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AFC Championship; why the Jaguars match up so well
The Patriots will face a new challenger in their seventh consecutive AFC championship game Sunday. The Jaguars follow the Ravens, Broncos, Colts and Steelers in trying to get the better of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
New England is not invincible, given it has split the previous six trips, including a home loss to Baltimore as more than a touchdown favorite five years ago. Jacksonville is a nine-point underdog in 2018, but it's a team built mentally and physically to give the reigning champion a game.
The Jaguars won't be trying to out-scheme Belichick or fool Brady. Many of them are too young to care about the Patriots' mystique and won't come into the game intimidated. They'll line up and be confident that their immense talent on defense will win them another game.
Here's a complete breakdown of the Patriots-Jaguars matchup before they battle to advance to Super Bowl LII.
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When Patriots have the ball
Running game
The Patriots have embraced the identity of a power-rushing team. Their No. 10 ground attack against the Jaguars' No. 21 run defense is the key to opening up everything else in the offense. Even though Rex Burkhead is expected to return, Dion Lewis should keep dominating touches. Because of Lewis' much-improved work between the tackles and still-dynamic ability as an outlet receiver in open field, he keeps the Patriots at their most unpredictable and versatile.
The Jaguars have been much better in stopping the run since they acquired tackle Marcell Dareus at midseason. He'll be in there for base 4-3 sets. If the Patriots go two-back with fullback James Develin as a lead blocker for Lewis, it will help, but that would also limit the number of receiving options. Going more two-tight end to run the ball will mean there's both some strong edge blocking aid from Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen and two targets who can stretch the middle of the field. To be effective running, the Patriots will need to have a mix of both alignments against the Jaguars' consistent Cover 3.
With the Jaguars being so strong at end in their base with Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, and given the speed of outside linebacker Telvin Smith, it will be hard for the Patriots to get the perimeter running game going. Lewis will need to use his elusiveness to maximize yardage against a strong tackling opponent.
Expect New England to be patient about establishing power, because Brady will need it to keep the "Sacksonville" pass rush at bay early and wear it down late. Balance is critical for Brady to hit on any big pass plays
Passing game
The Patriots' starting wide receivers, Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan, will struggle with the size and tight coverage of Jaguars cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. When the Patriots go three wide, Danny Amendola doesn't have an easy spot in the slot, either, against underrated nickel back Aaron Colvin.
There's been buzz about Ramsey covering Gronkowski when the latter isn't in-line as a tight end. But don't expect the Jaguars to deviate from Ramsey and Bouye handling their thirds of the field outside, with safeties Tashaun Gipson and Barry Church toggling between deep middle and run support/blitz responsibilities. Brady won't be seeing multiple looks, but he won't be thrilled about the one he does see.
The Jaguars trust Smith and Myles Jack to cover anyone on the second level, and before Paul Posluszny exits for Colvin on third downs, he plays the pass better than you think. Amendola and the Patriots' backs were big factors against the Titans because they were so weak in back seven coverage. Jacksonville is the opposite of that, and it won't mind giving up plays to Gronk if it can shut down everyone else.
New England's best chance to move the ball through the air will be Gronkowski rumbling downfield — an out no other team has against the NFL's best pass defense. Brady will also try to facilitate his receivers with some hurry-up possessions to catch the Jaguars in the wrong personnel groupings.
Patriots' best matchup
LT Nate Solder vs. Jaguars DE Dante Fowler Jr.: When the Patriots go three wide, the Jaguars will put Campbell inside and bring in Fowler as a situational pass rusher. He has run hot and cold this season in getting to the quarterback. So while the Patriots' two best offensive linemen, center David Andrews and right guard Shaq Mason, work to keep Campbell from getting to Brady's face, he should know his blindside should be secure.
The Patriots should want to use this formation before third down so it gives Lewis, Burkhead or James White a better chance to make something happen running to the left behind Solder and left guard Joe Thuney. That would attack a bigger weakness of Fowler while also running away from Campbell when Dareus isn't in the game.
Patriots' worst matchup
Cooks and Hogan vs. Bouye and Ramsey: This is why the Jaguars won't mess with Ramsey vs. Gronk. Their duo can shut down Cooks and Hogan by themselves, because neither is Antonio Brown. Cooks has disappeared outside in several games. That forces the Patriots to work inside, where Brady will need to keep throwing into tight windows with a bunch of other defenders who can close in a hurry.
Ben Roethlisberger had the benefit of better wideouts overall — plus running back Le'Veon Bell — to make spectacular catches in tough coverage and traffic. The Jaguars still won with Brown and Bell going off, and they'll expect to be fine in the bigger picture even if Lewis and Gronk do some damage.
Patriots' offensive X-factor
TE Dwayne Allen: He has not been a big part of the Patriots' passing game, but he has been a great fit for their blocking, delivering on the level of Gronk in that capacity. It won't take more than, say, three catches for 30 yards for Allen to have considerable contributions to a few scoring drives.
