Well these last few pages have truly been eye opening 
Rams: (#13) 1st Round QB Ty Simpson SIGNED
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I don't think your list proves your thesis. All of those QBs you listed were drafted with the expectation that they'd become great starters for their teams. When the Jags drafted Blaine Gabbert, for example, they thought he'd be elite. He was a big guy, crazy smart and could run. They didn't know they were getting a backup QB. If Ty Simpson ends up becoming the next Christian Ponder, it could end up being a huge mistake for the Rams to have drafted him.
A team should never draft a QB in the top 15 with moderate expectations. IMO, there is no such thing. If you go QB that early, that guy has to be a franchise QB. Doesn't have to be one of the 5 best QBs in the NFL, but he has to be a good starter. It is okay if we have a Joe Flacco type debate where the Rams win the SB with Simpson, but some people still think that Simpson is overrated and not an elite QB and is massively overpaid with a rich contract. That's fine, I don't care what critics might say if we got there, it'd be a good "problem" to have with another trophy.
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The point I was making had nothing to do with team expectations.
My focus was fan expectations and the QB talent typically available at those spots in the draft.
Of course it proves his thesis. His list clearly shows that a top 10 to 15 pick rarely buys you an elite QB. The odds look to be 1 out of 12 (Mahomes) which equates to 8.33%. Maybe you missed the thesis?
So was Simpson. At 10 to 15, you take a chance on a guy you think you can mold into a franchise QB. The list shows that it doesn't work most of the time.
And yet, as we've seen from the list of the last 25 years, you only get a franchise guy once or twice out of 12.
What you're describing are top 5 picks, and even those miss at a high rate.
I"ll take Ty at 13 over:
Bryce Young at 1
Jameis Winston at 1
Marcus Mariota at 2
Daniel Jones at 6
Dwayne Haskins at 8
Kyler Murray at 1
Tua Tagovailoa at 5
Zach Wilson at 2
Trey Lance at 3
Justin Fields at 8? 10?
Mac Jones at 15
Kenny Pickett at 18
J.J. McCarthy at 10
Michael Penix at 8
Those are just the OBVIOUS ones.
Personally, Id also take Ty Simpson at 13 over:
C.J. Stroud at 3
Jayden Daniels at 2
Any list of QBs drafted anywhere in the first shows that it rarely buys you an elite QB. But rounds 2 through 7 buy you even less. In fact, you have to get extremely lucky in the first and powerball lucky from the 2nd through the 7th.
Hmmm - I wouldn't have pick any of the above QBs in the first round. Wasn't impressed with any of them.
People throw elite around like that adjective is easy to give to QB's. How many truly elite QB's are there in the NFL? Maybe 3 or 4? And that's with players drafted and playing now going back to Stafford's draft you could throw Rodgers in there to in the past. Say 5 elite QB's drafted in the last 25 years and only 2 of those drafted in the top 5 picks?
How would you get a QB then? Which QBs have you been impressed with in the last decade?
Stafford was drafted #1 in 2009. The next guy drafted was taken #5 and he just went to court for assaulting a truck driver, who stabbed him. So finding a franchise QB isn't easy. Stafford is impressive, considering he didn't get "ruined" by going to a shitty team. And the Lions were a shitty team.
If I were to list the "franchise QBs" from 2009 on, it'd look like this.
Stafford*
Luck*
Goff*
Mahomes
Allen
Lamar
Burrow*
Herbert
Love
Lawrence*
Maye
Caleb*
I'd also include Darnold and Mayfield but it took going to another franchise to achieve "franchise" status. So including those two would bring the FQB total to 14, with 7 of them coming as the #1 overall pick. There have been as many or more from that draft slot who've failed over that span. It's hard to find a franchise QB. My theory is if you're looking for a franchise QB, you better get him in the first round. Even then you need a stable franchise, with developmental skills.
Good list. 9 of those 12 were top 5 picks. Still, from what I recall, the fail rate of top 5 picks is damn near 50%.
