Centers

jrry32 · Mar 19, 2017

OldSchool said:
Different than making Lamp a center? No not really but I've mostly thought about him as a Guard in the NFL not a center.

If we draft him, it's to play Center. Cody Whitehair made the same swap last year. It's not a huge deal.

OldSchool · Mar 19, 2017

jrry32 said:
If we draft him, it's to play Center. Cody Whitehair made the same swap last year. It's not a huge deal.

Fair enough I guess I just like Dawkins too much as a Tackle, he's definitely athletic enough to move to Center and strong enough.

jrry32 · Mar 19, 2017

OldSchool said:
Fair enough I guess I just like Dawkins too much as a Tackle, he's definitely athletic enough to move to Center and strong enough.

If you like him too much as a tackle, it's even better reason to move him to Center. Put the best 5 guys on the field.

NERamsFan · Mar 20, 2017

Watching JJ Dielman, the guy looks like a nice midround steal. Would love him in the fourth or fifth round.

Merlin · Mar 21, 2017

8to12 said:
Struggled throughout? I am curious.... how did you arrive at this conclusion?

I watched the centers. Some of them had good day/bad day, he pretty much struggled throughout. Don't recall any day liking what I saw from him.

codeman · Mar 21, 2017

I agree with everyone above that Fuller and Elflein are scary prospects. The center prospects in this class are insanely unathletic and it shows. I saw people here talking about sparq and I think its a good idea to have thresholds with athleticism. Its so hard to become even average when every single player in the league is bigger, stronger, and faster. For offensive line I would say that 15-10th percentile would be the lower limit.
Elflein - 2.2%
Toth - 4.1%
Fuller - 6.4%
Roullier - 6.5%

Asiata is 24th % and Pocic is 22.6%.
Just from watching them play I would be ok with Pocic, Asiata, or Orlosky at center (round 3-4). They have issues, but they each play with a lot of strength and have enough size and athletic ability to function. Pocic reminds me of Brandon Linder and Orlosky of Corey Linsley.
Lucas Crowley and Cam Keizur are intriguing in the later rounds but are not going to start in the near future.

LACHAMP46 · Mar 21, 2017

codeman said:
Asiata is 24th % and Pocic is 22.6%.
Just from watching them play I would be ok with Pocic, Asiata, or Orlosky at center (round 3-4). They have issues, but they each play with a lot of strength and have enough size and athletic ability to function.

Curious....does the centers opponent play into this? I mean, Toth played in the SEC....versus SEVERAL DT's that will be playing on Sunday. He started for 4 years. Like den said, he's graduated in a degree in mechanical engineering. This is the second year we have a shot at one of these types. I can't see any metric that can honestly rate who could be more successful than him in the pros.

codeman · Mar 21, 2017

LACHAMP46 said:
Curious....does the centers opponent play into this? I mean, Toth played in the SEC....versus SEVERAL DT's that will be playing on Sunday. He started for 4 years. Like den said, he's graduated in a degree in mechanical engineering. This is the second year we have a shot at one of these types. I can't see any metric that can honestly rate who could be more successful than him in the pros.

Here is a list of sparq scores (https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/ol/). Sparq only measures athleticism and it is weight/height adjusted. The percentiles are just the average for that position in the NFL, so 50% is the NFL average and very good.
Elflein for example is in the 2.2 percentile so 97.8% of offensive linemen in the league are more athletic. OL are usually the least athletic group so everyone on the defense will have an advantage over him. I'm assuming it would be like a bell curve where most players are around 30-70th percentile because a lot of the top athletic testers are rare (and usually more athlete than football player) and the low testers are at a disadvantage.
Toth's competition and intelligence go in his favour, but his athleticism is concerning.

This has nothing to do with anything, but I wonder if the OL players in college have stronger academic performance than other position groups. It seems like every year there are OL prospects with masters degrees or degrees in STEM fields. I can't imagine playing D1 football and getting a degree in mechanical engineering.

LACHAMP46 · Mar 22, 2017

codeman said:
Elflein for example is in the 2.2 percentile so 97.8% of offensive linemen in the league are more athletic. OL are usually the least athletic group so everyone on the defense will have an advantage over him. I'm assuming it would be like a bell curve where most players are around 30-70th percentile because a lot of the top athletic testers are rare (and usually more athlete than football player) and the low testers are at a disadvantage.
Toth's competition and intelligence go in his favour, but his athleticism is concerning.

