Question for the Watkins and Tavon advocates...

[KayJay]

Adding to what I said earlier. I actually like Watkins. I am just not sure there aren't better ways to spend the money he might be offered as a free agent. Woods is a 1-2 type receiver. I love Kupp but do wonder how durable he will be.
Receiver generally is one of the easiest positions to find.

If Goff is as good as we think he is he shouldn't need great receivers. TB12 has won without high priced receivers. Goff should be able to as well.

As a Tom Brady fan, allow me to shed some light on your last comment about not needing high priced WR's.

Tom Terrific virtually has one of the greatest coaches in football, an elite offensive line, and stud of a tight end every year. Football is a team game, and at the end of the day a team will almost always be the sum of its parts. Aaron Donald comes first, then Joyner, and Watkins next. But Watkins is equally as important in terms of this wide receiving core. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL if not the best; and even he's had good WR's. Wood's has been great for us, same thing with Kupp. But those guys also had a full off season with their quarterback. Can you say the same for Watkins? If we all agree that Goff will be better in year two in this offense more so than even this year, why wouldn't the same be said about Sammy?

As for not needing receivers, talk to Andrew Luck and Russel Wilson and see how much they wish they had WR's like our own. I agree at times having a true WR1 can be a luxury. But if you have one, you are pretty much guaranteed to have a decent offense in one way shape or form. Right now, despite how good Goff has been and the strides he's made; he's not ready to carry this franchise on his back just yet. He's made it easier on number 30 for sure, proving his worth like Robin to his Batman. But he's not NightWing just yet (lol I'm a comic nerd sorry). And until he is, we have to give him all the weapons necessary to make that transition as smooth as possible. He'a already ahead of players like Andy Dalton or other one read quarterbacks who force the ball into their best players hands all of the time. He spreads the ball around, and that's what I love about the guy. But not yet...

Let Reynolds grow, let Kupp grow, let them learn off a guy like Watkins and Woods. They are still just rookies, and neither of them has the ability to take the top of the defense consistently just yet. Watkins is important, just like everybody else in this offense. And call me crazy but I think he's been our best redzone threat aside from Gurley to this point.

 

[jrry32]

Now, about Watkins? I get your argument about effect on game trumping mere receiving stats.

Let me ask you a question, though.

When you heard that Watkins was acquired in the trade, what went through your mind?

I’m guessing that it was something more than 39 catches and 593 yards. Especially in a contract year.

It certainly was for me.

This isn't fantasy football. Value comes down to more than just numbers.

 

[BonifayRam]

Not fully in favor of signing Sammy to a long term mega $$$ contract @ this time.I would prefer to use the limited cap funds in other areas...i.e. Goff's OL beefed up & secured into well into the future over thr priority of keeping Sammy. At the same time I would prefer Sammy over Trumaine Johnson too. But I could find some merit in front loading a 3yr type contract helping the possible damage to the future of this teams cap too.

My eyes seem to always go to observing Sammy on the field & sideline with a hitch UN-smooth walk(foot). Have we here forgotten as to why we got Sammy. Sammy has now undergone two surgeries to address a Jones fracture in his foot. It should be said here that Sammy will not be 25 yrs old till June of this yr.....this does help the concerns in this area some.

Why did the Bills decline Sammy Watkins' fifth-year team option for 2018? The NFL world knew that the Bills were clearly petrified of Sammy suffering another injury thus guaranteeing himself a massive payday for 2018, need to keep in mind that option years are guaranteed for injury only. The Bills management decision was not to commit big money to him in 2017 due to this massive injury risk. Then on top of that Sammy closely avoided the 2017 Bill PUP list to begin the 2017 training camp due to the lingering foot problems:

2016 17 Foot Questionable
2016 16 Foot Questionable
2016 15 Foot Questionable
2016 14 Foot Questionable
2016 13 Foot Questionable
2016 4 Foot Injured Reserve
2016 3 Foot Questionable
2016 2 Foot Questionable
2015 10 Ankle Probable
2015 9 Ankle Questionable
2015 7 Ankle Out
2015 6 Calf Questionable
2015 6 Ankle Day-To-Day
2015 5 Calf Questionable
2015 4 Calf Out
2015 3 Right Calf Day-To-Day
2015 1 Hamstring Probable
2014 14 Hip Probable
2014 12 Groin Probable
2014 11 Groin Probable
2014 10 Groin Questionable
2014 8 Groin Probable
2014 5 Ribs Probable
2014 4 Ribs Probable
2014 3 Ribs Probable
2014 2 Ribs Probable
2014 1 Ribs Probable

Here's a sample at Sammy's early various ailments his first yr & a half period of time....

Aug. 16, 2014: Watkins exited the Bills' second preseason game against the Pittsburgh Steelers with what the team called a rib contusion and did not return.

