Russia is collapsing

[RamFan503]

Benevolent leadership in Russia bro heck Putin could be that compared to what their historical past has been.........LOL

Very true.

 

[-X-]

So Russia is tanking, and we set up shop with Cuba.

Correlations anyone?

 

[Greg Stone]

OPEC has been unmanageable for the last decade at least. Saudi could not get agreement for a cut back in any event so this plan to drive others out of the market by pricing under their production costs has a tiny amount of merit but is mainly spin to cover their lack of power. Russia was in steady decline before the oil crash due to their "victory" in Crimea and the Ukraine. Putin is in a desperate situation and it may cause him to act more recklessly rather than less.

 

[RamFan503]

So Russia is tanking, and we set up shop with Cuba.

Correlations anyone?

Yuh think? Nah - couldn't be.

 

[RhodyRams]

I feel smarter just reading this thread

 

[RamFan503]

I feel smarter just reading this thread

Don't worry. That will go away soon.

 

[Greg Stone]

So Russia is tanking, and we set up shop with Cuba.

Correlations anyone?

Yuh think? Nah - couldn't be.

Given that this is the result of talks between Cuba and the US that have gone on for a year at the Vatican I don't think so.

 

[RhodyRams]

Don't worry. That will go away soon.

what will go away? That rash?

 

[-X-]

Given that this is the result of talks between Cuba and the US that have gone on for a year at the Vatican I don't think so.

The fact that this has been kept in secrecy (not leaked) by ANYONE in Washington is almost alarming.

 

[RamFan503]

Given that this is the result of talks between Cuba and the US that have gone on for a year at the Vatican I don't think so.

You don't think the undermining of the Russian economy just started happening do you? We've wanted to normalize relations with Cuba for some time but I'm going to guess we had a little emphasis added recently.

 

[jrry32]

Hopefully this will force Russia to back down in its aggression to get the sanctions lifted. And if it gets Putin ousted, even better.

 

[Force16X]

can anyone find the article within the last day or two saying that russia can stabilize the ruble by selling U.S. debt which in turn lowers the value of the dollar ? i thought thats what i read, could be wrong.

 

[bluecoconuts]

can anyone find the article within the last day or two saying that russia can stabilize the ruble by selling U.S. debt which in turn lowers the value of the dollar ? i thought thats what i read, could be wrong.

I believe Russia's economy relies on the strength of the USD, because their economy is all about oil, and the petrodollar is based of the USD. Plus I'm not really sure how much US Debt Russia really has. Either way international debt doesn't really mean much.

 

[RmsLegends]

can anyone find the article within the last day or two saying that russia can stabilize the ruble by selling U.S. debt which in turn lowers the value of the dollar ? i thought thats what i read, could be wrong.

They are doing like they did back in 1998 when they had the same crisis with the ruble. Russia had a system where they had a float peg to the dollar. Which means they only allowed a certain float or movement of the ruble to the dollar as in so many basis points. Depending on how it moved they would buy so many dollars to keep the ruble in a certain range. So in 1998 what they did was remove the float system and let the ruble free fall. They then raised interest rates to such levels to keep more of their domestic money at home. They also used barter were goods were traded for goods and no paper currency switched hands. An worked on controlling inflation at home.

The free fall worked for them as the ruble just plummeted so when oil went up they just went back and pegged the rubble to the dollar again and their currency recovered a lot of it's value. So they back on Nov 10 already forecasting this crisis was gonna happen again unpegged the ruble from the Dollar and Euro. This has allowed the rubble to free fall so now they raise interest rates again and try and keep as much of the currency at home.

They unpeg the rubble and don't try and save it against the dollar and by doing so they then can use dollars and euro's to buy stuff they will need directly off the world market. Meanwhile waiting for oil to go back up and then repeg the rubble again to the dollar and have that recover their currencies value. Of course this is a simplification of all they did but gives a gist of how they are doing the same moves they did back in 1998 and waiting for oil to go back up.

