Ref for Rams@Saints: Sorry to be the bearer of terrible news

[ramsplaya16]

Law of averages! WE’RE DUE

 

[J R Football]

I see way too much concern about the officials being biased against the Rams.....bias does exist and as football fans we all see it, but seldom do we hear a peep when we get a call that appears to favor our team. The bias in officiating is very real and it appears to me to be directed at small market teams...like the Saints...versus large market teams. I do not see officials deciding this particular game....the big question is can the Saints patch up their defense to stop the Rams running game.

 

[1maGoh]

Law of averages! WE’RE DUE

That's not how that works. We get boned, Patriots get all the calls their way, law of averages satisfied.

 

[Prime Time]

bias does exist and as football fans we all see it

The bias in officiating is very real

I see way too much concern about the officials being biased against the Rams

Which one is it? Either bias by NFL refs exists or it doesn't and if it does then Rams fans should be concerned.

As we all know football is a game that can be decided by a single penalty. A penalty at the wrong time can suck all the momentum out of a drive. It can be the difference between a win or a loss.

I can tell you that research has shown that refs tend to call more in favor of home teams rather than visiting teams due to pressure from the crowds.

Here's an interesting analysis:

https://wtop.com/nfl/2017/01/whose-side-nfl-referees-make-big-difference/

An analysis by the statistics site 538 found that, while noise from the home crowd is thought to influence officials’ calls and non-calls, the side of the field a play flows toward may be a far more important factor.

Authors Noah Davis and Michael Lopez analyzed every regular-season play between 2010 and 2014 and found that defensive pass interference, and other aggressive penalties such as personal fouls, unsportsmanlike conduct and horse-collar tackles, were called significantly more often when plays were run toward the side of the field housing the offensive bench than the defense’s.

Conversely, on running plays, offensive holding penalties were called more frequently on plays run toward the defensive bench’s side of the field.

The hypothesis is simple — an official has more players and coaches screaming for a call on one side of the field or another — and the numbers hold that up: The difference was even more stark when the play happened between the 32-yard lines — the bench area where players and coaches are allowed to congregate. When the action was closer to one of the goal lines, without players and coaches offering — um, advice, the difference was less noticeable, and in some cases reversed.

The numbers cut against the referees’ self-perception as unflappable straight shooters — Davis told WTOP he spoke with a prominent former NFL referee who had officiated three Super Bowls who “just refused to believe the numbers we have were true” — but they’re hard to deny.

“The differences in the penalty rates from sideline to sideline are several times larger than the differences in penalty rates between the home and away teams,” the authors write.

Davis and Lopez write that the effect is called “cue learning” — it’s why, for example, people laugh longer when other people are laughing, and why we eat more when we’re around overweight people.

Officials have to make snap judgments at high speed and without replay, so it’s harder to get it right than it is for those sitting and watching in the stands or on TV and leaves officials open to the kind of influence Davis and Lopez found, Davis said.

“I’m amazed refs get calls right as often as they do,” Davis told WTOP — although, as he acknowledged, their numbers reflect not only what gets called but what doesn’t.

The crowd-noise factor is still real, and happens in other sports: The authors cite a German study in which soccer referees watched videos of borderline plays accompanied by varying levels of crowd noise, which found that “referee decisions are strongly influenced by crowd noise” and that home-field advantage is real.

And there’s not much to do about such subconscious bias if it isn’t at least acknowledged.
------------------------------------------
Here's one targeting Bill Vinovich:

https://in-thinair.com/2017/10/27/bias-in-nfl-referees/

While football fans have always been quick to see errors by the officiating crews, recently there has been a much more serious tone. Fans in Denver are upset about Bill Vinovich’s officiating in Bronco games, and Eagles fans are incensed with Pete Morelli. Eagles fans point to the horrible penalty disparity, while Broncos fans point to an anomalous win/loss ratio. The fan bases feel betrayed by the officials.

A few years ago when the rumors about Vinovich dressing in drag Chargers apparel first appeared, I took the opportunity to look for apparent bias. With limited data, I found that there was a statistically significant difference between the Broncos’ win-loss records when Vinovich was refereeing versus other referees. This time I decided to cast a wider net at the league-wide conspiracy and look at all teams and a bigger selection of referees.

