ROD Pick 19 Poll (Pre-Combine Edition)

[Selassie I]

Seems like you are giving undue weight to a single piece of information (race) relative to others (size, speed, athleticism, production, scouting reports) when you eliminate a guy like DeJean from consideration at this stage in the process.

Seems that way to you.

I've mentioned other factors from the start.

But it is a huge red flag no matter what someone chooses to believe.

1st round pick... I choose to gamble the least with that. I'll use all of the information available not just some. Picking the exception rather than the rule isn't my idea of gambling wisely. Hell gambling at all is dumb if someone believes they can make a living doing it. I don't stick my head in the sand because something may be uncomfortable to talk about for some.

All anyone can do at this point is give their best guess. My guess is that you won't throw down some cold hard cash with me

Is that the current rate? After reading your post I went to PFR and took a look at the first round for the last 3 drafts. It certainly looks like a 70-75% hit rate to me.....over those 3 drafts. Take out QBs as they are heavily over drafted and the percentage goes up.

If in the last 3 years rates have increased to 70%... that certainly is a sign that the decision makers are improving the craft. But 70% isn't all that impressive when you consider the highest valued draft picks of all flake out 30% of the time. But I wasn't talking about the last 3 years, I was talking modern Era. I still believe some teams have 50% hit rates today or less on a consistent level, while better run teams have much higher rates. But again, I have always heard that 1st rounds picks have about a 50/50 hit rate. Hopefully it is improving as much as you say recently. With all the info at our fingertips today and the advancements in tech used... the hit rates certainly should be improving.

 

[Ram Ts]

The DJ athletic conversation is way off. Having said that, I still prefer QMitchell or Wiggins to him. Mainly because of the prior injury; but also I’m more certain those two stay at CB.

 

[AvengerRam]

Seems that way to you.

I've mentioned other factors from the start.

But it is a huge red flag no matter what someone chooses to believe.

1st round pick... I choose to gamble the least with that. I'll use all of the information available not just some. Picking the exception rather than the rule isn't my idea of gambling wisely. Hell gambling at all is dumb if someone believes they can make a living doing it. I don't stick my head in the sand because something may be uncomfortable to talk about for some.

All anyone can do at this point is give their best guess. My guess is that you won't throw down some cold hard cash with me

I’m not uncomfortable, I just disagree with your methodology.

As for a bet (strange that you would suggest that after saying “gambling is dumb”) how does that work…I get Cooper DeJean and you get the field? I’m going to need pretty good odds on that one.

 

[Corbin]

Can we end the conversation here and say it won’t matter…

We are drafting the best QB in the draft

 

[Selassie I]

I’m not uncomfortable, I just disagree with your methodology.

As for a bet (strange that you would suggest that after saying “gambling is dumb”) how does that work…I get Cooper DeJean and you get the field? I’m going to need pretty good odds on that one.

Well, making a bet against another person is a lot different than casino gambling. When you make a bet against another person... it usually shows how much, if at all, another person truly believes in what they are saying.

I'd bet that Dejean is not going to be a highly rated/graded CB in the NFL. No doubt that he could play safety... he is probably a good bet to be a very solid safety. He may also get the chance to show his return skills on special teams. But his hips aren't going to be the kind needed to play CB at the NFL level... especially 1st round pick level.

You wanna throw down some on betting against that... let me know and we can narrow down the specifics more.

I would love to see the kid beat the odds and prove my thinking wrong. I wouldn't be willing to bet any money on that though.

 

[AvengerRam]

Well, making a bet against another person is a lot different than casino gambling. When you make a bet against another person... it usually shows how much, if at all, another person truly believes in what they are saying.

I'd bet that Dejean is not going to be a highly rated/graded CB in the NFL. No doubt that he could play safety... he is probably a good bet to be a very solid safety. He may also get the chance to show his return skills on special teams. But his hips aren't going to be the kind needed to play CB at the NFL level... especially 1st round pick level.

You wanna throw down some on betting against that... let me know and we can narrow down the specifics more.

I would love to see the kid beat the odds and prove my thinking wrong. I wouldn't be willing to bet any money on that though.

So we’d be bet on a proposition that is somewhat subjective, could potentially take years to resolve, and could be scuttled by injuries?

I’ll pass.

For the record, I’m not guaranteeing his (or any other prospect’s) success. So, in essence, your proposal is to bet on a straw man.

My point is that his race would not be a factor in deciding in whether or not I’d draft him.

That point is not something that is conducive to a wager.

 

[PARAM]

If in the last 3 years rates have increased to 70%... that certainly is a sign that the decision makers are improving the craft. But 70% isn't all that impressive when you consider the highest valued draft picks of all flake out 30% of the time. But I wasn't talking about the last 3 years, I was talking modern Era. I still believe some teams have 50% hit rates today or less on a consistent level, while better run teams have much higher rates. But again, I have always heard that 1st rounds picks have about a 50/50 hit rate. Hopefully it is improving as much as you say recently. With all the info at our fingertips today and the advancements in tech used... the hit rates certainly should be improving.

