Quote by fancents 86:
My main gripe is that we went all in for Goff, just to sit and learn for a year. He was the best pick out of a bad draft year for qbs, and from reports I'm hearing this coming draft is going to be stacked with qbs (if they continue to play as good as they have). So we could have played it safe and kept our picks, stuck with keenum which we are doing anyway, and drafted a qb just as talented if not a little more or less this coming draft. The way our depth is looking right now and how our offense is playing, we could definetly use some of those picks back for next year. To me going all in on Goff is like spending almost all your money on a bad ass paint job for your project car before fixing the engine.
No, it's an assumption based upon a larger assumption based upon an even larger assumption. Capped by a backwards simile.
Assumption A [Biggest Assumption]: This coming draft is going to be stacked with QBs.
- From all the reports I've read, there's Watson, and there's the mediocre rest of the field, and Watson has his own litany of questionmarks. I believe this assumption is highly highly questionable, however...
- If this Assumption is correct:
Assumption B [Pretty Big Assumption]: We can grab a QB with our pick (or even a trade up)
- Every year, there are several teams in need of QBs, and these teams tend to draft early
- Other such teams will be looking to trade up to secure their guy
- This past draft, we were lucky that Tennessee had their guy already, and thus were amenable to a trade
- Our record with Keenum likely won't put us at the top of the draft, but in the middle, once again
- All this considered, we need to be in position to grab one of these excellent QBs, and will either need to trade up, or flat-out suck this year
- If this Assumption is correct, though...
Assumption C [Big Assumption]: That QB is as good/better/only a little worse than Jared Goff
- Goff has highly touted intangibles, and several traits that stand out visibly on the field: poise in the pocket, size, arm talent, accuracy, footwork
- While he hasn't reached his potential in any of those areas, most of it has already showed up in preseason, and all of it is there on his college tape
- Every QB is a crapshoot, and the tools have to come together, the gap has to be bridged, the process has to work, etc.
If this assumption, in addition to the other assumptions is correct, then this point is right. If any of these assumptions is not correct, this point is moot and this line of thinking leaves us without a solid QB option.
And on top of all that, going with the car analogy, I would say the QB is much closer to being the engine that makes the car work. Spending big on a powerful and reliable engine is exactly what you want to do. (This is my assumption, since I'm not a car guy. Regardless, the QB is the most important piece, and that's what you want to get right, cost-be-damned).
Edit: To include fancents86 post.