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07 Nov 2017
Week 9 DVOA Ratings
by Aaron Schatz
Football Outsiders has been driving the Los Angeles Rams bandwagon since I first put together early projections for ESPN Insider in April. Readers were surprised to open up Football Outsiders Almanac 2017 and find the Rams with a mean projection of 8.0 wins. Our preseason simulation put the Rams in the playoffs 38 percent of the time.
But I never, ever, thought we would be talking about the 2017 Los Angeles Rams as the best team in the NFL.
And yet, according to DVOA, that's what the Rams have been. After flaying the rotting carcass of what used to be the New York Giants, by the score of 51-17, the Rams move past the Pittsburgh Steelers and take over the No. 1 spot in DVOA this week.
Perhaps what's most remarkable is how well-rounded the Rams are in 2017. Our preseason projection was based on the idea that the Rams would be near the top of the league on defense and special teams. That prediction came true, as the Rams are third in defense and first in special teams. But the Rams are also now ninth in offensive DVOA, and that's not because of the Todd Gurley show. The Rams are 15th in rushing DVOA, but second in passing DVOA. Only the New England Patriots have a better passing game than the Rams this season.
It has been a long, long time since the Rams were this good. The Rams had not been in the DVOA top ten any later than Week 1 since they ranked No. 6 in Week 8 of 2003. They were last No. 1 in Week 4 of 2001. (Despite going 14-2, that Rams team was behind the Philadelphia Eagles in DVOA for most of the season.) The offense also hasn't been any higher than tenth since Week 7 of 2004.
It's certainly possible that we're overrating the Rams a bit because of a couple of runaway wins, but most of the good fortune the Rams have had this season is already filtered out of the DVOA ratings. The Rams' schedule ranks 29th so far, but opponent adjustments are almost full strength by this point, and even if they were full strength it wouldn't bump the Rams out of the top spot. The Rams have also had serendipity with opposing special teams, but we don't give them credit for that in our special teams ratings. Not only do the Rams lead the league in actual special teams value, they also lead the league in "hidden" special teams value. Opposing kickers are just 11-of-17 on field goals, with two of those misses coming from less than 40 yards. They've also missed two extra points. Only half of opposing kickoffs have gone for touchbacks, compared to 65 percent league-wide, and opposing punts have also been shorter than average.
So the Rams aren't quite as good as their league-leading point differential of 108 points would otherwise indicate, but even if we adjust for that, they're still No. 1. This team was 30th in DVOA a year ago. That's a phenomenal turnaround. There's no guarantee the Rams will stay this good for the entire season, but right now, this would be the greatest year-to-year turnaround in DVOA history.
The Rams are part of a wave of fairly balanced teams at the top of the DVOA ratings in 2017. The defining trend in the NFL last season was an almost total absence of teams that were above average on both sides of the ball. No team finished the year in the top 10 for both offense and defense. Only three teams were above-average on both sides of the ball: New England (second on offense, 16th on defense), Pittsburgh (7/11), and Washington (12/14). A fourth team, Seattle, was ranked in the top half of the league on both sides of the ball although their No. 16 offensive DVOA was below zero.
The 2017 season has seen a lot of parity, without a historically dominant team. But the best teams of the year are still pretty good, and they're very well-rounded. As of this week, there are now four different teams that rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball, two of which are in the top 10 on special teams as well. The Rams are one, and the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles are the other. In fact, the Eagles are even better-balanced than the Rams are. They rank ninth or higher if we break down the game into five phases instead of three: pass offense (4), pass defense (8), run offense (9), run defense (8), and special teams (5).
The other two teams, which are strong on offense and defense but not special teams, are Pittsburgh (sixth on offense, fourth on defense) and New Orleans (third on offense, eighth on defense).
But wait, there's more! Not only do we have four teams in the top 10 for both offense and defense, we have five other teams that rank in the top half of the league on both sides of the ball.
