Russia is collapsing

[RmsLegends]

ALL THAT and Putin is not reticent to use military force against his people to stay in power, he won't suffer from sanctions his people will and unrest will only get them more grief,as long as he controls the military he's safe.

Sanctions didn't unseat Castro,they didn't unseat Saddam .The single resource they were most lacking in, agriculture, they are acquiring in their takeover of the Ukraine

Yea I have seen the sanction movie before when it comes to a aggressive player before with us when it comes to resources and a capable military. In the last movie we told a country we are gonna sanction ya because ya need raw goods and ya can't have them. So we awoke on a Sunday morn filled the body bags and removed our finished goods that now looked like raw materials cleaned out our harbor, Pearl Harbor to be exact. So I have seen this movie before. Not to say he will go to war. I think we missed a few chances as another movie script from our history vault showed us how ya get Russian guys like Putin who think ya are weak how to respond and would be JFK and the Cuban missile crisis.

I agree with ya though and Putin is not afraid to use the military as he sees it as the answer and kinda hard to back someone into the corner when your leader goes around saying your use of military force is the reason for all your problems.

And ya are right agriculture is a problem, but like I said in a earlier post we would pay for that and feed his nation while we sanction them.

 

[bluecoconuts]

Sanctions are less about forcing a country to collapse and more about hurting their influence and regional power. Although sanctions and a shitty economy will almost certainly not make Russia collapse or kick Putin out of office, or even force him to withdraw from Crimea, it will likely damage his regional influence, which is a huge kick in the balls to Putin.

He's trying to create a Eurasian Union, to rival the EU, but most countries are moving to the EU instead. In fact that was a large reason for the unrest in Ukraine, they were making a deal with the EU, and would have likely joined, putting them right on the Russian boarder. Russia made all sorts of threats over oil and natural gas because of it, got them to move away and the protests broke out.

However now it's almost certain that Putin won't be the central power in an EU rival, and will likely fall even further in world standing (assuming they don't let Russia rejoin the G8... Or G7 now I guess. Without a rival to the EU he can do nothing but watch as his neighbors integrate with them. That's a pretty large political fuck you that the west is sending too.

 

[Ramhusker]

I bet South Dakota is feeling a bit like George Soros right about now. Funny how private activity in just one US State can alter world affairs. Who saw that coming?

 

[Thordaddy]

Yea I have seen the sanction movie before when it comes to a aggressive player before with us when it comes to resources and a capable military. In the last movie we told a country we are gonna sanction ya because ya need raw goods and ya can't have them. So we awoke on a Sunday morn filled the body bags and removed our finished goods that now looked like raw materials cleaned out our harbor, Pearl Harbor to be exact. So I have seen this movie before. Not to say he will go to war. I think we missed a few chances as another movie script from our history vault showed us how ya get Russian guys like Putin who think ya are weak how to respond and would be JFK and the Cuban missile crisis.

I agree with ya though and Putin is not afraid to use the military as he sees it as the answer and kinda hard to back someone into the corner when your leader goes around saying your use of military force is the reason for all your problems.

And ya are right agriculture is a problem, but like I said in a earlier post we would pay for that and feed his nation while we sanction them.

And just how much of the Middle Eastern oil fields do we think Saddam or his successor would currently be in control of had Bush I not kicked him back out of Kuwait and relied upon sanctions and would they be a nuclear power as we speak? since Clinton would have just continued them.
Considering his capabilities then not degraded by Gulf War I with a well financed nuclear program, suffice it to say things would be more "interesting" IMO.

 

[RmsLegends]

Sanctions are less about forcing a country to collapse and more about hurting their influence and regional power. Although sanctions and a crappy economy will almost certainly not make Russia collapse or kick Putin out of office, or even force him to withdraw from Crimea, it will likely damage his regional influence, which is a huge kick in the balls to Putin.

He's trying to create a Eurasian Union, to rival the EU, but most countries are moving to the EU instead. In fact that was a large reason for the unrest in Ukraine, they were making a deal with the EU, and would have likely joined, putting them right on the Russian boarder. Russia made all sorts of threats over oil and natural gas because of it, got them to move away and the protests broke out.

