Hall of Fame look ahead: Orlando Pace/Wagoner

[RamBill]

Hall of Fame look ahead: Orlando Pace
By Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/15959/hall-of-fame-look-ahead-orlando-pace-2

EARTH CITY, Mo. -- The 2015 Pro Football Hall of Fame class was announced Saturday night and to the surprise of many, none of the players who spent the majority of their careers with the St. Louis or Los Angeles Rams made it in.

Sure, running back Jerome Bettis qualified but he was not long for the team that drafted him and played his defining years with the Pittsburgh Steelers. But former Rams legends such as Orlando Pace, Kurt Warner and Kevin Greene came up short and receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce didn't even make the list of finalists.

With that in mind, it's never too early to begin looking at how things might shake out in 2016. So we'll begin with Pace, the player I believe was the most glaring omission this year, not only from the Rams' nominees but from the class as a whole.

Why he missed: It became apparent when the 2015 class was revealed that this would be the year when players who have been waiting their turns would finally get the call. It included guys like Bettis, end Charles Haley, receiver Tim Brown and, most important in Pace's case, Kansas City guard Will Shields. Only linebacker Junior Seau made it as a first-ballot finalist. Shields was in his fourth year of waiting his turn and clearly the voters didn't believe he should wait any longer. It stands to reason that with Shields going in, the voters didn't want to double down on offensive linemen so Shields got the call with Pace being asked to wait at least a year. Additionally, some voters hinted that there was a belief that Pace wasn't as dominant as left tackle contemporaries such as Jonathan Ogden, Walter Jones and Willie Roaf. I would disagree but that sentiment is out there.

Why he should go: The case for Pace is pretty easy. He played 12 years in St. Louis, posting seven Pro Bowl trips, five All-Pro honors and landing a spot on the second team of the NFL's 2000s All-Decade team. With Pace on the blindside, the Rams finished in the top 10 of total offense seven times and led the league in total yards, passing yards and points three straight seasons (1999-2001). Additionally, Pace was the left tackle for an offense that finished in the top five of passing yards for eight consecutive seasons

How it looks in 2016: The biggest names joining the ballot next year are quarterback Brett Favre, receiver Terrell Owens, guard Alan Faneca and running back Clinton Portis. One would imagine Favre is the surest bet from that group, though Owens and Faneca figure to land in Canton at some point. Faneca would seem to be the one on the list who could serve as a potential roadblock for Pace. But if Pace wasn't considered dominant enough to go in on the first ballot and forced to wait to reward a guard who had waited himself, it doesn't seem logical that Pace would then have to wait again for a first-ballot guard who wasn't as dominant as Pace. The guess here is that Pace goes in relatively easily in 2016.

 

[Blue and Gold]

Pace will likely get in next year. If you look at who gets it, it is often those who were on the final 10 and didn't get in. Brown, Haley, Bettis SHileds were in the Final 10, then eliminated last year. The only one who didn't get in from last years Final 10 is Kevin Greene and he's a good bet for next year, as is Warner.

The voters had a good ballot of people and I thought Warner would make it, but the donut hole was a real thing. Kurt had 44 great games from 1999 to 2001 with 2 MVPs and so on. Then for the middle 1/3 of his career 36 games he was 8-23 with more picks that TDs and got sacks at a rate of 9% of his dropbacks. The the final 1/3 (2007-2009) he rose like a phoenix (!) and for those 45 games he had a winning record and a passer rating of 93 and got Cards to Super Bowl.

So, the hole was not just a couple of years, it was 5 years and 36 games.

So, for Kurt:
Act I (44 games) = MVP level
Act II (36 games) = Backup level
Act II (45 games) = Pro Bowl level.

He will make it in 2016.

 

[SierraRam]

I remember a game in 2005 against the Colts. Pace controlled phenom, all-pro Dwight Freeney and made it look easy. Bulger and the Rams dismantled the Colts in the first half. Then a tipped pass, interception, and Marc injured his shoulder making the tackle. Game, season, over.

Bulger was never the same and Pace declined rapidly beginning in 2006. Still, Big O anchored the line that allowed the GSOT to perform like no other offense before or since. And the hits that eventually hurt Warner were right in his face - he never got hit from the blindside.

Orlando Pace was the best tackle in the game for 7 consecutive years. His HOF omission is a travesty.

 

[Dodgersrf]

Tim Brown is well deserved.

 

[Boffo97]

Tim Brown is well deserved.

And hopefully is a move to get rid of some of the deserving receiver logjam before Bruce and Holt.

 

[Dodgersrf]

And hopefully is a move to get rid of some of the deserving receiver logjam before Bruce and Holt.

Definitely.
Bruce and Holt should make it as well.
Hopefully

 

[tempests]

And hopefully is a move to get rid of some of the deserving receiver logjam before Bruce and Holt.

They could be in for a long wait.

