Kiper’s top draft “misses”. Yours?

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CGI_Ram

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Me of recent FAIL: Tavon Austin, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez (non Ram). I liked all those guys, a lot.


5 Times Mel Kiper Jr Was Embarrassingly Wrong About NFL Draft Prospects

Anyone who calls themselves a draft analyst owes a great deal of respect to ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., as he popularized the art and helped push the trade on the masses. Having said that, even the OG of amateur draft scouting has some mind-numbingly bad predictions and takes.

There are too many honorable mentions to name, but some noteworthy ones include naming Seattle Seahawks flop Aaron Curry the top player in the 2009 draft, saying Detroit Lions bust Andre Ware would be an "excellent quarterback", and ranking Dan McGwire and Brett Favre evenly as prospects in the 1991 draft. Even with Kiper's long list of flops, these five stand out as the worst takes he's ever had.

5. Johnny Manziel, 2014

The Manziel hype was real despite the fact he lacked ideal size, arm strength, and pocket presence, to say nothing of his attitude. Kiper, however, bought in to Manziel, asserting that he should be picked No. 1 overall by the Houston Texans. The Texans got a few Pro Bowls out of Jadeveon Clowney with the No. 1 pick, while Manziel became the next name to find his way into the Cleveland quarterback graveyard after two subpar seasons with the Browns.

4. Mike Williams, 2005

Lions president Matt Millen famously had his heart set on Demarcus Ware in the 2005 draft, but changed his mind just minutes before Detroit was set to pick and grabbed USC receiver Mike Williams after he sat out the entire 2004 season. Kiper loved the pick, declaring Williams a "Hall of Famer" before he ever played a single game. Williams recorded just 37 catches in two years with the Lions, as his lack of great speed made him one of the most high-profile busts from the Millen era in Detroit. Certainly not a Hall of Famer.

3. Akili Smith, 1999

Donovan McNabb was a superb pick, but the 1999 draft unfortunately brought us busts like Tim Couch, Cade McNown, and Cincinnati Bengals flop Akili Smith in the first round. Kiper declared the former Oregon quarterback would be a "great NFL player" after some tremendous pre-draft workouts, but Smith's athleticism couldn't make up for poor understanding of the playbook and accuracy. He threw just five touchdowns against 13 picks in four years as a pro, which moves him into all-time bad bust territory. Maybe he should have stuck with baseball.

2. Andre Wadsworth, 1998

In this draft, Kiper had Ryan Leaf ranked fourth overall on his big board and that wasn't his worst take that year. While Leaf and Peyton Manning figured to be the first two off the board, most thought Michigan's Charles Woodson, a Hall of Famer, was the next best player in the draft. Kiper, however, asserted the No. 1 player in the draft was Florida State defensive end Andre Wadsworth, who went third overall to the Arizona Cardinals while Woodson went fourth. Knee injuries limited Wadsworth to just eight sacks and 36 games in three years, cementing him as one of the biggest busts of all time. Oops.

1. Jimmy Clausen, 2010

Perhaps his most famous bad take, Kiper declared that if Clausen, a former top recruit and star at Notre Dame who fell to the second round of the NFL draft, was not a successful NFL quarterback within seven years, he would retire. Clausen was the furthest thing from successful. He won just one of his 10 starts in Carolina, throwing three touchdowns against nine picks while completing only 52 percent of his passes. Luckily for the Panthers. Clausen's awful year allowed them to select Cam Newton with the No. 1 pick in 2011. Clausen was a backup with the Bears and Ravens before leaving football in 2015.
 

Memento

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Ra'Shede Hageman, Kelvin Benjamin, Matt Elam, Justin Hunter, etc.

Those are just a few of my draft misses, haha.
 
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Merlin

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Kiper will always have my respect. Not an easy thing to be one of the guys who pioneer draft analysis, especially stacking a board yourself without the resources teams have. Him and Buchsbaum both for that matter.

Yeah he missed some. Haven't we all? :D
 

Akrasian

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I wouldn't put Wadsworth in with the others. Injuries happen. The other four were basically trainwrecks waiting to happen, especially Manziel - who needed everything to go right in order to even stick, but was known to be a headcase on top of his below average physical talent.
 