Jacksonville is 12th on offense, first on defense. Yes, that's correct. Jacksonville is 12th on offense with Blake Bortles at quarterback. Blake Bortles has an above-average DVOA this year. He is 17th in passing DVOA at 7.5%. We have been waiting for years and wondering: Will Blake Bortles ever develop? Not even into a star, but can he be just an average NFL quarterback? For half a season, at least, the answer is yes. Even if you want to discount his rating a bit because of all the blowouts, it's hard to argue that Blake Bortles has not been an actual average NFL starting quarterback this season. Jacksonville moves up to fourth in overall DVOA this week and is the clear favorite to win the AFC South. Seattle and Tennessee are their only future opponents that currently have winning records.
That's one team. There are four more. Minnesota is 11th on offense, ninth on defense. The Vikings are also 14th on special teams, the third team (besides Los Angeles and Philadelphia) to be above average in all three phases. Houston is 13th on offense, 15th on defense, although it seems very unlikely that the Texans will still be ranked that high when we get to the end of the season. Washington is 14th on offense and 12th on defense. Seattle is 15th on offense and seventh on defense.
There's even a tenth team this year that is above average on both offense and defense, even though it isn't in the top half of the league. The Los Angeles Chargers are 17th in offensive DVOA, but 0.7% is above average. They're also 17th in defensive DVOA, but -1.8% is above average. The Chargers have been doomed by the worst special teams in the league at -10.1% DVOA.
With all these balanced teams, what happened to the great unbalanced teams of last year? Don't worry, we've got them too. Five of the top eight offenses in DVOA rank in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA. Those teams are led, of course, by the New England Patriots, although the Patriots are no longer in last place on defense. The Oakland Raiders dropped below them this week. Kansas City, Dallas, and Atlanta finish up this group of five teams.
Only two teams are really the flip, competitive based on defense and special teams without a good offense. Baltimore is second on defense and third on special teams, but 24th on offense. Carolina is also in the top ten for both defense and special teams, but 22nd on offense.
One team you didn't find mentioned here was the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are this week's big DVOA loser, dropping from 10th to 17th after a loss to the New York Jets. That win also pulled the Jets out of the group that I've been calling the Awful Eight. Or perhaps it is more accurate to say that the floundering Tampa Bay Buccaneers have dropped enough to make that group the Awful Nine.
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through nine weeks of 2017, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Opponent adjustments are currently at 90 percent strength, and will hit full strength next week. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.
To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-9-dvoa-ratings
Week 9 DVOA Ratings
by Aaron Schatz
Football Outsiders has been driving the Los Angeles Rams bandwagon since I first put together early projections for ESPN Insider in April. Readers were surprised to open up Football Outsiders Almanac 2017 and find the Rams with a mean projection of 8.0 wins. Our preseason simulation put the Rams in the playoffs 38 percent of the time.
But I never, ever, thought we would be talking about the 2017 Los Angeles Rams as the best team in the NFL.
And yet, according to DVOA, that's what the Rams have been. After flaying the rotting carcass of what used to be the New York Giants, by the score of 51-17, the Rams move past the Pittsburgh Steelers and take over the No. 1 spot in DVOA this week.
Perhaps what's most remarkable is how well-rounded the Rams are in 2017. Our preseason projection was based on the idea that the Rams would be near the top of the league on defense and special teams. That prediction came true, as the Rams are third in defense and first in special teams. But the Rams are also now ninth in offensive DVOA, and that's not because of the Todd Gurley show. The Rams are 15th in rushing DVOA, but second in passing DVOA. Only the New England Patriots have a better passing game than the Rams this season.
It has been a long, long time since the Rams were this good. The Rams had not been in the DVOA top ten any later than Week 1 since they ranked No. 6 in Week 8 of 2003. They were last No. 1 in Week 4 of 2001. (Despite going 14-2, that Rams team was behind the Philadelphia Eagles in DVOA for most of the season.) The offense also hasn't been any higher than tenth since Week 7 of 2004.
