Colin Cowherd on Losing Watkins

[den-the-coach]

C'mon den, you are ignoring what the value of the 2019 3rd rounder is really in 2018. We traded Gaines for Watkins and a 2018 2nd rounder... and now a 2018 4th rounder value after he walked (2018 4th = 2019 3rd). If you are ok with that, then fine. But you minimize the immediate cost by not translating the 2019 value into 2018 value when explaining how little this cost us

The trade ended up being Watkins a 4th (I will give it to @Elmgrovegnome for the value) and a 6th for Gaines and a 2nd. What I'm trying to illustrate is the Rams did factor in they would get a compensatory pick if they could not keep Watkins. You make that deal every time considering how bad the unit was in 2016. My only issue was not being able to extend Jordan because then the Rams could have used the tag on Watkins.

 

[Corbin]

You guys are bringing up we are getting a 3rd comp pick like it’s a guaranteed. It could be a 4th round pick and could potentially be downgraded if we sign some FA’s. Don’t count your chickens before the hatch. ( never used that one before) lol No way to know until next year anyways.

 

[Akrasian]

So a late third is really a fourth? Wouldn't that mean it's really a very early fourth, which I guess would make it a third by the same logic?

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

So a late third is really a fourth? Wouldn't that mean it's really a very early fourth, which I guess would make it a third by the same logic?

If you trade for next year's 1st round pick it is valued as this year's second round pick because of the one year delay. Every pick takes a step back one round when trading. Plus there is a gamble that next year's draft class won't be as good.

Then you have the concept that since there are 32 picks in each round, any pick after the 32nd pick is like a early pick in the next round. So a third round comp pick is like a top off the fourth round pick.

Either way you look at it you get a pick after number pick 96. Rounds are irrelevant when you look at it like that.

 

[Akrasian]

If you trade for next year's 1st round pick it is valued as this year's second round pick because of the one year delay.

Great. So since the Rams traded a future 2nd - they got a year of Watkins before the pick was given up - people should be saying the Rams really traded a third for him? That's much better.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

We could have tagged him, we had the option to keep him for another year. Not so predictable that in the event Joyner would be more important.

Yes. That is what everyone thought would happen. If Joyner had signed then no problem. Tag Sammy for a year. Joyner was deemed more valuable, so that may also put into perspective what the team felt about Sammy's production.

Why not? Doesn't it matter how much value you get in that one year? Does it matter whether the team gets a comp pick also? How about the relative certainty of a veteran you trade for, as opposed to the risk of a rookie?
For what it's worth, the last 5 picks at #55 (the pick traded) were Dalvin Thompson, Tyler Boyd, Maxx Williams, Jeremy Hill, and Vance McDonald. Dalvin (last year's pick) looks promising. The others may have had one good year, and the rest of their careers thus far are mediocre at best.

The Rams got the help they needed, won a division, helped develop their QB, helped Woods and Kupp develop. And they'll likely get a third round pick next year too. And yes, the 3rd is a year delayed. But guess what? The second was a year delayed too. They got Watkins for a year before the pick was due.

I think those who say a year of a player isn't worth a second round pick have an inflated sense of what a second round pick often produces before free agency. The Rams gambled, and the gamble helped them break a cycle of losing, and helped their very expensive QB to go from a joke in the league to a pro bowl alternate

It sounds great when you list second round picks that have flopped. But if you consider how many good players come from round 2 it doesn't. Overall it is fair to say us fans are excited about Snead's drafting under McVay and Phillips. Listing players picked at 55 is not accurate or fair. Snead took Kupp in round 3 for example. I'd rather take my chances with the current regime drafting.

 

[Kevin]

Hmmmm....Future picks are downgraded by one full round, like depreciation or something.

So the 2018 seventh round pick we traded for Derek Carrier last year was really like trading an eighth round pick, which doesn't exist, so at the time of the trade last year, we can say we got Carrier for nothing!

I don't abide by that logic.