I extracted the win-loss records for all teams from Pro Football Reference. I also discovered PFR has a list of every official for every game. Using this list, I was able to derive the win-loss record for every team when a particular official was the referee. I then computed the differential between the team’s overall winning percentage and the winning percentage with a particular referee. For the referees, I chose seven official with service as referees between 2012 and present: Bill Vinovich, Ed Hochuli, Walt Anderson, Pete Morelli, Tony Corrente, Jeff Triplette, and Walt Anderson.

Looking at specific referees, it is clear that Broncos fans have reason to hate it when Bill Vinovich referees their game. In five years seasons, he has called seven Broncos games, of which the Broncos have won exactly one. For a team with an overall winning percentage of 73% in the past five years (second only to New England’s 77%), a 14% winning rate is pretty noticeable, and the 59% deviation between Vinovich and the Broncos is the highest of all combinations.

There are other teams on the Vinovich-hate-train as well: the poor Rams are 0-5 when Vinovich is around, while the Dolphins are 1-5. These teams significantly underperform around Vinovich.

On the other hand, there are teams that are happy to see Vinovich. The Lions, Steelers, and Buccaneers have all performed significantly better than expected. The Steelers always win with Vinovich, while the Buccaneers are 5-1 for an 83% win rate compared to their normal 35% win rate.

The other referees also have similar patterns, and all except Morelli show a significant bias for or against a few teams. So we have found some individual bias, but individual referees seem to like different teams.

It is pretty clear there is no league-wide conspiracy at work here. It makes little sense for the league to mandate outcomes. There is a lot of money flowing into the NFL coffers without needing to fudge the results. Plus, in this case I will indulge in an argument from incredulity since I cannot imagine any way the owners would ever agree to such a thing, or would be able to keep it quiet.

However, individual bias is clearly shown by the numbers. While possible, it is statistically improbable that Denver simply has a bad football day with Vinovich by coincidence. It is much more likely that Vinovich is either consciously or subconsciously influencing the outcome from his position of power.

The obvious question is why? What motivation would he have to consciously screw up a game for the Broncos? I can offer possibilities ranging from point-shaving (a lot of money gets lost when the heavy favorite loses) to a straight-up dislike for the Broncos.

The complexity of human behavior defies an easy external answer from me. All I can say is the evidence exists, and until the NFLRA and the NFL admit there might be a problem with bias or show they have bias under control, the fans will continue to speculate.

 

[bluecoconuts]

Well, we're boned. Both games he officiated this year were losses with bad missed calls.

It was a good year, maybe we can make enough stink after he screws us and get him to fuck off forever like Trippleshit and the Chiefs.

Someone get ESPNLA to pick up the story, Mason and Ireland love these types of stories, if they get word they'll point it out.

 

[jacktheripper85]

On the other hand, there are teams that are happy to see Vinovich. The Lions, Steelers, and Buccaneers have all performed significantly better than expected. The Steelers always win with Vinovich, while the Buccaneers are 5-1 for an 83% win rate compared to their normal 35% win rate.


The Steelers always win with Vinovich? Wasn’t this guy born in Pennsylvania? Hmmm.

 

[KJD_Ram]

the poor Rams are 0-5 when Vinovich is around.....

now it's 0-8, since that article is a year old...

 

[Prime Time]

The Steelers always win with Vinovich? Wasn’t this guy born in Pennsylvania? Hmmm.

He was born in Beaver County, Pennsylvania. His family moved to California. He played football through four years of college, transitioning to officiating upon his magna cum laude graduation in 1983 from the University of San Diego.

 

[Ewe83]

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/Article/Saints-Rams-NFC-title-game-referee--127837493/


With how many games in recent years have been affected by penalties, real or imagined, it’s always a good idea to get a heads up on who will be officiating the Saints’ games.

Especially as the team finds itself one step away from the Super Bowl, hosting the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday from the Superdome.

This week, it will be Bill Vinovich and his crew that will work the field in New Orleans, the National Football League announced ahead of their annual Championship Sunday.

Sunday will find Vinovich working his 12th career postseason assignment and his fourth total conference championship contest. In his career since joining the league in 2001, he has officiated three Wild Card Round games, four Divisional Round contests, and one Super Bowl game.

The California native worked Super Bowl XLIX between New England and Seattle on Feb. 1, 2015.