However now it's almost certain that Putin won't be the central power in an EU rival, and will likely fall even further in world standing (assuming they don't let Russia rejoin the G8... Or G7 now I guess. Without a rival to the EU he can do nothing but watch as his neighbors integrate with them. That's a pretty large political freak you that the west is sending too.

Well if that is the case it don't look like the sanctions will hurt their influence and regional power when the outside country who does the largest amount of our production decides they want to help them. And by doing so take a shot at the US dollar. I have not worried as of yet over the Eurasian Union but have thought the SCO could be problematic for the west in both economics and military. India is just a observer for now, but to be a observer it means ya have cleared the path to become a member possibly in the future. So on the heels of China and Russia announcing they plan to do joint military exercises in the PAC and Med next year just last month. This month China announces they are willing to help Russia out economically.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/arti...rattled-economy-chinese-foreign-minister-says

China will support Russia in tackling its economic difficulties, while proposing greater use of the yuan to ensure safe and reliable trade between the two countries, senior Chinese officials say.

The rouble has fallen about 45 per cent against the dollar this year, and suffered particularly steep falls early last week. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has declined to call it a crisis, saying it will eventually rise again.

Speaking to mainland-linked Phoenix Television on the weekend on the sidelines of Premier Li Keqiang's visit to Bangkok, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China was willing to help Russia, if it was needed.

"We believe Russia has the ability and the wisdom to overcome the current economic difficulties," Wang said.

The station did not quote Wang as mentioning any specific measures.

Also during Li's visit, Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng said use of the yuan had been on the rise for years, but more so recently due to Western sanctions on Russia.

Gao said China and Russia had the capacity to achieve this year's trade target of US$100 billion. Last year, trade between the two gained 1.1 per cent to US$89.2 billion, according to Chinese customs figures.

"Capital investors may be more interested in a volatile stock or foreign exchange market. But in terms of concrete cooperation [between the two nations], we shall have a balanced mentality and push forward with cooperation," Gao said.

Cooperation on energy and manufacturing projects would not be greatly affected by the situation in Russia, Gao said. Beijing would instead focus on fundamental factors such as how the two economies complemented each other, he said.

Curtailing the influence of the US dollar fits well with Beijing's ambitions to increase the influence of the yuan and eventually turn it into a global reserve currency. With 32 per cent of its US$4 trillion foreign exchange reserves invested in US government debt, China wants to curb investment risks in the dollar.

 

[bluecoconuts]

That's not what Russia wants though, they want to be the ones people look to for help, not China. China has long wanted to have regional power over that area as well, they and Russia may work together, but they both know each other stands in the way of what they want.

 

[Yamahopper]

I also know a dude who ordered himself up something that he should have never been able to sample naturally. She disappeared once she gained her citizenship.

He swears by his experience and is planning on re-ordering. 2 for 1 would be big news for him.

Say, does he have any spare coupons?

 

[RamzFanz]

I've heard all you need is a 10LB bag of potatoes and a gallon of vodka in trade. Could just be rumors though.

 

[RmsLegends]

That's not what Russia wants though, they want to be the ones people look to for help, not China. China has long wanted to have regional power over that area as well, they and Russia may work together, but they both know each other stands in the way of what they want.

That might not be what Russia wants, but do ya think they will turn down the help? What about what we want was our sanctions put in place so China could offer to help them and give them a end run around our sanctions?

As far as Russia and China's individual goals as separate nations that don't have to be a death sentence. Us and the UK has separate goals and we are chummy as heck. Yea I know now ya say well they are not the US and the UK. Honestly they could end being just as chummy as they have a common cause between them the US and they went as far to form a alliance called the BFF alliance just like they are a couple school girls texting.

 

[bluecoconuts]

That might not be what Russia wants, but do ya think they will turn down the help? What about what we want was our sanctions put in place so China could offer to help them and give them a end run around our sanctions?

As far as Russia and China's individual goals as separate nations that don't have to be a death sentence. Us and the UK has separate goals and we are chummy as heck. Yea I know now ya say well they are not the US and the UK. Honestly they could end being just as chummy as they have a common cause between them the US and they went as far to form a alliance called the BFF alliance just like they are a couple school girls texting.