Aug. 28, 2014: After missing the Bills' third preseason game, Watkins returned for the preseason finale but pulled himself out of the game after reinjuring his ribs. Months later, Watkins revealed that he was dealing not only with a rib contusion but with broken ribs.

Sept. 14, 2014: Watkins scored his first NFL touchdown in a Week 2 win over the Miami Dolphins, part of an eight-catch, 117-yard performance. Watkins was checked out by trainers multiple times during the game and was hunched over on the sideline at one point.

Oct. 8, 2014: Watkins was removed from the injury report after being listed for the first five weeks of the season with the rib ailment.

Oct. 22, 2014: Watkins was added to the Bills' injury report with a groin injury but was a full participant in practice. Four days later, he gained a career-high 157 receiving yards in the Bills' win over the New York Jets and was named the NFL's offensive rookie of the month for October.

Nov. 5, 2014: Watkins left the Bills' Wednesday session with a groin injury and did not practice for the rest of the week. However, he played in the Bills' Nov. 9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, catching four passes on 10 targets.

Nov. 30, 2014: Watkins suffered a hip injury in the Bills' Week 13 win over the Cleveland Browns but returned to play the following Sunday in a loss to the Denver Broncos, catching seven passes for 127 yards.

Dec. 10, 2014: Watkins was removed from the injury report and did not reappear on it for the final three weeks of the season.

Early 2015 offseason: Watkins underwent surgery on his hip and sat out the vast majority of organized team activities as he rehabbed.

July 31, 2015: Watkins participated fully when the Bills opened training camp at St. John Fisher College.

Aug 6, 2015: Watkins didn't finish practice after getting "a little nicked up," as Rex Ryan put it, but Watkins said he was dealing with soreness from his offseason surgery.

Aug. 17, 2015: After easing back into practice, Watkins exited a training camp practice again with what was called glute soreness. He sat out the final three preseason games for precautionary reasons.

Sept. 9, 2015: Watkins was listed on the Bills' first injury report with a hamstring injury but was a full participant in practice. He was removed from the injury report by Week 2.

Sept. 27, 2015: Watkins left the Bills' win over the Miami Dolphins with a calf injury and missed two games, against the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans.

Oct. 18, 2015: Watkins fell awkwardly in the end zone while making a 22-yard touchdown catch late in the first half of a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Television cameras later showed him on crutches outside the locker room, and his sprained ankle kept him out of a crushing Bills loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars the next weekend in London.

Now if we ignore the above & just look @ this season ...we see a Ram pass catcher who caught less passes that 3 other Ram players (Kupp/Woods/Gurley) {one was a 3rd round pick rookie too},with 39 catches for 593 yds 8 TDs.Sammy has showed some chemistry with Jared Goff but not as solid as Woods & Kupp have but far from a monster 2017 season. Bare in mind that Rams closely monitor Sammy's foot damage & work hard on finding ways for him to manage his foot pain .

I will admit that Sammy does some very good things out there & he did help us win the West this year. I agree that his blocking has been a pleasant surprise. I also think his hands are the best on this team. I also see poor route running & periodic lack of premium effort on some pass plays too. I see flashes of what he might be in our future, but this is a 4 yr player were speaking of too.This will be Sammy's first playoff game as well for most all the Rams drafted by the Rams Org. Nows the time for Sammy to show up with a monster playoff run performance ....I might have to change my stance then.

 

[Rams43]

This isn't fantasy football. Value comes down to more than just numbers.

What does that even mean, jrry32?

I hate fantasy football.

But, how to quantify Watkins value without using SOME stats?

I get the intangibles argument. Up to a point.

But the Watkins contract moment of truth is just around the corner. Thus the thread topic and discussion.

How much is he REALLY worth to the “spread it around” ‘18 Rams? I wonder.

 

[FrantikRam]

You won't catch me defending Tavon, but I will say this - he was clearly more effective in Fisher's offense. McVay's offense is obviously much more....robust....than Fisher's, to say the least. Tavon had a horrifically bad, almost impossibly bad, wonderlic score. Not that that is the end all be all, but my guess is Tavon doesn't full grasp the offense and has low football awareness. I'm fine with just flat out cutting him if we can't find a trade partner.


Sammy - I've said this a bunch this year I feel like, but he displayed several moments where he looked like a number one WR. He had several clutch catches, and I think someone said 0 drops - and he leads the team in TD catches.

So did we expect more than 600 yards? I'm guessing everyone did.

But we had a ton wide open WRs all year long, and Goff has more chemistry with literally every other WR from more time in camp. I'm all for re-signing Sammy because he's young and he is an elite deep threat.

