Carson Wentz vs. Jared Goff: Who is the better pick in the 2016 NFL Draft?
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Elmgrovegnome
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Goff has the better pocket presence and looks to extend play's very consistently. Goff also is much more accurate. His decision making shows how instinctual he is. The Ramsneedto keep him in state.
Wentz is more projection. I think he develops but right now he isn't close to what Goff is when it comes to accuracy or making reads or extending plays. But, that doesn't mean I wouldn't take him. I think both are fine prospects, just one needs more time.
Then Lynch needs more time yet but could end up being the best of the three if his development turns out as hoped.
Cook has the physical tools but does he have the emotional/intellectual make up to get it done? His accuracy is not the best and his inconsistency is worrisome.
I'd take the top three, any of them. Otherwise I would try to get a free agent and take a shot at a later QB like Prescott or Allen.
Wentz is more projection. I think he develops but right now he isn't close to what Goff is when it comes to accuracy or making reads or extending plays. But, that doesn't mean I wouldn't take him. I think both are fine prospects, just one needs more time.
Then Lynch needs more time yet but could end up being the best of the three if his development turns out as hoped.
Cook has the physical tools but does he have the emotional/intellectual make up to get it done? His accuracy is not the best and his inconsistency is worrisome.
I'd take the top three, any of them. Otherwise I would try to get a free agent and take a shot at a later QB like Prescott or Allen.
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Goff is a WCO QB ? I have to disagree. Their "Raid" offense actually has different options of "Play action". (Hmmm, sounds like something the Rams do). If you think Wentz throws the ball downfield better than Goff, how come Goff's Avg per Att is 8.9 to 7.9 for Wentz?
Mackeyser
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I disagree with you on his arm strength. There is a massive difference between getting a ball 50 yards downfield and getting it there with zip.
Watch his wrist DNA rifle (LOL, this site kills me!) in his throwing motion. It takes so much power out of his hips, it's maddening.
His deep ball in the NFL isn't as bad as Pat Haden's... I'm not saying that... but you put him next to Lynch... and you see a MASSIVE contrast. Lynch just gets it downfield like it's meant to get there... NFL Safeties are gonna eat Goff up with that deep ball unless he's REALLY protected by scheme... hence, WCO. He's not going to throw over the top of a defense like Flacco or Cutler.
I'm not the only one saying that, either. Goff can pattern his game after Manning and that's fine. Manning was one of the last QBs to essentially call his own game (or as close to it as we've seen in the last 20 years). We see and hear about Goff's decision making and all that and if that's what Goff is taking after, then great. And Manning NEVER had a big arm, anyway. Which is fine. What made Manning special was placement, timing and his football IQ. Well, and he always seemed to have tons of weapons.
If this were baseball, and I know it ain't, that hitch in Goff's motion would be a HUGE red flag. The power it robs from his hips and the ability to DRIVE the ball puts too much pressure on his shoulder and arm. That can lead to injury. As well, if his hands are as small as they say, then he developed that BAD MOTION to compensate rather than a proper throwing motion. That wrist DNA rifle will expose the ball to strip sacks and with his small hands, there's little he can do to stop it (I'm thinking 9" or maybe less? They said he had small hands. Wentz is said to have pretty big mitts, in the 10" range, which is much bigger and from a pure physics perspective, Stiction (Stiction is the static friction that needs to be overcome to enable relative motion of stationary objects in contact) is then greater for those with larger hand size since they have a larger contact area with which to contact the ball. Thus, it's harder to overcome the static friction and enable relative motion (move the ball) with someone with larger hands.
I'm saying there's a reason Cleveland will go Wentz over Goff and there's a reason we won't trade up for Goff and we'll probably let the 9ers have him...
Plus... the success rate for non-senior QBs in the first round? 3-10. Seniors? 6-10.
If I'm picking in the top 5, it'd have to be blindingly clear for me to take a non-Senior... And Goff isn't blindingly above Wentz. He's just not.
Just like last year. Winston was supposed to be all that, and he seemed to turn the corner, but holy cow. There were worse rookie beginnings, but I dunno that we've seen them because most rookies don't get that much slack. I still don't know that I buy that he's a "Franchise" guy.
Will I root for Goff if we get him? Yep.
And I'll yell my head off for them to fix that damn wrist cocking thing just like I yelled for Chris Long to fix that stutter stepping thing he did out of Virginia (and got screamed at for pointing that out, too, btw).
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Mackeyser
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What is impressive about Goff's average per attempt is the relative lack of protection he had to deal with. Extremely tough and courageous QB in the pocket, great feel for the rush and those things will help him adjust well to the NFL.
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Like this:
View: https://fat.gfycat.com/SilentHarmfulArchaeocete.webm
Throwing the deep ball in the NFL is far more about accuracy and touch than it is arm strength. It's why Philip Rivers was a far better deep ball thrower throughout his career than Cutler. Same with Drew Brees being better than Flacco.
