Russian Troops Entering Ukraine

[bluecoconuts]

Thats not a red herring, China's desire to hold the power in that region is very real and very important. As for Russia, I don't think they're quite large enough to pose a big enough threat to China, at least not yet. They're getting there, especially with their recent resource discovery. However the talks of them essentially building a new Soviet Union type country is just silly. There's obviously cause for concern, but there are so many other very important aspects that stack the odds very much against Putin. Despite that there seems to be people in the USA practically rooting for Putin to further strengthen their political opinions, he's really not to a level that people are making him out to be. Economically they're not, militarily they're years behind the west at this point, and although they're growing at a more rapid pace than before, the gap that's grown is still quite large and if anything growing wider with the increased development of the west due to essentially being at war the past 13 years. Both from a technological standpoint to an experience and training level, there's no comparison. Now Russia can defend themselves very well, even without resorting to nukes, and could wage a pretty big ground war across Eurasia, but from a military standpoint they would still lose against a combined EU force, even without the US. With the US it's not even close. Even a one on one fight with the US, damage would be done but the fight wouldn't be all that close. Putin knows this as well, he's not stupid.

So with that knowledge, for him to stand tall and allow war to break out, he's either not a rational man, or he has a deathwish. Not going to gain power that way. Economically? Not with a combined EU pushing 17 Trillion on one side, and China pushing 9 and growing on the other. Not to mention USA pushing 17 on their own, and Russia with 2.

He obviously see's the EU as a threat, which is why he made the move he did. See, he's not so unafraid he's doing whatever he wants, he's afraid so he's making a move out of desperation. Ukraine was going to move out of Russia's shadow and move towards the EU. The EU gaining power over former Soviet blocks means less and less for him.

So he made his move. What does he do now? Push further and face both economic and possibly military action? Retreat and allow the EU to gain more influence over nations he currently has an influence with? Hope that the Russian people don't get sick of him fast?

Putin has no moves. He's in a corner and has nowhere to go. He's essentially already lost. Its almost the Kobayashi Maru, a no win situation. He can't push forward and he still loses if he comes back. Putin is just holding out as long as he can because he doesn't want the EU sitting on his doorstep. He won't go to war over this though, it just speeds up the process and he wants to slow it down.

 

[Ram_of_Old]

I was listening to one of the many talking heads that commented on the crisis this weekend and he predicted Putin would back down, but he is waiting to get a couple things out of it. One is the assurance that Ukraine NOT join NATO. And the other is that Russian is recognized as one of the official languages of Ukraine. There may have been another, but I remember those two. I guess a bully can ask for what he wants when he is holding all of the cards.

 

[Thordaddy]

Don't know what "backing down" would entail, I doubt he leaves Crimea ,it has his only warm water port and now that the puppet Crimean legislature has affirmed him , I'd say he stays .

 

[Flipper_336]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/05/ukraine-russia-western-impotence

 

[BonifayRam]

So you think that the US economy, despite being by far the largest economy in the world, almost double that of the next largest and over 8 times larger than Russia doesn't mean anything? There may be issues with our economy but it is anything but feeble or weak. The EU, when combining their economy is just as large and strong. I'd say that's pretty significant.

It takes a leader who the world trust! to lead. Who in the right mind would trust the US to lead in anything? Zero........ The most threatening powerful part of the US (in my mind today) is the IRS....sadly that's just happens to be one US agency that Putin does not have to worry about.

 

[bluecoconuts]

It takes a leader who the world trust! to lead. Who in the right mind would trust the US to lead in anything? Zero........ The most threatening powerful part of the US (in my mind today) is the IRS....sadly that's just happens to be one US agency that Putin does not have to worry about.

You may not, but a vast majority of the world does trust the USA to lead. If it didn't then we wouldn't be the lone hegemonic power.

 

[Thordaddy]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/05/ukraine-russia-western-impotence

Don't know that we've annexed any of those countries, and FWIW we are hard pressed to get English spoken here.

 

[Flipper_336]

Don't know that we've annexed any of those countries, and FWIW we are hard pressed to get English spoken here.

You don't need to speak English to make sense.