 

[RamFan503]

They are doing like they did back in 1998 when they had the same crisis with the ruble. Russia had a system where they had a float peg to the dollar. Which means they only allowed a certain float or movement of the ruble to the dollar as in so many basis points. Depending on how it moved they would buy so many dollars to keep the ruble in a certain range. So in 1998 what they did was remove the float system and let the ruble free fall. They then raised interest rates to such levels to keep more of their domestic money at home. They also used barter were goods were traded for goods and no paper currency switched hands. An worked on controlling inflation at home.

The free fall worked for them as the ruble just plummeted so when oil went up they just went back and pegged the rubble to the dollar again and their currency recovered a lot of it's value. So they back on Nov 10 already forecasting this crisis was gonna happen again unpegged the ruble from the Dollar and Euro. This has allowed the rubble to free fall so now they raise interest rates again and try and keep as much of the currency at home.

They unpeg the rubble and don't try and save it against the dollar and by doing so they then can use dollars and euro's to buy stuff they will need directly off the world market. Meanwhile waiting for oil to go back up and then repeg the rubble again to the dollar and have that recover their currencies value. Of course this is a simplification of all they did but gives a gist of how they are doing the same moves they did back in 1998 and waiting for oil to go back up.

Doesn't this kill their rating among international currencies?

 

[RmsLegends]

Doesn't this kill their rating among international currencies?

Yea it does bro, but don't matter as ya are looking to keep your currency at home. Ya use stable currencies such as the dollar and euro on the international market. Most countries want to be paid in one or the other anyway and it works because ya get paid in dollars which ya bring back home and can't use so ya have to convert them back to your currency to spend.

So what Russia will do is cut out the conversion. Normally they would peg their ruble to the dollar so when they need to go buy something they can say we have x amount of rubles so we can convert it x amount of dollars and we can do this because we have valued our ruble to the dollar so we know x amount equals x amount. So to keep it as such they have to buy or sell x amount of one to keep the value of the other.

So ya unpeg your value and ya no longer have to spend x amount of one to equal x amount of the other. So then instead of using one worrying about stabilizing your currency to buy dollars. Ya just use the dollars ya have in reserves to buy directly from the international market. Your dollars are already worth more than ya paid for them as ya got them on sale when the US sold them and diluted the value of the dollar through QE. The value of them went up because ya and others bought them at a discount and then removed them from circulation holding them in reserve. So not just dollars but euro's as well.

Ya don't have to worry about the dollars as the ECB has just announced they are gonna do one trillion in QE themselves. So ya can convert back and forth between dollars and euro's as it is the most widely accepted currency on the international market and most widely traded so they convert back and forth with total ease. Meanwhile ya can buy some euro's now at a discount and again no problem with the conversion.

So ya no longer use your dollars and euro's to prop up your money but on the international market to buy goods. Meanwhile your currency tanks, but since ya are only using it at home instead of internationally your pain at home is limited. Ya ride out the pain until circumstances are in your favor again such as higher priced oil to once again use your ruble for currency conversion to buy things on the international market.

Your pain is also limited as the play book used by thugs time and again has shown it will work and ya get the very western nations trying to force ya into a corner to show ya the way out.

An such a example of this is the western nations have set up free stuff through organizations such as the UN and others who will give ya what ya need even though is counter to the effect their sanctions are supposed to have on ya. Ya can go say hey my people are starving from the sanctions and the UN will drop food on your door step free of charge and even pay for the shipping. If ya follow history ya can see how time and again thugs then flip the free stuff for currency they can get from the international market if they want to repackage it or black market if they don't.

Examples were after some get the free stuff they take it from the intended users and then just resell it for currency. Pissing of the kind heated west so they have to make sure next time they give ya more since they know some is gonna be taken from the intended users.