Goff throws a really nice deep ball. Could post a number of examples of him dropping it in the bucket to his WRs...even when they're tightly guarded.
Huh? Since 2010, here are the QBs drafted and their class year:
2010 - Sam Bradford (JR)
2010 - Tim Tebow (SR)
2011 - Cam Newton (JR)
2011 - Christian Ponder (SR)
2011 - Jake Locker (SR)
2011 - Blaine Gabbert (JR)
2012 - Andrew Luck (JR)
2012 - Robert Griffin III (JR)
2012 - Ryan Tannehill (SR)
2012 - Brandon Weeden (SR)
2013 - E.J. Manuel (SR)
2014 - Blake Bortles (JR)
2014 - Johnny Manziel (SO)
2014 - Teddy Bridgewater (JR)
2015 - Jameis Winston (SO)
2015 - Marcus Mariota (JR)
By my count, you have 6 seniors. Of which, only Tannehill has been successful.
The guy that had arguably a better rookie year than Luck?
Mackeyser
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Look, Jrry, I get you're man-crushing on Goff. Makes it hard to have a conversation because it's not really that, it's me conversing and you advocating. I really like Wentz, but I'm not tied to him like you seem to be with Goff. Heck, I'm still not sure we shouldn't just stick with Keenum and see what we have in Mannion.
You post that vid of Goff as if it's proof. Really? You mean the play where the Safety is out of position (either by play design, misread or busted play) and he floats the ball in? That doesn't happen against a good NFL D. Ask Rodney McLeod how he does when that happens.
And that's MANNING before his play dropped off a cliff. So, we're not talking just some scrub QB. Pass was on time to Sanders in exactly the right spot. And Rodney McLeod was ALSO right on time... and lit his behind UP. So, no, I will have to respectfully disagree that Goff's pass against the all powerful defense of AIR FORCE is proof that he can throw over a defense. It says nothing to me of the kind. Says the safety blew the play or was out of position.
As for the Sr/non-Sr thing, I gotta start keeping notes... I keep needing citations and I just don't keep them around. My short term memory is getting worse (daily migraines will do that), but I don't know what the timetable was. I wasn't 2010, tho, I know that much. It went back a ways. I don't know if that's helpful or not to go back further, but it did.
Anyway, my point about Goff's deep ball isn't that he can't EVER throw it. It's that he needs a system that will protect his throws. If he's got a guy singled and that guy has his guy beat, then yeah, Goff can make that throw. Point is that just saying that means we have to ensure the safety can't get over because there's air under that ball. Play action, extra routes... some reason for the Safety not to be over the top. However, sometimes you have to hit the guy BEFORE the Safety gets over. That requires touch AND arm and the hitch in his throwing motion, the wrist cocking thing, just robs him of the deep ball velocity to make that throw IN TRAFFIC.
I don't even care to relitigate Winston. I'll just leave it at that. Every breath spent on Winston, to me is wasted...
You post that vid of Goff as if it's proof. Really? You mean the play where the Safety is out of position (either by play design, misread or busted play) and he floats the ball in? That doesn't happen against a good NFL D. Ask Rodney McLeod how he does when that happens.
And that's MANNING before his play dropped off a cliff. So, we're not talking just some scrub QB. Pass was on time to Sanders in exactly the right spot. And Rodney McLeod was ALSO right on time... and lit his behind UP. So, no, I will have to respectfully disagree that Goff's pass against the all powerful defense of AIR FORCE is proof that he can throw over a defense. It says nothing to me of the kind. Says the safety blew the play or was out of position.
As for the Sr/non-Sr thing, I gotta start keeping notes... I keep needing citations and I just don't keep them around. My short term memory is getting worse (daily migraines will do that), but I don't know what the timetable was. I wasn't 2010, tho, I know that much. It went back a ways. I don't know if that's helpful or not to go back further, but it did.
Anyway, my point about Goff's deep ball isn't that he can't EVER throw it. It's that he needs a system that will protect his throws. If he's got a guy singled and that guy has his guy beat, then yeah, Goff can make that throw. Point is that just saying that means we have to ensure the safety can't get over because there's air under that ball. Play action, extra routes... some reason for the Safety not to be over the top. However, sometimes you have to hit the guy BEFORE the Safety gets over. That requires touch AND arm and the hitch in his throwing motion, the wrist cocking thing, just robs him of the deep ball velocity to make that throw IN TRAFFIC.
I don't even care to relitigate Winston. I'll just leave it at that. Every breath spent on Winston, to me is wasted...
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And that's why I feel so much more strongly than you do about needing a QB. Because I'm convinced all Keenum will bring us is more mediocrity.
I mean the play where Goff throws it 55 yards with zip. You can see the trajectory of that ball. That's not floating or hanging up there.
That's Manning after his neck injury when he had the weakest arm of any starting QB in the NFL.