Future picks are devalued but not necessarily by a full round, it's subjective between the two trading partners. There is more uncertainty in acquiring a future pick because the team on the receiving end does not know where in that round the pick will be, nor does it know much about the next draft class or even its own draft need a year to 18 months in the future.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Great. So since the Rams traded a future 2nd - they got a year of Watkins before the pick was given up - people should be saying the Rams really traded a third for him? That's much better.

Not exactly. The trade was a few months after the draft. So it is on the same year as this coming draft.

 

[dieterbrock]

Breaking that God awful cycle of losing was the most important thing we did this year. I'd have been ok if they'd given up almost anything just to make us win convincingly the one year, because that starts the ball rolling on the rest of the winning we're fixing to go

Fantastic
I can’t believe the short term memory on some. You create a winning culture by winning games.
The Patriots lost a butt ton of players and coaches this off season and they will reload without worry. Why? Because players will go there to win.
Gladly swap a 2nd rounder for a 3rd/4th next year to make the playoffs and win the division.
Best trade made in a long time imo

 

[dieterbrock]

So a late third is really a fourth? Wouldn't that mean it's really a very early fourth, which I guess would make it a third by the same logic?

Exactly. All depends on the spin put on it.
Kind of like the spin on Fishers coaching record, all those 8-8 seasons. Supporters say they are non losing seasons, detractors call them non winning seasons

 

[Akrasian]

Not exactly. The trade was a few months after the draft. So it is on the same year as this coming draft.

They still got a full season of Watkins before the pick was used. They got the exact same amount of usage out of Watkins before the pick was used as if they had traded it a minute after the league year began. So it was really a third.

Or, as I prefer - call the second a second despite it being delayed a year, and call the comp pick a third even if it is delayed a year.

I can understand devaluing picks for delays - but be consistent, please.

 

[1maGoh]

Not exactly. The trade was a few months after the draft. So it is on the same year as this coming draft.

Yeah, but using the immediate value now of a pick that was traded almost a year ago and using the immediate value now of a pick that we will get in a year or disingenuous. One actually has immediate value but didn't when we traded it, the other is delayed and won't have any value until next year.

Next year the immediate value of that third round pick will be the third round. That value thing is for the trade chart, not reality in building a winning team.

 

[The Ramowl]

Also maybe S&M expected more out of Watkins, which justified the trade at the time, would have been ready to tag him or give him a big contract if he had lived up to their expectations, but changed their minds given his production in 2017 ?
Hindsight is 20/20

I'm not over his multiple non catches (hard catches, but hey, #1WR or not ?) and half assed routes. I don't think he is worth the amount of money he got this year, no regrets

 

[Akrasian]

It sounds great when you list second round picks that have flopped. But if you consider how many good players come from round 2 it doesn't. Overall it is fair to say us fans are excited about Snead's drafting under McVay and Phillips. Listing players picked at 55 is not accurate or fair. Snead took Kupp in round 3 for example. I'd rather take my chances with the current regime drafting.

I listed the last 5 picks in the slot that was traded. Using 2nd rounders picked in the 30s is fundamentally misleading. But what is bizarre is arguing that looking at draft history for the spot is unfair, because the current regime is so good at recognizing value. But if that's the case, then shouldn't you be trusting them on the value they got back from trading the pick? They knew that Watkins was likely to insist on testing the market. They felt that the good of having Watkins in 2017 was worth that. Several of us have listed that good - division title, developing the offense especially Goff, etc. How could Snead and McVay be so good at drafting that you shouldn't look at typical results, but be so bad they had no clue about Watkins likely leaving after one year?

Edit: and since Donald was holding out at the time of the trade, the Rams knew there would be cap issues and a desire to front load his contract, before Gurley and then Goff go free agent.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Yeah, but using the immediate value now of a pick that was traded almost a year ago and using the immediate value now of a pick that we will get in a year or disingenuous. One actually has immediate value but didn't when we traded it, the other is delayed and won't have any value until next year.

Next year the immediate value of that third round pick will be the third round. That value thing is for the trade chart, not reality in building a winning team.

