Drafting a QB

[jrry32]

I agree with the original poster. Sure, the QB is one of, if not the most important position. However, team needs don't influence player availability. The Rams would be foolish to force a pick in the first round if the talent isn't available at their selection.

You're right. The Rams would be foolish if the talent isn't available. But the Rams would be even more foolish not to trade up when the talent is available.

 

[Tron]

I would trade our 2016 #1, a 2016 #2, a 2017 #1, a 2017 #3 and some late round picks if it let us get Goff. Hell, I'd do 2016 1st and 3rd, 2017 1st and 3rd and 2018 1st. Yes three 1st round picks and two 3rds. Id like to keep our seconds this year and use em both on Wr's or wr/TE. But regardless. Id give up an RG3 like trade for him. He is going to be special. Hes not as tall or heavy and doesnt have the cannon Lynch has, but his footwork and ball placement and mechanics are head and shoulders better than anyone else in the draft, even better than many in the NFL.

 

[Merlin]

Funny thing is that the Redskins are winning with their 4th round selected QB and not the guy they sold out everything to get in the 1st round.

Yes, and that happens. But round by round chances of hitting dip considerably.

Oh and for the record I'm not even saying that their 4th round QB is a long term answer, just that he's good enough to elevate them to our level with a lesser roster and that's how important the position is.

Anyway. For all we know Mannion might be a future hall of famer and the Rams can get away with going BPA this year, but it's not likely. This team has to load more talent on this roster at QB and the best way to do it is early in the draft. One of these 4 guys might slip to late first or early second round, but when your need is as bad as the Rams it's too risky to play games. Identify which guy you want, then move the F up and get him.

 

[Merlin]

I would trade our 2016 #1, a 2016 #2, a 2017 #1, a 2017 #3 and some late round picks if it let us get Goff. Hell, I'd do 2016 1st and 3rd, 2017 1st and 3rd and 2018 1st. Yes three 1st round picks and two 3rds. Id like to keep our seconds this year and use em both on Wr's or wr/TE. But regardless. Id give up an RG3 like trade for him. He is going to be special. Hes not as tall or heavy and doesnt have the cannon Lynch has, but his footwork and ball placement and mechanics are head and shoulders better than anyone else in the draft, even better than many in the NFL.

I would too, Tron. But I do gotta say that IF that happened it would put even more emphasis on ensuring the right guys are on staff to maximize Goff at this level. This team looks like they're at a perfect point in time for that type of move with a young OL that is going to improve, and the Rams have two 2nd round picks to add WR or TE talent that should be available to help him out.

 

[Robert]

@jrry32 how much of a difference is there from lets say Connor Cook to Wentz or even Lynch and Goff to Wentz. I guess my question would be if you could stay pat at lets say 18 and take Wentz and get guys like Boyd, Henry TE, and Wright Mlb, in your next 2 rounds would you???? Or is there that much of a drop off between the Qbs that you think we have to trade up and possibly lose out on some of the guys i named going in the 2nd and 3rd round. This is what it comes down to imo.

 

[jrry32]

@jrry32 how much of a difference is there from lets say Connor Cook to Wentz or even Lynch and Goff to Wentz. I guess my question would be if you could stay pat at lets say 18 and take Wentz and get guys like Boyd, Henry TE, and Wright Mlb, in your next 2 rounds would you???? Or is there that much of a drop off between the Qbs that you think we have to trade up and possibly lose out on some of the guys i named going in the 2nd and 3rd round. This is what it comes down to imo.

I'd trade up for Goff. I like Wentz but he's a much bigger risk and not a prospect that I think is NFL ready.

 

[Memphis Ram]

You're right. The Rams would be foolish if the talent isn't available. But the Rams would be even more foolish not to trade up when the talent is available.

Of course, that depends upon the price and the talent.

 

[Memphis Ram]

I would trade our 2016 #1, a 2016 #2, a 2017 #1, a 2017 #3 and some late round picks if it let us get Goff. Hell, I'd do 2016 1st and 3rd, 2017 1st and 3rd and 2018 1st. Yes three 1st round picks and two 3rds. Id like to keep our seconds this year and use em both on Wr's or wr/TE. But regardless. Id give up an RG3 like trade for him. He is going to be special. Hes not as tall or heavy and doesnt have the cannon Lynch has, but his footwork and ball placement and mechanics are head and shoulders better than anyone else in the draft, even better than many in the NFL.

