MMQB" 12 predictions on who will get paid and who won't

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http://mmqb.si.com/2015/02/12/nfl-o...wn-lynch-tom-brady-peyton-manning-dez-bryant/

The MMQB Illustration

A New Season Begins
The official start of the offseason marks the transition from “we time” to “me time” for NFL players. Here are 12 offseason predictions about who will get paid, who won’t, and how ongoing controversies will be resolved
By Andrew Brandt

As we enter the official start of the NFL offseason—the longest offseason in all of pro sports—we move from “we time” to “me time.” The season is about sacrificing for the greater good, but the offseason is when players make decisions that are best for them and their actual family, rather than their “team family.” As we begin the offseason, here are a dozen takes on how I project the business of football to play out in 2015:

Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck will set a new standard for NFL contracts. The present threshold—$20 million per year, with $60 million guaranteed—was set by Drew Brees in 2012, and the class of 2013 contracts (Romo, Rodgers, Ryan and Flacco) hovered just below that threshold. It’s time for a market adjustment, and we’ll see it with two quarterbacks who have become the signature players for their teams.

More interesting than the numbers, though, will be the structure of guarantees in these contracts. There is a unique and potentially groundbreaking opportunity here: fully guaranteed contracts. As transcendent players barely in their mid-twenties, these two have the opportunity to demand that all five or six years of a contract be guaranteed. It is on the Colts and Seahawks to justify not doing so.

Speaking of the Seahawks….

Marshawn Lynch will get a nice raise for 2015 but have no guaranteed money beyond this year. Lynch’s low rumbles of discontent during training camp last summer forced a short-term upgrade, which he will do again this year, perhaps even with non-guaranteed years added to the contract. With all the concerns about expiration dates on running backs, I can’t see the Seahawks locking themselves into Lynch beyond this year.

Speaking of running backs…

DeMarco Murray, after shopping his services to a lukewarm marketplace, returns to the Cowboys for a team-friendly contract. As I have often noted, Murray’s strong production may have actually hurt his contract value, with teams more focused on future rather than past performance. Indeed, free-agent running backs with less tread on the tire—think Ryan Matthews and Justin Forsett—may actually procure better contracts. As for the Cowboys, they have clearly prioritized Dez Bryant ahead of Murray all along.

Speaking of Bryant…

Dez Bryant, after being saddled with the franchise tag in February, will complete a striking contract extension with the Cowboys prior to the July 15 deadline. The Cowboys will unsuccessfully attempt to apply their team-friendly structure used with Tyron Smith before relenting and paying Bryant a top-of-market contract. And if they need salary cap room, the Cowboys will continue to refinance the most heavily mortgaged contract in the NFL, quarterback Tony Romo’s.

Speaking of quarterbacks….

Tom Brady will not play for the scheduled $8 million in his contract. When Brady reworked his contract two years ago, reshaping 2013 and 2014 for cap purposes (while receiving $3 million for his trouble), I never trusted that the 2015-17 “out years” of $7, $8, and $9 million (now $8, $9 and $10 million). I expect another “adjustment” of this deal. If, however, Brady is playing quarterback for the Patriots for $8 million, $11 million less than Peyton Manning will be making this year, I will completely buy into the “sacrifice” narrative and bow down to his altruism.

Speaking of Manning…

Peyton Manning will return to the Broncos to play (at least) another season.Manning’s 2015 salary of $19 million becomes fully guaranteed on March 9, the day before the 2015 League Year begins. Although the party line is that Manning is taking his time to decide, I sense his return is inevitable after the disappointing end to the playoffs. The hiring of Gary Kubiak can only be seen as a positive for Manning. I believe he’ll be back.

Speaking of coming back….

Darrelle Revis will be back with the Patriots, although not for the scheduled $20 million in his contract. This option year was put into his contract as a placeholder for the team while it tries to negotiate a new deal. Interestingly, Revis was scheduled to make $16 million last year and this year from the Buccaneers ($4 million more than he made with the Patriots) before being released by Tampa just one year into a five-year contract. After winning the Super Bowl, Revis will once again opt for less money and play for the Patriots, who will not be the highest bidder for his services.

Speaking of going to the highest bidder…

Ndamokung Suh has played his last down for the Lions; a business decision to leverage the multiple bidders he will have. His contract will surpass J.J. Watt’s $51 million guaranteed—using the same agent—into the $55 million echelon usually reserved for elite quarterbacks. And after scratching and clawing to retain their two other franchise players, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, the $26.7 million franchise tag price for the Lions to retain Suh is prohibitive.

Speaking of the tag…

The franchise tag will continue to be a valuable management weapon to remove top players from free agency. The new CBA increased its strength by changing the tag calculation from the average of the previous year’s top five salaries per position to a formula based, in part, on the average of those salaries from the previous five years. Players such as Dez Bryant, Julius (or Demaryius) Thomas, Justin Houston and Devin McCourty are vulnerable to their teams deciding to “date” them for another year rather than marrying them, thus keeping the option open to moving on.

Speaking of moving on…

Adrian Peterson and Greg Hardy will separate from the Vikings and Panthers, respectively, after both were seen as radioactive and hastily sent away with pay last season. The Vikings do not seem interested in paying what Peterson is scheduled to make ($13 million) and Peterson has trust issues with a front office that he feels hasn’t sufficiently supported him. Hardy is a free agent whose status is pending after criminal charges in his domestic violence case were dismissed this week. But after paying Hardy $13.1 million for participating in one game last season and bringing negative repute to the franchise, the Panthers appear ready to allow Hardy to enter what may be an active marketplace when free agency opens.