I'm sure Sammy was open a lot and didn't get the ball - but at the same time, we have 4 different players that could go off for 140 yards receiving in a game and nobody would be surprised - that's a good thing.

 

[FrantikRam]

What does that even mean, jrry32?

I hate fantasy football.

But, how to quantify Watkins value without using SOME stats?

I get the intangibles argument. Up to a point.

But the Watkins contract moment of truth is just around the corner. Thus the thread topic and discussion.

How much is he REALLY worth to the “spread it around” ‘18 Rams? I wonder.

Stat #1: 8 TDs - only 7 players had more than 8 TDs this year (although several players have 8)

Stat #2: 2438 yards - the combined amount of Kupp, Woods, and Gurley - think they get that much when they become the main focuses in the passing game? For Gurley and Woods it was their best receiving seasons ever; for Kupp it was the best Rams rookie receiving season ever. Coincidence?

Stat #3: 1953 yards rushing - Sammy is a good run blocking WR

Now factor in that he joined the team just a week or so before the season started


If you add up Watkins projected contract, Gurley, Woods, and Kupp and averaged it all out - they as a group would be right on par with what they should be making.

 

[LACHAMP46]

Why the pedestrian numbers in ‘17 for Watkins?

McVay calls the plays...devises the attack plan...I'd say 8 td's is pretty efficient....Watkins should have more plays called for him....He's very productive in the redzone...and on 3rd downs. I'd be very surprised if he isn't utilized very heavy in the next 2 games.

Tavon is a running back type...who hasn't developed the most important part of being a receiver...his hands. Dude just can't catch....balls on the way before he makes his break, he's sure to drop it....if I were the wr coach, I'd have his eyes checked.

 

[LACHAMP46]

for Kupp it was the best Rams rookie receiving season ever. Coincidence?

you were rollin until I read this.....you do know Torrey Holt played his rookie year with Kurt Warner???

 

[Merlin]

Look, I’m just trying to point out that there are legit alternatives to just writing Watkins a blank check in an amount exceeding $10 + million per.

I'm trackin what you're saying. It's just that he provides a critical element in our passing game and if he leaves you can't sign just anyone to do that. Playing X requires a skill set of being strong enough to get off the LOS vs the other teams' best CBs, but also having the speed to beat them. Watkins has those elements, and he also has plus hands not to mention does some other stuff other wideouts hate like blocking.

If Woods had played X for us this season his stats would look like crap. Same with Cupp. Watkins this year was a sin eater in that way for us, but he also has high end talent and I have to think with this particular staff and him actually going through a training camp with them, that he'd improve too.

Even if they, say, transition tag him, some team will pay him an insane contract based on the above and the Rams won't match it. And then the Rams will be left needing to overpay in FA for a guy who can play X, but who probably won't be nearly as feared as Watkins.

In this particular offseason, I favor signing him. If for whatever reason he wants high end money, then he'll probably be gone and we'll move on. But I'd try to get him locked down so we can focus on our defense.

 

[FrantikRam]

you were rollin until I read this.....you do know Torrey Holt played his rookie year with Kurt Warner???

Yea I just meant statistically. Kupp had the most prolific rookie WR season in Rams history.

Torry had 52/788/6

Kupp had 62/869/5

 

[Rams43]

I'm trackin what you're saying. It's just that he provides a critical element in our passing game and if he leaves you can't sign just anyone to do that. Playing X requires a skill set of being strong enough to get off the LOS vs the other teams' best CBs, but also having the speed to beat them. Watkins has those elements, and he also has plus hands not to mention does some other stuff other wideouts hate like blocking.

If Woods had played X for us this season his stats would look like crap. Same with Cupp. Watkins this year was a sin eater in that way for us, but he also has high end talent and I have to think with this particular staff and him actually going through a training camp with them, that he'd improve too.

Even if they, say, transition tag him, some team will pay him an insane contract based on the above and the Rams won't match it. And then the Rams will be left needing to overpay in FA for a guy who can play X, but who probably won't be nearly as feared as Watkins.

In this particular offseason, I favor signing him. If for whatever reason he wants high end money, then he'll probably be gone and we'll move on. But I'd try to get him locked down so we can focus on our defense.

Good points, Merlin.

As usual.

Nice discussion, man.

We can revisit contracts for Tavon, Watkins, Quinn, and Barron after the playoffs.

 

[kurtfaulk]

Receiver generally is one of the easiest positions to find.

did you really just say that? have you seen the rams the last 14 years before mcvay took charge?

TB12 has won without high priced receivers.

randy moss? gronk? the 2 biggest mismatches in the history of the game. before them they won with defense and cheating.

.

 

[Mackeyser]

I'm just gonna lay it down like this.

Everyone had reduced stats because the offense was SO efficient and our D held teams in check.

We had such big leads that we didn't need guys to make plays that would inflate their stats beyond the 3rd quarter in most games.