Ramon Ram

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Lawrence Phillips and Eddie Kennison in the same draft. While Kennison wasn't that bad, we passed on Eddie George and Marvin Harrison, ouch.
But if we took George then we don't trade for Faulk so I guess it worked out though Marvin would have looked great in horns.
 

den-the-coach

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Vernon Gholston...Now I'm not in the league of @jrry32 @OldSchool or @Memphis Ram when it comes to drafting or others as there are too many posters to mentioned, but when it comes to the Ohio State Buckeyes and that I've been blessed to watch every game they have played for a long period of time a pure defensive end Vernon Gholston to me was the best pure pass rusher that the Buckeyes had produced in a very long time and although there were some that questioned the pick, I knew better.

Gholston was amazing not only sacking the Quarterback, but also was solid against the run and even though I felt he was a better 4-3 DE, I didn't think playing in Rex Ryan's 3-4 would be an issue and I was wrong. All of us have been wrong before, but I loved Gholston in Scarlet & Gray and was shocked he was not a perennial all pro. Gholston even had shot with the Rams, but at that point, I knew I had been dead wrong about someone I had seen on every Saturday and thus admitting in this post....I was actually wrong!
1586135202370.png
 
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jrry32

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My list of failures is about as long as my list of successes. To name a few: Tavon Austin, Sam Bradford, Connor Cook, Trent Richardson, Jameis Winston, Robert Griffin III, Scooby Wright, Barrett Jones, etc.
 

den-the-coach

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My list of failures is about as long as my list of successes. To name a few: Tavon Austin, Sam Bradford, Connor Cook, Trent Richardson, Jameis Winston, Robert Griffin III, Scooby Wright, Barrett Jones, etc.

IDK, hard not to think Scooby Wright was not going to be good based on name alone, but all of us knew Connor Cook was going to be a bust because none of his teammates attended his birthday party....However, who knew that Cook was ahead of his time practicing social distancing.
 

rdlkgliders

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My list of failures is about as long as my list of successes. To name a few: Tavon Austin, Sam Bradford, Connor Cook, Trent Richardson, Jameis Winston, Robert Griffin III, Scooby Wright, Barrett Jones, etc.
Jury is still out for me on JW. Generally by now I would have a clearer assessment. I know he turned the ball over at an alarming rate but he also had the hardest relationship of time to throw/protection breakdowns and route success rate with some metric that calculates these parameters along with receiver separation. I actually saw something last season and if he can play in a system less dependent on him going wild west while he also matures in regards to recklessness he may still yet be a quality mid pack or better
QB.
 

So Ram

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Me of recent FAIL: Tavon Austin, Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez (non Ram). I liked all those guys, a lot.


5 Times Mel Kiper Jr Was Embarrassingly Wrong About NFL Draft Prospects

Anyone who calls themselves a draft analyst owes a great deal of respect to ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., as he popularized the art and helped push the trade on the masses. Having said that, even the OG of amateur draft scouting has some mind-numbingly bad predictions and takes.

There are too many honorable mentions to name, but some noteworthy ones include naming Seattle Seahawks flop Aaron Curry the top player in the 2009 draft, saying Detroit Lions bust Andre Ware would be an "excellent quarterback", and ranking Dan McGwire and Brett Favre evenly as prospects in the 1991 draft. Even with Kiper's long list of flops, these five stand out as the worst takes he's ever had.

5. Johnny Manziel, 2014

The Manziel hype was real despite the fact he lacked ideal size, arm strength, and pocket presence, to say nothing of his attitude. Kiper, however, bought in to Manziel, asserting that he should be picked No. 1 overall by the Houston Texans. The Texans got a few Pro Bowls out of Jadeveon Clowney with the No. 1 pick, while Manziel became the next name to find his way into the Cleveland quarterback graveyard after two subpar seasons with the Browns.

4. Mike Williams, 2005

Lions president Matt Millen famously had his heart set on Demarcus Ware in the 2005 draft, but changed his mind just minutes before Detroit was set to pick and grabbed USC receiver Mike Williams after he sat out the entire 2004 season. Kiper loved the pick, declaring Williams a "Hall of Famer" before he ever played a single game. Williams recorded just 37 catches in two years with the Lions, as his lack of great speed made him one of the most high-profile busts from the Millen era in Detroit. Certainly not a Hall of Famer.

