- Joined
- Jun 24, 2010
- Messages
- 34,100
- Name
- Stu
Personally, I think their total for the Rams during the regular season is 2 too low. I posted transcripts from the top four but the rest can be found here:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...l-win-totals-for-2018-rams-chiefs-riding-high
Now that eight weeks of the 2018 season have passed, we have enough data about the identity and potential of each team to really start sorting out who will be contending in January and who will be picking near the top of the 2019 NFL Draft next spring.
Just as I did before the season began, I've used a model to generate projected final win totals for the 2018 campaign, providing a peek at how things could play out as we head down the final stretch toward the playoffs.
But first, here's a quick look at how my model works.
My model compares this season's games with 15 previous seasons of situational production metrics that led to wins and losses (between 2003 and 2017). Tracking personnel, matchups, play-calling and results from past seasons establishes historical "profiles." The results from the games that have already been played this season are then collected and analyzed in the same way, with the model revealing similarities between the current iteration of each team and its past versions. Then each remaining game is simulated. The reason every game isn't a 50/50 coin flip is because each team has different strengths and weaknesses, and the way they match up against each other has different historical references for "what happened most often." Because there are many different ways the situational aspect of football can play out, it's necessary to run many simulations for each remaining game, to see each of the involved teams' profiles stack up over a range of reasonable situations.
Just how many times is each game simulated? While I might ordinarily go with a figure like 10,000, I decided to up the number to 20,000, including each remaining game in the regular season (there are 135 left).
A quick note: Scoring is obviously up this year compared to past years (we're on track to set a new offensive scoring record). But that change hasn't yet -- and likely won't -- significantly affect the use of historical data, as the most influential production factors (things like turnovers and red-zone efficiency), taken in context of the game situation (think: down, distance, score and time), remain consistent with what we've seen before, in terms of what relates most strongly to the ability to win games.
Below, you'll see the projected final win totals for all 32 teams in the NFL, from highest win totals to lowest.
RANK 1
RAMS: 14.0 wins
Current record: 8-0. Projected playoff percentage: 99.9.
The Rams already ranked first in interior pressure before the addition of Dante Fowler at the trade deadline. Fowler will complement that strength by bringing more perimeter pressure potential and rotational depth. In the 15-season model, teams that won the most games and made the deepest playoff runs followed this blueprint: combining elite defensive front pressure with exceptional production from the offensive backfield. When your approach reduces the likelihood of offensive turnovers and increases the likelihood of causing turnovers on defense, good things happen. The Rams were already elite at both aspects of the game and just got better.
RANK 2
CHIEFS: 12.8 wins
Current record: 7-1. Projected playoff percentage: 99.9.
If they can hold their current pace, the Chiefs will produce the highest rates of offensive diversity and combined efficiency at the running back, tight end and wide receiver positions in my model's history. So far, Kansas City has been able to outpace its defensive inefficiencies. The Chiefs' defense has given up the most big plays per game (9.3), and it's possible that this ineffectiveness, by forcing Patrick Mahomes to learn more offensive plays in high-pressure situations, helped accelerate his learning curve.
RANK 3
PATRIOTS: 11.8 wins
Current record: 6-2. Projected playoff percentage: 99.0.
Defensive pressures are increasing. In Weeks 1-4, the Pats ranked 26th; now they're tied with Houston for the 13th-most pressures on the season.
RANK 4
SAINTS: 11.4 wins
Current record: 6-1. Projected playoff percentage: 91.2.
The next three games (vs. Rams, at Bengals, vs. Eagles) -- combined with the Saints' ability to handle elite pressure on offense (especially interior pressure) and their defense's ability to stop the pass -- will help us sort out just how high New Orleans' ceiling is this season.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...l-win-totals-for-2018-rams-chiefs-riding-high
Now that eight weeks of the 2018 season have passed, we have enough data about the identity and potential of each team to really start sorting out who will be contending in January and who will be picking near the top of the 2019 NFL Draft next spring.
Just as I did before the season began, I've used a model to generate projected final win totals for the 2018 campaign, providing a peek at how things could play out as we head down the final stretch toward the playoffs.
But first, here's a quick look at how my model works.
My model compares this season's games with 15 previous seasons of situational production metrics that led to wins and losses (between 2003 and 2017). Tracking personnel, matchups, play-calling and results from past seasons establishes historical "profiles." The results from the games that have already been played this season are then collected and analyzed in the same way, with the model revealing similarities between the current iteration of each team and its past versions. Then each remaining game is simulated. The reason every game isn't a 50/50 coin flip is because each team has different strengths and weaknesses, and the way they match up against each other has different historical references for "what happened most often." Because there are many different ways the situational aspect of football can play out, it's necessary to run many simulations for each remaining game, to see each of the involved teams' profiles stack up over a range of reasonable situations.
Just how many times is each game simulated? While I might ordinarily go with a figure like 10,000, I decided to up the number to 20,000, including each remaining game in the regular season (there are 135 left).
A quick note: Scoring is obviously up this year compared to past years (we're on track to set a new offensive scoring record). But that change hasn't yet -- and likely won't -- significantly affect the use of historical data, as the most influential production factors (things like turnovers and red-zone efficiency), taken in context of the game situation (think: down, distance, score and time), remain consistent with what we've seen before, in terms of what relates most strongly to the ability to win games.
Below, you'll see the projected final win totals for all 32 teams in the NFL, from highest win totals to lowest.
RANK 1
RAMS: 14.0 wins
Current record: 8-0. Projected playoff percentage: 99.9.
The Rams already ranked first in interior pressure before the addition of Dante Fowler at the trade deadline. Fowler will complement that strength by bringing more perimeter pressure potential and rotational depth. In the 15-season model, teams that won the most games and made the deepest playoff runs followed this blueprint: combining elite defensive front pressure with exceptional production from the offensive backfield. When your approach reduces the likelihood of offensive turnovers and increases the likelihood of causing turnovers on defense, good things happen. The Rams were already elite at both aspects of the game and just got better.
RANK 2
CHIEFS: 12.8 wins
Current record: 7-1. Projected playoff percentage: 99.9.
If they can hold their current pace, the Chiefs will produce the highest rates of offensive diversity and combined efficiency at the running back, tight end and wide receiver positions in my model's history. So far, Kansas City has been able to outpace its defensive inefficiencies. The Chiefs' defense has given up the most big plays per game (9.3), and it's possible that this ineffectiveness, by forcing Patrick Mahomes to learn more offensive plays in high-pressure situations, helped accelerate his learning curve.
RANK 3
PATRIOTS: 11.8 wins
Current record: 6-2. Projected playoff percentage: 99.0.
Defensive pressures are increasing. In Weeks 1-4, the Pats ranked 26th; now they're tied with Houston for the 13th-most pressures on the season.
RANK 4
SAINTS: 11.4 wins
Current record: 6-1. Projected playoff percentage: 91.2.
The next three games (vs. Rams, at Bengals, vs. Eagles) -- combined with the Saints' ability to handle elite pressure on offense (especially interior pressure) and their defense's ability to stop the pass -- will help us sort out just how high New Orleans' ceiling is this season.