I didn't post the play to show a safety in the vicinity; I posted the play to show Goff throwing a very long pass that clearly wasn't floating or hanging in the air. He tossed a ball 55 yards in the air with zip and dropped it in the bucket. There are very few throws in the NFL he'll have to make longer than that one.
The problem with going back further and further is that the game has changed so much and early entry in the draft has changed so much. It's rare for QBs to stay through their senior year now. The best QBs typically declare as juniors in today's NFL. So creating a rule or trend off of something that just isn't relevant today doesn't seem like the best policy for me. 10 years ago, you'd have a great point. But in today's NFL, I don't think it's particularly relevant.
I don't agree. It's not about having a Goff love affair. Back when I had a love affair with Bridgewater, I freely admitted that he had a bad deep ball and it was an issue that needed to be corrected.
That's not Goff. He doesn't have a cannon like Wentz but his arm is not weaker than Luck's. He can throw the deep ball. And he throws it well. Has the touch and accuracy. Same things that allow Drew Brees and Philip Rivers to be great deep ball throwers despite not possessing strong arms.
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We all all be able to see Goff's arm in comparison to Cook, at least, because they will be in the same group. Lynch should be in that group too. Wentz will probably be in group 2.
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Well, I don't disagree about a lot of what you said.
I do disagree that the Goff throw you showed had "zip" on it. (not a trivial thing in the offense we're going to run)
If you think that's zip, we need to have a vocabulary summit or something.
Cuz that throw looked just like my five iron... laid up nice at the end... peaked about 40 yards and dropped nicely in the bucket.
Now, if you used that throw to show that he could throw the deep ball with TOUCH, well, hell, man, I couldn't argue with you one bit. And you know what? We haven't had THAT for ages, man. Frankly, just use that pass as an example that he can throw the deep ball with touch. Boom. Done. Lynch can't do that (he strikes me as Jeff George right now without the mental ineptitude). I think Goff does the touch passes a bit better than Wentz. That's an AWESOME trait for a WCO (I know you don't like that, but that's what I see. Dude reminds me a smidge of Montana out there, to be honest.)
But ZIP??? No. Just no. Brett Favre threw with zip. Zip is a word we can define even if not narrowly. That... that wasn't even close to "zippy".
I do disagree that the Goff throw you showed had "zip" on it. (not a trivial thing in the offense we're going to run)
If you think that's zip, we need to have a vocabulary summit or something.
Cuz that throw looked just like my five iron... laid up nice at the end... peaked about 40 yards and dropped nicely in the bucket.
Now, if you used that throw to show that he could throw the deep ball with TOUCH, well, hell, man, I couldn't argue with you one bit. And you know what? We haven't had THAT for ages, man. Frankly, just use that pass as an example that he can throw the deep ball with touch. Boom. Done. Lynch can't do that (he strikes me as Jeff George right now without the mental ineptitude). I think Goff does the touch passes a bit better than Wentz. That's an AWESOME trait for a WCO (I know you don't like that, but that's what I see. Dude reminds me a smidge of Montana out there, to be honest.)
But ZIP??? No. Just no. Brett Favre threw with zip. Zip is a word we can define even if not narrowly. That... that wasn't even close to "zippy".
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I'm looking forward to watching that.
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Mackeyser
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It'd be a helluva lot easier if we knew the disposition of our FAs.
Then we could focus our attention on the Combine. I mean, if we retain most/all of our FAs on D, then I think we make a big play for a QB (Goff or Wentz... maybe Lynch). However, if we lose a fair bit of our D because FA becomes a "It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad Free Agency Period...", then it's very likely we'll just stock up on D in a very, VERY deep D draft (I mean I'm STOKED we got Aaron Donald in 2014... that said, we missed on more than a few WRs in that draft near the top that are already 1k receivers cuz that draft was ridiculous for WR talent)
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I guarantee we draft a WR in the first two rounds. I'm with you on our FA's, but I'm sure we have plan, and B, etc. There are a decent amount of corners, but in the first 3 reds, IMO. We could get a rotational DT at least, through 4 rounds.
Wouldn't be surprised if we take Chris Longs eventual(next year) replacement with our first pick, if Goff, or Wentz are too pricey. So many scenarios....
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So true. I used to think I'd love being a GM.
That was last year. This year, I'm into having my stomach lining intact. And I'm into sleeping more than a parent with a newborn.
So, yeah... the GM thing? They can have it. I'mma sit right over hear and fret a little and hope they figure it out, cuz it looks crazy over there...
That was last year. This year, I'm into having my stomach lining intact. And I'm into sleeping more than a parent with a newborn.
So, yeah... the GM thing? They can have it. I'mma sit right over hear and fret a little and hope they figure it out, cuz it looks crazy over there...
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For a 55 yard throw, that's zip. You can tell with the guys that can't get it there. The ball hangs in the air.
Goff ain't Favre but it still takes an arm to throw a ball that distance with that trajectory.