It's certainly possible that we're overrating the Rams a bit because of a couple of runaway wins, but most of the good fortune the Rams have had this season is already filtered out of the DVOA ratings. The Rams' schedule ranks 29th so far, but opponent adjustments are almost full strength by this point, and even if they were full strength it wouldn't bump the Rams out of the top spot. The Rams have also had serendipity with opposing special teams, but we don't give them credit for that in our special teams ratings. Not only do the Rams lead the league in actual special teams value, they also lead the league in "hidden" special teams value. Opposing kickers are just 11-of-17 on field goals, with two of those misses coming from less than 40 yards. They've also missed two extra points. Only half of opposing kickoffs have gone for touchbacks, compared to 65 percent league-wide, and opposing punts have also been shorter than average.
So the Rams aren't quite as good as their league-leading point differential of 108 points would otherwise indicate, but even if we adjust for that, they're still No. 1. This team was 30th in DVOA a year ago. That's a phenomenal turnaround. There's no guarantee the Rams will stay this good for the entire season, but right now, this would be the greatest year-to-year turnaround in DVOA history.
Most Improved Overall DVOA, 1986-2017
Years Team DVOA Y1 Rk Y1 W-L Y1 DVOA Y2 Rk Y2 W-L Y2 Change
2016-2017* LARM -28.6% 30 4-12 33.0% 1 6-2 61.6%
2012-2013 KC -40.1% 32 2-14 17.5% 6 11-5 57.6%
2009-2010 DET -51.6% 32 2-14 -1.1% 18 6-10 50.5%
2011-2012 DEN -11.8% 24 8-8 36.5% 2 13-3 48.3%
1998-1999 STL -9.9% 20 4-12 34.0% 1 13-3 43.8%
2011-2012 SEA -1.5% 19 7-9 38.7% 1 11-5 40.2%
1986-1987** IND -30.5% 27 3-13 9.5% 6 7-5 39.9%
1998-1999 OAK -18.3% 27 8-8 21.2% 3 8-8 39.5%
1999-2000 NO -40.3% 31 3-13 -0.9% 19 10-6 39.4%
2003-2004 PIT -1.6% 19 6-10 37.6% 1 15-1 39.1%
2003-2004 BUF -7.3% 23 6-10 31.3% 3 9-7 38.7%
2007-2008 CAR -20.6% 26 7-9 18.0% 6 12-4 38.6%
2015-2016 DAL -18.0% 27 4-12 20.3% 2 13-3 38.3%
*Through 8 games / ** 12-game season, strike not included
Years Team DVOA Y1 Rk Y1 W-L Y1 DVOA Y2 Rk Y2 W-L Y2 Change
2016-2017* LARM -28.6% 30 4-12 33.0% 1 6-2 61.6%
2012-2013 KC -40.1% 32 2-14 17.5% 6 11-5 57.6%
2009-2010 DET -51.6% 32 2-14 -1.1% 18 6-10 50.5%
2011-2012 DEN -11.8% 24 8-8 36.5% 2 13-3 48.3%
1998-1999 STL -9.9% 20 4-12 34.0% 1 13-3 43.8%
2011-2012 SEA -1.5% 19 7-9 38.7% 1 11-5 40.2%
1986-1987** IND -30.5% 27 3-13 9.5% 6 7-5 39.9%
1998-1999 OAK -18.3% 27 8-8 21.2% 3 8-8 39.5%
1999-2000 NO -40.3% 31 3-13 -0.9% 19 10-6 39.4%
2003-2004 PIT -1.6% 19 6-10 37.6% 1 15-1 39.1%
2003-2004 BUF -7.3% 23 6-10 31.3% 3 9-7 38.7%
2007-2008 CAR -20.6% 26 7-9 18.0% 6 12-4 38.6%
2015-2016 DAL -18.0% 27 4-12 20.3% 2 13-3 38.3%
*Through 8 games / ** 12-game season, strike not included
The Rams are part of a wave of fairly balanced teams at the top of the DVOA ratings in 2017. The defining trend in the NFL last season was an almost total absence of teams that were above average on both sides of the ball. No team finished the year in the top 10 for both offense and defense. Only three teams were above-average on both sides of the ball: New England (second on offense, 16th on defense), Pittsburgh (7/11), and Washington (12/14). A fourth team, Seattle, was ranked in the top half of the league on both sides of the ball although their No. 16 offensive DVOA was below zero.