Anyway plenty more examples were the west has set up ways ya can counter their anger with the west's very help and ya are only as limited as to your imagination and whether or not ya care if your name is seen as mud.

So like the long history of nations we in the west have sanctioned and acquiesced to the popular opinion at home to show that we are doing something so we can get reelected and look like we listen to the populous voice to do something whether or not history has shown time and time again it does not work. It is more important to make it look like we listen even if the desired results are never there or we have already made a escape clause packaged as humanitarian aid and put it the hands of others to control while we fund it.

Russia has already been were they are today in 98 and 2008 so they already know measures they can take to lesson the pain and not as worried about their people getting to out of line since they have a longer history of being have not's rather than being haves.

So why I speculate if it gets to painful they will use another favorite of the west's the roll on or rat out. So why I can see Russia or us at some point saying hey we find ya despicable, but we find Iran more so, so if ya help us and roll on them we will cut ya a deal. Not to mention in the mean time ya apply for some free stuff paid for by the west while ya ride out their sanctions and if ya are willing enough to be seen as the bad guy scoop some of it up and sell it at 100% profit.

So anyway whether or not that happens as just speculation on my part I do see them lasting the pain until oil goes back up and naturally solves their currency problem at which point they will just turn around and peg it to the dollar all over again.

 

[RamFan503]

Yea it does bro, but don't matter as ya are looking to keep your currency at home. Ya use stable currencies such as the dollar and euro on the international market. Most countries want to be paid in one or the other anyway and it works because ya get paid in dollars which ya bring back home and can't use so ya have to convert them back to your currency to spend.

So what Russia will do is cut out the conversion. Normally they would peg their ruble to the dollar so when they need to go buy something they can say we have x amount of rubles so we can convert it x amount of dollars and we can do this because we have valued our ruble to the dollar so we know x amount equals x amount. So to keep it as such they have to buy or sell x amount of one to keep the value of the other.

So ya unpeg your value and ya no longer have to spend x amount of one to equal x amount of the other. So then instead of using one worrying about stabilizing your currency to buy dollars. Ya just use the dollars ya have in reserves to buy directly from the international market. Your dollars are already worth more than ya paid for them as ya got them on sale when the US sold them and diluted the value of the dollar through QE. The value of them went up because ya and others bought them at a discount and then removed them from circulation holding them in reserve. So not just dollars but euro's as well.

Ya don't have to worry about the dollars as the ECB has just announced they are gonna do one trillion in QE themselves. So ya can convert back and forth between dollars and euro's as it is the most widely accepted currency on the international market and most widely traded so they convert back and forth with total ease. Meanwhile ya can buy some euro's now at a discount and again no problem with the conversion.

So ya no longer use your dollars and euro's to prop up your money but on the international market to buy goods. Meanwhile your currency tanks, but since ya are only using it at home instead of internationally your pain at home is limited. Ya ride out the pain until circumstances are in your favor again such as higher priced oil to once again use your ruble for currency conversion to buy things on the international market.

Your pain is also limited as the play book used by thugs time and again has shown it will work and ya get the very western nations trying to force ya into a corner to show ya the way out.

An such a example of this is the western nations have set up free stuff through organizations such as the UN and others who will give ya what ya need even though is counter to the effect their sanctions are supposed to have on ya. Ya can go say hey my people are starving from the sanctions and the UN will drop food on your door step free of charge and even pay for the shipping. If ya follow history ya can see how time and again thugs then flip the free stuff for currency they can get from the international market if they want to repackage it or black market if they don't.

Examples were after some get the free stuff they take it from the intended users and then just resell it for currency. Pissing of the kind heated west so they have to make sure next time they give ya more since they know some is gonna be taken from the intended users.

Anyway plenty more examples were the west has set up ways ya can counter their anger with the west's very help and ya are only as limited as to your imagination and whether or not ya care if your name is seen as mud.

