that trading multiple picks to draft an FCS QB with limited experience after signing your previous year's starter to a two year deal with almost $20 mil per season was the most ludicrous. Time will tell huh.