Not my rules. How could I be disingenuous when I am using the NFL system? I am not making it up as I go. SMH

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I listed the last 5 picks in the slot that was traded. Using 2nd rounders picked in the 30s is fundamentally misleading. But what is bizarre is arguing that looking at draft history for the spot is unfair, because the current regime is so good at recognizing value. But if that's the case, then shouldn't you be trusting them on the value they got back from trading the pick? They knew that Watkins was likely to insist on testing the market. They felt that the good of having Watkins in 2017 was worth that. Several of us have listed that good - division title, developing the offense especially Goff, etc. How could Snead and McVay be so good at drafting that you shouldn't look at typical results, but be so bad they had no clue about Watkins likely leaving after one year?

Edit: and since Donald was holding out at the time of the trade, the Rams knew there would be cap issues and a desire to front load his contract, before Gurley and then Goff go free agent.

So if a certain GM isn’t a great drafter but one is then they are equal? No. You are being too general.

Snead gambled and lost. If he could have gotten Joyner to sign he would have franchised Watkins. He wasn’t okay with Sammy leaving. Plus I bet he didn’t account for Sammy not chasing off target balls or quitting on routes. I was just as excited as everyone else when the trade was made, but figured they could get at least two years out of him and McVay could get him turned around mentally. Living in PA I have read enough about Sammy to know he comes with some questions. There was definite risk.

If the trade was a third or fourth for Watkins then no problem. Gaines out played Sammy btw. So 6 months later the trade was not a win. You won’t change my mind.

 

[LACHAMP46]

Bills doing a lot of good things, btw. IMO they keep this stuff up they're going to be winning a lot of games and maybe even giving the Cheatriots a divisional challenge at some point.

yeah...but they need a QB

The Bills get a 2nd round pick and the Rams get a 3rd and had Watkins for a year and the Bills had Gaines for a year

Still doesn't seem equal...or even necessary.

One year of a player isn't worth a second round pick. That is the problem.

Agreed

I think those who say a year of a player isn't worth a second round pick have an inflated sense of what a second round pick often produces before free agency.

IDK....teams are built in the first 3 rounds...

I think the beauty of the Mcvay offense is there is no number 1.

Whoever was the #1 targeted player...is the #1 wr...IMO

The Patriots lost a butt ton of players and coaches this off season and they will reload without worry. Why? Because players will go there to win.

And play with Tom Brady....GOAT...big difference....

We lost Sammy, Tree, Mighty Quinn....and Tru....possibly Sully....Those losses will be felt without adequate replacements. Tru may be the easiest since we've already acquired new talent at CB...

 

[Akrasian]

Not my rules. How could I be disingenuous when I am using the NFL system? I am not making it up as I go. SMH

You're applying it inconsistently though.

The Rams traded a 2nd which counts as a 2nd, even though they traded it before the season, got a full season's value before giving up anything, and it costs them the same as if they had traded it on day 1 of the league year. But when not convenient for your argument future picks don't count as much. Oh, and picks late in the third are really fourths, even though according to the NFL they are thirds. You are picking and choosing which things matter.

I'm willing to say that the Rams traded a 2nd - but they are likely to get a third back in compensation. Because - in fact - that is what the NFL says is the case.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

You're applying it inconsistently though.

The Rams traded a 2nd which counts as a 2nd, even though they traded it before the season, got a full season's value before giving up anything, and it costs them the same as if they had traded it on day 1 of the league year. But when not convenient for your argument future picks don't count as much. Oh, and picks late in the third are really fourths, even though according to the NFL they are thirds. You are picking and choosing which things matter.

I'm willing to say that the Rams traded a 2nd - but they are likely to get a third back in compensation. Because - in fact - that is what the NFL says is the case.

It’s not my fault that you can’t grasp the concept

 

[Akrasian]

Incidentally, @Elmgrovegnome , you never answered - why isn't one year of a player not worth a 2nd round pick? Why doesn't the value that the player produces in one year important? What if the Rams had traded a 2nd for AD's 2017 - would that have been worth it? Why doesn't the help Watkins gave to win the division matter, not to mention how it helped players develop?