Your odds of finding a franchise QB in the first 15 picks are around 40% to 50%.
How is that percentage figured? What defines a guy as a "franchise QB"?
For instance do you consider Jeff George a "franchise QB"? He was the first overall pick in 1990. He played 12 years for 5 teams. Certainly he had the physical talent but the mental makeup was askew. He had 154 TDs, threw for 4,000 yards for Atlanta in 1995 (his 2nd team, 6th season) and 3900 for Oakland in 1999 (his 3rd team and 8th season) but did he define his career as a franchise QB or a very talented journeyman? I mean if I'm a GM and I'm using the #1 pick (or top 10 pick) on a QB, I want him on my team for more than 4 years (the longest George spent on any of his 5 teams). I probably want him on my team for 10 years, or 2 years less than George's total career with 5 teams.
Was Kerry Collins, #5 pick in 1995 a franchise QB? 18 years, 6 teams, career high 22 TDs, 3,000 yards 6 times, including a 4,000 yard season years 6-12. 208 TDs. Do we consider a guy a "franchise QB" because he plays X number of seasons? Or does he need to play X number of seasons at a very high level? And then there's the number of teams he's played for throughout that career. I feel if a guy is a franchise QB, he's going to play a long time for 1 franchise and not jump around 5 or 6 times.
It seems to be accepted fact that Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson are franchise QBs, two first round picks and a third rounder.
Is Alex Smith a franchise QB? Certainly he has looked really good with Andy Reid in KC. He didn't start showing signs of any success until year 6 in SF. And then he was benched in favor of 2nd round pick Colin Kaepernick and eventually moved on to another team.
When I think "franchise QB", I think of guys like Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, etc. One or two teams and success fairly early in their careers. If a guy doesn't start showing he had "it" by the time his rookie contract is up, can he be considered a "franchise QB"? And if it doesn't happen until he's with his 2nd or 3rd or 4th team, was that high pick well spent?