I did a "visual" check of the first three rounds then responded to you. Since, I've gone back to see the actual percentage......and of course, it's my opinion this was a hit, that a miss; yours may differ......but I count 21 of 32 in 2021, 26 of 32 in 2022 and 28 of 32 in 2023. That comes out to 78% (22% miss rate) and 84% the last 2 drafts. Still even if our opinions differ and it's 70% or 75%, that's a phenomenal hit rate. You're evaluating their talent, gauging their personality and predicting/projecting what you think they'll do in the NFL. So many variables involved including fit, and any one has a chance to go south. All that said, I believe 70% or 75% is freaking awesome. And as you say, some teams (5 or 6?) don't hit on 50% with their evaluations, ever, so that makes that 70-75% even better IMHO.

What is Snead's hit rate with first round picks (all with Fisher)? 4 of 7? 57%. I'd bet if they make first round picks the next few years, that will rise because it's McVay, not Fisher.

 

[Ramhusker]

Can we all agree that we should always try to draft Samoan players??????

 

[AvengerRam]

Can we all agree that we should always try to draft Samoan players??????

Only if they have Hawaiian and Portuguese ancestry as well.

 

[Selassie I]

Can we all agree that we should always try to draft Samoan players??????

Definitely "Uce"!

 

[Flatlyner]

I did a "visual" check of the first three rounds then responded to you. Since, I've gone back to see the actual percentage......and of course, it's my opinion this was a hit, that a miss; yours may differ......but I count 21 of 32 in 2021, 26 of 32 in 2022 and 28 of 32 in 2023. That comes out to 78% (22% miss rate) and 84% the last 2 drafts. Still even if our opinions differ and it's 70% or 75%, that's a phenomenal hit rate. You're evaluating their talent, gauging their personality and predicting/projecting what you think they'll do in the NFL. So many variables involved including fit, and any one has a chance to go south. All that said, I believe 70% or 75% is freaking awesome. And as you say, some teams (5 or 6?) don't hit on 50% with their evaluations, ever, so that makes that 70-75% even better IMHO.

What is Snead's hit rate with first round picks (all with Fisher)? 4 of 7? 57%. I'd bet if they make first round picks the next few years, that will rise because it's McVay, not Fisher.

I don't mean to rain on your percentages, but there was only 31 1st round picks in the 2023 draft, thanks to the Dolphins.

That does actually improve the hit rate however.

 

[muggmeister]

Thanks for allowing me to have an opinion.

You are the one choosing to ignore racial differences when it's convenient for you.

Let's get simple with the analytics... in its purest form. Count up the number of black CBs that are currently in the NFL and compare it to the number of white CBs in the NFL. Compare those numbers and see what the analytics say.

Just wow, you just can't stop can you? Keep digging your hole. Surprised you haven't been temporarily banned yet.

 

[dieterbrock]

If you want some painful reminders...

Go watch some Jason Sehorn highlights.

Wait, what?
Jason Sehorn was freakin awesome in his first couple of years for the Giants. After his knee was completely destroyed, he was never the same. Being white wasnt the reason he ended up the way he did, the stupid Ass Giants took care of that by having him return a kickoff in a meaningless pre-season game and turning his knee in to spaghetti

 

[Selassie I]

Wait, what?
Jason Sehorn was freakin awesome in his first couple of years for the Giants. After his knee was completely destroyed, he was never the same. Being white wasnt the reason he ended up the way he did, the stupid Ass Giants took care of that by having him return a kickoff in a meaningless pre-season game and turning his knee in to spaghetti

He was the last Caucasian starting NFL CB btw. There was one other who played CB some years back after Sehorn, but he wasn't a CB... he was forced to play CB in a game because of injuries.

There are zero Caucasian CBs in the NFL now and it's been that way for years. Most teams have a pretty big stable of CBs on the team too... like 6 or more. I guess all 32 teams are fucked in the head like me. LOL

I was waiting for anyone else to point that out. It wasn't though. Conveniently not pointed out would be my guess.

Sehorn was a freak of nature. Maybe Dejean will be the next one. But back to the question at hand... I would not use our first 1st round pick in years on this kid to play CB. The hips don't lie.

I'm out on this now.

 

[gogoat1]

If you want some painful reminders...

Go watch some Jason Sehorn highlights.

Wait, what about Brian Leonard ? He deserves some love.
He could play................................................ ?
Never mind.

 

[WestCoastRam]

No way Mitchell makes it to us but yes yes yes absolutely yes. I'm running away right now cause that's a steal.

 

[Billy Baroo]

Talk about bad memories.

 

[WestCoastRam]

Of the three CBs listed btw, I think it goes Mitchell, Wiggins (unless people really have an issue with his run defense), DeJean.

 

[WestCoastRam]

I loved what Nate Tice and Brugler (he's just okay as a draft guy) said about McCarthy. 2nd round QB. Gets a half-round bump cause of quarterback inflation. So that puts him in the back half of the 1st. Then, there are gonna be one or teams who fall in love which equates to a bump of 10 spots. So he's probably going right outside of the top ten.

And that's the NFL two step.

 

[bubbaramfan]

Sellasie I says "White men can't play CB". We all thought White men can't jump.

Then we saw the movie.