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https://www.ocregister.com/2018/06/...ure-aaron-donald-but-they-hold-all-the-cards/
There are approximately 80,000 reasons why Aaron Donald will report next week to the Rams’ mandatory minicamp in Thousand Oaks – that figure representing the amount of money the best defensive player in the NFL will lose to fines should he skip the three-day camp.
But there are more than 70 million reasons why his reunion with the Rams might be a short one, and why we might not see Donald in uniform for a while. Maybe not even until the season opener against the Oakland Raiders on Sept. 10. Although there are major financial and free agency implications – not to mention risk – should Donald hold out for all of training camp only to report for the season opener without an extension.
But more on that in a bit.
The 70 million – probably more – represents the guaranteed money he’d endanger should he step foot on a practice field without a new contract and, heaven forbid, suffer a serious injury. That explains why he was a no-show during OTAs and why he’ll likely be a limited participant at minicamp.
Donald is scheduled to make $6.9 million next season, all of which he’d collect in the event of a serious injury. But he stands to earn millions upon millions more in guarantees upon agreeing to an extension, which undoubtedly will make him the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history. That’s a fact the Rams don’t just acknowledge, they will gladly it make happen in order to keep the dominant defensive linemen in their fold for the foreseeable future.
Knowing that – and the Rams have been consistent in their acknowledgment of the financial commitment they’re willing to make – it behooves Donald to be as careful as possible between now and putting pen to paper to make it all official.
The real question, of course, is why a new deal hasn’t already happened in spite of the Rams’ repeated vow to do right by Donald, and what appears to be a sincere willingness on both sides to arrive at an outcome that leaves everyone smiling at the celebratory news conference to announce it.
At the risk of being a bit simplistic: it’s complicated.
And much more nuanced than, as new Rams cornerback Marcus Peters (and a whole bunch of Rams fans) would say: “Pay the man!”
To the Rams and Donald’s camp’s credit, they’ve both kept a tight lid on negotiations. This hasn’t been a “he said, they said” situation at all. That’s usually a good sign that a happy ending is looming.
But it also leaves everyone else to do some detective work.
In doing some peripheral digging around, there are compelling reasons emerging to explain a lack of resolution.
But also why most, if not all, the leverage tilts decidedly in the direction of the Rams, as they hold his rights for at least the next three years and assume even greater leverage and control should Donald hold out beyond Aug. 8 and into the regular season.
One factor that could be delaying things is the Khalil Mack dynamic playing out in Oakland. Mack and Donald were both selected in the 2014 NFL draft, and both have developed into dominant defensive forces as they each enter the final year of their rookie contracts.
Donald, by all accounts, is the better player. In a fair world, he’ll end up with the bigger contract. And no one would blame him if, as some in the NFL suspect, he slow plays a resolution waiting on Mack to come to terms first, thus re-setting the market and allowing Donald to go back to the Rams and demand more.
The problem is, Mack is in a much better position to wait out Donald’s situation and use that deal as the basis for his new contract. Mack was drafted with the fifth pick to Donald’s 13th in 2014, and the financial difference could not be more vast as a result. Mack will make $13.9 million to Donald’s $6.9 million this season. So, as you can see, Mack is in a safer position to let this year play out and then use the free agency leverage of 31 other teams – and a potential new Donald deal – when negotiating with the Raiders.
It’s for those reasons – and others – that some in the NFL have speculated a new Mack deal might not happen before next year. If so, Donald could be in for a long wait – and assume incredible risk – if he puts too much credence on the Mack situation as it relates to his own.
But that isn’t the only factor holding up a resolution.
While it’s a given Donald will reset the market for defensive players, there hasn’t been a top-end deal done on that side of the ball since Von Miller’s 2016 contract with the Broncos. That means dynamics like total value of the contract and immediate and full guarantees – the guide posts and trail markers teams and agents typically follow to bridge one record-breaking deal to the next – are a bit outdated. Setting and agreeing to new ones adds to the difficulty.
What we do know is that Donald is almost certain to become the first non-quarterback to eclipse $20 million in annual pay. That would mean topping Miller’s $19,016,667 annual base salary and his $70 million in guarantees.
Would $21 million in yearly salary and $75 million in overall guarantees do it?
