I don't see Tesla surviving.
Tesla and electronic cars are the future.
It’s not like electricity is fueled by air.
I have been following Tesla for some time now... would NEVER buy stock.
It's fascinating... the stock price is driven almost totally on emotion and promises made by Elon Musk (who, BTW, is an excellent salesperson).
Looking solely at "normal" metrics (revenue, income, debt, production), the stock price has no correlation at all.
The company has never sniffed a profit... and is burning through cash like there's no tomorrow:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-through-8-000-every-minute-amid-model-3-woes
The company is in a very precarious position right now. The Model 3, their lowest priced model that is aimed at the masses, has got to come through for them to have any chance at profitability and improve cash flows.
But, they have missed production targets by country miles:
http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-delays-model-3-production-target-again-2018-1
Somewhere in the first quarter of 2018, they will need to issue more debt to be able to continue producing Model 3's... but it's existing debt is in jeopardy of being downgraded (severely):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckj...could-go-farther-into-the-ditch/#2ef61fbf4205
Then, there's quality concerns:
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-tesla-quality-20171114-story.html
Add all the above red flags together, and then consider the significant progress and projections from existing, well known car manufacturers:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...uture-of-electric-cars-many-models-few-buyers
So... while electric cars are definitely the future, IMO Tesla will not be the frontrunner. In fact, IMO, there's a very good possibility they may not be around, come 2020. I see the "big boys" crushing Tesla "like the cockroach it is" (quote from Mr. Wonderful
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).
My take:
Poor management, too many missed production targets, quality control and - most importantly - competition, will put Tesla Motors out of business within the next two years.
Short selling remains high on the stock, but the short sellers are getting burned on the emotion uplift that remains in place. Miss enough targets and investor confidence will overwhelm the emotion and the stock will tank.
You heard it here first, folks...