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http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/stor...h-mark-sanchez-threatens-drag-entire-team-nfl
In some of the boldest NFL moves from 2015, the Denver Broncos fired four-time division-winning coach John Fox, pushed Peyton Manning into a foreign offense and then brought Manning off the bench for the playoffs, jettisoning the heir to his quarterback throne. Now, for an encore, the Broncos will defend their Super Bowl title with Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch as their quarterbacks.
Stats say the Broncos could be no worse on offense in 2016, a reflection of how low the bar was set last season, when Manning finished with 11 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions in 12 starts, counting playoffs. Denver could realistically improve on offense if its line trends toward average following a particularly rough season. But to hear seasoned NFL coaches tell it, the Broncos' new quarterback room threatens to drag down the team more than numbers would suggest, making Denver more vulnerable than at any point since John Elway's first year as general manager, when Tim Tebow was the starting quarterback and the team finished 8-8.
"Me telling you they are not going to repeat is not a huge deal," one NFL coach said. "I am telling you it is going to be a complete strain."
Elway and the Broncos have often gotten the last laugh in these discussions. They can do it again eventually if Lynch develops into the quarterback they think he can become down the line. Can they contend in the meantime?
"No," a veteran coordinator said. "They will win maybe 10 games, and they will get beat in the playoffs as soon as they have to throw the ball to win."
That was supposed to happen last season, but the Denver defense would not allow it. The Broncos gave up 17.9 points per game, counting playoffs. Manning had a 10-2 starting record despite throwing those 18 picks in his dozen starts. That low statistical bar is where the hope for Denver lies in 2016.
Sanchez as the 2015 Peyton
The chart below compares Manning's stats from his 12 starts last season to the 12 most recent starts for Sanchez, which date to late in the 2013 season with Philadelphia. The comparison suggests Denver could swap in Sanchez and possibly even come out ahead as long as its defense kept the scoring bar low enough.
New York Jets from 2009-2010 despite a 40.9 QBR score that suggested he played about as well as he did while going 4-8 with the Eagles more recently. The Jets scored 22.0 points per game while allowing a Denver-like 17.3 over those two seasons with Sanchez, helping to deliver New York into the AFC Championship Game both years. The Jets couldn't play well enough on defense for long enough to keep winning with Sanchez.
Filling the Peyton vacuum
The 2015 Broncos overcame their offensive deficiencies without disintegrating from within. The massive equity Manning accrued during a record-setting run with the Broncos might have helped them persevere. Sanchez and Lynch have none of that, which is where coaches see a distinction they consider to be a significant variable over the course of a full season.
"Peyton Manning controls the atmosphere of your building, period," the coordinator said. "Mark Sanchez goes with whatever the atmosphere is. There is going to be a lot more placed on the offensive coaches and the head coach to create the atmosphere desired, because it won't come from the quarterback position. Sanchez will be so vastly less than what they are accustomed to."
Matt Schaub was the quarterback, not Manning. He was in Baltimore when Joe Flacco enjoyed the finest regular season of the quarterback's career.
What are the odds?
Osweiler showed no interest in returning to Denver once the Broncos benched him for the playoffs and then let him hit the market. He quickly bolted for Houston to accept a contract featuring $37 million guaranteed over the next two seasons.
Las Vegas is not panicking. Denver's odds for winning the Super Bowl have actually improved from 20-1 in January to 16-1 after the draft, according to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. The Broncos are 3-2 favorites to win the AFC West ahead of Kansas City (8-5), Oakland (7-2) and San Diego (8-1). When it comes to winning the AFC, only New England (3-1), Pittsburgh (4-1) and Cincinnati (7-1) face shorter odds than Denver (8-1) faces in Vegas' eyes.
"They might go 9-7," a veteran defensive coach said. "They are not a defending Super Bowl champion as much as they are a defending get-by, ride-the-defense team. This isn't Seattle or New England."
The Broncos' defense should be formidable once again. The clock ticks while the offense plays catch-up.
Some of the greatest NFL defenses cracked when asked to carry their offenses for extended periods. The 1985 Chicago Bears never made it back to the Super Bowl once injuries to Jim McMahon forced them to play with backup quarterbacks too frequently. The ball-hawking defenses Lovie Smith built in Chicago two decades later reached one Super Bowl with Rex Grossman at quarterback, but never another. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens and 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers won championships with era-defining defenses, but offensive shortcomings derailed their attempts at building dynasties.
"Oakland is going to pick up those wins they don't get, and Kansas City will still be in the same win bracket," the coordinator said. "At least they have the optimism in the building with the second quarterback, the rookie. There is some certainty to where they are going in the future, which is halfway brilliant considering the situation they just went through with Manning and Osweiler. It sucks because you've been a Super Bowl team, but it is the best they could do."