So like the long history of nations we in the west have sanctioned and acquiesced to the popular opinion at home to show that we are doing something so we can get reelected and look like we listen to the populous voice to do something whether or not history has shown time and time again it does not work. It is more important to make it look like we listen even if the desired results are never there or we have already made a escape clause packaged as humanitarian aid and put it the hands of others to control while we fund it.

Russia has already been were they are today in 98 and 2008 so they already know measures they can take to lesson the pain and not as worried about their people getting to out of line since they have a longer history of being have not's rather than being haves.

So why I speculate if it gets to painful they will use another favorite of the west's the roll on or rat out. So why I can see Russia or us at some point saying hey we find ya despicable, but we find Iran more so, so if ya help us and roll on them we will cut ya a deal. Not to mention in the mean time ya apply for some free stuff paid for by the west while ya ride out their sanctions and if ya are willing enough to be seen as the bad guy scoop some of it up and sell it at 100% profit.

So anyway whether or not that happens as just speculation on my part I do see them lasting the pain until oil goes back up and naturally solves their currency problem at which point they will just turn around and peg it to the dollar all over again.

Fascinating. I follow most of what you are saying. And yeah - it is frustrating how leadership throughout the West and the world in general goes through all these machinations for short term political gamesmanship.

It will be interesting to see how Putin weathers all this. As you said, the Russian people are more used to going without than we really consider some times. They are not so far removed from bread lines that I suspect going backward economically would feel all that out of place. Putin also has a pretty tight grip on the political structure of Russia and his persona really aids him in maintaining control. It certainly doesn't hurt that he was in place during their economic revival.

One can hope though - eh?

 

[Thordaddy]

Hopefully this will force Russia to back down in its aggression to get the sanctions lifted. And if it gets Putin ousted, even better.

Didn't someone say something like that about Sadaam Hussein?

 

[RmsLegends]

Didn't someone say something like that about Sadaam Hussein?

LOL.....oh for sure bro and what is crazy is daily now I read media reports how the Crimea and now the drop in oil could undue them. I just laugh and say has any of these reporters or writers or think tanks not just lived any of the history of the world since WW2? Have they not viewed Russia on a map? Have they not read the CIA's geopolitical fact book? As I figure if they did realize or look at any of these they would realize oil has been kind to them, but their nation is positioned quite nice on the world map that makes them number 1 and 2 for some natural resources. Top 5 for others and top 10 for even some more.

They must have forgot that we fought a cold war with them and one of the things out of the cold war we had to do was innovate beyond them as they might not be as technological as us, but they are no slouches. So not like they can't build good avionics, manufactured equipment or even get paid by us to carry some stuff into space for us. So silly to think just cause oil is on a downturn they lost their ability to manufacture for all their natural resources.

Maybe they forgot Russia used to switch places with us for who made and sold more military hardware for that year and not a skill set they suddenly forgot because oil moved to the forefront for their economy. Not like they can't fire up a few of those factories and sell some weapons as plenty of buyers out there.

We literally just told a nation who has more natural resources than us we are gonna sanction ya and get ya to see things our way. Meanwhile they can scratch their heads and say what do ya have we don't already have in natural resources. So all we did was say we are no longer gonna sell ya a finished product. So do we think that a country that is rich in raw materials that might not be a technological smart as us but smart enough we and other nations use their space program to get stuff into space. Do we think that are sanctions means they will be so flabbergast they won't just say ok we will just turn to internal production of finished goods since we have the raw materials to do so. Which if they go that route might not be as cheap to buy the products from us but could revolutionize their domestic economy.

An we are standing toe to toe with a world leader who thinks we are weak because unlike him we don't have on speed dial the names of some more unsavory characters in the world. Characters who don't mind blowing something up in the name of whatever cause. I am not saying Putin would, but can any of us say he is above if oil don't get to the price he needs. Calling a number or two on his speed dial and say I will supply the hardware if ya guys want to blow up a oil rig or two or put a harbor or two out of commission. And let them take the blame under a false flag.