The Saints are 10-5 in games in which Vinovich has been an official since 2001, and 8-4 all time in games that Vinovich has served as the head referee.

He was most recently in New Orleans for their Week 17 regular season finale against the Carolina Panthers, their third loss of the year in which Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara were inactive.

Before then, the Saints went 3-0 in the three previous games Vinovich officiated, dating back to Week 3 of the 2017 season, their first win of that year and first of eight consecutive victories, at Carolina. He then worked New Orleans’ 20 point Week 9 victory over Tampa Bay on Nov. 5, 2017.

Saints fans may recall that Vinovich led the crew on the field for the team’s Week 9 home game against the Los Angeles Rams on Nov. 4, setting a tone of familiarity for the rematch between the two NFC contenders in this crucial meeting.

The last time the Saints and Rams met, Vinovich’s crew called two penalties on New Orleans and four on Los Angeles. In his other Saints game of the season, Carolina was flagged just twice compared to New Orleans’ six infractions.

Vinovich and his crew have called an average of 11.19 penalties per game this season, and home teams win games in which he officiated exactly 50 percent of the time.

The Saints played in nine home games and three on the road with Vinovich on the field, going 3-0 on the road and 5-4 at home.

In those dozen games as referee, Vinovich’s crews have been even, calling 61 penalties against the Saints, or 5.1 flags per game, and 64 against their opponents, or 5.3 per game.

New Orleans has lost 45.3 penalty yards per game compared to 41.5 penalty yards per game for their opponents with Vinovich involved. The Saints are averaging exactly four more points per game than their opponents in games with Vinovich as the referee.

His crew consists of umpire Bruce Stritesky, down judge Phil McKinnely, line judge Mark Perlman, field judge Mearl Robinson, side judge Gary Cavaletto, and back judge Steve Patrick.

New Orleans defeated Los Angeles, 45-35, on Nov. 4 in a battle between two undefeated teams. After their meeting, only one remained. Now, both will play for a berth in Super Bowl LIII.

In November, the Drew Brees and the offense scored on five of their first six possessions, building up an impressive 35-17 halftime lead and held on in the second half to finish with a win.

Michael Thomas made headlines that day by scoring a 72 yard touchdown from Brees and celebrating with a phone he hid underneath the goal post in a tribute to Joe Horn.

The win was the Saints’ seventh straight, and they eventually won 10 in a row. Doubtless many in New Orleans are eager to get a glimpse at a rematch for a shot at the Super Bowl.

Start the Conversation
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[RamFan503]

Good grief you guys complain about every ref in the NFL. Every week.

Is it ever going to stop?

I don't recall many if anyone complaining about the last crew before the game. I could be wrong.

 

[RamFan503]

I understand your anger, but the noise isn’t piped in. We get drunk a day or two in advance, and come ready to get loud. There is nothing artificial about the noise.

Cheers to dat.

 

[Prime Time]

Here's an interview Peter "Can't get enough of Tom Brady" King did with Bill Vinovich in January of 2015.
**********************************************************************
https://www.si.com/2015/01/26/super-bowl-49-patriots-seahawks-bill-vinovich-ref

A Super Bowl Comeback
By Peter King

George Gojkovich/Getty Images

Bill Vinovich, a certified public accountant in his other life, was a week clear of tax season in late April 2007, and now it was time to focus on his real passion, being an NFL referee. He was about to enter his fourth season as a ref, after three as an NFL side judge and back judge. Vinovich went to work out one day near his southern California home, and when he came home, his back was killing him.

“It actually felt like somebody stuck two knives in my back," Vinovich said from California the other day. At the hospital his blood pressure skyrocketed. The CAT scan stunned the doctors: He had suffered an “aortic dissection”—a dangerous tear in the interior wall of the descending aorta, the large artery that carries blood from the heart down through the chest. The tear causes blood to pool between the internal and external walls of the aorta.

"They said it was inoperable," Vinovich said. “I heard them say, ‘The next 48 hours will tell if he’s gonna make it or not.’ ”

They meant, The next 48 hours would determine whether Vinovich would live.

Later, Vinovich was told the survival rate for those who suffered a dissection as severe as his was about 2 percent.

