Contract Macro Trends

[Merlin]

Not sure what to title this concept so went with the above. This is something that's been bubbling in my mind for a while, the basic idea that paying players introduces its own risk, the risk of money rotting the competitive hunger of said players. And this is not some rare thought or anything I realize but it's also not something that is typically looked at on its own merits. Typically these things are viewed on a case by case basis and by doing things like analyzing where they went wrong on scheme fit, injury history, etc.

What I wonder about, though, is to what extent teams are aware of these numbers and how they strategize to overcome them. For example in citing the above if you were to say paying players results in let's say a 40% Quit Rate, which would be the percentage that players say fuck it I'm paid, I've arrived, homey's gonna take it easy now. I'm sure teams have those numbers. And how do those numbers equate to the other major sports. I would think those percentages are pretty close btw, even in different sports, because you're dealing with human nature. But they would be interesting to see that's for sure. No idea what the rate actually is either. But I do suspect it's quite high and as a result teams have to be focused on this stuff as a matter of self preservation. Do they go into background elements in a guy's history and draw parallels after the fact in terms of finding the "why" the signing went wrong, i.e. trying to unearth connections that might give them insight into avoiding them later?

Also what about guys who are coming off a big paycheck. Some of them will be the types who fell into Quit Rate. Of those Quit Rate types how many bounce back once they're back under a regular contract. Is there a potential sweet spot there like you see with Head Coaches who fall back to coordinator positions (where they tend to do very well as coordinators). Probably not. But I think about stupid shit like this lol.

Or how about guys who are pissed about their draft position. Let's say guys who fall in the draft well below where they KNOW they should have gone. Do they have a higher Success Rate? Of that group do they produce more Hall types? The only way to know this stuff would be through having access to some inside information that only teams and families and college teams know but it's still interesting to me.

Right now the Rams are viewed as a contender. For contenders there will be a type that just wants to jump onboard for a free ride to a championship. How do you identify them? Not all will have tells or do they. Or do most. Anyway I'm obviously bored here and judging from the length of this drinking way too much coffee lol.

 

[CGI_Ram]

Great post. A post I will need to come back to. Read again.

the percentage that players say fuck it I'm paid

That’s one complicated calculation. It needs to factor many things. But, yeah that sounds like a doable algorithm.

I bet teams have it. How to use that as a predictor? Hmm.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Merlin, switch to decaf, ... or at least adding a large dollop of Bailey's to your brew.

On a more serious note, finding that balance in an athletes psyche' may be difficult to troubleshoot, but multiple interviews of the player as well as friends, family members and former coaches should help lower the percentages, kind of similar to how the FBI might pursue new employees. Since millions of dollars are at stake, you'd think some psychology would be applied by employers during the process, but that may still leave some false/positives. Who ultimately plays for the money as opposed to pride may be just as difficult to pick up on as those players who end up committing domestic violence.
Recalling Spagnuola's 4 pillars philosophy, those values sounded good at first, but in practice, they were disastrous. The process will likely always be hit and miss, but a GM who practices good values himself is probably one step ahead. jmo.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

This is why teams dig so deep on prospects before the draft. Obviously this is also very real with free agency. Years ago on Mike and Mike in the Morning Golic talked about this.

The gist of it is that many guys see it as a destination. Athletes are often goal oriented. They set that one big contract as their goal and work their butts off until the get it and then just quit.

Another thing that goes wrong is ‘My Family’ mentality. The players start at the bottom at every level. Freshman to Seniors in High School for four years. It’s repeated in College. The NFL is the final hurdle. They are rookies and they come into this new family and play there for4-5 years. Then they hit free agency and switch teams and suddenly the magic is gone. They wanted the pay day but they really didn’t want to leave. It all starts to feel like a job. Some never adjust.

This is one reason I love McVay. I hated how Fisher drafted. He put far more value on athleticism than he did football players and character. You could see the results with many of them. As soon as they leave for big contracts they are never the same. But McVay puts a premium on finding guys that love playing football. It’s a requirement. I think it is why they are so successful with mid round to udfa players. It’s also a big reason they have such a good culture on the team. Having an entire team full of 110%ers is contagious. Having an AD is fantastic. Players don’t want to let him down.

I believe the Rams are the same way about free agency and it’s why they don’t recklessly sign players. In fact you often hear Snead say that “He’s a guy we really liked in the draft”. They already vetted these pros love of playing when they were in College. He said that when he picked up Derrick Rivers from the Patriots. Look at the big signings they had. Whitworth, Woods, Sullivan. They were all high character guys. There are only so many of them in each draft. It’s part of why Snead trades back so often. He targets these players then gauges which round they should be picked. It’s puzzling to me why more teams don’t think this way when drafting and signing free agents. I’m glad they don’t. But it’s a concern going forward as so many McVay coaches become head coaches. You have Green Bay targeting the same times. Now the Lions and Chargers are likely to be too.

 

[CGI_Ram]

It’s puzzling to me why more teams don’t think this way when drafting and signing free agents. I’m glad they don’t. But it’s a concern going forward as so many McVay coaches become head coaches. You have Green Bay targeting the same times. Now the Lions and Chargers are likely to be too.

 

[CGI_Ram]

But McVay puts a premium on finding guys that love playing football. It’s a requirement. I think it is why they are so successful with mid round to udfa players. It’s also a big reason they have such a good culture on the team. Having an entire team full of 110%ers is contagious. Having an AD is fantastic. Players don’t want to let him down.

Yeah. Great formula.

This is the draft analytics Brad Holmes was talking about.

 

[bubbaramfan]

In what other job do you pay the person BEFORE he does the work? Especially a job that requires physical labor with a high potential for injury.?