The U.S. and U.K. are chummy because we're not competing for something that cannot be shared. For a while we were, and we were very much not chummy, it was when we stopped that we became such close allies. Putin may accept the help, he may not. He's a very prideful person and holds a lot of influence over his government, where appearances are nearly everything.

I'm not sure what you think we should have done, gone to war? Over Crimea? That would be an awful move politically. Nothing? That's not smart either. So we hit them with sanctions, and start to assimilate with his neighbors, and bring our western culture to his doorsteps. Much like we did in Western Berlin, we put on a show for those on the East, just because it was right there. There's more than one way to punish a country for aggressive actions, and we're exploring one way that will likely get to Putin on a personal level.

Make no mistake though, going to war and forcing Putin out of Crimea would be an awful choice. Crimea is home to one of Russia's very few warm water ports (meaning they can use them year round), they have less than 10 I believe, and the only one that allows them to monitor that region well, home to one of their fleets which they see vital to their national security. That's a big deal to them.


Imagine that Hawaii was actually their own country instead of the United States, but we still had Pearl Harbor there, so they allowed us to use it freely. Then one day they start to get chummy with North Korea and agree to enter into a trade agreement with them and open up travel and assimilate with them. We're not happy about that obviously, so we put pressure on them to come back to us. When they do, protests break out and suddenly people throw out the controlling leader to continue with the move. So what do we do? Risk losing the port and access to the region? Now imagine Pear Harbor is the only port we have availabile (which really it is for right there, but for sake of the analogy let's say we don't have ports on the West coast for whatever reason) so what do we do?

We go and take control of O'ahu to protect our port, and thus our defense. Now imagine China comes and tries to kick us out via military force, do we let them? Do we let them park themselves right at our back door, kick us out of our old port by force, and let them force us to lose our ability to monitor the region? Fat fucking chance we do, we buck up and get ready for a fight. Especially if China is just getting out of some long wars and the population doesn't seem to have any desire to fight another potentially very costly war, we estimate their resolve isn't that high, and hopefully putting up a fight will keep them from really committing heavy forces.

Using force likely gets a strong reaction, hardly worth it for a port/ region that we don't really care about, and our ally was looking to increase relations with. So its far smarter to look at alternative actions, sanctions, especially given their extremely optimistic economic projections (unlikely to come to fruition), and a volitile population, look like a better option at this time. If China steps in to help them, then that's part of global politics. That still won't let Russia create a Eurasian Union, or increase their regional power, or create another bipolar political environment, all of which are Putin's political goals.

War however, even though we would ultimately whup their asses up and down the globe, would be extremely costly, and the risk of going nuclear would be very high. Any leader who rushed into that fight would be a fool. Which is why nobody is doing that.

 

[Thordaddy]

Not to go back on previous declaration about the futility of sanctions ,I will say the ones Carter imposed set the Soviets up for Reagan's arms race like a stiff jab before an overhand right.

 

[RmsLegends]

The U.S. and U.K. are chummy because we're not competing for something that cannot be shared. For a while we were, and we were very much not chummy, it was when we stopped that we became such close allies. Putin may accept the help, he may not. He's a very prideful person and holds a lot of influence over his government, where appearances are nearly everything.

Two events in the last century that really helped drive our current relationship. The first event was World War One and the second was World War Two. WW2 has really defined our current relationship and how we saw we had to counter the then red menace following the war. So we built a modern world based more on who our enemy and our friendship grew strong out of this common cause that united us. So anyway I am not sure how ya defined our friendship when ya said.....is because we competed for something then we didn't. So I am not sure what ya mean?

Putin will except help from China because it is a big middle finger in the face of the US. And like Russia drove a lot of our policy and a willingness to work with fellow western nations. I am pretty sure ya could count on Russia taking aid from China if they need to. Thing is they may or may not need to depending if current economic factors are still in place in the weeks and months ahead.

I'm not sure what you think we should have done, gone to war? Over Crimea? That would be an awful move politically. Nothing? That's not smart either. So we hit them with sanctions, and start to assimilate with his neighbors, and bring our western culture to his doorsteps. Much like we did in Western Berlin, we put on a show for those on the East, just because it was right there. There's more than one way to punish a country for aggressive actions, and we're exploring one way that will likely get to Putin on a personal level.

