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Projecting The 2017 Compensatory Draft Picks
http://overthecap.com/projecting-2017-compensatory-draft-picks/
This article refers specifically to OTC’s projection for the 2017 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article.
Furthermore, due to the complexity I have written separate articles on all possible compensatory pick scenarios on the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins. You may find the Broncos’ article at Thin Air, and the Dolphins’ article here at OTC.
The Projection
Note that although there are 38 eligible compensatory picks listed in this projection, each year only exactly 32 picks are awarded. Therefore, the picks that rank 33rd and lower are not awarded, although the official release will typically acknowledge their presence, as this list does with strikethrough text.
This is also the first year in which compensatory picks may be traded. Before they have even been released, there have been four trades executed that include conditions on possible comp picks. I’m projecting that three of these four conditions will be fulfilled: Tennessee receiving Los Angeles’s 3rd round comp pick (as part of the Jared Goff trade), New England receiving Cleveland’s 3rd round comp pick (for Jamie Collins), and Philadelphia receiving the first of Cleveland’s 4th round comp picks (as part of the Carson Wentz trade). While I’m not projecting that the fourth condition will be met, in which Miami would send Minnesota a 4th round comp pick, there is a decent probability that I could be wrong about that (see below, and also see this detailed 2017 compensatory pick projection for the Miami Dolphins).
A few other notable observations:
Cutoff Projections
Last year, it was suggested by the resolution allowing comp picks to be traded on December 2, 2015that the cutoffs between each rounds and whether or not a player had an APY high enough to qualify was determined by a “rank[ing] against all players in the League who are on rosters at the end of the season”. For the 2016 projections, I conjectured from this evidence that the cutoffs were based on a percentile system. The official release of the 2016 comp picks strongly suggested that my conjectured percentile cutoff points were on the right track. Therefore, for 2017 I will use the same percentile system, with the specific percentiles adjusted based upon the results from 2015 and 2016.
At the end of the 2016 regular season, OTC’s database identified a total of 2098 players that were either on the active roster or reserve lists. As explained in the general methodology in the previous link, the cutoffs for each round and for qualifying as a compensatory free agent (CFA) have been established by this projection on certain percentile ranks of all players on the active roster and reserve lists at the end of the regular season, sorted by APY adjusted for snap counts in descending order and also represented by the player at the cutoff point. For 2017, these cutoffs are as follows:
View attachment 18420
*Make special note of these two players, as not only are they 2017 CFAs, but they are also critical to the projections of Denver and Miami, part of the reason why I have written separate articles for both the Broncos and Dolphins.
Qualifying Questions
This year, I foresee five players relevant to the comp pick projection being close calls as to qualification that could significantly change certain comp picks.
There are also four players relevant to the comp pick projection being close calls as to round valuation that could significantly change certain comp picks.
While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are very close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.
3rd/4th
http://overthecap.com/projecting-2017-compensatory-draft-picks/
This article refers specifically to OTC’s projection for the 2017 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article.
Furthermore, due to the complexity I have written separate articles on all possible compensatory pick scenarios on the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins. You may find the Broncos’ article at Thin Air, and the Dolphins’ article here at OTC.
The Projection
Note that although there are 38 eligible compensatory picks listed in this projection, each year only exactly 32 picks are awarded. Therefore, the picks that rank 33rd and lower are not awarded, although the official release will typically acknowledge their presence, as this list does with strikethrough text.
This is also the first year in which compensatory picks may be traded. Before they have even been released, there have been four trades executed that include conditions on possible comp picks. I’m projecting that three of these four conditions will be fulfilled: Tennessee receiving Los Angeles’s 3rd round comp pick (as part of the Jared Goff trade), New England receiving Cleveland’s 3rd round comp pick (for Jamie Collins), and Philadelphia receiving the first of Cleveland’s 4th round comp picks (as part of the Carson Wentz trade). While I’m not projecting that the fourth condition will be met, in which Miami would send Minnesota a 4th round comp pick, there is a decent probability that I could be wrong about that (see below, and also see this detailed 2017 compensatory pick projection for the Miami Dolphins).
A few other notable observations:
- This year should see a record number of 3rd round comp picks awarded. OTC projects it at nine, with a possibility of ten, but even if that is too generous, 2017 will almost certainly break the current record of six from 1997 and 2005. Not a single 3rd round valued CFA lost was cancelled out by a CFA gained.
- OTC’s projection calls for only one 7th round comp pick, but that pick is very much on the bubble and may be pushed below the 32-pick limit. Last year witnessed the first time that no 7th round comp picks were awarded, and we may very well see that feat repeated in 2017.