FFS, even you Americans make sense occasionally.

 

[Thordaddy]

You don't need to speak English to make sense.

FFS, even you Americans make sense occasionally.

Yes EVEN us

 

[Flipper_336]

Yep: even YOU.

 

[RamFan503]

Thats not a red herring, China's desire to hold the power in that region is very real and very important. As for Russia, I don't think they're quite large enough to pose a big enough threat to China, at least not yet. They're getting there, especially with their recent resource discovery. However the talks of them essentially building a new Soviet Union type country is just silly. There's obviously cause for concern, but there are so many other very important aspects that stack the odds very much against Putin. Despite that there seems to be people in the USA practically rooting for Putin to further strengthen their political opinions, he's really not to a level that people are making him out to be. Economically they're not, militarily they're years behind the west at this point, and although they're growing at a more rapid pace than before, the gap that's grown is still quite large and if anything growing wider with the increased development of the west due to essentially being at war the past 13 years. Both from a technological standpoint to an experience and training level, there's no comparison. Now Russia can defend themselves very well, even without resorting to nukes, and could wage a pretty big ground war across Eurasia, but from a military standpoint they would still lose against a combined EU force, even without the US. With the US it's not even close. Even a one on one fight with the US, damage would be done but the fight wouldn't be all that close. Putin knows this as well, he's not stupid.

So with that knowledge, for him to stand tall and allow war to break out, he's either not a rational man, or he has a deathwish. Not going to gain power that way. Economically? Not with a combined EU pushing 17 Trillion on one side, and China pushing 9 and growing on the other. Not to mention USA pushing 17 on their own, and Russia with 2.

He obviously see's the EU as a threat, which is why he made the move he did. See, he's not so unafraid he's doing whatever he wants, he's afraid so he's making a move out of desperation. Ukraine was going to move out of Russia's shadow and move towards the EU. The EU gaining power over former Soviet blocks means less and less for him.

So he made his move. What does he do now? Push further and face both economic and possibly military action? Retreat and allow the EU to gain more influence over nations he currently has an influence with? Hope that the Russian people don't get sick of him fast?

Putin has no moves. He's in a corner and has nowhere to go. He's essentially already lost. Its almost the Kobayashi Maru, a no win situation. He can't push forward and he still loses if he comes back. Putin is just holding out as long as he can because he doesn't want the EU sitting on his doorstep. He won't go to war over this though, it just speeds up the process and he wants to slow it down.

And China sits idly bye while Russia and the Western World spin their wheels, waste money and resources, and rattle sabers. China wants to be THE world power not just a player in their own region. Russia's economy may only be 1/4 of China but it is growing and that still places them 8th in the world. Add a few former block nations and watch that number climb.

The idea that Russia rebuilding another Soviet Union of sorts being silly is in and of itself silly. The former Soviet Union consisted of several "Republics" controlled by the central Soviet government. With the EU trying to expand control, the Russian gov't is attempting to do the same and reclaim its former block nations. People from within Putin's circle have been talking of his desire to do just that for years. He doesn't have to take these countries over by military force per se but demonstrating a new strength is how he has intended to win them back for the most part. Putin is only in a corner so much as Putin believes he is in a corner. The western world thinks they have him cornered. I think you'd hear a different take by Putin.

So while I would agree that Putin and Russia are likely not capable of actually pulling it off, the idea that they won't try is hopeful at best. Meanwhile, China sits back and watches and will likely do very little even if Europe/Russia erupts into military conflict. That's what I mean by a no lose for China. If - and that's a big if Russia is more successful that most think, China can pick when/if they get involved. That would likely only happen if China views Russia as getting too big for their britches.

 

[RamFan503]

Yep: even YOU.

Let's focus on the story - not each other.

 

[bluecoconuts]

And China sits idly bye while Russia and the Western World spin their wheels, waste money and resources, and rattle sabers. China wants to be THE world power not just a player in their own region. Russia's economy may only be 1/4 of China but it is growing and that still places them 8th in the world. Add a few former block nations and watch that number climb.