Speaking of preparing for free agency…

There will be blood. Before the splashy free agent signings during the week of March 10, dozens of players will be released from team payrolls, most with no remaining compensation due. And some of the players who are terminated— their contracts, not them—were first-day marquee free-agent signings in the not-so-distant past (Michael Oher, who signed a $20 million contract with the Titans eleven months ago, is now an ex-Titan who made just $6 million). Before we get to March 10, the waiver wire will be Exhibit A as to the dangerous waters of free agency. Tens of millions of dollars will be removed from team payrolls.

And speaking of deflated payrolls…

Deflategate will end with a whimper. The Wells investigation will be thorough and comprehensive (and quite expensive) but without a “gotcha” moment or a smoking gun. Rather, the investigation will spur deeper discussion—among the Competition Committee and in general—on all measures that teams take to gain a competitive edge, either within or teetering just on the fine line rules. As coinciding investigations into the Falcons’ artificial noise and the Browns’ in-game texting will suggest, the time is ripe for a larger conversation about integrity and where to draw the line on what constitutes an allowable competitive edge. I will have more on this to come.

Welcome to my season—the offseason—in which the business of football trumps the game of football. Hold on, it will be a bumpy and an eventful ride, but I’ll get you through it.

 

[Boffo97]

Tom Brady will not play for the scheduled $8 million in his contract. When Brady reworked his contract two years ago, reshaping 2013 and 2014 for cap purposes (while receiving $3 million for his trouble), I never trusted that the 2015-17 “out years” of $7, $8, and $9 million (now $8, $9 and $10 million). I expect another “adjustment” of this deal. If, however, Brady is playing quarterback for the Patriots for $8 million, $11 million less than Peyton Manning will be making this year, I will completely buy into the “sacrifice” narrative and bow down to his altruism.

But I was told when he did that, he was just doing it for pure generosity, and why can't Bradford do that, and bleeble blazzle blozzle!

 

[blue4]

Let's have a show of hands who give back their days wages when they goof off on the internet or nap when waiting on parts etc. No one? Okay who gives money back or agrees to half salary because of getting hurt at work? Still no one?

Edit: Perhaps that was overly sarcastic for 8 am.

 

[Boffo97]

Let's have a show of hands who give back their days wages when they goof off on the internet or nap when waiting on parts etc. No one? Okay who gives money back or agrees to half salary because of getting hurt at work? Still no one?

Edit: Perhaps that was overly sarcastic for 8 am.

Yeah, it's just like those who criticize players who move to a different team would themselves take a higher paying or more promising job in a second.

 

[Mackeyser]

Well, I had a contract to do a month's worth of computer work (22 work days). I finished in 7. Spent the 8th tidying up my desk and helping my supervisor clear his "to do" list and went to the boss and essentially "gave back" the other 14 days, even though the company had budgeted for them and were willing to pay to have me sit around and be "on call" to help with whatever for the remaining 3 weeks.

I said "no" because they paid me to do a job and I'd finished that job and it cost them less money than they'd budgeted... so, I guess I gave them the money back by not taking the free contract time. Had they prepaid me, I absolutely would have given the money back. No question. Considering I was on a 30 day contract, it's kinda semantics, I guess.

The agency that sent me out nearly fired me, but it was the referral I got from that job that led to by far the best professional accomplishment of my life...

Then again, I also turned down a job that would have paid me a million dollars in stock and cash in the first year alone because I couldn't reconcile the work environment with my personal and religious principles. Never regretted it for a minute.

That said, I don't judge folks for NOT doing that because having done it, I fully understand what goes into making such a hard choice. Most folks who've never given back money or turned down large sums of money don't understand the stresses and dynamics of those kinds of decision making situations (I turned down the big job with 4 babies at home and I was unemployed at the time. Only for a total of two weeks, but no job with babies is really, really no job...)

We like for people to make decisions that benefit us as fans... and I'm sure that we wonder "what are they going to do with all that money?

Well, if any of them suffer later from any debilitating illnesses like ALS, early onset dementia or Alzheimer's, then you'd be freakin' AMAZED how much money those illnesses can burn through. And that doesn't even begin to mention just the run of the mill mechanical stuff like back surgeries, joint replacements, physical therapy, expensive prescriptions and so on...

Look at a guy like Danny Amendola. He's had a bunch of concussions. Think he's made enough money? He's made millions, but who knows? Even if he saved every penny, he could still die penniless at 40 in a hospital bed of a death that is beyond cringeworthy.

I'm not saying every player should be a completely mercenary a-hole. Not at all.

I'm just saying that for those playing such a violent game, it doesn't MAKE them an a-hole for them to look at their future long term and to look at their time in the NFL as a business opportunity. Of course they want to win games. That said, MOST player's careers are pretty short, while the damage will be forever. The HOPE is that the money earned will not only exceed the cost of dealing with the damage, but afford a better quality of life going forward.

We don't slam accountants for switching firms...

"FREAK YOU, Sheldon! Now we're a person short in the Returns department and it's TAX SEASON! No one knows deductibles like you...dammit!"

So, if the Rams and Sam or whomever can work it out...awesome. If not, then they can't.

I want the Rams to win. If I didn't, I wouldn't post on multiple Rams sites. That said, I'm not ever going to begrudge a person from going into the marketplace and maximizing his or her earning power.

 

[Mojo Ram]

I could see Adrian Peterson going to Arizona. Someone needs to cockblock that move if it happens.

 

[-X-]

If I didn't, I wouldn't post on multiple Rams sites.

Slut.

 

[JRobinson]

Enjoyable read for me. Thanks