I bet centers are compared with other linemen, just like Toth was.....and of course he scores horrible when compared to an elite tackle like...Garrett Bolles.

jrry32 · Mar 22, 2017

codeman said:
I agree with everyone above that Fuller and Elflein are scary prospects. The center prospects in this class are insanely unathletic and it shows. I saw people here talking about sparq and I think its a good idea to have thresholds with athleticism. Its so hard to become even average when every single player in the league is bigger, stronger, and faster. For offensive line I would say that 15-10th percentile would be the lower limit.
Elflein - 2.2%
Toth - 4.1%
Fuller - 6.4%
Roullier - 6.5%

Asiata is 24th % and Pocic is 22.6%.
Just from watching them play I would be ok with Pocic, Asiata, or Orlosky at center (round 3-4). They have issues, but they each play with a lot of strength and have enough size and athletic ability to function. Pocic reminds me of Brandon Linder and Orlosky of Corey Linsley.
Lucas Crowley and Cam Keizur are intriguing in the later rounds but are not going to start in the near future.

codeman said:
Here is a list of sparq scores (https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/ol/). Sparq only measures athleticism and it is weight/height adjusted. The percentiles are just the average for that position in the NFL, so 50% is the NFL average and very good.
Elflein for example is in the 2.2 percentile so 97.8% of offensive linemen in the league are more athletic. OL are usually the least athletic group so everyone on the defense will have an advantage over him. I'm assuming it would be like a bell curve where most players are around 30-70th percentile because a lot of the top athletic testers are rare (and usually more athlete than football player) and the low testers are at a disadvantage.
Toth's competition and intelligence go in his favour, but his athleticism is concerning.

This has nothing to do with anything, but I wonder if the OL players in college have stronger academic performance than other position groups. It seems like every year there are OL prospects with masters degrees or degrees in STEM fields. I can't imagine playing D1 football and getting a degree in mechanical engineering.

den-the-coach · Mar 22, 2017

jrry32 said:
In fact, compare the best Center in the NFL (Travis Frederick) to Chase Roullier (fell into the 6.5 percentile on Sparq):
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=125022&draftyear=2017&genpos=C
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=90293&draftyear=2013&genpos=C

Their numbers are incredibly similar across the board (including height and weight).

Then draft Chase, that will make not only @OldSchool happy, but if he's anything like Frederick we'll all be happy.

codeman · Mar 22, 2017

sparq scores aren't really accessible beyond 3 years ago, but I took the top 20 Cs in the league now and looked at their testing scores.

Travis Frederick DAL - probably below 10th %
Ryan Kalil CAR - great athlete
Ryan Kelly IND - 55th %
Alex Mack ATL - good athlete
Rodney Hudson OAK - probably below 10th %
Maurkice Pouncey PIT - probably below 10th %
Eric Wood BUF - good athl.
Travis Swanson DET - below average
Joe Berger MIN - good athl.
Matt Paradis DEN - good athl.
JC Tretter GB -good athl.
Mitch Morse KC - 85th %
Max Unger NO - below average athl.
Cody Whitehair CHI - 58th %
Weston Richburg NYG - good athl.
Corey Linsley GB - good athl.
Brandon Linder JAX - good athl.
Jason Kelce PHI - insane athlete (99th %)
Ryan Groy BUF - well above average athl.
Mike Pouncey MIA - tested better than his brother (would be above 10th %)

Only 4 of the 20 would even be close to the 10th % or below it. What's interesting is that those 4 are top 10 Cs.
Its not an end all be all, but its something to think about. I would be upset forcing a position and drafting a horrible athlete in rounds 2-3 when there are going to be great players from other positions. I wouldn't really argue with Roullier in round 5, but lesser athletes have a harder hill to climb.
Travis Frederick is insanely strong and it makes up for his athleticism. When he gets his hands on a player its over, his hands are like vice grips. The only C I see that with this year is Orlosky, and its not close to Frederick's strength.

jrry32 · Mar 22, 2017

codeman said:
Only 4 of the 20 would even be close to the 10th % or below it. What's interesting is that those 4 are top 10 Cs.