The 2017 season has seen a lot of parity, without a historically dominant team. But the best teams of the year are still pretty good, and they're very well-rounded. As of this week, there are now four different teams that rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball, two of which are in the top 10 on special teams as well. The Rams are one, and the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles are the other. In fact, the Eagles are even better-balanced than the Rams are. They rank ninth or higher if we break down the game into five phases instead of three: pass offense (4), pass defense (8), run offense (9), run defense (8), and special teams (5).
The other two teams, which are strong on offense and defense but not special teams, are Pittsburgh (sixth on offense, fourth on defense) and New Orleans (third on offense, eighth on defense).
But wait, there's more! Not only do we have four teams in the top 10 for both offense and defense, we have five other teams that rank in the top half of the league on both sides of the ball.
Jacksonville is 12th on offense, first on defense. Yes, that's correct. Jacksonville is 12th on offense with Blake Bortles at quarterback. Blake Bortles has an above-average DVOA this year. He is 17th in passing DVOA at 7.5%. We have been waiting for years and wondering: Will Blake Bortles ever develop? Not even into a star, but can he be just an average NFL quarterback? For half a season, at least, the answer is yes. Even if you want to discount his rating a bit because of all the blowouts, it's hard to argue that Blake Bortles has not been an actual average NFL starting quarterback this season. Jacksonville moves up to fourth in overall DVOA this week and is the clear favorite to win the AFC South. Seattle and Tennessee are their only future opponents that currently have winning records.
That's one team. There are four more. Minnesota is 11th on offense, ninth on defense. The Vikings are also 14th on special teams, the third team (besides Los Angeles and Philadelphia) to be above average in all three phases. Houston is 13th on offense, 15th on defense, although it seems very unlikely that the Texans will still be ranked that high when we get to the end of the season. Washington is 14th on offense and 12th on defense. Seattle is 15th on offense and seventh on defense.
There's even a tenth team this year that is above average on both offense and defense, even though it isn't in the top half of the league. The Los Angeles Chargers are 17th in offensive DVOA, but 0.7% is above average. They're also 17th in defensive DVOA, but -1.8% is above average. The Chargers have been doomed by the worst special teams in the league at -10.1% DVOA.
With all these balanced teams, what happened to the great unbalanced teams of last year? Don't worry, we've got them too. Five of the top eight offenses in DVOA rank in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA. Those teams are led, of course, by the New England Patriots, although the Patriots are no longer in last place on defense. The Oakland Raiders dropped below them this week. Kansas City, Dallas, and Atlanta finish up this group of five teams.
Only two teams are really the flip, competitive based on defense and special teams without a good offense. Baltimore is second on defense and third on special teams, but 24th on offense. Carolina is also in the top ten for both defense and special teams, but 22nd on offense.
One team you didn't find mentioned here was the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are this week's big DVOA loser, dropping from 10th to 17th after a loss to the New York Jets. That win also pulled the Jets out of the group that I've been calling the Awful Eight. Or perhaps it is more accurate to say that the floundering Tampa Bay Buccaneers have dropped enough to make that group the Awful Nine.
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through nine weeks of 2017, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Opponent adjustments are currently at 90 percent strength, and will hit full strength next week. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.
To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA LAST
WEEK WEI.
DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA OFF.
RANK DEFENSE
DVOA DEF.
RANK S.T.
DVOA S.T.
