I know I’m late to the Goff/Wentz debate-fest, but I gotta get this off my chest.
To me, Goff looks special. Wentz looks like he could be “very good.”
If the Rams choose Goff, I will be thrilled. If they choose Wentz, I will be terribly disappointed. For those of you in the Wentz camp, hear me out, then please explain to me why I shouldn’t be disappointed if they go with Wentz.
HIGHLIGHT REELS: I was split between the two QB’s-- until I watched the tape. Over and over again, Goff has that WOW factor. After watching these two highlight reels it is hard for me to understand how people can think these 2 QB’s are in the same conversation. Wentz, with a CLEAN POCKET, throws with “decent” accuracy (receiver makes slight adjustment); Goff, sliding in the pocket as bodies crash around him, delivers STRIKES. Lots of highlight reels out there, but these two (shortish) clips highlight the difference in arm talent.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEGafktM5r4
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7oT3PpE_Rw
ACCURACY. As others have noted, Goff just throws “dimes.” Unbelievable accuracy, and CONSISTENT. Heck, many of his incompletions and even INT’s bounced off his receivers’ hands.
ANTICIPATION: With Goff, just unreal. A special player. Another poster somewhere pointed out this one particular play-- an incompletion no less, from his “worst” game, vs. Utah. Just do me a favor: fast forward to the play at the 4:30 mark. PAUSE the tape at 4:32. Look at the screenshot. Then go ahead one second and pause it at 4:33. You’ll see what I mean.
http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jared-goff-vs-utah-2015/
POCKET PRESENCE: Goff’s Number ONE attribute. For those who compare him to Bradford—he’s the polar opposite in this regard. Based on a recommendation from max, I checked out this breakdown from Matt Waldman. Goff has amazing peripheral vision and footwork:
https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2016/03/15/rsp-boiler-room-no-29-qb-jared-goff-pocket-presence/
RUNNING. OK, no doubt, here is where Wentz is superior to Goff. However—when I see Wentz run, I don’t see ‘special.” I guess I am biased against FCS level (division 1-A, whatever) competition. The word I’d use is “lumbering.” Mainly, Wentz does NOT look like a guy whose priority is to protect himself, he’s looking for somebody to hit and bowl over. Serious concerns to me about Wentz’ ability to stay healthy. Goff, on the other hand, looks like he can pick up yards when needed, but knows how to protect himself.
ARM STRENGTH: OK, this is the ONLY area where I watched Wentz and thought “Wow.” But the goal is to win a Super Bowl, not Combine Drill Championship. For me, this is the ONLY area where a case can be made to pick Wentz over Goff. If people think Wentz’s arm strength is so superior that it would result in a difference in how defenses play us—great, I’d love to hear it.
RELEASE: Again, with Goff, it’s “Wow.” I routinely think, “How did he get it out so fast?” Wentz looks quick, but Goff looks quicker. Goff just CHUCKS it, even on bombs, while Wentz seems to “wind up” more often.
PAJAMA OLYMPICS: Again, for sake of comparison, I present highlights from their Combine performances side-by-side. When I watch Goff, I think—“Wow, every single throw spot on, receiver never has to break stride.” Wentz: “Yeah, most of the throws are spot on, but he missed a couple.”
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oagfYhvOB6I
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YIocD_0E0s
PROGRESSIONS: Over and over again I see Goff going to his third option and throwing a strike. Admittedly I’ve watched less tape of Wentz, just doesn’t seem to me I’ve seen this as much.
STATS: No comparison. Are you kidding me? Yardage wise, a career day for Wentz (335 yards or so) was an average day for Goff. And Goff threw for almost as many TD’s (43) in his senior season as Wentz did (45) in his entire career. (A cherry-picked stat, but still….).
THE NUMBER CRUNCHERS: The stat geeks have spoken, and they all seem to prefer Goff. By a lot. Found this article by Ian Wharton (don’t know him, but he took the time to catalogue every single throw by the top 4 QB’s during 2015). Wharton’s stats confirmed what my eyes told me: Goff’s accuracy was far superior to Wentz.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2604748-why-jared-goff-is-the-next-franchise-quarterback
And Football Outsiders gives Wentz a far-higher “bust” potential than Goff:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/qbase-2016
RESUME: Wentz sat on the bench his first two years. (If he was “all that”, wouldn’t he have cracked the starting lineup sooner?). Goff was ALWAYS the Golden Kid, the Chosen One, and performed remarkably well as a true freshman on a terrible team. And Goff is 21, Wentz is 23.
LEVEL OF COMPETITION: Again, no contest. Admittedly, I have a higher expectation for Wentz—I don’t see that “man among boys” quality I’d expect from him in FCS football. SIZE? Yes, Wentz he seems bigger and stronger. SPEED? No. Wentz does NOT look NFL-level fast when going through his progressions. And here’s a key for me—how would the Bison do without Wentz? Well just fine, they went undefeated when he was out (I think). How would Cal do without Goff? I suspect they would fall apart. When I see Cal, I see a team with no running game, a porous Offensive Line, and a horrific D (I think Cal D surrendered over 30 points a game all 3 years Goff was there).
INJURY HISTORY: I acknowledge Goff separated his shoulder, and had a sprained ankle at one point-- but Goff never missed a game in either high school OR college. As for Wentz—yes, of course he missed 8 games when he broke his wrist as a senior. AND—one of the reasons he ended up at ND State and was not a big-time recruit—he lost an entire year of playing QB in high school due to an arm injury (played other positions instead). So to recap, for major injuries that cost significant time: Wentz two, Goff zero.
INTANGIBLES: I’ve watched the interviews with both Gruden and Mariucci for both guys. What I see: Wentz is smart and looking to say the right things. Goff looks like he “knows it” and doesn’t have anything to prove. I look at their body language at the Combine, and to my eyes, when Wentz nails it, I see “Yes, I knew I could measure up at this level!” and when he misses I see, “Dangit Carson, try harder.” With Goff, as ALL of his throws were strikes, I just see “Yup, confirming what I knew all along.”
BOTTOM LINE: When I watch Jared Goff’s college tape, I get the same reaction as when I watched Aaron Donald’s college tape. Many times I thought “WOW—how did he do that!??!!” And then, even more shocking, it becomes ROUTINE. The more you watch Goff’s tape, the more you realize he does the amazing REPEATEDLY and CONSISTENTLY. And it’s the same damn knock for both Donald and Goff: "Yeah, but he’s a little small for the position.” For both Goff and Donald, it’s demonstrably not true.
To me, Goff looks Super Bowls, Wentz looks Playoffs. Wentz has “It”, Goff has
IT.
FINAL DISCLAIMER: I acknowledge I could be wrong about EVERYTHING in this long post, I’ve been horribly wrong about the Rams plenty of times. Maybe Goff is weak-armed and too skinny and he’ll have trouble adjusting to a pro-style offense and all his good habits will get knocked out of him. Maybe Wentz will be a solid stud for years to come.
But right now, I have my heart set on Goff, and I’ll have to drink lots of Kool-Aid if they surprise me and go with Wentz. For Wentz supporters, feel free to disagree with me, I know we all just want what’s best for our Rams!
But I'm still leaning Wentz because of his running capabilities and his up-side!:yess: But I'll be Happy whichever way the Draft goes!!