And if others believe that Goff is as good as you seem to believe, it's going to take even more than that to move up from the mid to late teens. Remember, when the Redskins made their move, they were just moving up from #6 to #2. To date, the Rams would be trying to move up from #18.

 

[Stel]

And if others believe that Goff is as good as you seem to believe, it's going to take even more than that to move up from the mid to late teens. Remember, when the Redskins made their move, they were just moving up from #6 to #2. To date, the Rams would be trying to move up from #18.

Let's look at that trade with Washington (and I'm one that thinks Washington gave up too much). It wasn't that much of a premium over the numbers on the trade value table.

St. Louis gave the #2 pick to Washington. #2 is worth 2,600 points.
Washington sent #6 (1,600 points), #39 (510 points), and their #1s for the next two years. Therefore, Washington received a total of 2,600 points; St. Louis received 2110 points plus two future picks. It is the future picks which are harder to value.

Since you don't know what the team's draft position will be in future years, there is some guesswork involved. For the sake of this analysis, lets assume a middle of the round pick, #16. From what I have read, a pick one year in the future is valued at one-half its value in the current year, the pick two years in the future is valued even lower. For the sack of argument, let's put its value at one-fourth (half of a half). The #16 pick is worth 1,000 points so one year in the future, it would be worth 500. St. Louis would now be at a total of 2610 plus the extra two years in the future pick, which I value at 250 points, giving St. Louis 2860 total to Washington's 2600, the difference being the equivalent of the #66 pick in the current year's draft. A premium, but not a huge premium. I've always thought that the only "gouge" of Washington in that trade was the #1 pick two years in the future. The rest of the trade was even.

What gives St. Louis the ability to make a move is that extra second this year. That pick is essentially the same value as the #16 pick next year. Right now, our #1 and the two #2s are worth a total of about 1810 points, or the number #4 pick this year. Throw in our first rounder next year and we get that total up to 2310, or a bit more than the #3 pick is worth. If St. Louis wants to make the deal, they have the capital to do so, although the cost to get the #1 pick might not be worth it.

Look at San Francisco (who many think would be our main competition to move up for Goff). San Francisco's #1 and #2 are worth a total of 1960, which puts them barely ahead of us (equivalent to a late 3rd round pick) before spending future picks. We can beat them in a trade deal if we want to do so.

 

[12intheBox]

2016 #1, #2, #2
2017 #1

A hefty price to pay but - unless we have a real answer at QB elsewhere, I believe I'd pay it.

 

[JoeBo21]

I feel like Goff will end up in SF and we'll continue to be in purgatory forever

 

[FrantikRam]

With Fisher likely staying, I really doubt that we draft a QB. With our roster the way it's been constructed, I think he'll try to go the way of the 2008 Titans - 13-3 record with Kerry Collins due to dominate run game and great defense. I will not be happy if that happens, BUT I think we could really stack our roster by drafting some play makers at WR/TE and another OL for depth.

 

[LACHAMP46]

if we could get Goff with our first and a 2nd, do in N::Y second
train

it'll take a swap of 1st this year (2016) + the 2nd (maybe both), and next years 1st....that's the going rate for top 10 picks...maybe if he falls we can just spend a 1st and a 2nd....
And Lynch is making Goff look more valuable...

 

[Athos]

With Fisher likely staying, I really doubt that we draft a QB. With our roster the way it's been constructed, I think he'll try to go the way of the 2008 Titans - 13-3 record with Kerry Collins due to dominate run game and great defense. I will not be happy if that happens, BUT I think we could really stack our roster by drafting some play makers at WR/TE and another OL for depth.

I'd travel to the Lou to kick Fisher in the ass if he passes on legitimate upgrades to the WB position and he'll never ever win me over again. And I just may give up on the NFL.

 

[nighttrain]

it'll take a swap of 1st this year (2016) + the 2nd (maybe both), and next years 1st....that's the going rate for top 10 picks...maybe if he falls we can just spend a 1st and a 2nd....
And Lynch is making Goff look more valuable...

do it, tired of mediocre or worse QB play
train

 

[blackbart]

No way in hell I give 3 #1s and end up in draft day hell for that long, there is no player worth that. I have seen some people listing Goff as the number 2 QB, and definitely not the #1 overall pick. Fuck that.

