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There's not a lot of love for the top of this draft.
As the smoke begins to clear for the 2013 draft, this is obvious: No one loves the top of it. No one. When you talk to league people, you hear over and over about how this is a middle-class draft, with an egalitarian class from the teens until the middle of the second round, and no real can't-miss stars at the top.
A history lesson, then, this morning. This draft is mindful of the 2008 draft, which, in retrospect, had a significantly better second 10 than top 10. That's in part due to injuries suffered by the first and fourth players in the '08 draft -- Jake Long and Darren McFadden -- but it's as much about the fact that the players picked 11 through 20 have just been better, injuries and all. Looking at the top 20 from 2008:
1. Miami: Jake Long, T
2. St. Louis: Chris Long, DE
3. Atlanta: Matt Ryan, QB
4. Oakland: Darren McFadden, RB
5. Kansas City: Glenn Dorsey, DT
6. NY Jets: Vernon Gholston, DE
7. New Orleans: Sedrick Ellis, DT
8. Jacksonville: Derrick Harvey, DE
9. Cincinnati: Keith Rivers, LB
10. New England: Jerod Mayo, LB
11. Buffalo: Leodis McKelvin, CB/Ret
12. Denver: Ryan Clady, T
13. Carolina: Jonathan Stewart, RB
14. Chicago: Chris Williams, T
15. Kansas City: Branden Albert, T
16. Arizona: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB
17. Detroit: Gosder Cherilus, T
18. Baltimore: Joe Flacco, QB
19. Carolina: Jeff Otah, T
20. Tampa Bay: Aqib Talib, CB
Let's judge the top 10 versus the second 10:
Premier players: In the top 10, there are two, Ryan and Mayo. In the second 10, I'd say there are three: Clady, Albert (a slight stretch, though a top-12 left tackle in this game today has to be considered premier) and Flacco. Jake Long would have been, had injuries not derailed his career. He still may be one, but he'll have to be sturdier in his new address, St. Louis.
Better than average players: Five in the top 10 -- Jake Long, Chris Long, Ryan, McFadden (marginally, because of his injuries) and Mayo. And I would say eight in the second 10 -- McKelvin, Clady, Stewart (4.7 yards per carry in a job-sharing career with DeAngelo Williams), Albert, Rodgers-Cromartie, Cherilus, Flacco and Talib.
Busts: Gholston, Harvey and Rivers in the top 10, only Williams and Otah in the second 10.
By any stretch, the second 10 has to be considered a stronger collective group than the top 10 from the 2008 draft.
Think of this draft. Who would be all that surprised if Jarvis Jones, Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree, Xavier Rhodes, Desmond Trufant and Bjoern Werner go in the second 10 ... and outplay their peers in the top 10?
There's not a lot of love for the top of this draft.
As the smoke begins to clear for the 2013 draft, this is obvious: No one loves the top of it. No one. When you talk to league people, you hear over and over about how this is a middle-class draft, with an egalitarian class from the teens until the middle of the second round, and no real can't-miss stars at the top.
A history lesson, then, this morning. This draft is mindful of the 2008 draft, which, in retrospect, had a significantly better second 10 than top 10. That's in part due to injuries suffered by the first and fourth players in the '08 draft -- Jake Long and Darren McFadden -- but it's as much about the fact that the players picked 11 through 20 have just been better, injuries and all. Looking at the top 20 from 2008:
1. Miami: Jake Long, T
2. St. Louis: Chris Long, DE
3. Atlanta: Matt Ryan, QB
4. Oakland: Darren McFadden, RB
5. Kansas City: Glenn Dorsey, DT
6. NY Jets: Vernon Gholston, DE
7. New Orleans: Sedrick Ellis, DT
8. Jacksonville: Derrick Harvey, DE
9. Cincinnati: Keith Rivers, LB
10. New England: Jerod Mayo, LB
11. Buffalo: Leodis McKelvin, CB/Ret
12. Denver: Ryan Clady, T
13. Carolina: Jonathan Stewart, RB
14. Chicago: Chris Williams, T
15. Kansas City: Branden Albert, T
16. Arizona: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB
17. Detroit: Gosder Cherilus, T
18. Baltimore: Joe Flacco, QB
19. Carolina: Jeff Otah, T
20. Tampa Bay: Aqib Talib, CB
Let's judge the top 10 versus the second 10:
Premier players: In the top 10, there are two, Ryan and Mayo. In the second 10, I'd say there are three: Clady, Albert (a slight stretch, though a top-12 left tackle in this game today has to be considered premier) and Flacco. Jake Long would have been, had injuries not derailed his career. He still may be one, but he'll have to be sturdier in his new address, St. Louis.
Better than average players: Five in the top 10 -- Jake Long, Chris Long, Ryan, McFadden (marginally, because of his injuries) and Mayo. And I would say eight in the second 10 -- McKelvin, Clady, Stewart (4.7 yards per carry in a job-sharing career with DeAngelo Williams), Albert, Rodgers-Cromartie, Cherilus, Flacco and Talib.
Busts: Gholston, Harvey and Rivers in the top 10, only Williams and Otah in the second 10.
By any stretch, the second 10 has to be considered a stronger collective group than the top 10 from the 2008 draft.
Think of this draft. Who would be all that surprised if Jarvis Jones, Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree, Xavier Rhodes, Desmond Trufant and Bjoern Werner go in the second 10 ... and outplay their peers in the top 10?