Jaguars' defensive X-factor
DT Malik Jackson: Much has been made about Tom Coughlin knowing how to beat the Patriots with a strong front four. But on a team full of younger players with little playoff experience, Jackson is the one who's been on the field to defeat New England twice in the AFC championship game while in Denver.
Jackson was a beast in the games against Buffalo and Pittsburgh as Jacksonville's savvy anchor. Campbell and Ngakoue have the double-digit sacks, but Jackson can have a bigger overall impact vs. run and pass Sunday.
When Jaguars have the ball
Running game
On paper, this looks like a great advantage for Jacksonville's No. 1 rushing offense against New England No. 20 rushing defense. Leonard Fournette coming back from his ankle injury to finish a dominant game against the Steelers was a good sign after he was shut down against the Bills. So was the fact that T.J. Yeldon made big plays out of the backfield coming off the bench, as both a runner and a receiver.
The Jaguars will want to run inside to the left behind left guard Patrick Omameh and center Brandon Linder against the weaker right side of the Patriots' front. If they choose to run right, they'll have the benefit of the game's best run-blocking tight end, Marcedes Lewis, to supplement sturdy right tackle Jeremy Parnell. The kicker will be two-tight sets with James O'Shaughnessy. Against the Steelers, the Jaguars excelled at throwing out of running formations to O'Shaughnessy, fullback Tommy Bohanon and third tight end Ben Koyack.
The Jaguars have different ways to get a helmet on a helmet should the Patriots load up and try to force Blake Bortles to throw. Coach Doug Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett adjusted well coming out of the anemic output against the Bills. The running ability of Bortles and the change of pace from Yeldon also can keep the Patriots off-balance.
Seeing how New England has been gashed by top feature backs all season, Jacksonville will feel confident it can have more good running success by matching defenders with blockers. The Patriots are built a whole lot more to stop the pass up front and in the secondary.
Passing game
The Jaguars won't have much success in base two-wide packages. Patriots cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Malcolm Butler will make it hard for Dede Westbrook and Marqise Lee to separate. Other than a deep shot off play-action to Keelan Cole late in the game against Pittsburgh, Jacksonville kept it simple for Bortles with a ton of bootlegs and screens. New England will be in business, however, if it can force third-and-long situations.
Look for the Jaguars to use a few three-wide sets on early downs to keep the Patriots honest, but if they are forced to do that because of game flow or down-and-distance, Bortles will be in trouble. Jacksonville needs to stay ahead of the chains with Fournette and those short passes getting little chunks. New England needs a big performance from its linebackers in coverage.
Because the Patriots want to play to their strengths and hide their weaknesses, while also exploiting the Jaguars' weaknesses, they will do their best to squeeze on the short-to-intermediate routes and make Bortles beat them deep to soften up the coverage. That plan will only work, however, if they can consistently contain the running game.
Jaguars' best matchup
WR Allen Hurns vs. Patriots CB Eric Rowe: When the Jaguars spread the field for Bortles, he needs to avoid forcing it to Westbrook, Lee or Cole. This is a good week to get Hurns going in the slot, given another savvy possession veteran receiver, the Titans' Eric Decker, ripped the Patriots for six catches and 85 yards on seven targets last week.
It's been another injury-riddled year for Hurns, but Jacksonville can't hold him back from being a key part of the game plan against the overmatched Rowe.
Jaguars' worst matchup
RG A.J. Cann vs. Patriots DT Malcom Brown: While the Malcolm on the outside will contain Lee, this Malcom in the middle can be a huge force in blowing up the running game at the point of attack. There is a big drop-off from Linder and Omameh to Cann in Jacksonville's interior run-blocking for Fournette.
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Jaguars' offensive X-factor
RB T.J. Yeldon: Yeldon was exceptional spelling Fournette against the Steelers, showing some burst when rushing and plenty of elusiveness to make big plays after the catch. A wrinkle the Jaguars should consider if the Patriots are successful in stopping Fournette early: giving Yeldon a few series to make them adjust to a different style of back.
Patriots' defensive X-factor
OLB James Harrison: Harrison got only 27 snaps in his Patriots debut against the Jets, and he logged two sacks and three other tackles. With 30 snaps against the Titans, he produced three tackles, two to stop power back Derrick Henry. He's New England's typical veteran defender who can "do his job" well and doesn't need to be out there much to disrupt Jacksonville's plans with Fournette and Bortles.
Prediction
The Jaguars fit the profile of teams that have given the Patriots trouble in the past, because they neutralize all their scheming with superior defensive personnel and simple offensive play-calling. This game isn't about Brady vs. Bortles, but Brady vs. a Jacksonville defense that brings together the best of what Seattle and Denver have had recently. Bortles and Fournette will do just enough against New England's defense to allow their team to shock the world.
Jaguars 23, Patriots 20.