We already know a glut in oil is causing the down turn in price so if he finds a way to make sure demand is more than supply can we say he wouldn't do that? Of course pure speculation but not out of his wheel house though.

I just find it silly daily I read how we have them on the ropes meanwhile they have the materials to build the ropes, canvas, turn buckles, metal post and the stairs.................LOL

I just can't get over how soon some things have been forgotten meanwhile we ignore how rich they are in raw goods and because they have not yet decided to turn some of those raw goods into finished materials we think we have them were we want them. For Russia these sanctions could be the best thing to ever happen to their economy as it might finally be the thing that makes them see oh we already have everything we need right here at home and all we have to do is employ our mass numbers of people to get it from the ground onto the table.

 

[Thordaddy]

LOL.....oh for sure bro and what is crazy is daily now I read media reports how the Crimea and now the drop in oil could undue them. I just laugh and say has any of these reporters or writers or think tanks not just lived any of the history of the world since WW2? Have they not viewed Russia on a map? Have they not read the CIA's geopolitical fact book? As I figure if they did realize or look at any of these they would realize oil has been kind to them, but their nation is positioned quite nice on the world map that makes them number 1 and 2 for some natural resources. Top 5 for others and top 10 for even some more.

They must have forgot that we fought a cold war with them and one of the things out of the cold war we had to do was innovate beyond them as they might not be as technological as us, but they are no slouches. So not like they can't build good avionics, manufactured equipment or even get paid by us to carry some stuff into space for us. So silly to think just cause oil is on a downturn they lost their ability to manufacture for all their natural resources.

Maybe they forgot Russia used to switch places with us for who made and sold more military hardware for that year and not a skill set they suddenly forgot because oil moved to the forefront for their economy. Not like they can't fire up a few of those factories and sell some weapons as plenty of buyers out there.

We literally just told a nation who has more natural resources than us we are gonna sanction ya and get ya to see things our way. Meanwhile they can scratch their heads and say what do ya have we don't already have in natural resources. So all we did was say we are no longer gonna sell ya a finished product. So do we think that a country that is rich in raw materials that might not be a technological smart as us but smart enough we and other nations use their space program to get stuff into space. Do we think that are sanctions means they will be so flabbergast they won't just say ok we will just turn to internal production of finished goods since we have the raw materials to do so. Which if they go that route might not be as cheap to buy the products from us but could revolutionize their domestic economy.

An we are standing toe to toe with a world leader who thinks we are weak because unlike him we don't have on speed dial the names of some more unsavory characters in the world. Characters who don't mind blowing something up in the name of whatever cause. I am not saying Putin would, but can any of us say he is above if oil don't get to the price he needs. Calling a number or two on his speed dial and say I will supply the hardware if ya guys want to blow up a oil rig or two or put a harbor or two out of commission. And let them take the blame under a false flag.

We already know a glut in oil is causing the down turn in price so if he finds a way to make sure demand is more than supply can we say he wouldn't do that? Of course pure speculation but not out of his wheel house though.

I just find it silly daily I read how we have them on the ropes meanwhile they have the materials to build the ropes, canvas, turn buckles, metal post and the stairs.................LOL

I just can't get over how soon some things have been forgotten meanwhile we ignore how rich they are in raw goods and because they have not yet decided to turn some of those raw goods into finished materials we think we have them were we want them. For Russia these sanctions could be the best thing to ever happen to their economy as it might finally be the thing that makes them see oh we already have everything we need right here at home and all we have to do is employ our mass numbers of people to get it from the ground onto the table.

ALL THAT and Putin is not reticent to use military force against his people to stay in power, he won't suffer from sanctions his people will and unrest will only get them more grief,as long as he controls the military he's safe.

Sanctions didn't unseat Castro,they didn't unseat Saddam .The single resource they were most lacking in, agriculture, they are acquiring in their takeover of the Ukraine