- This may also be the first year in which teams will lose out on more than one comp pick due to the 32-pick limit. Pittsburgh is projected to lose out on two eligible 7th round comp picks for this reason, and Arizona may lose out on three. Thankfully for the Steelers and Cardinals, both are still projected to earn a 5th round comp pick above the 32-pick limit.
- I would also like to add that the extremely UFA-averse Packers are also projected to miss out on a 7th round comp pick for Scott Tolzien due again to the 32-pick limit. There’s been pressure in recent years on GM Ted Thompson to not be so miserly in the UFA market, and 2017 could have been a good year for him to make a rare splash in that market.
Cutoff Projections
Last year, it was suggested by the resolution allowing comp picks to be traded on December 2, 2015that the cutoffs between each rounds and whether or not a player had an APY high enough to qualify was determined by a “rank[ing] against all players in the League who are on rosters at the end of the season”. For the 2016 projections, I conjectured from this evidence that the cutoffs were based on a percentile system. The official release of the 2016 comp picks strongly suggested that my conjectured percentile cutoff points were on the right track. Therefore, for 2017 I will use the same percentile system, with the specific percentiles adjusted based upon the results from 2015 and 2016.
At the end of the 2016 regular season, OTC’s database identified a total of 2098 players that were either on the active roster or reserve lists. As explained in the general methodology in the previous link, the cutoffs for each round and for qualifying as a compensatory free agent (CFA) have been established by this projection on certain percentile ranks of all players on the active roster and reserve lists at the end of the regular season, sorted by APY adjusted for snap counts in descending order and also represented by the player at the cutoff point. For 2017, these cutoffs are as follows:
View attachment 18420
*Make special note of these two players, as not only are they 2017 CFAs, but they are also critical to the projections of Denver and Miami, part of the reason why I have written separate articles for both the Broncos and Dolphins.
Qualifying Questions
This year, I foresee five players relevant to the comp pick projection being close calls as to qualification that could significantly change certain comp picks.
- The Jets signed Jarvis Jenkins to a two year deal on March 16, and then cut him on Wednesday, November 9, in between the games of Weeks 9 and 10. There were two instances of potential CFAs cut within this time span close to the Week 10 cutoff that did not qualify. Bobby Engram was cut by the Chiefs on the Monday of this week in 2009, and Greg Favors was cut by the Colts on the Friday of this week in 2002. Because neither Engram nor Favors qualified, I am projecting that Jenkins will not qualify either, but because it’s close enough there’s a chance I’m wrong and he might qualify.
- Kelvin Sheppard, formerly of the Dolphins, signed a one year, $840,000 deal under the minimum salary benefit with the Giants. Sheppard played 40.8% of the defensive snaps largely in a starting role for New York. Ranked 965th overall, I’m projecting that this is enough for Sheppard to qualify, but there is a very good chance that I may be wrong and he may not qualify.
- Like Sheppard, Corey White and Robert Blanton also signed $840,000 MSB deals with the Bills, and respectively came in at 966th and 975th overall after playing 38.5% and 26.8% of the defensive snaps. I’m also projecting that Blanton and White will also qualify, but like Sheppard there is a chance they will not qualify.
- Sam Young signed a one year, $910,000 deal with the Dolphins on March 9, $50,000 of which was a workout bonus that does not count in the compensatory formula. Young did not make Miami’s initial 53-man roster, but was re-signed on October 11 to the veteran minimum, a day after Week 5 ended. I have yet to find out if a qualifying CFA not on the roster for entire season also receives a docking to his APY in the compensatory formula. Even if his APY is a full $860,000, because he played so little (15.5% of the offensive snaps) he is right on the qualifying bubble as described above in the cutoffs table. I’m barely projecting that Young will qualify, but his qualification is the one I am the most uncertain about.
There are also four players relevant to the comp pick projection being close calls as to round valuation that could significantly change certain comp picks.
- Kelvin Beachum, formerly of the Steelers, signed a deal with the Jaguars on March 19 that was initially reported as a five year, $45 million contract for an APY of $9 million. However, the contract contained a team option on all but the first year. It is my belief (and one also held by Joel Corry) that for the purposes of the compensatory formula only the terms of the first year will count. With a base salary of $2.5 million, a $1.5 million traditional roster bonus, and $1 million in per game roster bonuses (for a total of $5M APY), I’m projecting that Beachum will be valued as a 5th rounder. But if I’m wrong and the entire contract is counted, Beachum will likely be valued as a 3rd rounder, subsequently raising Pittsburgh’s comp pick for him.