RANK
1 LARM 33.0% 2 32.2% 1 6-2 10.6% 9 -14.8% 3 7.6% 1
2 PIT 29.3% 1 29.7% 2 6-2 16.5% 6 -14.3% 4 -1.4% 21
3 PHI 29.2% 3 29.2% 3 8-1 16.0% 7 -7.8% 10 5.4% 5
4 JAC 24.9% 7 24.0% 5 5-3 7.0% 12 -22.7% 1 -4.8% 26
5 NO 23.8% 5 24.8% 4 6-2 19.3% 3 -9.1% 8 -4.6% 24
6 MIN 19.2% 6 18.8% 6 6-2 9.5% 11 -8.4% 9 1.3% 14
7 KC 15.2% 4 12.9% 9 6-3 20.2% 2 11.6% 26 6.6% 4
8 DAL 14.7% 9 15.0% 7 5-3 18.6% 4 8.4% 23 4.6% 7
9 SEA 13.5% 11 14.8% 8 5-3 3.1% 15 -10.6% 7 -0.1% 17
10 BAL 10.5% 12 9.1% 13 4-5 -13.0% 24 -16.7% 2 6.8% 3
11 DET 10.2% 13 9.4% 12 4-4 -4.7% 20 -7.6% 11 7.3% 2
12 HOU 9.4% 8 9.8% 11 3-5 5.3% 13 -5.7% 15 -1.6% 22
13 NE 8.2% 15 10.3% 10 6-2 25.9% 1 21.3% 31 3.6% 11
14 CAR 8.0% 16 7.5% 14 6-3 -8.8% 22 -12.9% 5 3.9% 9
15 GB 7.4% 17 6.1% 15 4-4 9.5% 10 2.5% 20 0.3% 16
16 WAS 6.2% 14 6.0% 16 4-4 3.5% 14 -7.4% 12 -4.7% 25
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA LAST
WEEK WEI.
DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA OFF.
RANK DEFENSE
DVOA DEF.
RANK S.T.
DVOA S.T.
RANK
17 BUF 1.5% 10 -0.3% 18 5-3 -6.9% 21 -3.1% 16 5.2% 6
18 TEN -0.2% 20 -0.1% 17 5-3 1.3% 16 4.7% 22 3.3% 12
19 ATL -2.2% 21 -3.1% 19 4-4 12.5% 8 14.4% 29 -0.2% 18
20 OAK -3.9% 19 -3.9% 20 4-5 17.1% 5 23.3% 32 2.3% 13
21 LACH -7.6% 22 -7.6% 22 3-5 0.7% 17 -1.8% 17 -10.1% 32
22 DEN -8.7% 18 -9.2% 23 3-5 -13.8% 25 -12.3% 6 -7.2% 28
23 CIN -8.8% 23 -6.8% 21 3-5 -13.9% 26 -6.0% 14 -0.9% 20
24 NYJ -15.8% 26 -14.5% 24 4-5 -12.1% 23 4.2% 21 0.5% 15
25 TB -21.8% 24 -22.5% 25 2-6 0.2% 18 18.2% 30 -3.8% 23
26 CHI -23.2% 27 -23.4% 26 3-5 -21.8% 31 -6.7% 13 -8.2% 29
27 ARI -25.2% 28 -23.9% 27 4-4 -15.0% 27 0.1% 19 -10.0% 31
28 NYG -26.2% 25 -26.4% 29 1-7 -4.3% 19 12.7% 28 -9.1% 30
29 SF -28.4% 29 -27.6% 30 0-9 -21.0% 30 11.3% 25 4.0% 8
30 IND -28.7% 32 -26.3% 28 3-6 -20.6% 29 11.9% 27 3.8% 10
31 MIA -28.9% 31 -29.0% 31 4-4 -18.2% 28 10.5% 24 -0.2% 19
32 CLE -33.4% 30 -32.9% 32 0-8 -27.4% 32 0.1% 18 -5.9% 27
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA ESTIM.
