Los Angeles Rams; Bill Barnwell ESPN Staff Writer Projected 2018 over/under: 9.5 wins

[tomas]

If your friend tells you that they knew the Rams were going to break out in 2017, keep in mind that their Vegas over/under before Week 1 was at six wins with heavy juice (-160) on the under. Very few people saw this year's 11-5 breakout coming, and while the Rams are returning many of their big names, their secondary will be a question mark if they can't resign [URL='http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/14989/trumaine-johnson']Trumaine Johnson and Lamarcus Joyner. The Rams also have to figure out whether to retain Sammy Watkins, who was their fourth target in the passing game this past season, and they are missing their second-round pick in the draft. Sean McVay's team improved by seven wins over their 2016 total; since 1989, teams that have jumped by seven or more wins in a given year declined by nearly four wins the following season.[/URL]
http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/lar/los-angeles-rams
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22146300/predicting-2018-vegas-win-totals-all-32-nfl-teams-unders-season#LAR

The Year I Built a Team -Jeff Fisher-

 

[DaveFan'51]

I don't see the Rams Winning Fewer games in 2018! And I don't give-a-Shit about past History win it comes to Football!!

 

[Rmfnlt]

http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angele...d-at-all-by-success-of-case-keenum-nick-foles

Wow!

Why Case Keenum and Nick Foles failed with the Rams
Jan 19, 2018

• Alden GonzalezESPN Staff Writer

LOS ANGELES -- Jeff Fisher has somehow emerged as a central figure in the buildup to the NFC Championship Game. Three of the quarterbacks who will be in uniform at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday have previously played for him. The two starters, Case Keenum of the Minnesota Vikings and Nick Foles of the Philadelphia Eagles, were employed by the same Fisher-led Los Angeles Rams as recently as 18 months ago.

Fair or not, the success of Keenum and Foles -- much like the triumph of first-year Rams head coach Sean McVay -- is yet another crushing indictment on Fisher, who during his tenure with the Rams could never do much with the two quarterbacks who now sit one win away from the Super Bowl.

Keenum went 7-7 with 13 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 37 Total QBR under Fisher, but has gone 14-11 with 34 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and a 61 Total QBR without him.

Foles went 4-7 with seven touchdowns, 10 interceptions and a 29 Total QBR under Fisher, but has gone 19-11 with 56 touchdowns, 19 interceptions and a 57 Total QBR without him.

the exhilarating, unforgettable play that defeated the New Orleans Saints with no time remaining in last Sunday's divisional round. Foles replaced an injured Carson Wentz in Week 14 and has effectively managed games while helping the Eagles win three out of four, even while generally unspectacular.

Fisher, speaking on NBC Sports' Pro Football Talk on Wednesday, said he is "not surprised" by their success.

"Credit goes to both the organizations from the standpoint of realizing how important it is to have a quality backup quarterback," Fisher told host Mike Florio. "Both Nick and Case entered the same scenario -- at the start of the season, they were backups. They both are experienced, they've won games, they've played tough opponents, they've won games against good opponents. I'm not surprised at all."

On March 10, 2015, Fisher's then-St. Louis Rams added both of them. Keenum was reacquired from the Houston Texans, while Foles came over from Philadephia in the trade that sent Sam Bradford -- the former Vikings starter who now is serving as Keenum's backup -- to the Eagles.

Jared Goff's, mere footnotes in a dark time through Rams history.

Fisher complimented the work ethic of Keenum and Foles on Pro Football Talk, saying: "Both of these guys park at the parking lot at the facility and run into the building because they're so excited to come to work. There's energy, and they bring it. And that's why they're both playing in the championship game right now."

Some would say they're also playing in it because they're no longer shackled by the unimaginative offenses that Fisher had long overseen.

 

[Merlin]

I think right around 10 wins is a nice over/under. So 9.5 is fine.

If the Rams improve their defense, they will absolutely finish over ten wins. Basically a sub-19ppg season ensures that, because their offense on top of that will be plenty strong to ensure the win total.

IMO they're going to win somewhere from 9 to 13 games next year. Injuries (which you can't predict) and defensive adjustments will dictate how many.

 

[psxpaul]

since 1989, teams that have jumped by seven or more wins in a given year declined by nearly four wins the following season

That's an interesting stat, but I don't think the 2016 Rams were a normal 4 win team. Teams always have a tough season following a move. They always had 6 or 7 wins under Fisher, except for 2016. I don't think the talent level really dropped from 2015 to 2016...

I do think the Rams were extremely lucky this year with injuries, so a little bit of a set back next year is to be expected. This off season they should really focus on depth.

