Rams' predictability out of shotgun is becoming a huge flaw

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Riverumbbq

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Cameron DaSilva

2 hours ago


For two years, Sean McVay was one of the toughest coaches to figure out. His offense was dynamic and difficult to stop, helping elevate the play of everyone from Todd Gurley to Robert Woods to Jared Goff.
The basis of his offense is utilizing 11 personnel, pre-snap motion and play-action passes to deceive the defense. After all, common says having the same 11 players on the field for nearly every play makes it difficult to predict whether it’s a pass or run coming.

For two years, his scheme worked to perfection. This season has not been so kind to McVay with many suggesting he’s been exposed by opposing defenses. To an extent, that assessment isn’t necessarily wrong. But at the same time, the offensive line is decimated and Goff has regressed as a result.
But if there’s one thing McVay can control, it’s tendencies and tells. One in particular sticks out like a sore thumb when you watch the Rams play – and it’s probably something you’ve noticed yourself.
The Rams never run the ball out of shotgun formations.
According to Inside Edge, running backs have only gotten 12 carries out of the gun this year, picking up 45 yards on such plays. Both numbers are the lowest in the NFL by a wide margin. When the Rams go into shotgun formations, they throw the ball 96% of the time, according to Sharp Football Stats. Of course, that’s the widest differential in the league, with the next-closest team being the Buccaneers (91% pass).
When under center, the Rams are more balanced. They throw the ball 35% of the time (8th-highest) and run it 65% (25th). That’s why they’re able to run play-action fakes when the running back is lined up behind Goff, because there’s actually a threat to run the ball.
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Sharp Football Stats
Out of the gun, the Rams don’t even bother trying with ball fakes. You almost never see Goff fake the handoff to Gurley when the two are lined up side by side. That’s because Gurley has only carried it eight times out of the shotgun for a measly 17 yards. Where’s the threat defenses have to account for?
Against the Steelers on Sunday afternoon, this tendency was on full display in the fourth quarter. On their last two drives, the Rams were in shotgun on every single play. Even with all three timeouts and nearly three minutes on the clock during their first drive, there was never a threat to run the ball by Los Angeles. No fake handoffs, no under-center plays, no play action. This tendency is so glaringly obvious that the Steelers almost certainly picked up on it coming into the game and knew that when the Rams were in shotgun, there was almost no chance they were going to run the ball.
As a result, they pinned their ears back and rushed Goff every time he was in the gun. This might seem obvious late in the game, and it is. Down five points, most teams are going to be airing the ball out. The Rams didn’t have to with three timeouts, but that’s the strategy they opted for.
This is the play just before the two-minute warning – a situation where running the ball is absolutely an option. Look how quickly the Steelers’ edge rushers get up the field, knowing there’s no chance the Rams are going to hand it off.

Clearly, gaining 3.8 yards per carry on rush attempts out of the gun doesn’t inspire much confidence. However, the fact that they’re not even trying to run it out of that formation is allowing defenses to know what’s coming. This wasn’t as big of a deal last season when teams were still trying to figure out McVay’s offense, but the Rams rarely ran it out of shotgun then, either.
They threw it 96% of the time out of the gun and ran it just 4% of the time. In 2017, the gap was closer: 87% run, 13% pass. With a full year of tape from last season to watch, and that tendency standing out so clearly, defenses have likely figured out what’s coming when Goff is in the gun – and McVay has yet to adjust.
It doesn’t help that the Rams have been in the shotgun more often this year than they were last year. In 2018, they used shotgun 38% of the time compared to 46% of the time this season. The more they use shotgun formations, the more predictable the offense gets.
Goff came from an Air Raid offense in college and lived in the shotgun at Cal. McVay has catered the offense to his skill set the last three years, giving him far more pass attempts out of the gun than under center since 2017. It also fits with what Gurley does best, running it from traditional singleback formations.
As bad as Gurley has been out of the gun in his career, the Rams do have a guy with a skill set that can have some success in those situations: Darrell Henderson. With Gurley seeing his workload limited, the Rams should take advantage of Henderson and hand him the ball out of the gun. At least that will keep the defense on its toes, rather than allowing edge rushers to pin their ears back and get after the QB.
Or what about a run-pass option (RPO)? The Eagles used that heavily on their march to the Super Bowl a few years ago. It’s an easy way to limit the effectiveness of a team’s pass rush, causing the defensive linemen to freeze for a second to read the play. Running RPOs with Goff and Henderson could be a nice wrinkle to the offense.
No matter what the solution is, McVay has to at least bring some unpredictability into the equation when the Rams line up in the gun. With no threat to run the ball, defenses are hardly ever fooled and pass rushers are teeing off on Goff. With a makeshift offensive line, that’s a disastrous combination.

 

Merlin

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Yeah and again it comes back to not running well and being behind the chains on most third downs.

McVay basically has to pass in those shotgun situations. Them having a tendency is the end result of earlier down futility.

