Odds of finding a long term QB outside the first round

[LA Rampant]

Contained in an article about Zak Prescott by Dallas journalist/Cowboys reporter Bob Sturm (I didn't vet his numbers, but he does qualify the context with the phrase "five-year" starting QB ).
http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dal...-dak-prescott-certainly-offers-flashes-worthy

"This seems to agree with what the fans want -- just go pick up that future No. 1 in Round 3 or 4 -- and load up on guys who will be instant starters in the top two rounds. Unfortunately, reality bites. And reality tells us that teams that try to find their QBs after Round 2 (or even the top few picks of Round 2) have a snowball's chance in Hades of actually finding that guy. Oh, sure, there is the occasional Russell Wilson and the even more occasional Tom Brady, but the odds of finding your five-year starting QB after pick No. 40 drops quickly to about a 1-in-25 chance. After Round 3, it drops to about 1-in-50. And to find a Brady, or even a Tony Romo where they were found, is pretty much the same odds as Leicester City winning it all. It may happen, but it surely should not be expected."

List of LA/STL Rams starting QBs dating back to 1946 (actually extends to CLE and 1937)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Los_Angeles_Rams_starting_quarterbacks

Five (or more) year starters in franchise history

Bob Waterfield (Round 5) - 1945 (CLE) 1946-1952 (LA)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Waterfield
Norm Van Brocklin (Round 4) - 1950-1957 (LA)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norm_Van_Brocklin
Roman Gabriel (#2 overall NFL/#1 overall AFL) - 1963-1972 (LA)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Gabriel
Pat Haden (Round 7) - 1976-1979 & 1981 (LA)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Haden
Jim Everett (#3 overall) - 1987-1993 (LA)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Everett
Marc Bulger (Round 6) - 2002-2009 (STL)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Bulger

 

[den-the-coach]

I don't care Rams found their Quarterback for the next 16 years in Jared Thomas Goff.

 

[LACHAMP46]

Like @flv
the game has changed....the advent of 7 on 7 passing academy's....the private coaches....these young players are armed with info...and the correct techniques to succeed in today's game....I think they drafted 16 QB's this year...and several will be successful.

 

[LA Rampant]

Like I said, I didn't vet Sturm's numbers, but since the article is dated from 2016, I'm not assuming the data doesn't accurately reflect events TO DATE, Negative Nancy!

 

[snackdaddy]

There are plenty of instances where good quarterbacks were found outside the first round. But those are more exceptions than the rule. For every quarterback drafted later that made it, there were 20 others who didn't.

And lets not forget the circumstances of the team that drafted a good quarterback. Russell Wilson's a good example. He's pretty good now and wasn't bad his rookie season either. But he came into a good situation. He had an elite running back and stout defense. He didn't have to carry his team. You put a team on a rookie's shoulders and ask him to carry them, you're asking for trouble.

Goff is in a similar situation as Wilson was. He's got an elite running back to lean on. The line is improved. And he won't have to play catchup week after week with that defense. They won't have to ask him to do too much. Move the chains and hit the occasional big play. Score just enough to let the defense win it and allow Gurley to take over.

 

[LA Rampant]

Like @flv
the game has changed....the advent of 7 on 7 passing academy's....the private coaches....these young players are armed with info...and the correct techniques to succeed in today's game....I think they drafted 16 QB's this year...and several will be successful.

Maybe, maybe not. Not sure I agree with your premise, but good thought and constructive criticism, you may well be right. Again, I didn't vet his numbers so am at a disadvantage in commenting on them, was just passing them along.

I don't have data on that specific question (has the QB bust rate changed appreciably in recent years).

While not mentioned by you, I assume you are aware that pedigree factors into the equation (odds are different for a #1 overall pick like Goff vs. a seventh rounder like Brandon "Apple Pan" Doughty), so it would be interesting if that PATTERN OF DIFFERENTIAL ODDS AS A FUNCTION OF ROUND for success or failure is a constant even if you are right and there has been some discernible change in the PERCENTAGE of non-bust QBs in recent years, or if that DIFFERENTIAL PATTERN has itself changed.

I would say (strongly suggest based on conjecture) pedigree still has compelling "predictive" use.

We also need to account for Sturm qualifying his point by restricting it to "five-year starting QBs". It wouldn't shock me at all if 0-1 QBs outside of Goff, Wentz and Lynch end up meeting that more exacting and rigorous criteria. I'm not sure the odds are even as high as 50/50 that Goff, Wentz and Lynch will be five year starters, and they are first rounders?