 

[Jacobarch]

I don't expect our offense to have the success that it did this year. Teams are going to adjust to our scheme and figure out our tendencies. Coaches are too smart in this league to let 30ppg happen every week. But then again you never know, maybe we'll be even better next year. :yess:

I do expect our Defense to improve tho, with guys coming back to the 3-4 there will be no learning curve this year and plugging in a couple new faces in areas of need. DL and ILB.
OLB might be better next year with Quinn finally getting the hang of the position towards the middle of the season. I expect him to have double digit sacks next year if he's retained.

 

[PhillyRam]

I don't expect our offense to have the success that it did this year. Teams are going to adjust to our scheme and figure out our tendencies. Coaches are too smart in this league to let 30ppg happen every week. But then again you never know, maybe we'll be even better next year. :yess:

I do expect our Defense to improve tho, with guys coming back to the 3-4 there will be no learning curve this year and plugging in a couple new faces in areas of need. DL and ILB.
OLB might be better next year with Quinn finally getting the hang of the position towards the middle of the season. I expect him to have double digit sacks next year if he's retained.

The plus of having such a young HC is that he is more likely to evolve and change than an older coach. So I would expect to see a lot of new wrinkles next year especially as his QB gains more experience and is more comfortable adding more mental responsibilities.

 

[bubbaramfan]

How in God's name can anyone with a brain make a prediction at this time of year? Before we know what players with contracts needing to be signed, get signed or let walk, what FA's might get signed, and what players get drafted?

Way too early to make any predictions.

 

[fearsomefour]

I cashed in my over win bet from last year.
Unfortunately I rolled it into the Rams winning the NFC.

 

[thirteen28]

I don't expect our offense to have the success that it did this year. Teams are going to adjust to our scheme and figure out our tendencies. Coaches are too smart in this league to let 30ppg happen every week. But then again you never know, maybe we'll be even better next year. :yess:

While I will acknowledge my homer-ism up front, I won't be the slightest bit surprised if the offense is better next year. There are a number of factors to consider:

1) Goff will get better. This was his first season in a real NFL offense (I don't count the aptly-named middle school offense of 2016). As good as he looked, he is still a few years away from his peak. This should excite the ever-loving shinola out of Rams fans.

2) Tight Ends. We all know about how McVay likes his tight ends. He didn't get the production out of them that he wanted to this year, and that will be a point of emphasis going into next year. I think Everett has a very high ceiling, but he was just a rookie this year in a position that is tough on rookies. I think it's reasonable to expect more improvement from Higbee as well, as this was also his first year in a real NFL offense.

3) If we keep Sammy Watkins, I'm sure his production will get better. He came to the Rams very late in the offseason, and never had the chance to fully get on the same page with Goff as did Woods and Kupp.

4) McVay himself. He's demonstrated his own ability to adjust with what he did with the Rams. During his last season in Washington, the offense was in 12 personnel a significant amount of time. But he had Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis. With the Rams, having two very young TE's in Higbee and Everett, he didn't try to force the issue, and the Rams offense relied more on 11 personnel. Or to put it more succinctly, he adapted. I have no doubt he will adapt again.

5) Historical precedent. We love to talk about how good the 1999 Rams offense was, but if you look at the numbers at least, the 2000 Rams were even better on offense in their second year of the Martz system. They sometimes get overlooked because they didn't win a Super Bowl (in large part because the defense was historically bad). But man, that team was ridiculous on offense ... Faulk was MVP and set a (since broken) record for TD's scored in a season, Bruce was still Bruce but Holt was much better in his second year after a pretty good rookie campaign ... and despite losing our starting QB for a stretch, out backup (himself starting caliber) did not miss a beat. That year was the top scoring year of the GSOT.

In summary, it's not unreasonable to expect this offense to get better. Yes, we need some luck on the injury front (KNOCK ON WOOD EVERYBODY). But just as defenses adjust, so can McVay and the Rams.

 

[Ramon Ram]

Schedule is a bear so the 9.5 is spot on without knowing personnel

 

[Rmfnlt]

Goff will get better.

Not to be a Debbie Downer... but there is such a thing as the "sophomore jinx"
Teams have plenty of tape on him now... they know what causes him discomfort.
I'm not saying he'll regress... but it is possible.

Tight Ends

I agree with this. McVay really didn't get these guys as involved as I think he would have liked... probably beacuse of the inexperience. Having at least one year under their belts, increased usage of the TEs could be a wrinkle opposing DCs weren't thinking that much about.

If we keep Sammy Watkins

I dunno.... just not that big of a fan. Yeah, he was productive in the red zone and all... but I'm never gonna get 100% behind a player that takes plays off. If he's back, I hope it's on an economical, one year, prove it deal.
I think the Rams could find a way to replace his production if he doesn't return.
And, as I've said, if he hadn't picked up the playbook by that last quarter of the season, I have to wonder about his intelligence.