WINS RANK PAST
SCHED RANK FUTURE
SCHED RANK VAR. RANK
1 LARM 33.0% 6-2 36.4% 7.0 3 -6.1% 29 5.2% 5 15.5% 27
2 PIT 29.3% 6-2 26.6% 6.6 4 1.8% 12 -4.5% 25 9.4% 14
3 PHI 29.2% 8-1 34.4% 7.1 2 -6.7% 30 3.2% 10 10.8% 15
4 JAC 24.9% 5-3 26.5% 5.3 12 3.6% 7 -12.6% 31 30.3% 32
5 NO 23.8% 6-2 23.6% 8.2 1 -2.6% 21 -3.3% 24 11.8% 17
6 MIN 19.2% 6-2 19.3% 6.3 5 0.3% 14 3.8% 8 4.4% 2
7 KC 15.2% 6-3 11.9% 6.3 6 8.5% 3 -12.8% 32 11.8% 16
8 DAL 14.7% 5-3 18.9% 5.8 7 -3.3% 25 4.8% 6 15.1% 24
9 SEA 13.5% 5-3 19.3% 5.4 10 -3.4% 26 2.6% 11 6.8% 8
10 BAL 10.5% 4-5 14.8% 3.9 21 -2.8% 22 -2.1% 22 21.3% 30
11 DET 10.2% 4-4 5.4% 5.5 8 4.3% 6 -9.2% 30 4.3% 1
12 HOU 9.4% 3-5 7.7% 4.7 15 -1.2% 16 1.9% 13 17.2% 28
13 NE 8.2% 6-2 8.0% 4.9 14 1.1% 13 -6.7% 28 8.1% 10
14 CAR 8.0% 6-3 7.6% 5.4 9 -0.3% 15 -2.6% 23 6.0% 5
15 GB 7.4% 4-4 2.2% 5.4 11 5.9% 5 -0.1% 21 8.5% 13
16 WAS 6.2% 4-4 -1.4% 4.2 19 12.8% 1 -4.5% 26 13.3% 20
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA ESTIM.
WINS RANK PAST
SCHED RANK FUTURE
SCHED RANK VAR. RANK
17 BUF 1.5% 5-3 11.1% 4.5 16 -8.6% 32 -4.9% 27 13.6% 21
18 TEN -0.2% 5-3 4.6% 5.1 13 -4.6% 28 0.7% 18 23.0% 31
19 ATL -2.2% 4-4 2.4% 4.4 18 -4.1% 27 7.4% 3 5.6% 4
20 OAK -3.9% 4-5 2.3% 4.5 17 -3.1% 24 3.6% 9 12.6% 18
21 LACH -7.6% 3-5 0.3% 3.1 24 -3.0% 23 1.2% 16 4.6% 3
22 DEN -8.7% 3-5 -4.9% 3.8 22 1.9% 10 -7.1% 29 14.2% 22
23 CIN -8.8% 3-5 -11.9% 4.1 20 2.6% 9 0.5% 19 21.0% 29
24 NYJ -15.8% 4-5 -8.6% 3.4 23 -6.8% 31 2.4% 12 15.4% 26
25 TB -21.8% 2-6 -19.0% 2.9 25 -1.7% 19 0.0% 20 12.9% 19
26 CHI -23.2% 3-5 -27.4% 2.4 26 9.3% 2 0.7% 17 6.7% 7
27 ARI -25.2% 4-4 -18.3% 2.0 27 -2.5% 20 9.3% 2 8.5% 12
28 NYG -26.2% 1-7 -29.5% 1.8 30 7.8% 4 1.8% 14 8.4% 11
29 SF -28.4% 0-9 -30.3% 1.7 31 2.8% 8 4.5% 7 6.2% 6
30 IND -28.7% 3-6 -27.6% 2.0 28 -1.7% 18 9.5% 1 15.0% 23
31 MIA -28.9% 4-4 -23.3% 2.0 29 -1.4% 17 1.5% 15 7.0% 9
32 CLE -33.4% 0-8 -35.8% 1.5 32 1.9% 11 5.3% 4 15.3% 25
Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 07 Nov 2017
DVOA LAST
WEEK WEI.
DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA OFF.
RANK DEFENSE
DVOA DEF.
RANK S.T.
DVOA S.T.
RANK
1 LARM 33.0% 2 32.2% 1 6-2 10.6% 9 -14.8% 3 7.6% 1
2 PIT 29.3% 1 29.7% 2 6-2 16.5% 6 -14.3% 4 -1.4% 21
3 PHI 29.2% 3 29.2% 3 8-1 16.0% 7 -7.8% 10 5.4% 5
4 JAC 24.9% 7 24.0% 5 5-3 7.0% 12 -22.7% 1 -4.8% 26
5 NO 23.8% 5 24.8% 4 6-2 19.3% 3 -9.1% 8 -4.6% 24
6 MIN 19.2% 6 18.8% 6 6-2 9.5% 11 -8.4% 9 1.3% 14
7 KC 15.2% 4 12.9% 9 6-3 20.2% 2 11.6% 26 6.6% 4
8 DAL 14.7% 9 15.0% 7 5-3 18.6% 4 8.4% 23 4.6% 7
9 SEA 13.5% 11 14.8% 8 5-3 3.1% 15 -10.6% 7 -0.1% 17
10 BAL 10.5% 12 9.1% 13 4-5 -13.0% 24 -16.7% 2 6.8% 3
11 DET 10.2% 13 9.4% 12 4-4 -4.7% 20 -7.6% 11 7.3% 2
12 HOU 9.4% 8 9.8% 11 3-5 5.3% 13 -5.7% 15 -1.6% 22
13 NE 8.2% 15 10.3% 10 6-2 25.9% 1 21.3% 31 3.6% 11
14 CAR 8.0% 16 7.5% 14 6-3 -8.8% 22 -12.9% 5 3.9% 9
15 GB 7.4% 17 6.1% 15 4-4 9.5% 10 2.5% 20 0.3% 16
16 WAS 6.2% 14 6.0% 16 4-4 3.5% 14 -7.4% 12 -4.7% 25
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA LAST
WEEK WEI.
DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA OFF.
RANK DEFENSE
DVOA DEF.
RANK S.T.
DVOA S.T.
RANK
17 BUF 1.5% 10 -0.3% 18 5-3 -6.9% 21 -3.1% 16 5.2% 6
18 TEN -0.2% 20 -0.1% 17 5-3 1.3% 16 4.7% 22 3.3% 12
19 ATL -2.2% 21 -3.1% 19 4-4 12.5% 8 14.4% 29 -0.2% 18
20 OAK -3.9% 19 -3.9% 20 4-5 17.1% 5 23.3% 32 2.3% 13
21 LACH -7.6% 22 -7.6% 22 3-5 0.7% 17 -1.8% 17 -10.1% 32
22 DEN -8.7% 18 -9.2% 23 3-5 -13.8% 25 -12.3% 6 -7.2% 28
23 CIN -8.8% 23 -6.8% 21 3-5 -13.9% 26 -6.0% 14 -0.9% 20
24 NYJ -15.8% 26 -14.5% 24 4-5 -12.1% 23 4.2% 21 0.5% 15
25 TB -21.8% 24 -22.5% 25 2-6 0.2% 18 18.2% 30 -3.8% 23
26 CHI -23.2% 27 -23.4% 26 3-5 -21.8% 31 -6.7% 13 -8.2% 29
27 ARI -25.2% 28 -23.9% 27 4-4 -15.0% 27 0.1% 19 -10.0% 31
28 NYG -26.2% 25 -26.4% 29 1-7 -4.3% 19 12.7% 28 -9.1% 30
29 SF -28.4% 29 -27.6% 30 0-9 -21.0% 30 11.3% 25 4.0% 8
30 IND -28.7% 32 -26.3% 28 3-6 -20.6% 29 11.9% 27 3.8% 10
31 MIA -28.9% 31 -29.0% 31 4-4 -18.2% 28 10.5% 24 -0.2% 19
32 CLE -33.4% 30 -32.9% 32 0-8 -27.4% 32 0.1% 18 -5.9% 27
- NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
- ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
- PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
- FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
- VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA ESTIM.