But he made it. “A freak thing," Vinovich called his survival. To him, that’s hardly the headline of this story. After 11 days in intensive care and a few weeks of in-home rest, Vinovich felt good, and he sent all his medical records to the NFL so he could be cleared to officiate the season. League physician Dr. Jeffrey Borer, whose job it is to clear officials for duty, not only wouldn’t clear Vinovich for the season. “They said they weren’t going to allow me on the field anymore," Vinovich said. “Ever.”

Vinovich started to cry. “A surreal moment," he recalled. “You know, for me, that’s taking away a good portion of my being."

"How long did it take you to come to grips with that?” I asked.

"Never,’’ he said. “I never gave up.”

The NFL sent Vinovich a big severance check. That was his gold watch, basically. Thanks for the three great years; good luck, and maybe you can be a replay official, or a supervisor in the office, reviewing other officials’ work. He never cashed the check. He mailed it back. That would be giving in, he thought.

Mike Pereira, the vice president of officiating at the time, told Vinovich he wanted him around the department for the next 15 years, and Vinovich chose to be a replay official on Ed Hochuli’s crew in 2007. As if that job has no stress. Vinovich says he actually felt doing replay work was more stressful, given the time crunch and the close calls, than being on the field.

In 2008, he became a regional supervisor, watching and grading officials. He applied for Pereira’s job when Pereira quit after the 2009 season, but Carl Johnson got it. If Vinovich had succeeded Pereira he probably never would have returned to the field. He decided to continue as a supervisor, but to go back to his other officiating love—college basketball. Vinovich felt great. He started visiting cardiologists and thoracic surgeons around the country, in Atlanta, Los Angeles, Boston, Houston. He was getting the itch to prove he could be a ref again.

Vinovich got four thoracic surgeons to write to the NFL in 2010, saying he was healthy enough to officiate a football game. He took the NFL physical. Borer still said no. Too risky. “It was like pounding your head against a wall," Vinovich said. “I’ve got all the information. I just couldn’t get through that wall."

In 2011, Vinovich persisted, asking Borer what more he could do to get back on the field. He was told if a trusted thoracic surgeon, Dr. John Elefteriades, a cardiothoracic surgeon at Yale, passed him, the NFL likely would let him back on the field. So Vinovich went to New Haven, Conn., and met with Elefteriades. The doctor told him his descending aorta wasn’t a concern, but the ascending aorta had an aneurysm, a ballooning of the artery.

Before he’d pass Vinovich, surgery on the other end of the aorta would be necessary. Vinovich said, “He basically told me, ‘If everything goes well, I do not see a reason why you would not be able to go back on the field. But this is a major surgery—I don’t want you saying yes or no just so you can get back out on the field. Think about it. Call me back in a week.’ ”

Did you think Vinovich was going to tell him: I’ve decided not to do the surgery? Hardly. Doctors replaced his ascending aorta with a synthetic mesh that is quite literally bulletproof. Six months later he was back on the basketball court, reffing games on the West Coast. Early in 2012 he re-applied to the NFL, with Elefteriades’ blessing. In May 2012, he opened his email one day to find these words from the NFL: You’re approved for the 2012 season. “I obviously started crying," Vinovich said. “Very, very emotional."

Now, over the phone, he was emotional again.

“Just a long fight back. It was just one of those… I can’t even explain it."

Vinovich was good enough that first year to to officiate the Baltimore-Denver double-overtime divisional game and serve as the Super Bowl alternate referee. But he was just getting his officiating legs back, and that continued last year. This season the game that may have made the difference in the Super Bowl assignment came in Week 9, at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, on a Sunday night.

Ravens versus Steelers. A heated and physical rivalry game. In the middle of the third quarter, then-Steeler LaGarrette Blount was stood up at the line on a running play, and Terrell Suggs of the Ravens came in with a cheap shot at the end, diving at Blount’s knees. Suggs got 15 yards for unnecessary roughness, and the game got incredibly chippy. Scrums everywhere. Two plays later Baltimore’s Elvis Dumervil got 15 for roughness.

“Suggs goes in and hits that guy low, and now Pittsburgh is going after Suggs," Vinovich said. “We’re gonna end up with a fight. Then we just flagged [Dumervil]. So we had two or three 15-yard penalties in a row. I basically just said, I’ve had enough. I said, ‘My timeout.’ I just shut the thing down. I went over to [Baltimore coach John] Harbaugh and let him vent. Then I said, ‘I’ve heard enough.