The conflict becomes: By how much is Donald seeking to set the new market, and is that a number the Rams are willing to pay? Keep in mind Brandin Cooks is on deck for a new contract and Todd Gurley, Marcus Peters and Jared Goff are waiting in the wings.
Keeping Donald in the fold while preserving room for all the others is of paramount importance.
But Donald plays a role in making that happen.
There’s been recent speculation within the NFL circles that Donald’s camp is looking beyond just a record-setting defensive contract while trying to lift him into the rarified air of top quarterback money.
That would mean somewhere between $23 million and $27 million in annual salary and upward to $80 million to $90 million in guarantees.
That would be unprecedented.
It would also explain a major delay in a deal being consummated.
Or, as one rival NFL executive suggested: “If this was just about being the highest-paid defensive player, it would have been done already.”
That said, it never hurts to ask, right? And if you’re Aaron Donald, there is still time to play with in order to get the kind of money – or close to it – you’re demanding without sacrificing anything of importance.
Although those days are rapidly coming to a close.
Whatever leverage he has comes to an end on Aug. 8, the deadline to preserve unrestricted free agent status at the end of the 2018 season or be downgraded to restricted. It’s a position Donald put himself in by holding out during training camp last year and losing an accrued season as a result. If he holds out again, he’d lose all rights to UFA at the end of the season.
And that means:
The Rams would preserve the right to use the franchise tag on him for 2019.
They’d also have the right of first refusal on any deal he agrees to with another team.
Or, in the event of not matching any offer, recoup a first-round pick.
And in a worst-case scenario for Donald, it would also mean potentially playing the 2019 season at roughly $7.4 million should he fail to secure a new deal with the Rams or another team and the Rams simply re-upped him at 110 percent of his 2018 salary.
It only gets worse if he holds out of games before the drop-dead deadline to preserve at least RFA status – the 10th game of the season – as that means absorbing fines and losing weekly paychecks. He’d have to be extraordinarily confident he could convince the Rams to eventually meet his demands to go that route. But really, how realistic is that?
So, as you can see, the little leverage Donald has right now is evaporating quickly.
It makes you wonder at what point he realizes he’s running out of cards to play. And how quickly $20 million and change in annual salary and $70 million or so in guarantees begin to look good enough.
There are approximately 80,000 reasons why Aaron Donald will report next week to the Rams’ mandatory minicamp in Thousand Oaks – that figure representing the amount of money the best defensive player in the NFL will lose to fines should he skip the three-day camp.
But there are more than 70 million reasons why his reunion with the Rams might be a short one, and why we might not see Donald in uniform for a while. Maybe not even until the season opener against the Oakland Raiders on Sept. 10. Although there are major financial and free agency implications – not to mention risk – should Donald hold out for all of training camp only to report for the season opener without an extension.
But more on that in a bit.
The 70 million – probably more – represents the guaranteed money he’d endanger should he step foot on a practice field without a new contract and, heaven forbid, suffer a serious injury. That explains why he was a no-show during OTAs and why he’ll likely be a limited participant at minicamp.
Donald is scheduled to make $6.9 million next season, all of which he’d collect in the event of a serious injury. But he stands to earn millions upon millions more in guarantees upon agreeing to an extension, which undoubtedly will make him the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history. That’s a fact the Rams don’t just acknowledge, they will gladly it make happen in order to keep the dominant defensive linemen in their fold for the foreseeable future.
Knowing that – and the Rams have been consistent in their acknowledgment of the financial commitment they’re willing to make – it behooves Donald to be as careful as possible between now and putting pen to paper to make it all official.
The real question, of course, is why a new deal hasn’t already happened in spite of the Rams’ repeated vow to do right by Donald, and what appears to be a sincere willingness on both sides to arrive at an outcome that leaves everyone smiling at the celebratory news conference to announce it.
At the risk of being a bit simplistic: it’s complicated.
And much more nuanced than, as new Rams cornerback Marcus Peters (and a whole bunch of Rams fans) would say: “Pay the man!”
To the Rams and Donald’s camp’s credit, they’ve both kept a tight lid on negotiations. This hasn’t been a “he said, they said” situation at all. That’s usually a good sign that a happy ending is looming.
But it also leaves everyone else to do some detective work.
In doing some peripheral digging around, there are compelling reasons emerging to explain a lack of resolution.