3. Akili Smith, 1999

Donovan McNabb was a superb pick, but the 1999 draft unfortunately brought us busts like Tim Couch, Cade McNown, and Cincinnati Bengals flop Akili Smith in the first round. Kiper declared the former Oregon quarterback would be a "great NFL player" after some tremendous pre-draft workouts, but Smith's athleticism couldn't make up for poor understanding of the playbook and accuracy. He threw just five touchdowns against 13 picks in four years as a pro, which moves him into all-time bad bust territory. Maybe he should have stuck with baseball.

2. Andre Wadsworth, 1998

In this draft, Kiper had Ryan Leaf ranked fourth overall on his big board and that wasn't his worst take that year. While Leaf and Peyton Manning figured to be the first two off the board, most thought Michigan's Charles Woodson, a Hall of Famer, was the next best player in the draft. Kiper, however, asserted the No. 1 player in the draft was Florida State defensive end Andre Wadsworth, who went third overall to the Arizona Cardinals while Woodson went fourth. Knee injuries limited Wadsworth to just eight sacks and 36 games in three years, cementing him as one of the biggest busts of all time. Oops.

1. Jimmy Clausen, 2010

Perhaps his most famous bad take, Kiper declared that if Clausen, a former top recruit and star at Notre Dame who fell to the second round of the NFL draft, was not a successful NFL quarterback within seven years, he would retire. Clausen was the furthest thing from successful. He won just one of his 10 starts in Carolina, throwing three touchdowns against nine picks while completing only 52 percent of his passes. Luckily for the Panthers. Clausen's awful year allowed them to select Cam Newton with the No. 1 pick in 2011. Clausen was a backup with the Bears and Ravens before leaving football in 2015.

Jimmy Clausen was a joke,but I still liked him as a 4th rd pick.He had me fooled a little. I like J. Hurt
 

Neil039

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He's go at no more credentials than my neighbor and my neighbor he's a postman...LMAO
 

dieterbrock

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Is it fair to say Suh didn’t live up to expectations? Clausen and Manziel fooled me for sure. Still wonder what Manziel would have been if he got his head screwed on straight.

That said, my biggest fail has to be....

Brian Leonard

4FC140D1-4A73-4649-B33E-B3CC0AB6D2B8.gif
 

MadGoat

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Ra'Shede Hageman, Kelvin Benjamin, Matt Elam, Justin Hunter, etc.

Those are just a few of my draft misses, haha.
It's hard to say you missed on Benjamin. I'm guessing you'd thought he'd be a star, but he was decent until knees just gave out.
 

Tano

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Mine were Reggie Bush Mike Williams and Matt Leinart - a bit biased there since I am a huge USC fan

I still think Matt would have been a good QB if he didn't party all the time.
 

OldSchool

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Claussen for me. So badly wanted us to go Suh at #1 and then Claussen in the 2nd round.
 

thirteen28

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My biggest miss was in the opposite direction. I was rolling my eyes when Chuck Knox put in the card for some nobody from Memphis named Isaac Bruce ... Knox was so Fisher-like bad in the passing game, I simply couldn't even conceive that the pick could have been a good one.

Oops.

But, as a consolation, I am more than happy that I was so incredibly, horribly wrong about that pick.

I wouldn't put Wadsworth in with the others.

Yeah, that's the tough thing about evaluating picks, because it's hard to account for injuries. I don't recall how Wadsworth did in particular, but there are more than a few highly-touted draft picks that probably would have been decent pros but early injuries derailed them and they never recovered.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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My biggest misses? Probably Bradford, and Jameis Winston. I didn't think Aaron Donald would be a good first rounder due to size. I thought Julio Jones came across as too dumb in interviews to handle being a number one receiver in the NFL and I thought Mike Evans wouldn't pan out. But I'll take a Mulligan on any receiver evaluations, because Bill Belichick can't even draft a good one.:ROFLMAO:
 

kurtfaulk

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Mine were Reggie Bush Mike Williams and Matt Leinart - a bit biased there since I am a huge USC fan

I still think Matt would have been a good QB if he didn't party all the time.

i thought leinart would bust. his passes always looked like they had "intercept me" written all over them.

on the other hand i thought vince young was gonna take over the league.

i wonder what would have happened if he wasn't forced onto jeff fisher. look how hard it was for goff to work with that qb killer.

.