This team needs stability and a way to replace guys that are likely to move on after their rookie contracts. The Rams are not going to be a team throwing the ball 35 times a game unless they are in a ass kicking. Giving up the farm for a maybe guy is a good way to stay outside the playoffs. No thanks.

 

[jrry32]

No way in hell I give 3 #1s and end up in draft day hell for that long, there is no player worth that. I have seen some people listing Goff as the number 2 QB, and definitely not the #1 overall pick. freak that.

This team needs stability and a way to replace guys that are likely to move on after their rookie contracts. The Rams are not going to be a team throwing the ball 35 times a game unless they are in a ass kicking. Giving up the farm for a maybe guy is a good way to stay outside the playoffs. No thanks.

There are absolutely players worth it.(I hope you're not telling me that you wouldn't trade 3 1st round picks for Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson or Cam Newton or etc.) I don't care where some people list Goff. He's worth it. The Rams need to go get him.

Sticking with mediocrity at QB is a good way to stay outside the playoffs. The best way to make the playoffs and win a Super Bowl? Find a franchise QB.

 

[blackbart]

There are absolutely players worth it.(I hope you're not telling me that you wouldn't trade 3 1st round picks for Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson or Cam Newton or etc.) I don't care where some people list Goff. He's worth it. The Rams need to go get him.

Sticking with mediocrity at QB is a good way to stay outside the playoffs. The best way to make the playoffs and win a Super Bowl? Find a franchise QB.

I would not argue with the last statement.

Wilson wasn't a 1st round pick so apparently I would not be alone in saying no I would not trade that kind of capitol for him. Aaron Rogers the guy that fell to #24? Would you have made the RGIII deal that the skins made? I was laughing at them back then and still think they were completely insane.

Using hind sight after a guy has been in the league for years and has shown what their production might be isn't available to any of the teams.

All of those teams were in completely different situations than the Rams. Do the Rams have their QB of the future? Will Mannion ever be as good as Alex Smith? Blake Bortels? Jim Everett? Who knows has hasn't played yet. Can they take try at a QB with a first sure but do they package 3 1st and who knows what to take a flyer on someone who might develop? No thanks. Goff is not that guy. I know you think he is and that's fine but I'd rather not see them go that way.

 

[jrry32]

I would not argue with the last statement.

Wilson wasn't a 1st round pick so apparently I would not be alone in saying no I would not trade that kind of capitol for him. Aaron Rogers the guy that fell to #24? Would you have made the RGIII deal that the skins made? I was laughing at them back then and still think they were completely insane.

I don't care where they were drafted. I'm asking about today. Would you be willing to trade 3 1sts and a 2nd for Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson or Cam Newton or Andrew Luck today?

Using hind sight after a guy has been in the league for years and has shown what their production might be isn't available to any of the teams.

Nope, it isn't available. But there's no guarantee we hit on any first round pick. I'll bet on Goff. I'm fine with taking other QBs in this draft. But I'd give up an RGIII deal for Goff if it was available. He's going to be worth it.

All of those teams were in completely different situations than the Rams. Do the Rams have their QB of the future? Will Mannion ever be as good as Alex Smith? Blake Bortels? Jim Everett? Who knows has hasn't played yet. Can they take try at a QB with a first sure but do they package 3 1st and who knows what to take a flyer on someone who might develop? No thanks. Goff is not that guy. I know you think he is and that's fine but I'd rather not see them go that way.

No. Mannion is not Blake Bortles or Alex Smith. He's a statute. Is it possible he'll be a good QB? Sure. But I'm not betting our future on it. I will bet our future on Goff.

The Rams are in the perfect situation to bet on Goff. They received a ton of picks from the Redskins. They can take the risk. The team is on the cusp of being a Super Bowl contender. Give this team a top tier QB and we'll win a Super Bowl.

 

[blackbart]

I don't care where they were drafted. I'm asking about today. Would you be willing to trade 3 1sts and a 2nd for Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson or Cam Newton or Andrew Luck today?.

I don't think I would. I know it sounds crazy because they are talented. But giving up the chance for 3 first round talents and a second to get them? I don't think there is anyone THAT talented.