The idea that Russia rebuilding another Soviet Union of sorts being silly is in and of itself silly. The former Soviet Union consisted of several "Republics" controlled by the central Soviet government. With the EU trying to expand control, the Russian gov't is attempting to do the same and reclaim its former block nations. People from within Putin's circle have been talking of his desire to do just that for years. He doesn't have to take these countries over by military force per se but demonstrating a new strength is how he has intended to win them back for the most part. Putin is only in a corner so much as Putin believes he is in a corner. The western world thinks they have him cornered. I think you'd hear a different take by Putin.

So while I would agree that Putin and Russia are likely not capable of actually pulling it off, the idea that they won't try is hopeful at best. Meanwhile, China sits back and watches and will likely do very little even if Europe/Russia erupts into military conflict. That's what I mean by a no lose for China. If - and that's a big if Russia is more successful that most think, China can pick when/if they get involved. That would likely only happen if China views Russia as getting too big for their britches.

I don't disagree that Putin may be trying to get a republic style government, but when people talk about the Soviet Union they're not speaking as if it's a collective group of different states under a central government, similar to what the EU is, but rather the regime that they spent a majority of their youth fearing, the polar opposite constantly trying to get the upper hand over the Western nations, a nuclear rival with a finger on the button at all times. The Cold War is over, Russia isn't rebuilding the Soviet Union. Are they trying to increase their power and influence? Of course they are, but that's not the same as rebuilding the Soviet Union.

As for Russia's economy, they're essentially tied for 8th with Italy and the state of California..... With the state of California poised to take sole possession. So while it is growing at a rate faster than before, we can still keep it in perspective. A few former blocks would of course be a small boost, but those countries aren't exactly growing economic powers.

China wants to become the lone power, or at least an equal power similar to what was going on with the Cold War with the US and Soviet Union being equal, but I don't see how this situation leads to that, and I doubt they do either. It's the same reason why they get pretty pissed at North Korea when they act up. The biggest wars are when lower powers attempt to displace the hegemonic powers, and China knows that a war with the US would put them back years, so they're trying to hold it off as long as possible. If they're able to they likely try to overtake the United States without conflict, something that doesn't usually happen. I'd say they're trying to get as close to the US/West as possible so when they do eventually try to become an equal/hegemonic power or overtake the United States they have the best chance possible to succeed. So if this ends the way I expect, they don't lose.... However if Putin makes the west nervous enough that combat erupts then afterwards the western presence in the region would make China's ascension much harder, and will set it back years, which would be a pretty big loss.

I would expect China to be hoping for a peaceful resolution to this. They have more to lose than to gain barring anything that's completely out of left field.

 

[RamFan503]

Yeah - I'm done Blue. I couldn't disagree more with your first paragraph. Putin's Russia still considers itself the logical central gov't of what still should be a Soviet style power. The rest - I'll just leave alone for the future to decide.

Cheers.

 

[bluecoconuts]

Okay, well talk to me when the Soviet Union reunites.

 

[LesBaker]

Okay, well talk to me when the Soviet Union reunites.

Are they going to tour?

 

[Thordaddy]

Russia as Stu says is the worlds 8th largest economy and second most powerful military,yes we are number one militarily but we are also the number one economy.
Considering those ratios it's not hard to see who is preoccupied with imperialism and starving their people to carry out their thuggery.

 

[BonifayRam]

Russians enter town north of Crimea, say Ukrainians
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/10/russians-enter-town-north-crimea-say-ukrainians/

"Ukrainians in the Kherson province just north of Crimea say Russian operatives have moved into the territory, an incursion which, if true, could show Vladimir Putin has more than just the Black Sea peninsula in his sights.
Residents of the village of Chonhar, in the Kherson region of Ukraine, say Russian troops showed up last week in armored personnel carriers, prompting the dispatch of Ukrainian troops and a standoff. The suspected Russian troops pulled back and established a checkpoint on a major road leading north from the Crimean capital of Simferopol."

 

[Ramhusker]

Just learn to speak a little Chinese.

 

[BonifayRam]

Just learn to speak a little Chinese.

It would be best if they just shoot me I can hardly speak deep south English....