In that piece Wagoner suggests that voters didn't think Pace was as dominant as Jones, Ogden or Roaf. It's a mystery to me how anyone could watch Pace play and think that. He was more dominant than Roaf, without question. That guy had some meltdowns against high profile DEs.

The only explanation I could come up with is they were comparing the number of Pro Bowls they made. If that is what goes on in that room, it doesn't bode well for Bruce, who was really only dominant for a handful of seasons.

 

[Blue and Gold]

They could be in for a long wait.

In that piece Wagoner suggests that voters didn't think Pace was as dominant as Jones, Ogden or Roaf. It's a mystery to me how anyone could watch Pace play and think that. He was more dominant than Roaf, without question. That guy had some meltdowns against high profile DEs.

The only explanation I could come up with is they were comparing the number of Pro Bowls they made. If that is what goes on in that room, it doesn't bode well for Bruce, who was really only dominant for a handful of seasons.

Roaf was not first ballot. Jones and Ogden were. Roaf got in 2nd year, as will Pace.

 

[tempests]

Roaf was not first ballot. Jones and Ogden were. Roaf got in 2nd year, as will Pace.

Yeah, but this is what Wagoner said.

Additionally, some voters hinted that there was a belief that Pace wasn't as dominant as left tackle contemporaries such as Jonathan Ogden, Walter Jones and Willie Roaf

If they didn't think he was better than Roaf, then he wouldn't go in first ballot when Roaf didn't.

 

[Blue and Gold]

Yeah, but this is what Wagoner said.



If they didn't think he was better than Roaf, then he wouldn't go in first ballot when Roaf didn't.

yes, that's a fair analysis . . . it wasn't that he wasn't better than Roaf, as you say, every couple of years Roaf got lit up, Pace just kind of tailed off at the end . . .didn't finish strong. Could have been part of it.

 

[Blue and Gold]

Bernie: Why Warner, Pace didn't make it
• By Bernie Miklasz

www.stltoday.com

Last Saturday, I participated in the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection meeting that lasted 8 hours and 50 minutes. After a long day of discussion and debate, we chose five modern-day candidates from the list of 15 candidates.

Congratulations to RB Jerome Bettis, WR Tim Brown, DE Charles Haley, G Will Shields and the late MLB Junior Seau.

They'll be joined in the Hall of Fame Class of 2015 by "Contributors" Ron Wolf and Bill Polian and Senior Committee nominee Mick Tinglehoff — the remarkably enduring center for the Minnesota Vikings. (I am a member of the committee that put Tinglehoff up for a vote of the overall body of selectors.)

The Contributors and the Senior nominee are voted on separately, apart from the Modern Era candidates.

Two former Rams were among the 15 finalists: OT Orlando Pace and QB Kurt Warner. Both made the cutdown from 15 to 10 but were eliminated in the subsequent reduction from 10 to 5.

So why did Pace and Warner get left out this time?

First of all, they had plenty of support. Enthusiastic support. And in my opinion both will be elected to the Hall of Fame soon. I think there's a great chance of Pace making it next year. I'm not so sure about Warner in 2016, but only because former Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre appears on the ballot for the first time in '16.

But there are reasons why Pace and Warner came up a little short in their first years on the ballot.

1. There was a sentiment in the room — with individual voters speaking out — to push worthy candidates that had been waiting for several years. Haley and Brown were six-time finalists; Betts was a five-time finalist; Shields was a four-time finalist. There wasn't a question of whether they'd make the Hall of Fame. It was just a matter of time. And with so much parity among the final group of 15 players, it made sense to give the nod to players that had barely missed out in previous votes.

Pace and Warner were close, but Seau was the only absolute, no-doubt first-ballot guy on this list. Pace and Warner will have to wait a little while, and there's no crime in that.

The problem? Too many people in the media (and also fans) carelessly tab too many candidates as "slam-dunk first-ballot Hall of Famers" and distort the actual reality.

With so many players absurdly touted as "slam-dunk first-ballot Hall of Famers" fans are stunned and upset when it doesn't happen. The expectations are way off base and create a misguided sense of entitlement.

Listen, to accommodate every "slam-dunk first-ballot Hall of Famer" as touted by hot-take nation, we'd have to put in 10 or 15 guys a year to make it come true. Remember: there are only FIVE spots each year.

And why does it matter if you make it in the first year, second year, third year, or seventh year? A Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer. They all receive the same gold jacket and an equal acclaim. It's not as if "first ballot" selections are enshrined in a special place, or given special status as a Hall of Famer.

It's like the NFL Draft; it's nice to be a first-round pick, but all that matters is making the team. And to that end, it doesn't matter where you were drafted. Or not drafted. (Ask Malcolm Butler about that.) Once you're chosen to the Hall of Fame, you're a member of the team ... forever.

If all else is equal, I support the pragmatic approach of giving extra consideration to players that have waited longer than others for a spot in Canton. In past years, we've had a few positions clogged up with excellent players who canceled each other out by splitting votes.

