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You are correct except that his arm isn't going forward, it is going at an angle from the line of scrimmage backwards. Before he brought the ball up to pass, his upper body got twisted and is pointing away from the line of scrimmage. So when he starts his throwing motion, it is not forward and then before his arm heads towards the line of scrimmage he fumbles it.From the video you posted, this is the point where his forward motion starts, and he still has control of the ball. The question on fumble vs. forward pass is whether the QB has control of the ball when his arm starts moving forward. If his arm is moving forward, even if the defender knocks it out of his hand before he completes his motion and the ball goes backwards, it's still a forward pass. If the defender jars it loose before the throwing motion starts moving forward, it's a fumble, even if the ball is propelled forward by the QB's throwing motion.
Now, if a QB intentionally throws the ball backwards, that's a different issue. But we're talking about a QB being hit by a defender as he's in the midst of his throwing motion. The rule has always been (as long as I remember) that it's a forward pass regardless of where the ball ends up if his arm is starting to move forward (even ever so slightly) with control of the ball. It's a fumble, regardless of where the ball ends up, if he loses control of the ball before the arm starts its forward movement.
That is the way I see it.
I think the thing that really sets me off, is when the refs are explaining their decision, they mention his intent. That cannot be part of the decision. The arm was going backwards or it wasn't. His intent means nothing. The explanation tells me they see the arm going backwards too.