Which comes back to the OL. Nobody is a genius without an OL.
 

Oregonram

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Thank you for your post, and your work on getting these numbers. I’m not quibbling with your numbers, but if it’s that obvious with the facts, then certainly Sean has to know. Something just feels off with this team, and it unfortunately starts with Sean. The only way that Sean is not responsible for this glaring tell, would be if Goff is audibling out of Sean’s calls and running his own plays. We are not seeing the whole picture, there is something behind the curtain that we are not discerning. I think I saw somewhere where Sean admitted not using Gurley enough in the Steelers game...the 15th time he’s admitted to it. Maybe time for an OC?
 

Florida_Ram

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Some good points and examples in this article that many on this board have been shedding light on this since late last year and during the 2019 season.

McVay has more than enough film to self scout his own offensive philosophies. The tweaks he's been making thus far are not compensating the O-Line deficiencies or disguising his scheme foundation and tendencies.

I believe a solid O-Line would have this team sitting at 7-2 but I can't just blame the O-Line for the 5-4 record.

We all know that McVay and Goff have underachieved mostly because of the O-Line but the game plans and slow first half starts are a lot to do with the several examples this forum has discussed as well as what the article focuses on.

I get it that if the O-Line is absolutely horrible the last 7 games it may not give us a fair evaluation of McVay's ability to adjust and change but....

these last 7 games will be a measuring stick of how much our young coach has learned and how much he's willing or able to change on the fly the way the NFL demands year in and year out.

McVay always mentions the flow of the game and other things that take away game plan concepts. Even when the O-Line is playing decent, visually the play calling seems to be out of sync.


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XXXIVwin

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Yup, just run more out of shotgun formation, and problem solved!

Sorry, I just don’t put much stock in a simplistic “analysis” like this. McVay and his coaches grind away with countless hours of film study and self-scouting.

Yes, I suspect that the NFL has caught up to McVay to a certain extent, and I hope he can stay ahead of the curve. But HOW he should do that is a helluva lot more complicated than “oh I noticed this trend out of shotgun.” Gimme a break.
 

gogoat1

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truth. While you are at it I would like to see some "I" formations for Todd. Let him get a head start at it with a fullback in front. Think of all the passing options a guy like McVay could invent with a good fullback.
The whole offense is too predictable.
And I would like to see those stupid "quick outs" to a WR. They seldom work and when the go bad, they can be a disaster.
 

coconut

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Yup, just run more out of shotgun formation, and problem solved!

Sorry, I just don’t put much stock in a simplistic “analysis” like this. McVay and his coaches grind away with countless hours of film study and self-scouting.

Yes, I suspect that the NFL has caught up to McVay to a certain extent, and I hope he can stay ahead of the curve. But HOW he should do that is a helluva lot more complicated than “oh I noticed this trend out of shotgun.” Gimme a break.
The OP topic was about predictability. The same issue the Patriots used to stifle the Rams offense in the super bowl. Perhaps more film study of his play calling would do McVay good? Running out of the shotgun is but one. Probably others exist or are in the works. Better the Rams find it out before another opponent does.
 

Mojo Ram

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I don't fault the Rams for the OLine as much. They believed the Saffold/Sully to Boom/Allen transition would work. I keep thinking....many of these other things we've discussed like tweaking the offense in ways like varying the formations and bringing new ways to attack defenses etc...should have started in the offseason and been a focus in training camp.

The PA offense run thru 11 personnel thing had already started to run its course late season IMO. I'm just a bit disappointed that McV didn't appear to get ahead of this before the season started.

Trying to drastically change what we do on offense isn't easy mid season.
 

ProGen

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Surely McVay is aware of this? And surely it is due to limitations in talent, and not purely his personal desire/stubbornness on how he wants to run the offense?

I echo gogoat1, I'd love to see a versatile fullback on this team that McVay could utilise to add oomph to the run game, and to keep teams on their toes a little in the pass game.

Just saw Mojos post above. He is right - it is not easy to make big changes at this stage of the season. Essentially (without sounding defeatist), this season is a big lesson for next year.
 

OregonRamsFan

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McVay seems distracted and behind the curve to me this year. He’s getting married soon. Hmmm...
 

LesBaker

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Sorry, I just don’t put much stock in a simplistic “analysis” like this. McVay and his coaches grind away with countless hours of film study and self-scouting.


Facts are facts and this is not a simplistic analysis. This is based on nearly 600 plays and it's a complete breakdown of when the Rams run and when they pass.

McVay has become predictable and even one of the Patriots said it after the SB. He said they knew, based on which TE was in the game, that the play was going to be a run or a pass.

Plenty of us have been talking about this. I posted the other day that if I can guess what's coming much of the time then the opposing team can too.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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Maybe the porous OLine play has them so concerned that they don't want to risk Gurley missing a block.
 

Zodi

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I run inside zone from shotgun in Madden all the time. Works for me. McVay should learn.