I don't agree. You didn't give us numbers for most of the guys. You just claimed they were good athletes. I posted a number of these guys. Their numbers were pretty weak.

A good chunk of the top 15 Centers in the NFL (likely over half) would qualify as below average to bad athletes. Sparq is pretty useless for Centers.

Its not an end all be all, but its something to think about. I would be upset forcing a position and drafting a horrible athlete in rounds 2-3 when there are going to be great players from other positions. I wouldn't really argue with Roullier in round 5, but lesser athletes have a harder hill to climb.

I would be disappointed if we forced a position in any round, but Sparq doesn't factor into that. As I demonstrated, it has no predictive power for Centers. In fact, it's possible there's more of a negative correlation than positive correlation.(would need to have a full data-set to test that)

Lesser athletes don't appear to have a problem playing Center.

Travis Frederick is insanely strong and it makes up for his athleticism. When he gets his hands on a player its over, his hands are like vice grips. The only C I see that with this year is Orlosky, and its not close to Frederick's strength.

Orlosky isn't that strong. I'm not a fan of his. He looks like a guy to me. I'd say that Roullier and Elfelin are the two strongest Centers in this class. Elfelin has other issues.

Regardless, I don't agree that Frederick's strength makes up for his athleticism because I wouldn't regard him as insanely strong. He's a strong guy, but I wouldn't call him one of the strongest OLs in the NFL. Like the other top Centers, Frederick is great because he combines polished footwork and hand usage with a high football IQ, a great understanding of angles/position, and a strong lower body. Playing Center is more about mental acuity, technical skill, lower body strength, and body control/balance/flexibility than anything else.

Athleticism just isn't that important at Center. It's a benefit to have, but if a Center doesn't have the other things I mentioned, he's not going to be good at his job. In fact, despite Kelce being an exceptional athlete, his level of play has really dropped off in recent years because he's scheme-limited due to his lack of lower body power.

codeman · Mar 22, 2017

jrry32 said:
I don't agree. You didn't give us numbers for most of the guys. You just claimed they were good athletes. I posted a number of these guys. Their numbers were pretty weak.

A good chunk of the top 15 Centers in the NFL (likely over half) would qualify as below average to bad athletes. Sparq is pretty useless for Centers.

I looked at their athletic charts (for example Groy, https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/ryan-groy). I remember sparq considered 10 yard splits and jumps very highly, so some players have very fast 10 yard times that would put them over the threshold. The majority of guys above were better testers than Havenstein who was like 13th percentile. So I just assumed they were above that as well, I could be wrong.

I would assume just statistically that the average starter at every position would be average athletically since its relative to the other players in their position group.

OL athleticism is less important than say a CB, but it still part of the decision making process. Guys like Jarvis Landry and Travis Frederick can be great pros, but they are incredibly rare compared to the hundreds of players that test out similarly and cannot compete in the NFL.

jrry32 · Mar 22, 2017

codeman said:
OL athleticism is less important than say a CB, but it still part of the decision making process. Guys like Jarvis Landry and Travis Frederick can be great pros, but they are incredibly rare compared to the hundreds of players that test out similarly and cannot compete in the NFL.

The problem is that there's a stronger correlation between success and athleticism at WR than there is at Center. Most of the top Centers are pretty poor athletes compared to the rest of the OL.

It's why I wouldn't pay attention to SPARQ with Centers. It doesn't have predictive power.

StealYoGurley · Mar 23, 2017

I am not a fan of this center class at all. Guys I do like a little more like Efflein and Roullier only have 1 more year of experience playing center than the guys on our roster who we are cross training and have never played center before. Others like Pocic, Toth, and Fuller are JAGs at best IMO. Brown, Wichman, or Donnal could easily be a JAG at center with upside for more without spending a draft pick. IMO the best course of action is signing vet insurance like Sullivan and let him compete with the guards we are cross training at center. The majority of last season Kromer and McVay played tall career guards at center with very good results. I like the potential of the guys we currently have on our roster more than pretty much every center prospect in this class

Centers

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