We’re gonna start throwing people out on the next 15-yard penalty. We aren’t gonna have a major brawl out here.’ I went over to [Pittsburgh coach Mike] Tomlin next, and he vented the same way. It was just like a baseball guy going to both dugouts saying, ‘Next pitch that’s high and tight, they’re gonna be gone.’ I told Suggs to get control of his guys. I told both huddles to knock this stuff off. I said we weren’t gonna have it. And it calmed down for the rest of the game."

Maybe the decision on which ref would get the Super Bowl had been made on the weekend of the divisional playoffs. Maybe not. But the system dictates that the Super Bowl ref comes out of that weekend. The four: Vinovich, Terry McAulay, Bill Leavy and Gene Steratore.

Vinovich had Baltimore-New England. In the middle of the third quarter, the bizarre New England formation occurred: Tight end Michael Hoomanawanui lined up at left tackle, eligible. Running back Shane Vereen reported on the field and said clearly to Vinovich: “I’m reporting INeligible. INeligible.”

“It obviously caught me off guard," Vinovich said. “I’m not gonna say what the Ravens should or shouldn’t have done. I mean, the easiest thing [for them] to do would have been to call timeout and let them match up. Basically it was just a brilliant play on Bill Belichick’s part and it caught them off guard. That’s why you have to be able to think quickly. Not only did I say he’s not eligible, I said, ‘Do not cover 34 [Vereen].’

But the DBs were obviously confused. What’s going through my mind is, Can he do this legally? Was Vereen in the previous play? All these different things start going through my mind. Then I realize that going from eligible to ineligible, you don’t have to be out one play before. The other way, coming back ineligible to eligible, you have to be out of play.

Now he can’t go back to eligible without going out for a play, which he did. Some of the stuff they throw at you, you just go, whoa. That’s the great part of officiating—it’s always changing. Someone’s gonna think of something different to do. But the play was legal, totally legal.”

Vinovich is aware that some critics—Harbaugh, for one, who thinks the Ravens weren't given sufficient time to match up; and also Tony Dungy, who felt the same way—didn’t like New England being able to use that play. But he also knows on those three plays, the Ravens had at least seven seconds per play to adjust. So he’s sure he made the right call. “I don’t know how else we could have handled that," he said. “You’re not going to put the umpire over the ball at that point. We told the Ravens the back was ineligible.”

Vinovich's boss liked the way the play was called. "I thought he handled it very well," NFL vice president of officiating Dean Blandino said. "He was calm, he was smooth, he was in control. That's what you want an official to be in that circumstance."

A couple of weeks ago the phone rang in Vinovich’s home. It was Blandino.

"I’ve got a couple of games left," Blandino said, “and I want to know if you want to officiate the last one.”

Vinovich said, “I want the beach volleyball game. To hell with the Super Bowl.”

Then Vinovich said, “Are you kidding?”

"Yeah I’m serious," Blandino said. “You had a great season and you controlled all your games. We’re happy to have you do the game."

Vinovich just sat for a while, silent, reflecting on not just the past two years, but the five years off the field before that. “If I didn’t stick with it," he said, “I would not have been fulfilled. I was taken off the field before my time.’’

"Has it hit you that you’re doing the Super Bowl," I asked, “just three years after you didn’t know if you’d ever be allowed on the field again?”

"No," he said, “and I don’t think it will until I do the coin toss, honestly. I just want to get that over with, because then it’s just football."

Vinovich doesn’t have the field persona of Ed Hochuli or Gene Steratore. He’s economical with his words, and about as vanilla a guy doing a game as you’ll find. Maybe he’ll have some spicy words for a Terrell Suggs to get his attention. But they won’t be over an open mike.

"No one’s coming to see an official officiate," Vinovich said. “Trust me."

They might be in this Super Bowl, to see a pretty good comeback story. “It’s magnificent," said Pereira. “It’s an unbelievable story of perseverance. He’s an official. He’s an official’s official. The five years off was a rest stop. The significant odds he overcame—this is just one of the great Super Bowl stories.”

 

[Ewe83]

If only they had stuck by never letting him back :banghead: