Driverless Cars are Insane.

[Riverumbbq]

A lot of potential cause and affect.

Personal insurance costs going down by a ton, corporate insurance costs skyrocketing.
That expense will be passed on to consumers.
The other side affect would probably be choices. Look at the US auto market in the 70s-80s and TV until pay channels came on line. Both garbage. Why? Lack of choice.
If things like speed limits are governed by the vehicle (which it would be) why have anything with power or anything sporty? If the vehicle is going to be slowly turned in a rolling couch and not much else, well, most of the variety is going to go away. Costs won't go down either.
There was a time when the Pinto or Fiesta ....ugly, under powered and full of cheap plastic parts.....sold millions and Alice was a highly rated TV show. Neither of those would survive (made as they were then) today. Competition is key. If a lot of the things that are selling points now....even if it's silly in reality....are regulated out of cars we will end up with vanilla crap.
I'm not anti corporation generally. But corps need a couple of things to deliver a good product at decent prices....competition is one of the biggest.

I like what the future holds, and there will remain plenty of choices available. Someone mentioned the potential for a driverless car being more like a rolling couch, and I love that idea where I might be allotted more time to study or catch up on work, or even just read the newspaper before getting to the saltmine, ... or how about having a drink on the way home without the worry of a cop around the corner. Many commuter trains already offer these services, why not a driverless vehicle ?
My favorite urban transportation plan would basically eliminate the necessity for personal automobile ownership with driverless rental vehicles associated with a local auto club agency you would belong to which provides any number of choices, whether it be a simple economy car or luxury transport or a truck to move goods around. Imagine having a contract where a car of your choice shows up to take you to work at a specified time every day, and you no longer have the expense or chore of maintenance, cleaning, fuel or insurance, ... your garage is no longer necessary and can be converted into living space or storage space or just plain eliminated as a savings on property taxes. You can take a different vehicle everyday or stick to just one, the choice is yours, ... and you can take the vehicle to meet a subway a mile away or take it across the country, again the choice is yours.
A driverless vehicle can still be as luxurious & stylish as ever or strictly economical, like ownership itself, it's about affordability and personal style, but with the added flexibility of a rental. You will only be paying for the cost of the vehicle while its being used, not for it sitting in a garage. jmo.

 

[fearsomefour]

I like what the future holds, and there will remain plenty of choices available. Someone mentioned the potential for a driverless car being more like a rolling couch, and I love that idea where I might be allotted more time to study or catch up on work, or even just read the newspaper before getting to the saltmine, ... or how about having a drink on the way home without the worry of a cop around the corner. Many commuter trains already offer these services, why not a driverless vehicle ?
My favorite urban transportation plan would basically eliminate the necessity for personal automobile ownership with driverless rental vehicles associated with a local auto club you would belong to which provides any number of choices, whether it be a simple economy car or luxury transport or a truck to move goods around. Imagine having a contract where a car of your choice shows up to take you to work at a specified time every day, and you no longer have the expense or chore of maintenance, cleaning, fuel or insurance, ... your garage is no longer necessary and can be converted into living space or storage space or just plain eliminated as a savings on property taxes. You can take a different vehicle everyday or stick to just one, the choice is yours, ... and you can take the vehicle to meet a subway a mile away or take it across the country, the choice is yours.
A driverless vehicle can still be as luxurious & stylish as ever or strictly economical, like ownership itself, it's about affordability and personal style, but with the added flexibility of a rental. You will only be paying for the cost of the vehicle while its being used, not for it sitting in a garage. jmo.

I suggested the couch thing.
It is interesting to think about.
The luxury options will certainly be there, the sports options will not was my point.
The further things separate cost wise....which always happens.....the basics will become more utilitarian, the luxury more over the top I would suspect.
Whether something like your vision would be more cost affective than owning ones own vehicle would have to be seen. Time would tell on that one.
Said fleet company will push right up to that limit. It would come down to effectiveness of service. Again, time would tell on that.

 

[Loyal]

I like what the future holds, and there will remain plenty of choices available. Someone mentioned the potential for a driverless car being more like a rolling couch, and I love that idea where I might be allotted more time to study or catch up on work, or even just read the newspaper before getting to the saltmine, ... or how about having a drink on the way home without the worry of a cop around the corner. Many commuter trains already offer these services, why not a driverless vehicle ?
My favorite urban transportation plan would basically eliminate the necessity for personal automobile ownership with driverless rental vehicles associated with a local auto club you would belong to which provides any number of choices, whether it be a simple economy car or luxury transport or a truck to move goods around. Imagine having a contract where a car of your choice shows up to take you to work at a specified time every day, and you no longer have the expense or chore of maintenance, cleaning, fuel or insurance, ... your garage is no longer necessary and can be converted into living space or storage space or just plain eliminated as a savings on property taxes. You can take a different vehicle everyday or stick to just one, the choice is yours, ... and you can take the vehicle to meet a subway a mile away or take it across the country, the choice is yours.
A driverless vehicle can still be as luxurious & stylish as ever or strictly economical, like ownership itself, it's about affordability and personal style, but with the added flexibility of a rental. You will only be paying for the cost of the vehicle while its being used, not for it sitting in a garage. jmo.

Intellectually, I understand your points about the relaxation part of being driven by a machine. It SHOULD be relaxing. But as for me, I can't sleep in a car, truck, or bus without waking with the horrific fear of falling asleep at the wheel. I'll wake up grabbing for a non-existent steering wheel in horror. Being responsible for other peoples lives while driving motor coaches was not something I took lightly and could not have forgiven myself if I had hurt even one due to a mistake of mine. My wife encouraged me a few years back to give up driving and to go back to college and get my degree, because she feared for me. I'd be doing cross country New York City to Los Angeles tours with foreigners and during the 5 month season I might sleep in my own bed for a couple of nights during that time. Unfortunately, this was how you made money in the Midwest driving a tour bus. Don't get me wrong, I loved doing it for a lot of years, but I finally burned out and got out of the business. I see buses nowadays and I feel relief that I don't have to do it anymore.

But having said that, I quit driving professionally in 2009, and I still can't sleep in a vehicle without reaching for a steering wheel. Couple that with the mistakes I've seen with GPS units, I don't trust them fully enough to let go of the wheel.

 

[Riverumbbq]

I suggested the couch thing.
It is interesting to think about.
The luxury options will certainly be there, the sports options will not was my point.
The further things separate cost wise....which always happens.....the basics will become more utilitarian, the luxury more over the top I would suspect.
Whether something like your vision would be more cost affective than owning ones own vehicle would have to be seen. Time would tell on that one.
Said fleet company will push right up to that limit. It would come down to effectiveness of service. Again, time would tell on that.

Love the couch thing, being a potato at heart.

Agreed that the driverless Ferrari is not the likely future here for the average commuter, but in this future, if you can afford that mode of transportation, you will be able to afford to pay the taxes & surcharges associated with environmentally unfriendly piston engines. Life 30 years from now is going to be very different, even for those who struggle with change. Imagine how our grandparents dealt with computers & the internet at their inception.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Intellectually, I understand your points about the relaxation part of being driven by a machine. It SHOULD be relaxing. But as for me, I can't sleep in a car, truck, or bus without waking with the horrific fear of falling asleep at the wheel. I'll wake up grabbing for a non-existent steering wheel in horror. Being responsible for other peoples lives while driving motor coaches was not something I took lightly and could not have forgiven myself if I had hurt even one due to a mistake of mine. My wife encouraged me a few years back to give up driving and to go back to college and get my degree, because she feared for me. I'd be doing cross country New York City to Los Angeles tours with foreigners and during the 5 month season I might sleep in my own bed for a couple of nights during that time. Unfortunately, this was how you made money in the Midwest driving a tour bus. Don't get me wrong, I loved doing it for a lot of years, but I finally burned out and got out of the business. I see buses nowadays and I feel relief that I don't have to do it anymore.

But having said that, I quit driving professionally in 2009, and I still can't sleep in a vehicle without reaching for a steering wheel. Couple that with the mistakes I've seen with GPS units, I don't trust them fully enough to let go of the wheel.

I can understand your personal apprehension, and although this driverless technology is relatively new, try to imagine it once it becomes the norm, because in 20-30 years, the tech will be far beyond where we are today. It may not be the Jetson's quite yet, but we approach that sophistication daily. I'm too old to altogether appreciate what is coming, but I am all for building the transportation infrastructure required to accelerate the economic growth which will eventually come with it. jmo.

 

[coconut]

Imagine how our grandparents dealt with computers & the internet at their inception.

They didn't deal with either.

 

[fearsomefour]

Love the couch thing, being a potato at heart.

Agreed that the driverless Ferrari is not the likely future here for the average commuter, but in this future, if you can afford that mode of transportation, you will be able to afford to pay the taxes & surcharges associated with environmentally unfriendly piston engines. Life 30 years from now is going to be very different, even for those who struggle with change. Imagine how our grandparents dealt with computers & the internet at their inception.

30 years ago....no internet or smart phone. We aren't having this conversation.

 

[Riverumbbq]

They didn't deal with either.

I suppose if you are my age or older that may be true, but some of us may have asked our 5 year old grandkids for help. :baghead:

 

[Riverumbbq]

30 years ago....no internet or smart phone. We aren't having this conversation.

True, but Bill Gates and Paul Allen were, and that was over 40 years ago if you can believe how time flies. Those guys were changing the world while I was smoking pot and cruising my Harley.

 

[fearsomefour]

True, but Bill Gates and Paul Allen were, and that was over 40 years ago if you can believe how time flies. Those guys were changing the world while I was smoking pot and cruising my Harley.

NERDS!!

 

[Akrasian]

I like what the future holds, and there will remain plenty of choices available. Someone mentioned the potential for a driverless car being more like a rolling couch, and I love that idea where I might be allotted more time to study or catch up on work, or even just read the newspaper before getting to the saltmine, ... or how about having a drink on the way home without the worry of a cop around the corner. Many commuter trains already offer these services, why not a driverless vehicle ?
My favorite urban transportation plan would basically eliminate the necessity for personal automobile ownership with driverless rental vehicles associated with a local auto club agency you would belong to which provides any number of choices, whether it be a simple economy car or luxury transport or a truck to move goods around. Imagine having a contract where a car of your choice shows up to take you to work at a specified time every day, and you no longer have the expense or chore of maintenance, cleaning, fuel or insurance, ... your garage is no longer necessary and can be converted into living space or storage space or just plain eliminated as a savings on property taxes. You can take a different vehicle everyday or stick to just one, the choice is yours, ... and you can take the vehicle to meet a subway a mile away or take it across the country, again the choice is yours.
A driverless vehicle can still be as luxurious & stylish as ever or strictly economical, like ownership itself, it's about affordability and personal style, but with the added flexibility of a rental. You will only be paying for the cost of the vehicle while its being used, not for it sitting in a garage. jmo.

Great answer. Besides what you said, what hasn't been said yet is that historically roads and their maintenance have been paid for by registration fees and fuel taxes - but that hasn't been working for a while now, requiring larger and larger subsidies by the rest of the population - and it will only get worse as more cars go electric. At some point those who want to be free to drive will have to pay higher registrations, and likely have to pay for where they drive, to maintain the roads - either with more intrusive monitoring of their mileage, or with tolls everywhere. The alternative is to have the rest of the population subsidize their "freedom", which sounds like tyranny to me. At some point (probably reached already for many, especially in urban areas) people will be saving money by these auto drive rental cars.

Even though the AIs will be limited to the speed limit, in urban areas having chains of AI cars driving will save time, especially during rush hour. Most traffic jams are caused by inexpert drivers trying to save 30 seconds, eff everybody else, with the chain effect adding a few seconds per vehicle until cars are at a standstill - that will be reduced or eliminated. Not so much in rural areas (and I know those - I had to regularly drive my wife to Chemo 40 miles each way - and yes, she would often comment on my speeding).

 

[Riverumbbq]

Great answer. Besides what you said, what hasn't been said yet is that historically roads and their maintenance have been paid for by registration fees and fuel taxes - but that hasn't been working for a while now, requiring larger and larger subsidies by the rest of the population - and it will only get worse as more cars go electric. At some point those who want to be free to drive will have to pay higher registrations, and likely have to pay for where they drive, to maintain the roads - either with more intrusive monitoring of their mileage, or with tolls everywhere. The alternative is to have the rest of the population subsidize their "freedom", which sounds like tyranny to me. At some point (probably reached already for many, especially in urban areas) people will be saving money by these auto drive rental cars.

Even though the AIs will be limited to the speed limit, in urban areas having chains of AI cars driving will save time, especially during rush hour. Most traffic jams are caused by inexpert drivers trying to save 30 seconds, eff everybody else, with the chain effect adding a few seconds per vehicle until cars are at a standstill - that will be reduced or eliminated. Not so much in rural areas (and I know those - I had to regularly drive my wife to Chemo 40 miles each way - and yes, she would often comment on my speeding).

Once the entire urban transportation grid becomes more electronic, GPS & other scanning methods can automatically signal your driverless vehicle a less time consuming route, eliminating much of the wasted time which occurs today. Unlike many other countries and our own north-east corridor, we here in the states have been far more reluctant to give up our cars for high speed rail and subways, but as slow as it is happening, it is, and once people realize all the expenses associated with personal vehicle ownership, licensing, yearly registration, fossil fuel surcharges for gasoline & diesel, rising insurance rates and maintenance, eventually the affordability threshold will be passed and the realities of cheaper rapid transit will drive an entirely new way for Americans to do business. The combination of urban high speed light rail & subway systems along with fleets of driverless cars may remove much of the need for expensive major new highways & freeways. Maintenance will always be with us, but funding big new infrastructure projects are more likely to go towards high speed rail & subways than for highway spending imo. I also don't believe the long slow-moving conveyor movable pedestrian sidewalks (autowalks) are that many years away either in many major metropolitan areas, and this alone could eliminate many short distance bus rides. Another benefit of a driverless rental vehicle would likely spell the end of taxis & Uber as we know it. Young people drove and continue to drive computer & internet tech, young people will also drive the way we look at how transportation evolves in the future. jmo.

 

[Ramhusker]

Once the entire urban transportation grid becomes more electronic, GPS & other scanning methods can automatically signal your driverless vehicle a less time consuming route, eliminating much of the wasted time which occurs today. Unlike many other countries and our own north-east corridor, we here in the states have been far more reluctant to give up our cars for high speed rail and subways, but as slow as it is happening, it is, and once people realize all the expenses associated with personal vehicle ownership, licensing, yearly registration, fossil fuel surcharges for gasoline & diesel, rising insurance rates and maintenance, eventually the affordability threshold will be passed and the realities of cheaper rapid transit will drive an entirely new way for Americans to do business. The combination of urban high speed light rail & subway systems along with fleets of driverless cars may remove much of the need for expensive major new highways & freeways. Maintenance will always be with us, but funding big new infrastructure projects are more likely to go towards high speed rail & subways than for highway spending imo. I also don't believe the long slow-moving conveyor movable pedestrian sidewalks (autowalks) are that many years away either in many major metropolitan areas, and this alone could eliminate many short distance bus rides. Another benefit of a driverless rental vehicle would likely spell the end of taxis & Uber as we know it. Young people drove and continue to drive computer & internet tech, young people will also drive the way we look at how transportation evolves in the future. jmo.

Major problem being our rails in this country are in bad shape. Amtrak is a disgrace so I suppose any viable rail system will have to come from the private sector.

 

[Ramhusker]

Intellectually, I understand your points about the relaxation part of being driven by a machine. It SHOULD be relaxing. But as for me, I can't sleep in a car, truck, or bus without waking with the horrific fear of falling asleep at the wheel. I'll wake up grabbing for a non-existent steering wheel in horror. Being responsible for other peoples lives while driving motor coaches was not something I took lightly and could not have forgiven myself if I had hurt even one due to a mistake of mine. My wife encouraged me a few years back to give up driving and to go back to college and get my degree, because she feared for me. I'd be doing cross country New York City to Los Angeles tours with foreigners and during the 5 month season I might sleep in my own bed for a couple of nights during that time. Unfortunately, this was how you made money in the Midwest driving a tour bus. Don't get me wrong, I loved doing it for a lot of years, but I finally burned out and got out of the business. I see buses nowadays and I feel relief that I don't have to do it anymore.

But having said that, I quit driving professionally in 2009, and I still can't sleep in a vehicle without reaching for a steering wheel. Couple that with the mistakes I've seen with GPS units, I don't trust them fully enough to let go of the wheel.

I had a buddy tell me the other day his Uber driver fell asleep at the wheel driving him to the airport and cleaned out a ditch. Had to call another driver and almost missed his flight. :shocked:

 

[RamFan503]

You sure get triggered lately when I offer different perspectives. Maybe change your avatar to this:

Not sure how you got that he directed his comment at you in particular. It seemed to flow with the subject and other comments. Not to wag my finger but don't make your posts personal. It's not all about you - y'know.

Back to the subject, my brother bought a Tesla and I got to drive it the other day. It is very odd to let it drive itself. As someone else said though, you have to at least nudge the wheel regularly to prove you are not asleep at the wheel. You have to activate it at this point and I would guess that it will be that way for some time. Required driverless vehicles are quite a ways off by my guess. I really think the goal is more to have driverless deliveries and that will get interesting. Sucks for truck drivers. Driverless cars are probably farther off if for no other reason than cities losing revenue streams by issuing tickets and jail time for various driver violations that a computer simply won't commit.

My Passat has assisted cruise control and I love it. I drive the I-5 corridor between Sacramento and LA quite a bit. It really can be a hair raising event. But with assisted cruise control, I can set it on the closest setting and not worry about someone diving in front of me. It will literally stop the car if it has to and it will slow the car immediately if someone is an asshole. It makes for a much more relaxed me when driving in traffic like that. 85 MPH traffic is still relaxing. I like that.

And clearly you haven't driven with @Dieter the Brock because you would really appreciate that he has that feature.

 

[RamFan503]

Major problem being our rails in this country are in bad shape. Amtrak is a disgrace so I suppose any viable rail system will have to come from the private sector.

Amtrak out west is a real joke at times. I took my wife and kids from Portland to Seattle - a 4 hour train ride - it was 8 1/2 hours late. It was for her 40th birthday and we had a sitter scheduled to watch the kids so we could hit the town, I had a table reserved for all of us on the dining cart, Hotel, etc... Then.... we took the train from Corvallis, OR to Paso Robles, CA. That is a 12 - 13 hour drive and scheduled to be a 23 hour train ride. No problem with the 23 hours on the train. We had it scheduled and just wanted to have fun on the train with the kids. Unfortunately, it was almost 26 hours late. Yes... we wasted a full day of our vacation sitting in train stations and where ever there was a split track so we could watch a freighter go by. Haven't taken Amtrak since.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Major problem being our rails in this country are in bad shape. Amtrak is a disgrace so I suppose any viable rail system will have to come from the private sector.

