It was also a different draft. Miami traded up from #12 to #3 using only their 2nd round pick the year after the RGIII draft. What you pay depends on the strength of the draft class and the teams you're bidding against.
In this draft, I think the Titans best move is for them to move down. They're not going to refuse to make the deal because we only offer 3 1sts and a 2nd rather than 3 1sts and 2 2nds. If they're willing to move down to #15, they're going to jump at RGIII value. Unless we get outbid.
The trade value chart only offers theoretical value. If you want to move down, you're going to take the best offer. Especially if that best offer gives you three first round picks.
I don't value picks that way. You're getting a first round pick no matter what. The pick isn't worth less than a first round pick. Thus, I value future first round picks as the 32nd pick in the first round. Because that's the worst case scenario. In that scenario, we're offering value around 2700 for the 1st pick which is listed at 3000. That's close enough for me.
Well, that's not what I'm offering. If Tennessee is willing to move down to #15, it's because they recognize (like I do) that the best players in this draft are at positions where they don't have a need. In that scenario, I don't believe for a second that Tennessee is going to turn down three first round picks and a second round pick for their pick because of the trade value chart.
If we get outbid, we get outbid. But Tennessee isn't going to reject the trade because of a lack of value. Nor will the media crucify them over only getting three firsts and a second for the #1 pick.
Take a step back from the numbers for a second and think about it. For a team with Taylor Lewan at LT and Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo at DE...is Joey Bosa or Laremy Tunsil worth more to you than three first round picks and a second round pick? If yes, you don't trade down. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th don't change that. If no, you don't reject the deal because of the trade value chart unless you have a better offer.
Those numbers are purely a guideline. At the end of the day, you still only get what the market offers you. Supply and demand. If the market isn't offering you what the trade value chart demands, you get to make the decision...is the offer better than staying here and making the pick? I think there's a strong possibility that it is for Tennessee.
Like I said, not what I'm willing to offer.(you might feel differently) If they get a better offer, so be it. If they want to stay and make the pick, so be it. But I think they have a very tough time turning down three first round picks and a second round pick for Laremy Tunsil or Joey Bosa.
In the end, if that's the best offer they have and it's a better alternative to them than the guy they're going to pick...they'll take the deal. No matter what the trade value chart says. Because that's the best the market is offering.