People just love to complain, as if the Stafford succession plan is a piece-of-cake that they could have handled better. They will just wave their magic wand and insert Arch Manning or the sort into their next Drafted Franchise Quarterback slot. As if that is feasible. I say Snead has handled it well above average-ly up to this point, and that the Myles Garrett acquisition is a by-product of the Simpson selection to boot.
That's because 90% of the time, QBs are drafted by need. And it's a catch-22. A shitty team needs a good QB but once a good QB goes to a shitty team, there's a better than 50% chance, he's gonna end up shitty too. Which makes Matt Stafford all that more impressive. The Lions were 31-97 the 8 years previous to drafting Stafford (an average of 4-12), culminating with 0-16 in 2008. In year 3 with Stafford they were in the postseason. That's fucking impressive.
Stafford has spent 29.4% of his career with McVay and yet, he has exactly half the TD passes he had with Detroit. (141/282). 74-90-1 with Detroit, 46-28 with the Rams. 0-3 in the postseason with the Lions, 7-3 with the Rams. Clearly, a shitty franchise can hold down a HOF QB. And if it can do that with somebody like Stafford, is it really surprising the percentage of successful 1st round QBs is less than 50%?
I know we're all telling each other "temper your excitement" about Ty Simpson, he's not going to be Matt Stafford. But at some point don't we know because we've seen it, a QB nurtured along slowly by experts in the field, stands a better chance than somebody thrown to the wolves because of need?
The Rams are doing EVERTYTHING right and though that doesn't guarantee Simpson a seat at the franchise QB table, it sure as hell gives him a better chance than a QB going to Cleveland. Or Las Vegas. Or Atlanta. Or Tennessee. Etc. This kid has "it" from the neck up. He's got physical skills too. (Accuracy, mobility, etc). And he's got one of the best offensive minds in the history of the game behind him. I like his chances.
Right!? Before the Simpson selection, I was asking those who weren't in favor of drafting him what their plan would be to get a potential franchise QB. There were literally no good options presented. I think the best plan was 'hope and pray' - hope that someone good falls to the 30th range in the 2027 draft.
Sneakin suspicion (not so sneakin) that Simpson with McVay is going to be a real...hit.
Many physically talented quarterbacks have become busts. Superior physical talent doesn't guarantee success as an NFL quarterback. It's the complete package: high-level mental processing, work ethic and physical abilities.
1 Arm Strength- often overrated: Simpson is considered above average and surprised at his pro day.
According to ESPN's Jordan Reid, "multiple scouts in attendance came away impressed with how the ball came off Simpson's hand" at his pro day on Wednesday.
"I thought his arm was a little above average on tape, but it's much stronger than I anticipated after seeing him up close," said an NFC executive.
2. Mobility: I have been impressed with his ability to make throws on the move and reset on bootlegs. He has shown quality functional speed and quickness to extend plays and run when needed. This fits perfectly with McVay's scheme.
3. High-level mental processing: He spent time with McVay before the draft. McVay needs/wants a quarterback who understands his concepts and will work on improving. Obviously, McVay came out of his meeting impressed with Simpson's mental ability. He is the son of a football coach who has been around the game forever.
At some point, the Rams have to decide on Stafford's successor. Considering their current winning ways under McVay and Snead, they may not have another opportunity equal to or better than Ty Simpson in the future.
He's short and 10-20 lbs below where we would like him. Of course, if he had those things, would he have been available at 13? There's the conundrum.
I understand the "draft value" argument and so forth, but that is better used as framework and not a rigid formula to follow. So fucking what if he was drafted a little higher than he was rated? I'll worry when somebody shows me data that says, the rating system is never wrong. Infalable. Precisely accurate with where these kids should come of the board.
You list his attributes and fine comments from NFL execs. Very encouraging. I saw the kid in college and I saw the kid in preseason. There's more to like than there isn't. What flips the switch for me is the fact McVay liked him. If it turns out he starts for McVay and the Rams, this will be the second QB he's hand picked. And the second he's developed. The first to both be handpicked and developed.
Especially when it's Ty Simpson getting a year or two of redshirting under the tutelage of the best offensive mind in the game and behind a QB who is the reigning MVP and a future HOFer.