Had we had to win shootouts, I think all 4 guys, Woods, Kupp, Watkins and Gurley would have over 1k yards.

But we didn't. And McVay is focusing on efficiency.

So, don't think for a minute that McVay doesn't fully understand how key Watkins is in making this offense more efficient.

 

[Rmfnlt]

He’s new to the team, players everything. Also, we don’t know how fast/well he learns.

I'm not buying this anymore.

Sure, early in the season? But, IMO, he's had plenty of time to absorb the play book. And, if after all this time, he's still struggling? Mark me down as concerned.

I’m another poster that ignores the “predict the score” threads, OldSchool.

Add another!

 

[Soul Surfer]

I don't even know why you're comparing Watkins and Tavon.

Watkins is doing just fine and if he re-signs he will be doing even better.

Tavon is over his head, overrated and done.

 

[LesBaker]

Way too many excuses for Watkins on this forum.

Why can't he be an Antonio Brown? Why can't he be a DeAndre Hopkins? There isn't a legitimate reason.

How about this? He isn't as good as everyone thinks he is.

I'd argue that as mentioned it's the system that the Rams deploy on O. Lots of guys are getting the ball.

Not sure if you are a hoops fan but think of this as a team with a fantastic point guard in a system that is designed to get players in place for shots. Maybe there isn't a guy getting 32 plus points on average every night but there are three guys getting 18-22.

This isn't fantasy football. Value comes down to more than just numbers.

The coaches watch the tape, they see Watkins drawing the defense over, they see safeties rolling to his area in pass patterns out of fear of the long TD momentum/score changing play. Especially when the score is close and the defenses don't want to give up the easy long distance strike. This gives McVay big chunks of the field to use.

Think of chess, Watkins is the Queen opening up the board for the other pieces.

But, how to quantify Watkins value without using SOME stats?

See above, you handsome devil.

How much is he REALLY worth to the “spread it around” ‘18 Rams? I wonder.

Now that is the $64,000 question my friend. And that will be the hard choice this offseason. The Rams have to set a $$$ ceiling. Demoff, while he is a marketing doofus does a good job with contracts so I expect to see Watkins signed. If they tag him I'm OK with it. I'd rather keep Watkins that TJ.

But we didn't. And McVay is focusing on efficiency.

I'd use a different word. Effectiveness. He's calling plays (that he has probably designed for situational football) to effectively close out games when there is a lead in hand, which has been most of the time. And he's been getting the ball to Gurley in those situations on screens since Gurley has been killing it in the passing game. And running too except for a couple of times when he has gone Martz and forgotten that running the ball is stiall legal in the NFL.

 

[jrry32]

What does that even mean, jrry32?

I hate fantasy football.

But, how to quantify Watkins value without using SOME stats?

I get the intangibles argument. Up to a point.

But the Watkins contract moment of truth is just around the corner. Thus the thread topic and discussion.

How much is he REALLY worth to the “spread it around” ‘18 Rams? I wonder.

It means that schematic value comes down to more than just stats. Watkins affects how teams defend us. That's valuable. This offense spreads the ball around, and he was a late addition. Note how he's becoming a bigger and bigger part of our red-zone plans. That's not by accident. I think McVay very much values his skill-set. It's not easy to find guys who can take the top off the defense and have a very good pair of mitts. If you watch our film, we've thrown underneath Watkins often this year.

 

[pmil66]

I don't even know why you're comparing Watkins and Tavon.

Watkins is doing just fine and if he re-signs he will be doing even better.

Tavon is over his head, overrated and done.

Agree, Sammy is a much, much better overall receiver than Tavon. Tavon would have been moved, but could not because of that contract. Would love to see Sammy come back on a reasonable contract.

 

[Merlin]

All the good discussion above aside... THIS is where dudes can really make names for themselves. You beast out in the playoffs and everyone sees it. It's much different than the weekly fantasy look, where most people aren't seeing the players and are just checking line scores.

So IMO if there was ever a game for Sammy to go off in, it's this one. It is his first time in the playoffs and it's been a while since he's burned a team badly. The Falcons are reportedly going to have Jones shadowing TG. I am sure McVay anticipates that and if so will make them pay.

Look for the wideouts to roll in some big plays early in this game.

 

[BriansRams]

I really like Watkins. I too would like to see him a Ram next year. I feel like he'll improve even more in this offense. There is one thing however I hope he can become.
Some of you are saying "He takes away the #1 DB in a game, leaving our other receivers more open."

That's great. That's nice to have. But I'd like to see Watkins (next year) take away the #1 DB ... AND ... put up numbers like 5 catches for 100 yards. You know? Now THAT is a true stud #1 WR. Someone who demands their best DB but still racks up catches and yards.