That was especially true of the wide receiver position. Art Monk and Andre Reed didn't make it until their 8th time as a finalists, Brown didn't get in until his 6th year as a finalist, and Michael Irvin was a three-time finalist before getting the necessary votes.

In 2008 and 2009, Reed and Carter split votes.

Carter, Reed and Brown each were finalists in 2010, 2011 and 2012 but canceled each other out, so none made it through.

What was the point of continuing down this track?

We couldn't continue to ignore wide receivers and shut them out because of our indecisiveness. We couldn't continue to leave the 15-man ballot cluttered with wide receivers, which also blocks future wide receivers who deserve consideration.

WRs such as the Rams' Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, who didn't make it to the final 15 this time. With Brown and Harrison sure things to make it back to the final 15 this year, people simply weren't going to put four wide receivers in the 15 available slots. So Bruce and Holt were got squeezed in the traffic jam.

In an imperfect system, the best way to go about this is to consolidate support behind one candidate at a position in a given year, and begin the process of getting them in one at a time instead of allowing the jam-up to go on and create an even bigger mess.

That's exactly how the process has worked out. Six wide receivers have been voted in since 2007, and the logjam has been eased. Brown is in now, Harrison is on deck, and other wide receivers are lining up: Bruce, Holt, Terrell Owens, Hines Ward, Randy Moss. I don't know how many of them will make it to Canton sooner than later — but allowing a logjam to exist without taking action doesn't help anyone. It's a problem. And we're doing something about the problem.

This applies to other positions. Haley's induction is good news for another worthy pass rusher, Kevin Greene, who should be next. Now that Bettis is cleared, voters can turn more attention to RB Terrell Davis.

2. In effect, Pace lost out to Will Shields. A couple of points on that: first of all, I don't understand my fellow voters who apparently believed they had to compare the offensive linemen and choose between them. When it gets down to picking the final five, I have no philosophical problem choosing two guys who play the same position.

But that's the other thing; Pace (a tackle) and Shields (a guard) don't play the same position. Well, it didn't matter. It's obvious to me that it was going to come down to Pace or Shields in the vote from 10 to 5 ... and Shields was the choice.

I have mixed feelings. I wanted Pace to make it and made a strong push for him. I was disappointed when he didn't make it. But if, in fact, Pace lost out to Shields, then I can't rip the decision.

Yes, I believe a shutdown left tackle is more valuable to an offense than a top guard. But who can deny or disparage Shields' worthiness? Shields was a great player; the man was voted to the Pro Bowl for 12 consecutive seasons. That's incredible. And Shields was on the finalist list for the fourth time.

I didn't view this as a Pace vs. Shields contest. But if my fellow voters did see it that way — and clearly, that was the case — I can't pound on them for giving the nod to Shields. It was his time. And if Pace has to wait one year, it's hardly a reason to call Amnesty International. That said, if Pace doesn't make it next year, I don't think I'll be as diplomatic.

3. In my opinion, it's difficult for voters to @#$%& Warner's career. It was a unique career — one of the most unique stories in NFL history. Warner came out of nowhere to help lead the Rams to two Super Bowls (and one title) in three years, winning two league MVPs and a Super Bowl MVP. He gets hurt, with a damaged hand causing him major problems in gripping and throwing the football. He's released by the Rams, and fades into a backup role with the NY Giants and Arizona Cardinals. And then he has a second act, rising from the abyss to reemerge as a starter and take the Cardinals to the Super Bowl.

The Rams had more losses in the 1990s than any NFL team before '99. The Cardinals had the most losses (499) in the NFL between 1948 and 2007 ... until Warner led them to their first Super Bowl. One quarterback takes two sad-sack franchises to the Super Bowl?

It's a truly remarkable career. It's also a career that has a rather substantial hole. Over five seasons (2002 through 2006) Warner started only 31 games, had an 8-23 record, threw more interceptions (30) than touchdowns (27), had a mediocre passer rating (82.3) and fumbled way too often.

At his best, his peak, Warner was as good as any QB in NFL history. And he helped transform two losing franchises. But how do you measure that against the five-year hole in his career?

I personally don't wrestle with that because I understand that Warner was damaged during those lost years. To me, his ability to come back from the weak hand and do it all over again for Arizona ... well, that makes his career more impressive. Not less impressive.

But I think other voters are still trying to reconcile all of this — the sizzling Warner peak and the sad Warner struggles. They'll get there. He'll be a Hall of Famer. When a player makes it to the final 10 on his first year on the ballot, history tells us that he's a virtual certainty to make it to the Hall of Fame. And Kurt has a lot of support in the room.

Thanks for reading ...

 

[Blue and Gold]

the man was voted to the Pro Bowl for 12 consecutive seasons.

yes, however, I think the fan-voting in 1995 to present kind of taints the Pro Bowl award. First-team All-Pro by the major organizations, AP, PFWA, and SN is what carriers more weight, IMO