But also why most, if not all, the leverage tilts decidedly in the direction of the Rams, as they hold his rights for at least the next three years and assume even greater leverage and control should Donald hold out beyond Aug. 8 and into the regular season.
One factor that could be delaying things is the Khalil Mack dynamic playing out in Oakland. Mack and Donald were both selected in the 2014 NFL draft, and both have developed into dominant defensive forces as they each enter the final year of their rookie contracts.
Donald, by all accounts, is the better player. In a fair world, he’ll end up with the bigger contract. And no one would blame him if, as some in the NFL suspect, he slow plays a resolution waiting on Mack to come to terms first, thus re-setting the market and allowing Donald to go back to the Rams and demand more.
The problem is, Mack is in a much better position to wait out Donald’s situation and use that deal as the basis for his new contract. Mack was drafted with the fifth pick to Donald’s 13th in 2014, and the financial difference could not be more vast as a result. Mack will make $13.9 million to Donald’s $6.9 million this season. So, as you can see, Mack is in a safer position to let this year play out and then use the free agency leverage of 31 other teams – and a potential new Donald deal – when negotiating with the Raiders.
It’s for those reasons – and others – that some in the NFL have speculated a new Mack deal might not happen before next year. If so, Donald could be in for a long wait – and assume incredible risk – if he puts too much credence on the Mack situation as it relates to his own.
But that isn’t the only factor holding up a resolution.
While it’s a given Donald will reset the market for defensive players, there hasn’t been a top-end deal done on that side of the ball since Von Miller’s 2016 contract with the Broncos. That means dynamics like total value of the contract and immediate and full guarantees – the guide posts and trail markers teams and agents typically follow to bridge one record-breaking deal to the next – are a bit outdated. Setting and agreeing to new ones adds to the difficulty.
What we do know is that Donald is almost certain to become the first non-quarterback to eclipse $20 million in annual pay. That would mean topping Miller’s $19,016,667 annual base salary and his $70 million in guarantees.
Would $21 million in yearly salary and $75 million in overall guarantees do it?
The conflict becomes: By how much is Donald seeking to set the new market, and is that a number the Rams are willing to pay? Keep in mind Brandin Cooks is on deck for a new contract and Todd Gurley, Marcus Peters and Jared Goff are waiting in the wings.
Keeping Donald in the fold while preserving room for all the others is of paramount importance.
But Donald plays a role in making that happen.
There’s been recent speculation within the NFL circles that Donald’s camp is looking beyond just a record-setting defensive contract while trying to lift him into the rarified air of top quarterback money.
That would mean somewhere between $23 million and $27 million in annual salary and upward to $80 million to $90 million in guarantees.
That would be unprecedented.
It would also explain a major delay in a deal being consummated.
Or, as one rival NFL executive suggested: “If this was just about being the highest-paid defensive player, it would have been done already.”
That said, it never hurts to ask, right? And if you’re Aaron Donald, there is still time to play with in order to get the kind of money – or close to it – you’re demanding without sacrificing anything of importance.
Although those days are rapidly coming to a close.
Whatever leverage he has comes to an end on Aug. 8, the deadline to preserve unrestricted free agent status at the end of the 2018 season or be downgraded to restricted. It’s a position Donald put himself in by holding out during training camp last year and losing an accrued season as a result. If he holds out again, he’d lose all rights to UFA at the end of the season.
And that means:
The Rams would preserve the right to use the franchise tag on him for 2019.
They’d also have the right of first refusal on any deal he agrees to with another team.
Or, in the event of not matching any offer, recoup a first-round pick.
And in a worst-case scenario for Donald, it would also mean potentially playing the 2019 season at roughly $7.4 million should he fail to secure a new deal with the Rams or another team and the Rams simply re-upped him at 110 percent of his 2018 salary.
It only gets worse if he holds out of games before the drop-dead deadline to preserve at least RFA status – the 10th game of the season – as that means absorbing fines and losing weekly paychecks. He’d have to be extraordinarily confident he could convince the Rams to eventually meet his demands to go that route. But really, how realistic is that?
So, as you can see, the little leverage Donald has right now is evaporating quickly.
It makes you wonder at what point he realizes he’s running out of cards to play. And how quickly $20 million and change in annual salary and $70 million or so in guarantees begin to look good enough.