In some of the boldest NFL moves from 2015, the Denver Broncos fired four-time division-winning coach John Fox, pushed Peyton Manning into a foreign offense and then brought Manning off the bench for the playoffs, jettisoning the heir to his quarterback throne. Now, for an encore, the Broncos will defend their Super Bowl title with Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch as their quarterbacks.
Stats say the Broncos could be no worse on offense in 2016, a reflection of how low the bar was set last season, when Manning finished with 11 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions in 12 starts, counting playoffs. Denver could realistically improve on offense if its line trends toward average following a particularly rough season. But to hear seasoned NFL coaches tell it, the Broncos' new quarterback room threatens to drag down the team more than numbers would suggest, making Denver more vulnerable than at any point since John Elway's first year as general manager, when Tim Tebow was the starting quarterback and the team finished 8-8.
"Me telling you they are not going to repeat is not a huge deal," one NFL coach said. "I am telling you it is going to be a complete strain."
Elway and the Broncos have often gotten the last laugh in these discussions. They can do it again eventually if Lynch develops into the quarterback they think he can become down the line. Can they contend in the meantime?
"No," a veteran coordinator said. "They will win maybe 10 games, and they will get beat in the playoffs as soon as they have to throw the ball to win."
That was supposed to happen last season, but the Denver defense would not allow it. The Broncos gave up 17.9 points per game, counting playoffs. Manning had a 10-2 starting record despite throwing those 18 picks in his dozen starts. That low statistical bar is where the hope for Denver lies in 2016.
Sanchez as the 2015 Peyton
The chart below compares Manning's stats from his 12 starts last season to the 12 most recent starts for Sanchez, which date to late in the 2013 season with Philadelphia. The comparison suggests Denver could swap in Sanchez and possibly even come out ahead as long as its defense kept the scoring bar low enough.
New York Jets from 2009-2010 despite a 40.9 QBR score that suggested he played about as well as he did while going 4-8 with the Eagles more recently. The Jets scored 22.0 points per game while allowing a Denver-like 17.3 over those two seasons with Sanchez, helping to deliver New York into the AFC Championship Game both years. The Jets couldn't play well enough on defense for long enough to keep winning with Sanchez.
Filling the Peyton vacuum
The 2015 Broncos overcame their offensive deficiencies without disintegrating from within. The massive equity Manning accrued during a record-setting run with the Broncos might have helped them persevere. Sanchez and Lynch have none of that, which is where coaches see a distinction they consider to be a significant variable over the course of a full season.
"Peyton Manning controls the atmosphere of your building, period," the coordinator said. "Mark Sanchez goes with whatever the atmosphere is. There is going to be a lot more placed on the offensive coaches and the head coach to create the atmosphere desired, because it won't come from the quarterback position. Sanchez will be so vastly less than what they are accustomed to."
Matt Schaub was the quarterback, not Manning. He was in Baltimore when Joe Flacco enjoyed the finest regular season of the quarterback's career.
What are the odds?
Osweiler showed no interest in returning to Denver once the Broncos benched him for the playoffs and then let him hit the market. He quickly bolted for Houston to accept a contract featuring $37 million guaranteed over the next two seasons.
Las Vegas is not panicking. Denver's odds for winning the Super Bowl have actually improved from 20-1 in January to 16-1 after the draft, according to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. The Broncos are 3-2 favorites to win the AFC West ahead of Kansas City (8-5), Oakland (7-2) and San Diego (8-1). When it comes to winning the AFC, only New England (3-1), Pittsburgh (4-1) and Cincinnati (7-1) face shorter odds than Denver (8-1) faces in Vegas' eyes.
"They might go 9-7," a veteran defensive coach said. "They are not a defending Super Bowl champion as much as they are a defending get-by, ride-the-defense team. This isn't Seattle or New England."
The Broncos' defense should be formidable once again. The clock ticks while the offense plays catch-up.
Some of the greatest NFL defenses cracked when asked to carry their offenses for extended periods. The 1985 Chicago Bears never made it back to the Super Bowl once injuries to Jim McMahon forced them to play with backup quarterbacks too frequently. The ball-hawking defenses Lovie Smith built in Chicago two decades later reached one Super Bowl with Rex Grossman at quarterback, but never another. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens and 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers won championships with era-defining defenses, but offensive shortcomings derailed their attempts at building dynasties.
"Oakland is going to pick up those wins they don't get, and Kansas City will still be in the same win bracket," the coordinator said. "At least they have the optimism in the building with the second quarterback, the rookie. There is some certainty to where they are going in the future, which is halfway brilliant considering the situation they just went through with Manning and Osweiler. It sucks because you've been a Super Bowl team, but it is the best they could do."