Yes, it is shameful how neglected passenger rail is in America today. It's actually an embarrassment for me when I read about or visit modern train systems in China, Japan & Europe, while we still use antiquated rolling stock and that passenger trains have to rent track time from freight companies. Keep in mind the amount of dollar subsidies given to automobile and airline travel where passenger rail receives very little by comparison. Outside of the North-East corridor, Freight owns all the track, and this track is handicapped as it is laid out in a manner quite unsuitable for high speed train travel. Amtrak is also forced to operate extremely unprofitable cross country routes at the expense of more profitable regional routes. Freight doesn't want Amtrak using its track and Amtrak is constantly delayed by slow moving freight which they often must follow. Amtrak is a political football, airline and automobile manufacturers/operators supply highly paid lobbyists who wish to kill competition. Regional Subway and Metrolink light rail has become extremely successful and removes 10's of thousands of automobiles daily from our streets and highways, yet Amtrak remains a slow, underfunded out of date experience whose progress is regularly stymied by Washington politicians.

 

[BonifayRam]

I have no idea why with the US Interstate System already in place.....that a passenger rail service could not be blended together with vehicles for long-range travel.

One of my most treasured memories was riding the California Zephyr from San Fransicko to Salt Lake City. I also rode the Sante Fe train in the early '60s twice from San Jose CA to Johnson City TN.

https://www.cvsr.org/ride-in-vintage-california-zephyr-train-cars-this-winter/

https://santafe.gmbus.com/

 

[LesBaker]

He.ll, I don't trust anti-skid braking systems because I know what I can do on snow/ice after many winters over snow and ice covered roads/mountain passes.

Driving in snow is tricky.

Even worse is black ice.

For those who don't know what that is I will explain. It's when the blacktop looks clear, but it's got a thin layer of ice on it. It's even worse when it's got a little water on top. Wet ice is the slipperiest thing I've ever experienced in all my years of driving, you have mo control at all.

Driving = freedom. If you don't think so, wait till you tell a loved one that they can't drive when their eyesight and reflexes are too impaired by age to do so safely anymore.

I've had this conversation with people that have had parents lose the ability to drive and not only does it cost them their freedom it becomes a bit of extra work for the family to get them around to things like the store, the doctor and so on. So maybe self driving cars would be good in this case.

 

[Mackeyser]

Here’s the reality: driverless cars are going to be THE thing. Car ownership in 10 years is going to be rare and it won’t exist except for collectibles in 20. Bank on it.

There are literally BILLIONS being poured into “cars as a service”.

Effectively, there is likely to be at least three tiers:

1) Service membership where you have 100% use of the vehicle, it’ll domicile with you and use a designated parking spot after dropping you off at work, grocery or wherever you went. It’ll then pick you up, drop you off and park itself where you’ve designated. This is where Mercedes, BMW, Volvo, Ford, GM are aiming.

2) Service membership where you have A car at your disposal when you need it. It’ll pick you up at a designated tome and drop you off. Another of a fleet of similar vehicles will pick you up and drop you off, etc. The car will simply be in constant use until it isn’t needed and it will return to a depot lot until it is needed. This is where Uber is aiming.

3) Service membership where you have what amounts to a ride sharing service.
You may be carpooling to work or the grocery, but it’s a relatively direct path. There may be different tiers with unlimited use and another with limited uses. I can see a lot of public transportation being redirected toward subsidizing these kinds of services for elderly passengers as it’s way more efficient than current van services. Medical vans would still have a person on board for loading and assistance, they just wouldn’t be driving.

Also, expect for municipalities including super congested areas to be “driverless zones”. Areas like lower Manhattan, downtown LA, etc.

And here’s how it’s going to happen.

Once Level 4 automation is out... and it’s only 1-3 years since away, the actuarial tables will show such a staggering difference between the safety of autonomous vehicles versus driven cars that the insurance rates to drive will spike...obscenely. It will be untenable for people of modest means to drive.

Essentially, it will be insurance that drives the change. It WILL happen...and soon.

You’ll have no choice. It’s not just coming, it’s already been decided. It’s here and in beta and it’s only a question of WHEN it happens.

Wife and I bought a 2018 Honda Accord Hybrid Touring and it’s an amazing ride. And... we’re clear it’s the last car we’ll ever buy.

The only thing everyone from Tesla to Uber to Hertz is trying to work out are the logistics.

This is the most inevitable change since the adoption of the automobile and it’ll happen faster. MUCH faster. Bank on it.