Make no mistake though, going to war and forcing Putin out of Crimea would be an awful choice. Crimea is home to one of Russia's very few warm water ports (meaning they can use them year round), they have less than 10 I believe, and the only one that allows them to monitor that region well, home to one of their fleets which they see vital to their national security. That's a big deal to them.

Put a show on for? Assimilate? I am lost it reads to me like ya think we are just now interacting with the Ukraine? Trust me they have been well aware of our western culture for a few decades now. Yea I am aware of Russia's ports and what advantages each holds and what each port allows them to do and project. I many moons ago used to collect info for our nation and while I was in Turkey across the Black Sea was Sevastopol.

Imagine that Hawaii was actually their own country instead of the United States, but we still had Pearl Harbor there, so they allowed us to use it freely. Then one day they start to get chummy with North Korea and agree to enter into a trade agreement with them and open up travel and assimilate with them. We're not happy about that obviously, so we put pressure on them to come back to us. When they do, protests break out and suddenly people throw out the controlling leader to continue with the move. So what do we do? Risk losing the port and access to the region? Now imagine Pear Harbor is the only port we have availabile (which really it is for right there, but for sake of the analogy let's say we don't have ports on the West coast for whatever reason) so what do we do?

We go and take control of O'ahu to protect our port, and thus our defense. Now imagine China comes and tries to kick us out via military force, do we let them? Do we let them park themselves right at our back door, kick us out of our old port by force, and let them force us to lose our ability to monitor the region? Fat freaking chance we do, we buck up and get ready for a fight. Especially if China is just getting out of some long wars and the population doesn't seem to have any desire to fight another potentially very costly war, we estimate their resolve isn't that high, and hopefully putting up a fight will keep them from really committing heavy forces.

Using force likely gets a strong reaction, hardly worth it for a port/ region that we don't really care about, and our ally was looking to increase relations with. So its far smarter to look at alternative actions, sanctions, especially given their extremely optimistic economic projections (unlikely to come to fruition), and a volitile population, look like a better option at this time. If China steps in to help them, then that's part of global politics. That still won't let Russia create a Eurasian Union, or increase their regional power, or create another bipolar political environment, all of which are Putin's political goals.

War however, even though we would ultimately whup their asses up and down the globe, would be extremely costly, and the risk of going nuclear would be very high. Any leader who rushed into that fight would be a fool. Which is why nobody is doing that.

I don't think ya had to use and make a hypothetical story up over Hawaii when ya could have just used the real life scenario where we actually have a base and the country we have it in got chummy with Russia, of course the Naval base is Gitmo and the foreign country Cuba.

 

[bluecoconuts]

I'm still not sure what you think we should do or should have done differently, and if you're saying we should have gone to war, I'm saying that is an absolutely horrible idea.

 

[RmsLegends]

I'm still not sure what you think we should do or should have done differently, and if you're saying we should have gone to war, I'm saying that is an absolutely horrible idea.

I have not put forth any real suggestions as to what I feel we should do as I would have to analyze all possible variables. The name of this thread is Russia is collapsing. So I have played devils advocate with post that originally read like they believed this premise. So ya are correct ya are unsure what I believe we should do as I have not really said, I have said we need stronger leadership like for example JFK during the Cuban missile crisis, but saying we need stronger leadership out of our White House is the same as saying the sun will rise in the east. So no profound statement on my part their to say the obvious.

 

[bluecoconuts]

I agree that Russia isn't collapsing, in terms of stronger leadership, yeah probably, but given that presidents are human, there's always the wonder of what stronger leadership could achieve. The Cuban Missile crisis was resolved through diplomatic relationships and an negotiations though, they removed weapons from Cuba, we quietly removed ours from Turkey, and promised publicly that we wouldn't invade Cuba unless attacked. Pretty standard stuff though, I don't really know of many trades that would really benefit us at this point though, Crimea isn't strategicly worth much to us.

 

[Corbin]

Without oil as a backbone export they have decide to focus on exporting:

Daughters

I'll take 2 please