WINS RANK PAST
SCHED RANK FUTURE
SCHED RANK VAR. RANK
1 LARM 33.0% 6-2 36.4% 7.0 3 -6.1% 29 5.2% 5 15.5% 27
2 PIT 29.3% 6-2 26.6% 6.6 4 1.8% 12 -4.5% 25 9.4% 14
3 PHI 29.2% 8-1 34.4% 7.1 2 -6.7% 30 3.2% 10 10.8% 15
4 JAC 24.9% 5-3 26.5% 5.3 12 3.6% 7 -12.6% 31 30.3% 32
5 NO 23.8% 6-2 23.6% 8.2 1 -2.6% 21 -3.3% 24 11.8% 17
6 MIN 19.2% 6-2 19.3% 6.3 5 0.3% 14 3.8% 8 4.4% 2
7 KC 15.2% 6-3 11.9% 6.3 6 8.5% 3 -12.8% 32 11.8% 16
8 DAL 14.7% 5-3 18.9% 5.8 7 -3.3% 25 4.8% 6 15.1% 24
9 SEA 13.5% 5-3 19.3% 5.4 10 -3.4% 26 2.6% 11 6.8% 8
10 BAL 10.5% 4-5 14.8% 3.9 21 -2.8% 22 -2.1% 22 21.3% 30
11 DET 10.2% 4-4 5.4% 5.5 8 4.3% 6 -9.2% 30 4.3% 1
12 HOU 9.4% 3-5 7.7% 4.7 15 -1.2% 16 1.9% 13 17.2% 28
13 NE 8.2% 6-2 8.0% 4.9 14 1.1% 13 -6.7% 28 8.1% 10
14 CAR 8.0% 6-3 7.6% 5.4 9 -0.3% 15 -2.6% 23 6.0% 5
15 GB 7.4% 4-4 2.2% 5.4 11 5.9% 5 -0.1% 21 8.5% 13
16 WAS 6.2% 4-4 -1.4% 4.2 19 12.8% 1 -4.5% 26 13.3% 20
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA ESTIM.
WINS RANK PAST
SCHED RANK FUTURE
SCHED RANK VAR. RANK
17 BUF 1.5% 5-3 11.1% 4.5 16 -8.6% 32 -4.9% 27 13.6% 21
18 TEN -0.2% 5-3 4.6% 5.1 13 -4.6% 28 0.7% 18 23.0% 31
19 ATL -2.2% 4-4 2.4% 4.4 18 -4.1% 27 7.4% 3 5.6% 4
20 OAK -3.9% 4-5 2.3% 4.5 17 -3.1% 24 3.6% 9 12.6% 18
21 LACH -7.6% 3-5 0.3% 3.1 24 -3.0% 23 1.2% 16 4.6% 3
22 DEN -8.7% 3-5 -4.9% 3.8 22 1.9% 10 -7.1% 29 14.2% 22
23 CIN -8.8% 3-5 -11.9% 4.1 20 2.6% 9 0.5% 19 21.0% 29
24 NYJ -15.8% 4-5 -8.6% 3.4 23 -6.8% 31 2.4% 12 15.4% 26
25 TB -21.8% 2-6 -19.0% 2.9 25 -1.7% 19 0.0% 20 12.9% 19
26 CHI -23.2% 3-5 -27.4% 2.4 26 9.3% 2 0.7% 17 6.7% 7
27 ARI -25.2% 4-4 -18.3% 2.0 27 -2.5% 20 9.3% 2 8.5% 12
28 NYG -26.2% 1-7 -29.5% 1.8 30 7.8% 4 1.8% 14 8.4% 11
29 SF -28.4% 0-9 -30.3% 1.7 31 2.8% 8 4.5% 7 6.2% 6
30 IND -28.7% 3-6 -27.6% 2.0 28 -1.7% 18 9.5% 1 15.0% 23
31 MIA -28.9% 4-4 -23.3% 2.0 29 -1.4% 17 1.5% 15 7.0% 9
32 CLE -33.4% 0-8 -35.8% 1.5 32 1.9% 11 5.3% 4 15.3% 25
Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 07 Nov 2017
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-9-dvoa-ratings