McVay himself

I don't know how many new tricks he might have up his sleeve... but I do believe he's imaginative andwill spend every waking moment this off season devising new ways to score. Will they work? I dunno.
But there is one thig that I know won't change:
He will always have the team prepared and motivated... and disciplined. Do those things, and you always have a chance. Don't do those things, and you're Jeff Fisher.

Historical precedent

I think it's a stretch to compare this team to the GSOT. The GSOT was a once-in-a-lifetime, special team. At least for me, it will never be duplicated.

KNOCK ON WOOD EVERYBODY)

I'm knocking on wood that the team comes out next year, picking up where this year ended. No regression.

I hate it but... I'm still nervous... I'll be very nervous before that first game next year. Just too many let-downs over the past 15 years... I think if they have another year like this year, the nervousness will subside.

 

[nighttrain]

Enjoy the ride amigo, it's a great time to be a Rams fan
train

 

[thirteen28]

Not to be a Debbie Downer... but there is such a thing as the "sophomore jinx"
Teams have plenty of tape on him now... they know what causes him discomfort.
I'm not saying he'll regress... but it is possible.

Sure they will. But Goff has that film too. And he has a very good HC who also has that film. I seriously doubt Goff is going to rest on his laurels from this season, that's just not in his character. He'll look at his weaknesses just as much as potential opponents will, and he'll work on fixing them.

I dunno.... just not that big of a fan. Yeah, he was productive in the red zone and all... but I'm never gonna get 100% behind a player that takes plays off. If he's back, I hope it's on an economical, one year, prove it deal.
I think the Rams could find a way to replace his production if he doesn't return.
And, as I've said, if he hadn't picked up the playbook by that last quarter of the season, I have to wonder about his intelligence.

It's an assumption, not a fact that he didn't pick up the playbook. But it is a fact that he spent zero time in the offseason working with Goff - quite unlike Woods and Kupp - because Watkins assumed he'd be catching passes from Tyrod Taylor. It's not any surprise that a young, still developing QB like Goff favored the other two over Watkins. Familiarity matters a lot between QB's and WR's, which is one reason why WR's traded during the season (or just prior to) don't usually make a big impact in their first year with a new team.

I can understand (and agree) with your point on the economics of bringing him back. Obviously, if he wants a long term deal with #1 WR money, then we need to look elsewhere. We need a shorter term deal that works for both sides and gives Watkins a chance to earn the long term deal. I have little doubt that he can, particularly now that defenses will have to pay more attention to Woods and Kupp - and that doesn't even factor in the potential growth of our tight ends.

I don't know how many new tricks he might have up his sleeve... but I do believe he's imaginative andwill spend every waking moment this off season devising new ways to score. Will they work? I dunno.
But there is one thig that I know won't change:
He will always have the team prepared and motivated... and disciplined. Do those things, and you always have a chance. Don't do those things, and you're Jeff Fisher.

From everything we've heard about McVay, he eats, lives, and breathes football. I have absolutely no worries at all that he's going to spend this offseason in his own little football laboratory devising new ways to torture and torch opposing defenses.

His transition from being the Redskins OC to Rams HC is a testament to what he can do. He had to adapt to an entirely different roster, and to say he was successful is an understatement akin to saying his girlfriend is sort of good looking. He turned Goff into a bona fide NFL QB. He got Gurley back on track in the ground game, while turning him into a receiving weapon that opposing D's not only have to respect, but fear. He made Robert Woods look like much, much more than a possession receiver as he was billed when he came here. He got excellent production out of a rookie WR who ended up setting some team records for rookie WR's.

There isn't much reason to believe these trends won't continue.

I think it's a stretch to compare this team to the GSOT. The GSOT was a once-in-a-lifetime, special team. At least for me, it will never be duplicated.

Not explicitly comparing this team to the GSOT, but instead noting that the GSOT got better in its second year, despite the fact that teams had plenty of film on them from 1999.

I'm knocking on wood that the team comes out next year, picking up where this year ended. No regression.

I hate it but... I'm still nervous... I'll be very nervous before that first game next year. Just too many let-downs over the past 15 years... I think if they have another year like this year, the nervousness will subside.

I can understand where you are coming from, and it took me a bit of time to believe in this team because of the last 15 or so. But I really think the franchise turned a corner in 2017. Have faith.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Tougher schedule next season, so for now i'm at 10 wins, but will adjust this up or down based on free agency and the draft. The 49'ers will be our chief competitor for the NFC West crown.
Unlike some others, I don't Franchise tag Sammy Watkins, ... $10.mil per for 4 or 5 years is a fair contract offer imo. I don't go out of my way to spend in free agency or draft high for a #1 WR replacement either, I go with Reynolds for a year and spend that extra money by enhancing those other free agents at positions where we'll be looking to fill or improve. At this point I start seriously considering adding a free agent OG like Andrew Norwell to help Goff & Gurley as well as the remaining receivers. jmo.