- Very similar to Beachum, Russell Okung, formerly of the Seahawks, signed a deal with the Broncos on March 17 that was initially reported as a five year, $53 million contract for an APY of $10.6 million. However, like Beachum, the Broncos contain a team option on all but the first year. I’m projecting that his APY for the compensatory formula will be only $4 million ($2 million base salary plus a $2 million roster bonus, but not including a $1 million workout bonus) and thus Okung is projected to be valued as a 6th rounder. However, as with Beachum, if I’m wrong on Okung he will be valued as a 3rd rounder and impact comp picks for both Denver and Seattle.
- During the 2016 NFL Draft, the Vikings and Dolphins made a trade that included a condition on a 2017 4th round pick. If the Dolphins are awarded a 4th round comp pick in 2017, the Vikings will receive that pick; if not, they will receive the Dolphins’ regular 4th rounder. I’m projecting that the Dolphins will not receive a 4th round comp pick, but their projected 5th round comp pick for Lamar Miller (ranked 216th overall) is close enough to the 4th/5th cutoff at 196 that there’s a chance that Miller could be valued as a 4th.
- Similarly, the Patriots traded Jamie Collins to the Browns in exchange for either a 2018 regular 4th round pick, or a 2017 compensatory 3rd round pick if the Browns are awarded one. I’m projecting Cleveland will indeed get a 3rd for Alex Mack, but at a ranking of 87th overall he is close enough to the 3rd/4th cutoff that there is a chance he could fall on the other side.
While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are very close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.
3rd/4th
- Alex Mack (Cleveland, traded to New England): #87
- Sean Smith (Kansas City): #91
- Bruce Irvin (Seattle): #95
- Projected 3rd/4th cutoff: #105
- Damon Harrison (NY Jets): #106
- Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati): #203
- Danny Trevathan (Denver): #210
- Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #210
- Lamar Miller (Miami): #216
- Bobby Massie (Arizona): #222
- JR Sweezy (Seattle): #277
- Rishard Matthews (Miami): #284
- Projected 5th/6th cutoff: #294
- Donald Stephenson (Denver): #304
- Reggie Nelson (Cincinnati): #318
- Projected 7th/Qualifying cutoff: #493
- David Bruton (Denver): #500
- Kelvin Sheppard (NY Giants): #965
- Corey White (Buffalo): #966
- Robert Blanton (Buffalo): #975
- Sam Young (Miami): #985
- Projected 7th/Qualifying cutoff: #985
- Arizona
- If Corey White does not qualify, Arizona will not be eligible for a 7th for him.
- Buffalo
- If Robert Blanton and Corey White do not qualify, Buffalo will be eligible for a net-value 7th, but it will not make it above the 32-pick limit.
- Cleveland
- If Alex Mack is valued as a 4th, Cleveland will send the 4th round comp pick for him to Philadelphia, and retain their 4th for Tashaun Gipson.
- Denver
- Green Bay
- Green Bay will get a 7th for Scott Tolzien above the 32-pick limit if one of the following scenarios happen:
- Jarvis Jenkins qualifies
- Sam Young qualifies, and Kelvin Sheppard does not qualify
- Green Bay will get a 7th for Scott Tolzien above the 32-pick limit if one of the following scenarios happen:
- Kansas City
- If Sean Smith is valued as a 4th, Kansas City will get a 4th for Jeff Allen instead of a 3rd for Smith.
- Miami
- New England
- If Alex Mack is valued as a 4th, New England will not receive a 3rd round comp pick from Cleveland in 2017, and will instead be owed a regular 4th round pick in 2018.
- NY Jets
- If Jarvis Jenkins qualifies, the Jets will not get a 4th for Damon Harrison, and will instead be eligible for a net-value 7th, but it will not make it above the 32-pick limit.
- Pittsburgh
- If the entirety of Kelvin Beachum’s contract is counted, Pittsburgh will get a 3rd for him instead of a 5th.
- If Sam Young and Jarvis Jenkins qualify, and Kelvin Sheppard does not qualify, Pittsburgh will get a 7th for Antwon Blake above the 32-pick limit.
- Seattle
- If the entirety of Russell Okung’s contract is counted, Seattle will get a 3rd for him instead of a 5th for JR Sweezy.
- *********************************************************************************
- A third-round pick for losing CB Janoris Jenkins to the New York Giants
- A fourth-round pick for losing S Rodney McLeod to the Philadelphia Eagles
- A sixth-round pick for losing DT Nick Fairley to the New Orleans Saints
Attachments
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