fearsomefour
Legend
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2013
- Messages
- 17,614
Who knows if China contained it.Well, it was right before spring break.
The last night, Sunday the 15th, the damn place was packed and they stayed open until 2am for a cheerleader event.
Next day freaking Clearwater beach was packed and people are STILL going to travel to St Paddy's day places like Chicago and Boston even though those events are cancelled.
As is typical of my overdoing my research, let's just say that this is really bad. I'll tell anyone if they want to know, but yeah. I'm motivated in part to know more because I'm in the very highest risk category for this in that I've had multiple bouts of near fatal pneumonia, I have asthma, I have a compromised immune system AND I live in Florida where people keep dinosaurs for pets. I mean "Florida man" didn't just get that name for no reason beyond geography...
China nipped it in the bud, some say. How? Well, they issued a BRUTAL crackdown including quarantining 60M people and dragged people who showed symptoms to who knows where. People taken haven't returned.
Italy has a home quarantine and if you're out with symptoms, you can be jailed for 12 years. You can only go out to the supermarket or the doctor.
Spain is just starting to see cases explode, shut down the country and are instituting drastic measures. Most of the EU is closing their borders.
I would only ask a few things:
If this was all hysteria, would Wall Street be willing to see TRILLIONS of dollars vanish over hype? Would Disney suspend worldwide operations in their resort division which accounts for 37% of their revenue during a holiday season (spring/easter break)? Would every sports league AROUND THE WORLD halt operations if this was "just a cold"?
Also, remember, the ONLY places they've adequately contained the virus have all instituted SEVERE measures restricting movement and in Italy's case, the Drs in ERs are having to do battlefield triage and determining who gets ventilators and thus, who lives and dies because they didn't act quickly enough.
Seeing as we aren't restricting travel, many people are still going to work and people are STILL gathering in large places in close proximity... yeah.
I've been doing some basic math based on exposure modeling, actual infection rates including community spread, who are the carriers vs who suffer the most from infection and mortality rates based on a number of factors.
This is an appropriate reaction:
Remember, this is from the pattern guy who is willing to give bad news. I don't want to be right, but the math is the math.
Anyway, whether it's Captain Tripps or Wuhan-400 or just COVID-19, it's super serious. Please everyone take every precaution.
Also... I knew it would happen, but I miss Brockers already. Good guy. He should do very well in Baltimore.
They tried to suppress it initially.
At any rate with approximately 160,000 ventilators in the US the potential for a completely overwhelmed (and sick) health care (hospitals and workers) system.
It is what it is.
Very difficult to prepare for anything like this because of the unknowns.....where and how etc.
The numbers with a 2.5% death rate are scary for sure.
One thing, logic would tell us it has been here for awhile. I am convinced this is the second go round with this. I know several people, including myself, that have been sick in the recent past with symptoms that check most of the boxes, although in a mild form. My mother had many symptoms (has COPD) and ended up on a ventilator for a day or two in the hospital in early January.
The EU is just now closing borders.....they have been slow to react, like all top heavy entities.
My work is offering unlimited overtime.
Assigned me 2.75 hours a day of OT starting tomorrow and 8 hours of OT on Saturday.
The market doesn’t close because the results aren’t good. I wonder if it will be closed at some point...can’t come soon enough.
It stands to reason we will be season a large up tick in cases. Also, once there is a leveling off or a downward trend I think there will be a second uptick as people go back to being less observant about things.
The last large (in terms of death toll) flu virus in the US was in 1918 killing about 700,000. This could rise to that level quite easily. Or, could be more in line with H1N1 which tallied 12,500 deaths.
Time will tell.
Only so much one can do.